{"id":26523,"date":"2023-04-20T01:00:40","date_gmt":"2023-04-19T23:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=26523"},"modified":"2023-04-19T14:59:56","modified_gmt":"2023-04-19T12:59:56","slug":"co-se-stane-kdyz-dolar-padne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/04\/20\/co-se-stane-kdyz-dolar-padne\/","title":{"rendered":"Co se stane, kdy\u017e dolar padne?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Velk\u00e9 zem\u011b se v posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech obr\u00e1tily z\u00e1dy k americk\u00e9mu dolaru, co\u017e vyvolalo pochybnosti o roli dolaru, kterou ve sv\u011bt\u011b dlouhodob\u011b dominuje.\u00a0P\u0159ed osmi t\u00fddny to byly jen vyd\u011bd\u011bnci jako \u00cdr\u00e1n nebo Rusko, kte\u0159\u00ed se sna\u017eili dedolarizovat dolar.\u00a0Nyn\u00ed je to Braz\u00edlie, Francie a dokonce Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie \u2013 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed pil\u00ed\u0159e desetilet\u00ed star\u00e9ho \u201epetrodolarov\u00e9ho\u201c uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pokud dolar ztrat\u00ed svou pozici glob\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed m\u011bny, bude to pro americkou ekonomiku katastrofa.\u00a0Katastrofa pro americk\u00fd lid, na jeho\u017e z\u00e1dech byl 80 let budov\u00e1n status rezervy.\u00a0A vystav\u00ed miliardy cizinc\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed byli po desetilet\u00ed tyranizov\u00e1ni dolarem, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu podvodu v historii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dolar v ohro\u017een\u00ed<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Na konci b\u0159ezna Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie ozn\u00e1mila, \u017ee bude uv\u00e1d\u011bt ceny ropy v \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch j\u00fcanech.\u00a0Dokonce i CNN vyj\u00e1d\u0159ila znepokojen\u00ed nad vz\u00e1cn\u00fdm projevem situa\u010dn\u00edho pov\u011bdom\u00ed, zat\u00edmco Fox \u017evanil o \u201ev\u00fdmarsk\u00e9\u201c hyperinflaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dolar je nespornou sv\u011btovou rezervn\u00ed m\u011bnou od 40. let 20. stolet\u00ed.\u00a0Stav rezervn\u00ed m\u011bny vypad\u00e1 na pap\u00ed\u0159e dob\u0159e: M\u016f\u017eete vytisknout stohy zelen\u00e9ho pap\u00edru a ciz\u00ed zem\u011b v\u00e1m na opl\u00e1tku poskytnou skv\u011bl\u00e9 v\u011bci, jako jsou toustova\u010de, luxusn\u00ed auta a m\u011bd\u011bn\u00e9 doly.\u00a0Probl\u00e9m je, kdo m\u00e1 prosp\u011bch \u2013 kdo dostane zaplaceno, kdy\u017e cizinci prahnou po zelen\u00e9 knize?<\/span><\/p>\n

Bohu\u017eel to nejsou Ameri\u010dan\u00e9, ale ti, kdo tisknou pen\u00edze: Fed, tedy st\u00e1tn\u00ed pokladna, kter\u00e9 p\u0159ed\u00e1vaj\u00ed sv\u00e9 neopr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u011b nabyt\u00e9 zisky, a \u2013 uhodli jste spr\u00e1vn\u011b \u2013 Wall Street.\u00a0Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159edstavte si, \u017ee by cizinci necht\u011bli dolary.\u00a0Fed a banky mohly tisknout jen m\u00e1lo, proto\u017ee tisk velk\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed by vedl k inflaci a voli\u010di by je vyhodili.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud ale cizinci cht\u011bj\u00ed velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed dolar\u016f, Fed a banky mohou vytisknout ekvivalentn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1stku.\u00a0Je to jako \u0159eka tekouc\u00ed do pokladny a \u0159eka tekouc\u00ed k cizinc\u016fm.\u00a0N\u00e1dr\u017e z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 stabiln\u00ed a voli\u010di se nebou\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale v\u0161imn\u011bte si, kam \u0161ly zisky.\u00a0Tok k cizinc\u016fm ne\u0161el k n\u00e1m, dr\u017eitel\u016fm dolaru – my jsme n\u00e1dr\u017e;\u00a0jsme nezm\u011bn\u011bni.\u00a0Zisky \u0161ly p\u0159\u00edmo p\u0159es n\u00e1s ke zdroji toku: americk\u00e9mu ministerstvu financ\u00ed a Wall Street.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee, stejn\u011b jako zbytek na\u0161eho zn\u00e1m\u00e9ho finan\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu, je to podvod.\u00a0Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee t\u011b\u017e\u00ed ze statutu rezervy, ale zisky byly vys\u00e1ty a p\u0159eneseny na lidi, kte\u0159\u00ed navrhli institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed vyko\u0159is\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9mu \u0159\u00edk\u00e1me finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vstupte do V\u00fdmaru<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

