{"id":26309,"date":"2023-04-16T06:00:16","date_gmt":"2023-04-16T04:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=26309"},"modified":"2023-04-16T06:00:16","modified_gmt":"2023-04-16T04:00:16","slug":"zbynek-fiala-koruna-trha-rekordy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/04\/16\/zbynek-fiala-koruna-trha-rekordy\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Koruna trh\u00e1 rekordy"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u010cesk\u00e1 koruna v p\u00e1tek dos\u00e1hla kurzu 23,21 CZK\/EUR a byla tak nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed za patn\u00e1ct let. Euro zlevnilo b\u011bhem t\u0159\u00ed let o v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dty\u0159i koruny. Nenapl\u0148uj\u00ed se opakovan\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, \u017ee v\u00edt\u011bzn\u00fd n\u00e1stup \u010desk\u00e9 m\u011bny u\u017e skon\u010dil a vrac\u00edme se k oslaben\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kurz koruny v\u00a0posledn\u00edch dnech soustavn\u011b posiloval \u2013 na grafech to m\u00e1 trochu matouc\u00ed sklon k\u0159ivky dol\u016f, ale to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee za euro dost\u00e1v\u00e1me m\u00e9n\u011b a m\u00e9n\u011b. Z\u00a0p\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edho r\u00e1na je zaznamen\u00e1na hodnota 23,21 CZK\/EUR. B\u011bhem dne pak p\u0159i\u0161la m\u00edrn\u00e1 korekce, ale po\u0159\u00e1d je d\u016fvod k\u00a0oslav\u00e1m. Korunu zved\u00e1 \u00farokov\u00fd rozd\u00edl v\u016f\u010di euroz\u00f3n\u011b, ale ten sam\u00fd jev zase dus\u00ed ekonomiku. Z\u00a0\u0159ad bankovn\u00ed rady se oz\u00fdvaj\u00ed hlasy osam\u011bl\u00fdch \u201ejest\u0159\u00e1b\u016f\u201c, kter\u00e9 by r\u00e1dy zvy\u0161ovaly z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbu nad st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch 7 %, ale maj\u00ed nejsp\u00ed\u0161 hodnotu pouh\u00e9 slovn\u00ed intervence, jak\u00e9hosi varov\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee to \u010cNB s\u00a0tou pevnou korunou mysl\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u011b. Absolutn\u00ed kurzov\u00fd rekord z\u00a0roku 2008, kter\u00fd \u010din\u00ed 22,88 ka\u010dek za euro, je tak mo\u017en\u00e1 na dosah.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.patria.cz\/zpravodajstvi\/5408598\/rozbresk-ceska-inflace-poklesla-k-15-jestrabi-komentare-z-cnb-pomahaji-korune.html<\/a><\/p>\n

Vyplatilo se, \u017ee nov\u00fd guvern\u00e9r \u010cNB Ale\u0161 Michl zvolil tu nejsch\u016fdn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed cestu a ponechal \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby tam, kde byly nastaveny, p\u0159esto\u017ee je s\u00e1m pova\u017eoval za zbyte\u010dn\u011b vysok\u00e9. Boj o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed by stejn\u011b nevyhr\u00e1l, a tak dal p\u0159ednost tomu, \u017ee uvolnil cestu posilov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bny. T\u00edm p\u016fsob\u00ed na ceny energi\u00ed a pohonn\u00fdch hmot, kter\u00e9 se odv\u00edjej\u00ed od\u00a0dov\u00e1\u017een\u00fdch surovin. N\u011bkolikr\u00e1t korun\u011b pomohl intervenc\u00ed na devizov\u00e9m trhu, co\u017e m\u011blo vedlej\u0161\u00ed blahod\u00e1rn\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek v\u00a0postupn\u00e9m rozpou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti nesmysln\u011b vysok\u00fdch rezerv, dal\u0161\u00edho d\u011bdictv\u00ed po p\u0159edch\u016fdc\u00edch. Od lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho l\u00e9ta sn\u00ed\u017eil rezervy \u010cNB skoro o p\u011btinu, o 600 miliard korun na sou\u010dasn\u00e9 3 biliony korun.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.cnb.cz\/cs\/statistika\/platebni_bilance_stat\/devizove_rezervy\/drs_rada.htm<\/a><\/p>\n

