{"id":26461,"date":"2023-04-19T00:59:04","date_gmt":"2023-04-18T22:59:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=26461"},"modified":"2023-04-18T17:19:54","modified_gmt":"2023-04-18T15:19:54","slug":"opec-saudove-se-uz-neboji-usa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/04\/19\/opec-saudove-se-uz-neboji-usa\/","title":{"rendered":"OPEC: Sa\u00fadov\u00e9 se u\u017e neboj\u00ed USA"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u0160okov\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby ropy z kv\u011btna, kter\u00e9 OPEC+ ozn\u00e1mil v ned\u011bli, v podstat\u011b znamen\u00e1, \u017ee se osm kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch zem\u00ed OPEC rozhodlo spojit s\u00edly s Ruskem, aby sn\u00ed\u017eily t\u011b\u017ebu ropy, a signalizuj\u00ed, \u017ee OPEC a OPEC+ nyn\u00ed maj\u00ed op\u011bt kontrolu nad trhem s ropou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Roli Krysa\u0159e zde nehraje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 zem\u011b produkuj\u00edc\u00ed ropu.\u00a0Kr\u00e1sa na tom je, \u017ee Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie a sedm dal\u0161\u00edch velk\u00fdch zem\u00ed OPEC se ne\u010dekan\u011b rozhodly podpo\u0159it rusk\u00e9 snahy a jednostrann\u011b omezit produkci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco osm zem\u00ed OPEC hovo\u0159\u00ed o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed o jeden milion barel\u016f denn\u011b od kv\u011btna do konce roku, Rusko svou dobrovolnou \u00fapravu, kter\u00e1 za\u010dala v b\u0159eznu, prodlou\u017e\u00ed na stejn\u00e9 obdob\u00ed o 500 000 barel\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud nyn\u00ed p\u0159id\u00e1te \u00fapravy t\u011b\u017eby, o kter\u00fdch ji\u017e OPEC+ rozhodl, celkov\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1stka dodate\u010dn\u00fdch dobrovoln\u00fdch \u00faprav t\u011b\u017eby \u010din\u00ed neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fdch 1,6 milionu b\/d (barel\u016f\/den).<\/span><\/p>\n

Co vedlo k tomuto v\u00fdvoji?\u00a0V podstat\u011b, jak p\u0159edpov\u00eddalo mnoho analytik\u016f, z\u00e1padn\u00ed sankce na ruskou ropu vytvo\u0159ily naru\u0161en\u00ed a anom\u00e1lie na trhu s ropou, naru\u0161ily citliv\u00fd ekosyst\u00e9m nab\u00eddky a popt\u00e1vky, vyvolan\u00fd neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u011b riskantn\u00edm rozhodnut\u00edm G7 na p\u0159\u00edkaz ministerstva financ\u00ed USA bylo pos\u00edleno zaveden\u00ed cenov\u00e9ho stropu pro prodej rusk\u00e9 ropy do zahrani\u010d\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Provokativn\u00ed kroky Bidenovy administrativy k pravideln\u00e9mu uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed ropy z americk\u00fdch strategick\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch rezerv za \u00fa\u010delem \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed cen ropy v z\u00e1jmu americk\u00fdch spot\u0159ebitel\u016f a udr\u017een\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00edch tlak\u016f pod kontrolou se nav\u00edc uk\u00e1zaly jako ur\u00e1\u017eka pro zem\u011b produkuj\u00edc\u00ed ropu, jejich\u017e ekonomiky jsou ve velk\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti. na p\u0159\u00edjmech z v\u00fdvozu ropy.<\/span><\/p>\n