No, tady je probl\u00e9m.\u00a0Co kdy\u017e cizinci najednou u\u017e nebudou cht\u00edt dolary?<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 jim \u010c\u00edna plat\u00ed za prodej ropy v j\u00fcanech, nebo se Fed zbl\u00e1znil a vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velkou inflaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Popt\u00e1vka se zmen\u0161uje, dolar za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 znehodnocovat a cizinci se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee se jejich \u00faspory a firemn\u00ed fondy zten\u010duj\u00ed. Vyd\u00e1vaj\u00ed\u00a0se z dolaru. Ze za\u010d\u00e1tku trochu, pak v\u00edc a v\u00edc, jak se to zrychluje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed je proud cizinc\u016f obr\u00e1cen\u00fd a proud\u00ed zp\u011bt do n\u00e1dr\u017ee.\u00a0Dolar se hrout\u00ed.\u00a070 let ti\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed pen\u011bz Fedem a Wall Street se vrac\u00ed jako tsunami uh\u00e1n\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed v rokli.\u00a0Hovo\u0159\u00edme o dvoucifern\u00e9 inflaci za n\u011bkolik let, p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud to pokaz\u00ed, status rezervn\u00ed m\u011bny by se mohl uk\u00e1zat jako past, absolutn\u00ed katastrofa pro americk\u00fd lid.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak\u00e9 jsou f\u00e1ze dedolarizace?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Co se tedy stane, kdy\u017e dolar padne?<\/span><\/p>\n

Za prv\u00e9, cizinci u\u017e tolik dolar\u016f nepot\u0159ebuj\u00ed.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee existuj\u00ed dolary nav\u00edc, kter\u00e9 nikdo nechce.\u00a0V d\u016fsledku toho cena dolaru kles\u00e1 \u2013 oslabuje se.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zpo\u010d\u00e1tku k tomu doch\u00e1z\u00ed pomalu a pot\u00e9 nab\u00edr\u00e1 na rychlosti \u2013 postupn\u00fd sp\u011bch sm\u011brem k v\u00fdjezd\u016fm.\u00a0To proto, \u017ee prvn\u00ed, kdo odejde, ztrat\u00ed jen m\u00e1lo, ale \u010d\u00edm d\u00e9le budou \u010dekat, t\u00edm v\u00edce ztrat\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdo ponese n\u00e1klady, kdy\u017e se dolar st\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1le bezcenn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm?\u00a0Jednodu\u0161e: Ameri\u010dan\u00e9.\u00a0Jedin\u00fdmi lidmi na sv\u011bt\u011b, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou skute\u010dn\u011b povinni pou\u017e\u00edvat americk\u00fd dolar, a to d\u00edky obskurn\u00edmu z\u00e1konu p\u0159ijat\u00e9mu v roce 1862 jako v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 nouzov\u00e9 opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 trv\u00e1 ji\u017e 151 let.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 tedy nemaj\u00ed na v\u00fdb\u011br: pokud sv\u00e9 dolary nevym\u011bn\u00ed za zlato, bitcoiny nebo kozy, p\u016fjdou s lod\u00ed ke dnu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co se d\u011bje s t\u011bmito Ameri\u010dany?\u00a0Klesaj\u00edc\u00ed dolar zvy\u0161uje cenu v\u0161eho, co p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed do Ameriky.\u00a0Ale tak\u00e9 \u017eene nahoru cenu v\u0161eho obchodovan\u00e9ho na sv\u011btov\u00fdch trz\u00edch.\u00a0Tedy suroviny a dov\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 komponenty, kter\u00e9 poh\u00e1n\u011bj\u00ed americk\u00e9 tov\u00e1rny a poh\u00e1n\u011bj\u00ed americk\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitele.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za prv\u00e9, ceny benz\u00ednu, topn\u00e9ho oleje a potravin by raketov\u011b vzrostly – v\u0161echny ceny na sv\u011btov\u00e9m trhu.\u00a0To plat\u00ed i pro l\u00e9ky na p\u0159edpis, proto\u017ee \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 pl\u00ed\u017eivou sev\u0159en\u00ed d\u00edky na\u0161\u00ed idiotsk\u00e9 p\u0159ehnan\u00e9 regulaci \u2013 a to v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b plat\u00ed o v\u0161ech spot\u0159ebn\u00edch produktech, kter\u00fdm dominuje \u010c\u00edna: st\u0159elili jsme se do nohy a te\u010f se to vrac\u00ed a kou\u0161e n\u00e1s.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00e1le drah\u00e9 suroviny a ceny vstup\u016f ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed cel\u00fd dodavatelsk\u00fd \u0159et\u011bzec.\u00a0Zvy\u0161uj\u00ed ceny v jednom odv\u011btv\u00ed za druh\u00fdm \u2013 auta, stavebn\u00ed materi\u00e1ly jako ocel nebo beton, oble\u010den\u00ed, n\u00e1bytek, televize, po\u010d\u00edta\u010de a l\u00e9ka\u0159sk\u00e9 vybaven\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pry\u010d jsou doby, kdy jste si mohli dovolit luxusn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed \u2013 te\u010f pro n\u011bj mus\u00edte pracovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed ud\u00e1lost: kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9 toky<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A pak za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 hlavn\u00ed ud\u00e1lost: kapit\u00e1l proud\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e jsou cizinci nerv\u00f3zn\u00ed, prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed nejen dolary, ale i aktiva v dolarech.\u00a0Za\u010dn\u011bme t\u00edm nejlikvidn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm: akciemi, dluhopisy a st\u00e1tn\u00edmi dluhopisy.\u00a0S t\u011bmi se snadno obchoduje \u2013 akcie IBM se prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed snadn\u011bji ne\u017e tchajwansk\u00e1 tov\u00e1rna ve Wisconsinu \u2013 a proto se prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed jako prvn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Asi 40 % americk\u00fdch akci\u00ed vlastn\u00ed cizinci a tak\u00e9 asi t\u0159etinu podnikov\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f. Kdy\u017e mimozem\u0161\u0165an\u00e9 za\u010dnou prchat, oboj\u00ed se zhrout\u00ed. To by mohlo sn\u00ed\u017eit va\u0161ich 401 tis\u00edc t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 na polovinu a vytla\u010dit firemn\u00ed n\u00e1klady na p\u016fj\u010dky do nep\u0159edstaviteln\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161in.<\/span><\/p>\n