\u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka je tak v\u00a0tuto chv\u00edli jednou z\u00a0m\u00e1la funguj\u00edc\u00edch instituc\u00ed na\u0161\u00ed republiky. To nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, co zat\u00edm ud\u011blala, bylo, \u017ee ned\u011blala nic a nenechala se dotla\u010dit ke zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, p\u0159esto\u017ee inflace, zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0potravin\u00e1ch, je opravdu astronomick\u00e1. Skoro se ani nechce v\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee ceny mouky stouply o\u00a032,6\u00a0%, vep\u0159ov\u00e9ho masa o\u00a034,0\u00a0%, polotu\u010dn\u00e9ho trvanliv\u00e9ho ml\u00e9ka o\u00a045,2\u00a0%, vajec o\u00a075,5\u00a0%, margar\u00ednu a\u00a0ostatn\u00edch rostlinn\u00fdch tuk\u016f o\u00a036,3\u00a0%, zeleniny o\u00a029,9\u00a0% a\u00a0cukru dokonce o\u00a097,6\u00a0%. Jen\u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka t\u011b\u017eko m\u016f\u017ee bojovat s\u00a0t\u011bmito d\u011bsiv\u00fdmi cenami t\u00edm, \u017ee je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edc ut\u00e1hne kohoutky a p\u0159inut\u00ed ob\u010dany nej\u00edst.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.czso.cz\/csu\/czso\/cri\/indexy-spotrebitelskych-cen-inflace-brezen-2023<\/a><\/p>\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee na ceny potravin maj\u00ed vliv energie a hnojiva, kter\u00e9 rusk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka vy\u0161ponovala mnohon\u00e1sobn\u011b v\u00fd\u0161e. Ale je to opravdu v\u00e1lka, co tu m\u00e1 rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed vliv? N\u011bmecko bylo na rusk\u00e9m plynu stejn\u011b tot\u00e1ln\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e9 jako my, ale kdy\u017e porovn\u00e1me ceny potravin u n\u00e1s a v\u00a0N\u011bmecku, jak to ukazuje t\u0159eba popul\u00e1rn\u00ed ope\u010den\u00e1 klob\u00e1sa z tr\u017ei\u0161\u0165, tak u soused\u016f ji koup\u00edte za polovinu. \u010cesko se zm\u00edt\u00e1 v\u00a0monopoln\u00edm prost\u0159ed\u00ed, proto je u n\u00e1s inflace nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed z\u00a0EU. To je ale \u00fakol vl\u00e1dy, s\u00a0t\u00edm centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka nic nezm\u016f\u017ee. Pevn\u00e1 koruna m\u016f\u017ee zm\u00edrnit tlak cen zahrani\u010dn\u00edch vstup\u016f, ale nem\u016f\u017ee si poradit se zneu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00edm monopoln\u00ed situace doma.<\/p>\n

Posledn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj \u010desk\u00e9 m\u011bny je opravdu pozoruhodn\u00fd. Jeden z\u00a0nej\u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00edch ekonomick\u00fdch psavc\u016f na internetu, Luk\u00e1\u0161 Kovanda, kter\u00fd p\u016fsob\u00ed tak\u00e9 na \u0160ev\u010d\u00edkov\u011b N\u00e1rodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 fakult\u011b V\u0160E, si v\u0161iml je\u0161t\u011b jednoho sk\u00f3re \u2013 \u010desk\u00e1 koruna je v\u00a0tuto chv\u00edli evropsk\u00fdm \u0161ampi\u00f3nem, proto\u017ee jako jedna z\u00a0m\u00e1la pos\u00edlila od rusk\u00e9 intervence na Ukrajin\u011b. V\u00a0podobn\u00e9 situaci je v\u00a0Evrop\u011b tak\u00e9 \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00fd frank, ale koruna b\u011bhem t\u00e9to doby pos\u00edlila i v\u016f\u010di \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9 m\u011bn\u011b! Pouze p\u011bt m\u011bn na sv\u011bt\u011b m\u00e1 pozitivn\u00ed v\u00fdsledek za\u00a0toto obdob\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Dolar ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0koncem \u00fanora 2021 m\u00edrn\u011b ztratil, ale to nen\u00ed cel\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va. Zpo\u010d\u00e1tku toti\u017e posiloval, proto\u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka je pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v\u00fdhodn\u00e1. Otev\u0159elo se jim evropsk\u00e9 odbyti\u0161t\u011b pro zkapaln\u011bn\u00fd zemn\u00ed plyn a Evropa byla p\u0159inucena k\u00a0tot\u00e1ln\u00ed obm\u011bn\u011b zbran\u00ed, samoz\u0159ejm\u011b za americk\u00e9. Posiluj\u00edc\u00ed trend dolaru v\u0161ak skon\u010dil loni v\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, kdy dolar byl chvilkov\u011b siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e euro, a vyst\u0159\u00eddal jej stejn\u011b prudk\u00fd trendov\u00fd pokles, zat\u00edm o deset procent.<\/p>\n

