{"id":26637,"date":"2023-04-22T00:59:52","date_gmt":"2023-04-21T22:59:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=26637"},"modified":"2023-04-21T15:24:50","modified_gmt":"2023-04-21T13:24:50","slug":"5-ekonomickych-katastrof-na-ktere-jsme-byli-predem-upozorneni-a-nyni-se-deji","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/04\/22\/5-ekonomickych-katastrof-na-ktere-jsme-byli-predem-upozorneni-a-nyni-se-deji\/","title":{"rendered":"5 ekonomick\u00fdch katastrof, na kter\u00e9 jsme byli p\u0159edem upozorn\u011bni a nyn\u00ed se d\u011bj\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Na\u0161im politik\u016fm se da\u0159ilo situaci dlouho oddalovat, ale nyn\u00ed se z mnoha na\u0161ich dlouhodob\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f st\u00e1vaj\u00ed probl\u00e9my kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 vyhl\u00eddky pro zbytek roku 2023 jsou extr\u00e9mn\u011b ponur\u00e9.\u00a0\u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 z ekonomick\u00fdch pot\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, se kter\u00fdmi se v sou\u010dasnosti pot\u00fdk\u00e1me, by v\u0161ak nem\u011bla b\u00fdt pro nikoho z n\u00e1s \u0161okem.\u00a0Pravdou je, \u017ee p\u0159ed v\u0161emi t\u011bmito v\u011bcmi jsme byli varov\u00e1ni d\u00e1vno p\u0159edt\u00edm.\u00a0Mnoho nez\u00e1visl\u00fdch hlas\u016f n\u00e1s varovalo, \u017ee extr\u00e9mn\u011b po\u0161etil\u00e1 ekonomick\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed na\u0161ich politik\u016f budou m\u00edt v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 d\u016fsledky, a nyn\u00ed se tyto v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 d\u016fsledky za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed odehr\u00e1vat p\u0159\u00edmo p\u0159ed na\u0161ima o\u010dima.\u00a0N\u00ed\u017ee je p\u011bt ekonomick\u00fdch katastrof, p\u0159ed kter\u00fdmi jsme byli p\u0159edem varov\u00e1ni a nyn\u00ed se d\u011bj\u00ed…<\/strong><\/p>\n

1:<\/strong> <\/span>Byli jsme varov\u00e1ni, \u017ee se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed velk\u00e1 krize komer\u010dn\u00edch nemovitost\u00ed, a te\u010f je to tady.\u00a0Ve skute\u010dnosti jsme pr\u00e1v\u011b byli sv\u011bdky dal\u0161\u00edho masivn\u00edho v\u00fdpadku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k ned\u00e1vn\u00e9mu nap\u011bt\u00ed v bankovn\u00edm sektoru v regionu se n\u00e1lada v odv\u011btv\u00ed komer\u010dn\u00edch nemovitost\u00ed (CRE) v USA \u2013 a zejm\u00e9na v kancel\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9m sektoru \u2013 zm\u011bnila na negativn\u00ed, proto\u017ee investo\u0159i se p\u0159ipravovali na potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed dopad (JPM, Morgan Stanley a Goldman Sachs se v\u0161ichni p\u0159ipojili k pr\u016fvodu pesimist\u016f ), a to zejm\u00e9na proto, \u017ee se na tituln\u00ed strany st\u00e1le dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 nespl\u00e1cen\u00e9 \u00fav\u011bry, proto\u017ee dlu\u017en\u00edci \u010del\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm n\u00e1klad\u016fm na obsluhu dluhu a refinancov\u00e1n\u00ed je v\u00fdrazn\u011b obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee dluh CRE ve v\u00fd\u0161i 400 miliard USD m\u00e1 splatnost jen letos.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Posledn\u00ed titulek, kter\u00fd podn\u011bcuje obavy z potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed krize CRE, se t\u00fdk\u00e1 fondu vlastn\u011bn\u00e9ho gigantem CRE Brookfield, kter\u00fd nespl\u00e1c\u00ed hypot\u00e9ku ve v\u00fd\u0161i 161,4 milionu dolar\u016f na 12 kancel\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch budov ve Washingtonu, DC.<\/span><\/cite>Podle agentury Bloomberg byla p\u016fj\u010dka p\u0159evedena na poskytovatele speci\u00e1ln\u00edch slu\u017eeb, kter\u00fd bude s dlu\u017en\u00edkem spolupracovat na dosa\u017een\u00ed dohody p\u0159ed vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm a ur\u010den\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho postupu.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