OPEC+ popisuje sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby jako \u201epreventivn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed na podporu stability trhu s ropou\u201c.\u00a0Po rozhodnut\u00ed OPEC+ analytici o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee ceny ropy v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti porostou a tlak na z\u00e1padn\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky poroste kv\u016fli mo\u017en\u00e9mu r\u016fstu inflace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na rozhodnut\u00ed OPEC+ je zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed to, \u017ee rozhodnut\u00ed Ruska sn\u00ed\u017eit t\u011b\u017ebu ropy do konce roku jednomysln\u011b podpo\u0159ili hlavn\u00ed arab\u0161t\u00ed producenti.\u00a0Nez\u00e1visl\u00e1, ale na\u010dasovan\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed u\u010dinily Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, Kuvajt, Ir\u00e1k, Al\u017e\u00edrsko, Om\u00e1n a Kazachst\u00e1n, zat\u00edmco Rusko potvrdilo sv\u016fj z\u00e1m\u011br prodlou\u017eit sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby o 500 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b, kter\u00e9 za\u010dalo v b\u0159eznu. koncem b\u0159ezna bude prodlou\u017eena do konce roku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je p\u0159\u00edzna\u010dn\u00e9, \u017ee tato prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed u\u010dinili ze v\u0161ech nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed producenti ropy OPEC, kte\u0159\u00ed vy\u010derpali sv\u00e9 st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed kv\u00f3ty.\u00a0Jin\u00fdmi slovy, v\u00fdrobn\u00ed st\u0159ih bude skute\u010dn\u00fd a nejen na pap\u00ed\u0159e.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b bankovn\u00ed krize v USA a Evrop\u011b p\u0159im\u011bla OPEC+ k intervenci.\u00a0A\u010dkoli to Washington bagatelizuje, ceny ropy Brent v b\u0159eznu poprv\u00e9 od roku 2021 klesly na 70 dolar\u016f za barel, proto\u017ee n\u011bkolik bank v USA vyhl\u00e1silo bankrot a Credit Suisse, jedna z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00fdch bank, m\u00e1lem zem\u0159ela.\u00a0Tyto ud\u00e1losti podn\u00edtily obavy o stabilitu z\u00e1padn\u00edho bankovn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu a obavy z recese ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed popt\u00e1vku po rop\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi USA a Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed poroste s t\u00edm, jak vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny ropy podpo\u0159\u00ed inflaci, a je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce znesnadn\u00ed Feder\u00e1ln\u00edmu rezervn\u00edmu syst\u00e9mu USA dos\u00e1hnout rovnov\u00e1hy mezi zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb a zachov\u00e1n\u00edm finan\u010dn\u00edch a ekonomick\u00fdch podm\u00ednek pro nalezen\u00ed stability.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b tak mus\u00ed b\u00fdt Bidenova administrativa zu\u0159iv\u00e1, \u017ee praktick\u00e1 spolupr\u00e1ce mezi Ruskem a zem\u011bmi OPEC, zejm\u00e9na Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed, pokra\u010duje navzdory Z\u00e1padu na\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9mu cenov\u00e9mu stropu pro ruskou ropu a rozhodnut\u00ed Moskvy jednostrann\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eit produkci v b\u0159eznu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bidenova administrativa m\u00e1 v\u0161ak omezenou sadu mo\u017enost\u00ed, jak reagovat na p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd krok OPEC+: zaprv\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed ropy ze strategick\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch rezerv;\u00a0za druh\u00e9, tlak na americk\u00e9 producenty, aby zv\u00fd\u0161ili dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkci ropy;\u00a0za t\u0159et\u00ed, podp\u016frn\u00e1 legislativa, kter\u00e1 by USA umo\u017enila u\u010dinit dramatick\u00fd krok \u017ealovat OPEC;\u00a0nebo za \u010dtvrt\u00e9, omezen\u00ed v\u00fdvozu benzinu a nafty z USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby OPEC+ je v rozporu s po\u017eadavky Z\u00e1padu na zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby ropy, p\u0159esto\u017ee byly uvaleny sankce na rusk\u00fd export ropy a plynu.\u00a0Na druhou stranu p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek ropy z Ruska p\u0159isp\u011blo k r\u016fstu inflace v zem\u00edch EU.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA po\u017e\u00e1daly arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu o zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed produkce ropy.\u00a0Ti to v\u0161ak odm\u00edtli, proto\u017ee se domn\u00edvali, \u017ee ekonomick\u00e1 aktivita na z\u00e1pad\u011b je nedostate\u010dn\u00e1 a \u017ee oproti o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed existuj\u00ed jasn\u00e9 zn\u00e1mky recese.<\/span><\/p>\n

V d\u016fsledku sankc\u00ed proti Rusku \u010del\u00ed Evropa slo\u017eit\u00e9 situaci inflace a t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 recese zn\u00e1m\u00e9 jako stagflace.\u00a0Ve skute\u010dnosti adaptabiln\u00ed a agiln\u00ed OPEC+ spr\u00e1vn\u011b vyhodnotil situaci a uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee je p\u0159ipraven jednat s p\u0159edstihem.\u00a0V dob\u011b, kdy se sv\u011btov\u00e1 ekonomika pot\u00fdk\u00e1 se zdrav\u00fdm r\u016fstem, je popt\u00e1vka po rop\u011b relativn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e1 a pro udr\u017een\u00ed cenov\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hy m\u00e1 smysl sni\u017eovat produkci ropy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedin\u00e1 v\u011bc, na kterou si z\u00e1padn\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i mohou st\u011b\u017eovat, je, \u017ee omezen\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby ropy OPEC+ p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed ve \u0161patnou dobu.\u00a0Ale t\u011b\u017ekou situaci z\u00e1padn\u00edch ekonomik nelze vinit na OPEC+, proto\u017ee existuj\u00ed inherentn\u00ed probl\u00e9my, kter\u00e9 nyn\u00ed vyplouvaj\u00ed na povrch.\u00a0Nap\u0159\u00edklad rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 protesty ve Francii proti penzijn\u00edm reform\u00e1m nebo rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 st\u00e1vky ve Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii za vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed mzdy ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee v t\u011bchto ekonomik\u00e1ch existuj\u00ed hlubok\u00e9 struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed probl\u00e9my, kter\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, jak se zd\u00e1, nejsou schopny zvl\u00e1dnout.<\/span><\/p>\n

