{"id":26161,"date":"2023-04-14T01:03:33","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T23:03:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=26161"},"modified":"2023-04-13T19:38:39","modified_gmt":"2023-04-13T17:38:39","slug":"jiri-paroubek-jedna-spatna-zprava-v-ekonomice-stiha-druhou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/04\/14\/jiri-paroubek-jedna-spatna-zprava-v-ekonomice-stiha-druhou\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Jedna \u0161patn\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va v ekonomice st\u00edh\u00e1 druhou"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Krizov\u00e9 momenty, kter\u00e9 p\u016fsob\u00ed na \u010deskou ekonomiku, se zat\u00edm nem\u011bn\u00ed. Je to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b a z n\u00ed plynouc\u00ed vysok\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 cen p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161iny komodit pro \u010desk\u00fd zpracovatelsk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Po z\u00e1sahu OPEC+, v\u00a0jeho\u017e d\u016fsledku doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed denn\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby ropy o milion barel\u016f, doch\u00e1z\u00ed k n\u00e1r\u016fstu cen ropy na sv\u011btov\u00fdch trz\u00edch. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee tyto ceny porostou siln\u011bji nad 80 dolar\u016f za jeden barel a v\u00a0t\u00e9to poloze se udr\u017e\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bjakou dobu. Znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee po poklesu cen pohonn\u00fdch hmot u n\u00e1s v b\u0159eznu m\u016f\u017ee doj\u00edt op\u011bt k\u00a0jejich r\u016fstu. Tak\u017ee faktor, kter\u00fd te\u010f v b\u0159eznu p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011b ovliv\u0148oval pokles inflace, m\u016f\u017ee nabrat opa\u010dn\u00fd sm\u011br.<\/p>\n

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\u010cNB odhaduje pro leto\u0161ek pokles \u010desk\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u011b o 0,5%. Odhaduje inflaci pod 12%, ale propo\u010dty inflace byly v \u010cNB konstruov\u00e1ny bez zapo\u010dten\u00ed \u201enezn\u00e1m\u00fdch\u201c. Pokud ov\u0161em v\u00a0druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b roku dojde k\u00a0r\u016fstu sazeb DPH u \u0159ady v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch polo\u017eek, bude to znamenat op\u011bt zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00edho tlaku. A bude to dal\u0161\u00ed faktor, kter\u00fd bude p\u016fsobit na sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b \u010desk\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f. Bohu\u017eel, v\u00a0souhrnu tohoto a p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edho roku dojde k\u00a0poklesu re\u00e1ln\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 mzdy zam\u011bstnanc\u016f o 20 \u2013 25%. Pokud bude schv\u00e1lena zm\u011bna sazeb DPH v\u00a0pojet\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsme se dozv\u011bd\u011bli v\u00a0tomto t\u00fddnu, i kdy\u017e p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m, \u017ee ne v\u00a0tak drastick\u00e9 variant\u011b, bude to op\u011bt znamenat dopad do inflace. Z\u00a0\u010cNB odhadovan\u00fdch necel\u00fdch 12% inflace se m\u016f\u017eeme op\u011bt vy\u0161plhat s\u00a0inflac\u00ed vysoko nad 15%. Ministerstvo financ\u00ed (MF) sice zve\u0159ejnilo (povinn\u011b) optimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odhad, ne\u017eli \u010cNB. Ale o v\u00edce ne\u017e 0,1% se neodv\u00e1\u017eila meziro\u010dn\u00ed \u201er\u016fst\u201c hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed odhadnout.<\/p>\n

Prost\u011b vl\u00e1d\u011b se poda\u0159ilo vytvo\u0159it cel\u00fd konglomer\u00e1t t\u011b\u017eko \u0159e\u0161iteln\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f v ekonomice a k\u00a0tomu je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vlivy, kter\u00e9 situaci je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1le zhor\u0161uj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Inflace v\u00a0\u010cesku v\u00a0b\u0159eznu poklesla z\u00a0\u00fanorov\u00fdch 16,7% na b\u0159eznov\u00fdch 15%. Alespo\u0148 tak to \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 \u010cS\u00da. Ale to, co je nejpodstatn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a v\u00a0z\u00e1sad\u011b je to velmi negativn\u00ed jev, u potravin, nam\u00edsto p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9ho poklesu cen, pokra\u010doval dal\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst. Meziro\u010dn\u011b doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0r\u016fstu cen potravin na hodnotu kolem 24%. A ob\u00e1v\u00e1m se, \u017ee pokud bychom vybrali ty pro b\u011b\u017en\u00fd \u017eivot nejpodstatn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed potraviny, \u017ee by tento n\u00e1r\u016fst byl je\u0161t\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Z\u00a0polo\u017eek, kter\u00e9 p\u016fsobily na sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed inflace v\u00a0b\u0159eznu, to byly ceny energi\u00ed, imputovan\u00e9 n\u00e1jemn\u00e9, pohonn\u00e9 hmoty a sez\u00f3nn\u00ed slevy v\u00a0rekreaci a kultu\u0159e. Po opat\u0159en\u00ed OPEC+, kter\u00e9 znamen\u00e1 r\u016fst cen ropy na sv\u011btov\u00fdch trz\u00edch, se d\u0159\u00edve nebo pozd\u011bji prom\u00edtne toto zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cen ropy i ve zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed na\u0161ich cen pohonn\u00fdch hmot a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b i energi\u00ed. Mimochodem, nap\u0159. OECD, ani\u017e by znal z\u00e1m\u011bry \u010desk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy na zm\u011bny DPH ve II. pololet\u00ed, odhaduje pr\u016fm\u011brnou inflaci u n\u00e1s v\u00a0tomto roce na 13%. Lze tedy o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee inflace m\u016f\u017ee dos\u00e1hnout, pokud vl\u00e1da skute\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ikro\u010d\u00ed k\u00a0\u00faprav\u00e1m sazeb DPH, a\u017e p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161e. V\u017edy si toti\u017e na n\u011bkter\u00e9m stupni dodavatelsk\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce n\u011bkdo \u0159ekne, \u017ee je dobr\u00e9 ceny zaokrouhlit, kdy\u017e u\u017e tedy doch\u00e1z\u00ed k r\u016fstu DPH \u2013 samoz\u0159ejm\u011b sm\u011brem nahoru.<\/p>\n