2:<\/strong> <\/span>Byli jsme varov\u00e1ni, \u017ee dojde k rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9mu propou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, proto\u017ee se zhor\u0161uj\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech.\u00a0Bohu\u017eel se to te\u010f d\u011bje v\u0161ude kolem n\u00e1s.\u00a0\u00da\u010detn\u00ed firma Ernst & Young v pond\u011bl\u00ed ozn\u00e1mila, \u017ee propust\u00ed tis\u00edce vysoce placen\u00fdch zam\u011bstnanc\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ernst & Young v pond\u011bl\u00ed ozn\u00e1mila, \u017ee zru\u0161\u00ed zhruba 3000 pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst v USA, aby \u010delila posun\u016fm v popt\u00e1vce a \u201enadm\u011brn\u00e9 kapacit\u011b\u201c v ur\u010dit\u00fdch oblastech podnik\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed p\u0159edstavuje m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 5 % celkov\u00e9 pracovn\u00ed s\u00edly americk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti.\u00a0EY popsala ru\u0161en\u00ed pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst jako \u201esou\u010d\u00e1st ka\u017edodenn\u00edho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na\u0161eho podnik\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c a uvedla, \u017ee to nebylo zp\u016fsobeno ned\u00e1vn\u00fdm selh\u00e1n\u00edm spole\u010dnosti p\u0159i implementaci glob\u00e1ln\u00edho rozd\u011blen\u00ed.<\/span><\/cite>3:<\/strong> <\/span>Byli jsme varov\u00e1ni, \u017ee nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed korpor\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhov\u00e1 bublina ve sv\u011btov\u00e9 historii je na spadnut\u00ed a nyn\u00ed korporace za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed spl\u00e1cet sv\u00e9 dluhy v rozsahu, kter\u00fd by n\u00e1s v\u0161echny m\u011bl hluboce znepokojit.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00edce spole\u010dnost\u00ed na cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b nespl\u00e1celo sv\u00e9 platby v prvn\u00edch t\u0159ech m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch tohoto roku ne\u017e v kter\u00e9mkoli jin\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed od konce roku 2020, kdy byly spole\u010dnosti st\u00e1le paralyzov\u00e1ny omezen\u00edmi, kter\u00e1 m\u011bla zastavit \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed Covidu.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Ratingov\u00e1 agentura Moody’s v \u00fatern\u00ed zpr\u00e1v\u011b uvedla, \u017ee 33 spole\u010dnost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 hodnotila, v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed nesplatilo dluh.\u00a0To je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 od posledn\u00edho \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2020, kdy nespl\u00e1celo 47 spole\u010dnost\u00ed.\u00a0T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 polovina, tedy 15 spole\u010dnost\u00ed, za posledn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc nespl\u00e1cela, co\u017e je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed hodnota od prosince 2020.<\/span><\/cite>Mezi firmy, kter\u00e9 neusp\u011bly, pat\u0159\u00ed Silicon Valley Bank, kter\u00e1 se zhroutila v b\u0159eznu, jej\u00ed holdingov\u00e1 spole\u010dnost SVB Financial Group a Signature Bank.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

4:<\/strong> <\/span>Byli jsme varov\u00e1ni, \u017ee v roce 2023 zaznamen\u00e1me dramatick\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst bankrot\u016f, a p\u0159esn\u011b to se nyn\u00ed d\u011bje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po\u010det bankrot\u016f ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech vzrostl v b\u0159eznu ji\u017e t\u0159et\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc v \u0159ad\u011b nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d v\u0161emi hlavn\u00edmi pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdmi odv\u011btv\u00edmi.\u00a0Podle spole\u010dnosti Epiq Bankruptcy, poskytovatele dat, technologi\u00ed a slu\u017eeb pro konkurzn\u00ed soudy v USA, bylo za posledn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc vyhl\u00e1\u0161eno celkem 42 368 nov\u00fdch bankrot\u016f.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

To je o 17 procent v\u00edce z 36 068 pod\u00e1n\u00ed v b\u0159eznu 2022 a nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed po\u010det m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch bankrot\u016f od dubna 2021.<\/span><\/cite>\u00dadaje od S&P Global Market Intelligence ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee v b\u0159eznu bylo pod\u00e1no 71 ozn\u00e1men\u00ed o bankrotu firem, co\u017e je n\u00e1r\u016fst z 58 v p\u0159edchoz\u00edm m\u011bs\u00edci.\u00a0Jedn\u00e1 se o nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed \u00fahrn od \u010dervence 2020 a \u010dtvrt\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc n\u00e1r\u016fstu v \u0159ad\u011b.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