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V\u00edt\u011bzn\u00e1 cesta koruny od b\u0159ezna 2020<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Korun\u011b zat\u00edm pom\u00e1h\u00e1 kladn\u00fd \u00farokov\u00fd diferenci\u00e1l, \u010dili skute\u010dnost, \u017ee na\u0161e \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby jsou v\u00fd\u0161e ne\u017e jinde. V\u00fdnos dvoulet\u00e9ho dluhopisu je v\u00a0\u010cesku 5,51 %, zat\u00edmco v\u00a0euroz\u00f3n\u011b je tento dluhopis s\u00a0v\u00fdnosem jen 3,01 %. Rozd\u00edl je skoro dvojn\u00e1sobek, 2,5 %. Kdybychom v\u0161ak brali jen sign\u00e1ly finan\u010dn\u00edho trhu, \u010desk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby p\u016fjdou sp\u00ed\u0161e dol\u016f. \u010cesk\u00fd v\u00fdnosov\u00e1 k\u0159ivka m\u00e1 inverzn\u00ed sklon, to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 sazby jsou vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e dlouhodob\u00e9. T\u00edm n\u00e1m hl\u00e1s\u00ed, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e9 vysok\u00e9 sazby dlouho nevydr\u017e\u00ed. T\u0159\u00edm\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed sazba PRIBOR 3M je na 7,20 %, ale v\u00fdnos desetilet\u00e9ho dluhopisu je n\u011bkde na 4,50 %. V\u00fdvoj del\u0161\u00edch sazeb je te\u010f dost neklidn\u00fd, ale je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee u\u017e jsou za vrcholem.<\/p>\n

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https:\/\/www.cnb.cz\/cs\/menova-politika\/zpravy-o-menove-politice\/Zprava-o-menove-politice-zima-2023\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Hor\u0161\u00ed to bude s\u00a0platebn\u00ed bilanc\u00ed, ve kter\u00e9 se se\u010dte chab\u00fd v\u00fdsledek zahrani\u010dn\u00edho obchodu, loni byl v\u00a0rekordn\u00edm schodku 200 miliard korun, a soustavn\u00fd odliv dividend na \u00farovni 300 miliard korun. P\u0159idejme rekordn\u00ed zadlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je prov\u00e1zeno prudk\u00fdm zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu. Tohle je vizitka neschopn\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy.<\/p>\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee ob\u010das vypukne spor, komu \u017ee ten siln\u00fd kurz koruny slou\u017e\u00ed. Export\u00e9\u0159i mohou b\u011bdovat, \u017ee siln\u00e1 koruna jim zvy\u0161uje dom\u00e1c\u00ed n\u00e1klady, proto\u017ee i kdy\u017e t\u0159eba zam\u011bstnanc\u016fm plat\u00ed po\u0159\u00e1d stejn\u011b, v\u00a0eurech je to v\u00edc a v\u00edc. A z\u00a0exportn\u00edho prodeje za stejn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed eur maj\u00ed zase po\u0159\u00e1d m\u00e9n\u011b korun. Nebyla by lep\u0161\u00ed ka\u010dka za pakatel, jak se o to usilovalo za Singera a Rusnoka?<\/p>\n

Odpov\u011b\u010f zn\u00ed, nebyla. Kdysiv\u00e1, p\u0159ed d\u00e1vn\u00fdmi \u010dasy, u\u017e to bylo t\u0159icet let, slab\u00e1 koruna p\u0159edstavovala jeden z pol\u0161t\u00e1\u0159\u016f, kter\u00fd zm\u00edr\u0148oval skok smrti do tr\u017en\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed. Dal\u0161\u00edm byly levn\u00e1 pr\u00e1ce, levn\u00e1 energie, n\u00edzk\u00e9 dan\u011b, ignorov\u00e1n\u00ed dopad\u016f na \u017eivotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed a povolen\u00ed kr\u00e1st pro ty nejobratn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Jen\u017ee po t\u0159iceti letech povalov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0pol\u0161t\u00e1\u0159\u00edch jsme si vyslou\u017eili pov\u011bst ekonomiky s\u00a0n\u00edzkou p\u0159idanou hodnotou, ekonomiky t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 neschopn\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 a technologick\u00e9 transformace, kterou proch\u00e1z\u00ed okoln\u00ed sv\u011bt. Tady u\u017e n\u00e1m ani slab\u00e1 koruna nepom\u016f\u017ee. Siln\u00e1 koruna v\u0161ak ano, proto\u017ee zlevn\u00ed technologick\u00e9 dovozy, kter\u00e9 jsou pro posun do vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch hodnotov\u00fdch pater zapot\u0159eb\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ani to nen\u00ed v\u0161echno. Pokud m\u00e1me zm\u011bny dos\u00e1hnout, zem\u011b pot\u0159ebuje odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed strategii a n\u00e1stroje jak\u00fdmi ji realizovat, jako je hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 a da\u0148ov\u00e1 politika. A ve vl\u00e1d\u011b by m\u011bl b\u00fdt aspo\u0148 n\u011bkdo, kdo zhruba tu\u0161\u00ed, co to znamen\u00e1. Ten by pak mohl kolegy pou\u010dit na ve\u010dern\u00edch bytov\u00fdch semin\u00e1\u0159\u00edch. Pokud ne, pak o tu slnou korunu zase rychle p\u0159ijdeme.<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u010cesk\u00e1 koruna v p\u00e1tek dos\u00e1hla kurzu 23,21 CZK\/EUR a byla tak nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed za patn\u00e1ct let….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1907,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,59,433,90],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26309"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26309"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26309\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1907"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}