Vl\u00e1da nen\u00ed v\u016fbec schopna \u0159e\u0161it velmi v\u00e1\u017enou fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed situaci. Struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed dluh st\u00e1tu v\u00a0tuto chv\u00edli p\u0159esahuje 250 mld. K\u010d. Vl\u00e1da sice vyhl\u00e1sila sv\u016fj z\u00e1m\u011br sn\u00ed\u017eit v\u00fddaje st\u00e1tu o 70 mld. K\u010d, ale n\u011bjak nev\u00ed, jak na to. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee schodek leto\u0161n\u00edho st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu ve v\u00fd\u0161i 295 mld. K\u010d nebude dodr\u017een. A \u017ee st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det letos doklou\u017ee ke schodku ve v\u00fd\u0161i 350 \u2013 400 mld. K\u010d.<\/p>\n

Vl\u00e1da se \u010din\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00a0jedn\u00e9 v\u011bci. Zah\u00e1jila redukci ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch slu\u017eeb (pobo\u010dky po\u0161t a pracovi\u0161t\u011b ber\u0148\u00e1k\u016f), ale to p\u0159inese do st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu pouze miniaturn\u00ed sumy pen\u011bz. Zato po d\u016fchodc\u00edch, kter\u00fdm vl\u00e1da zkrouhla vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed penz\u00ed, si tak vl\u00e1da znep\u0159\u00e1tel\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed po\u010detn\u00e9 vrstvy obyvatel. Jist\u011b nikoho nebude t\u011b\u0161it, kdy\u017e bude nucen chodit na po\u0161tu na del\u0161\u00ed vzd\u00e1lenost \u017ee sv\u00e9ho bydli\u0161t\u011b a vyst\u00e1t tam del\u0161\u00ed fronty. A tot\u00e9\u017e plat\u00ed pro ber\u0148\u00e1ky.<\/p>\n

Vl\u00e1da si sama vyrobila velk\u00fd medi\u00e1ln\u00ed probl\u00e9m s\u00a0\u00fanikem p\u0159ipravovan\u00fdch zm\u011bn sazebn\u00edku DPH. A zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee dan\u011b budou velk\u00fdm t\u00e9matem p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch t\u00fddn\u016f. Je st\u00e1le z\u0159ejm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee vl\u00e1da chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed pen\u00edze ve st\u00e1tn\u00edm rozpo\u010dtu bude cht\u00edt vyt\u0159epat z\u00a0\u0161irok\u00fdch vrstev obyvatelstva. A je\u0161t\u011b k\u00a0tomu d\u0159\u00edve nebo pozd\u011bji se objev\u00ed \u00favahy o prodeji n\u011bkter\u00fdch cenn\u00fdch aktiv st\u00e1tu jako je Budvar, mo\u017en\u00e1 i n\u011bjak\u00e9 nemocnice apod.. T\u00edm, \u017ee ODS hlasovala p\u0159ed v\u00edce ne\u017e dv\u011bma lety pro zru\u0161en\u00ed superhrub\u00e9 mzdy (co\u017e samo o sob\u011b bylo spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed, ale nebylo doprov\u00e1zeno adekv\u00e1tn\u00ed \u00fapravou dan\u011b z\u00a0p\u0159\u00edjmu zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00ed zhruba stejn\u00fd v\u00fdb\u011br dan\u00ed), co\u017e p\u0159ipravilo st\u00e1t ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u011b o zhruba 100 mld. K\u010d rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, si sama vytvo\u0159ila obrovsk\u00fd rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd probl\u00e9m. ODS se tak dost\u00e1v\u00e1 do situace, o kter\u00e9 snili n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed jej\u00ed \u010deln\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 v\u00a0minul\u00fdch letech: \u201eNa tyto ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 slu\u017eby nem\u00e1me, a proto je budeme muset privatizovat\u201c…<\/p>\n

Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee jsme bl\u00edzko toho, aby se st\u00e1t za\u010dal zbavovat sv\u00fdch vysoce bonitn\u00edch aktiv. Jen mi unik\u00e1, co nastane po tom, a\u017e se str\u017een\u00e9 pen\u00edze za tato aktiva ve st\u00e1tn\u00edm rozpo\u010dtu utrat\u00ed. Pokud bych cht\u011bl charakterizovat hospoda\u0159en\u00ed st\u00e1tu v\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b jako tureck\u00e9, nejsp\u00ed\u0161 bych t\u00edm urazil Turky. Je to prost\u011b smutn\u00e9 p\u0159edstaven\u00ed neum\u011btel\u016f.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

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Krizov\u00e9 momenty, kter\u00e9 p\u016fsob\u00ed na \u010deskou ekonomiku, se zat\u00edm nem\u011bn\u00ed. Je to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00e1lka na…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17506,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[59,1203,683,371],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26161"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26161"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26161\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17506"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26161"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}