5:<\/strong> <\/span>Byli jsme varov\u00e1ni, \u017ee zbytek sv\u011bta nakonec americk\u00fd dolar odm\u00edtne, a nyn\u00ed \u201ede-dolarizace\u201c prob\u00edh\u00e1 \u201edechberouc\u00edm\u201c tempem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dolar ztr\u00e1c\u00ed sv\u016fj rezervn\u00ed status rychleji, ne\u017e se obecn\u011b myslelo, proto\u017ee mnoho analytik\u016f ignorovalo lo\u0148sk\u00e9 divok\u00e9 v\u00fdkyvy sm\u011bnn\u00e9ho kurzu, \u0159ekl Stephen Jen.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Pod\u00edl dolaru na glob\u00e1ln\u00edch rezerv\u00e1ch klesal za posledn\u00ed rok desetkr\u00e1t rychleji, ne\u017e je pr\u016fm\u011br za posledn\u00ed dv\u011b desetilet\u00ed, proto\u017ee \u0159ada zem\u00ed hledala alternativy pot\u00e9, co rusk\u00e1 invaze na Ukrajinu vyvolala sankce, p\u00ed\u0161\u00ed Jen a jeho kolegyn\u011b Joana Freire pro Eurizon SLJ. Capital Ltd.\u00a0v pozn\u00e1mce.\u00a0Po o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed o v\u00fdkyvy sm\u011bnn\u00e9ho kurzu ztratil dolar od roku 2016 asi 11 % sv\u00e9ho pod\u00edlu na trhu a od roku 2008 se zdvojn\u00e1sobil, uvedli oba.<\/span><\/cite>Dolar utrp\u011bl v roce 2022 ohromuj\u00edc\u00ed pokles sv\u00e9ho pod\u00edlu na trhu rezervn\u00edch m\u011bn, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b kv\u016fli p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e9mu uplat\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed sankc\u00ed,\u201c napsali Jen a Freire.\u00a0\u201eMimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed p\u0159ijat\u00e1 USA a jejich spojenci proti Rusku znepokojila velk\u00e9 rezervn\u00ed zem\u011b\u201c, z nich\u017e v\u011bt\u0161inu tvo\u0159\u00ed rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se ekonomiky takzvan\u00e9ho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho jihu, \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed auto\u0159i.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Bohu\u017eel jsme pouze v ran\u00fdch f\u00e1z\u00edch tohoto ekonomick\u00e9ho kolapsu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Obecn\u00e1 populace za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 ch\u00e1pat, \u017ee se v\u011bci ud\u011blaly stra\u0161n\u011b \u0161patn\u011b, a pr\u00e1v\u011b zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fd pr\u016fzkum CNBC zjistil, \u017ee Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 \u201enikdy nep\u0159em\u00fd\u0161leli o ekonomice tak negativn\u00edm zp\u016fsobem\u201c, jako v tuto chv\u00edli.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uprost\u0159ed p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed inflace, vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb a obav z recese se Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 nikdy k ekonomice nevyjad\u0159ovali negativn\u011bji ne\u017e v nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ekonomick\u00e9m pr\u016fzkumu CNBC All-America Economic Survey.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Rekordn\u00edch 69 % ve\u0159ejnosti m\u00e1 negativn\u00ed n\u00e1zor na ekonomiku, a to jak nyn\u00ed, tak i v budoucnu, co\u017e je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed procento v 17let\u00e9 historii pr\u016fzkumu.<\/span><\/cite>I v nejtemn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch dnech roku 2008 a 2009 byli Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 ohledn\u011b budoucnosti ekonomiky optimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e nyn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159em\u00fd\u0161lej o tom.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jsme opravdu ve velk\u00e9m pr\u016f\u0161vihu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b bude chv\u00edli trvat, ne\u017e se tato nov\u00e1 ekonomick\u00e1 krize pln\u011b rozvine.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale je ofici\u00e1ln\u011b tady.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce budou ekonomickou bolest\u00ed, co\u017e zp\u016fsob\u00ed v cel\u00e9 na\u0161\u00ed spole\u010dnosti ohromn\u00e9 \u200b\u200bot\u0159esy.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Na\u0161im politik\u016fm se da\u0159ilo situaci dlouho oddalovat, ale nyn\u00ed se z mnoha na\u0161ich dlouhodob\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":26638,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[59,3232,371],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26637"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26637"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26637\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26638"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26637"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26637"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26637"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}