Geopoliticky tento krok OPEC+ p\u0159i\u0161el po sch\u016fzce mezi rusk\u00fdm vicepremi\u00e9rem Alexandrem Novakem a sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00fdm ministrem energetiky princem Abdulazizem bin Salm\u00e1nem 16. b\u0159ezna v Rij\u00e1du, aby projednali spolupr\u00e1ci na trhu s ropou.\u00a0Je proto \u0161iroce vn\u00edm\u00e1no jako zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00ed vztah\u016f mezi Ruskem a Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud se nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 OPEC v kv\u011btnu p\u0159ipoj\u00ed k jednostrann\u00e9mu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby Ruska, vr\u00e1t\u00ed se v dubnu 2020 pom\u011br kv\u00f3t a pod\u00edlu na trhu mezi \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edky dohody OPEC+ na \u00farove\u0148, kdy byla dohoda uzav\u0159ena.<\/span><\/p>\n

Velkou ot\u00e1zkou je, jak by Moskva mohla t\u011b\u017eit z rozhodnut\u00ed OPEC+.\u00a0R\u016fst cen ropy prosp\u00edv\u00e1 zejm\u00e9na Rusku.\u00a0Jednodu\u0161e \u0159e\u010deno, sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed produkce ut\u00e1hne trh s ropou, \u010d\u00edm\u017e pom\u016f\u017ee Rusku z\u00edskat lep\u0161\u00ed ceny za ropu, kterou prod\u00e1v\u00e1.\u00a0Zadruh\u00e9, nov\u00e9 \u0161krty tak\u00e9 potvrzuj\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko je st\u00e1le ned\u00edlnou a d\u016fle\u017eitou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed skupiny zem\u00ed produkuj\u00edc\u00edch ropu, navzdory pokus\u016fm Z\u00e1padu je izolovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u0159et\u00ed, d\u016fsledky ned\u011bln\u00edho rozhodnut\u00ed jsou o to v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee na rozd\u00edl od p\u0159edchoz\u00edch \u0161krt\u016f ze strany skupiny OPEC+ na vrcholu pandemie nebo loni v \u0159\u00edjnu celosv\u011btov\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka po rop\u011b nyn\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e roste, ne\u017e kles\u00e1, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 siln\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed v \u010c\u00edn\u011b. .<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed OPEC+ tak posiluje sa\u00fadsko-ruskou energetickou alianci t\u00edm, \u017ee sjednocuje jejich objemy produkce a stav\u00ed je na stejnou \u00farove\u0148.\u00a0To je facka pro Washington.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nenechte se m\u00fdlit, je to dal\u0161\u00ed sign\u00e1l nov\u00e9 \u00e9ry, ve kter\u00e9 se Sa\u00fadov\u00e9 u\u017e neboj\u00ed USA, proto\u017ee \u201ep\u00e1ka\u201c OPEC je na stran\u011b Rij\u00e1du.\u00a0Sa\u00fadov\u00e9 d\u011blaj\u00ed jen to, co mus\u00ed, a B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm nem\u00e1 v t\u00e9to v\u011bci \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 slovo.\u00a0Je evidentn\u00ed, \u017ee ned\u00e1vno zah\u00e1jen\u00e1 transformace region\u00e1ln\u00ed a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dynamiky nab\u00edr\u00e1 na s\u00edle.\u00a0Budoucnost petrodolaru se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l nejist\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

MK Bhadrakumar<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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\u0160okov\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby ropy z kv\u011btna, kter\u00e9 OPEC+ ozn\u00e1mil v ned\u011bli, v podstat\u011b znamen\u00e1, \u017ee…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9081,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[831,310,22,1012,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26461"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26461"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26461\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26462,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26461\/revisions\/26462"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9081"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26461"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26461"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26461"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}