To by vedlo k masov\u00fdm bankrot\u016fm na vrcholu vlny bankrot\u016f, kterou ji\u017e Fed spustil, aby zastavil inflaci, kterou vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale to nen\u00ed v\u0161e: t\u0159etinu dluhopis\u016f americk\u00e9ho ministerstva financ\u00ed vlastn\u00ed cizinci \u2013 dluhopisy v hodnot\u011b p\u0159es 8 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f.\u00a0Pokud je cizinci za\u010dnou vyhazovat, bu\u010f to p\u0159isp\u011bje k dluhov\u00e9 slu\u017eb\u011b americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy o potenci\u00e1ln\u011b stovky miliard dolar\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b.\u00a0Nebo, co\u017e je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, bude Fed nucen zakro\u010dit a skoupit ve\u0161kerou zahrani\u010dn\u00ed popt\u00e1vku a p\u0159idat do ekonomiky dal\u0161\u00ed biliony.<\/span><\/p>\n

To by p\u0159es noc posunulo inflaci zp\u011bt k dvoucifern\u00fdm hodnot\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Existuj\u00ed zp\u016fsoby, jak tomu zabr\u00e1nit.\u00a0Ale vzhledem k \u0161a\u0161kovsk\u00e9 show Washingtonu o op\u011btovn\u00e9m zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed dluhov\u00e9ho stropu a jejich posedlosti sankcemi, kter\u00e9 odvracej\u00ed ciz\u00ed zem\u011b od dolaru, nen\u00ed Washington v pozici, aby v\u00e1\u017en\u011b uva\u017eoval o tom, co by bylo zapot\u0159eb\u00ed k \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed t\u00e9to lodi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ztr\u00e1ta statusu rezervn\u00ed m\u011bny by po\u0161kodila americkou ekonomiku a americk\u00fd lid.\u00a0\u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 zem\u011b nepot\u0159ebuje status rezervn\u00ed m\u011bny \u2013 koneckonc\u016f z toho nemaj\u00ed prosp\u011bch lid\u00e9.\u00a0Ale jako kdy\u017e lezete na \u00fates bez vybaven\u00ed, jakmile jste v polovin\u011b cesty, je nejlep\u0161\u00ed se nepustit.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Velk\u00e9 zem\u011b se v posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech obr\u00e1tily z\u00e1dy k americk\u00e9mu dolaru, co\u017e vyvolalo pochybnosti o…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":13596,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[4740,1324,426,683,371],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26523"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26523"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26523\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13596"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26523"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26523"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26523"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}