{"id":26040,"date":"2023-04-13T01:00:50","date_gmt":"2023-04-12T23:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=26040"},"modified":"2023-04-12T14:51:33","modified_gmt":"2023-04-12T12:51:33","slug":"vetsina-americkych-bank-je-technicky-na-pokraji-bankrotu-a-stovky-jsou-jiz-zcela-zbankrotovany","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/04\/13\/vetsina-americkych-bank-je-technicky-na-pokraji-bankrotu-a-stovky-jsou-jiz-zcela-zbankrotovany\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u011bt\u0161ina americk\u00fdch bank je technicky na pokraji bankrotu a stovky jsou ji\u017e zcela zbankrotov\u00e1ny"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V lednu 2022, kdy byly v\u00fdnosy 10let\u00fdch americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f st\u00e1le kolem 1 % a n\u011bmeck\u00e9 dluhopisy -0,5 %, jsem varoval, \u017ee inflace bude \u0161patn\u00e1 jak pro akcie, tak pro dluhopisy.\u00a0Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflace by vedla k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdnos\u016fm dluhopis\u016f, co\u017e by zase po\u0161kodilo akcie, proto\u017ee by se zv\u00fd\u0161il diskontn\u00ed faktor dividendy.\u00a0Z\u00e1rove\u0148 by v\u0161ak vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy \u201ebezpe\u010dn\u00fdch\u201c dluhopis\u016f vedly tak\u00e9 k poklesu ceny, proto\u017ee vztah mezi v\u00fdnosy a cenami dluhopis\u016f je inverzn\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee tento z\u00e1kladn\u00ed princip \u2013 zn\u00e1m\u00fd jako \u201edura\u010dn\u00ed riziko\u201c \u2013 unikl mnoha bank\u00e9\u0159\u016fm, investor\u016fm s pevn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edjmem a bankovn\u00edm regul\u00e1tor\u016fm.\u00a0Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee rostouc\u00ed inflace v roce 2022 zv\u00fd\u0161ila v\u00fdnosy dluhopis\u016f, 10let\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy klesly v\u00edce (-20 %) ne\u017e S&P 500 (-15 %) a ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo vlastnil dlouhodob\u00fd fixn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjem denominovan\u00fd v dolarech nebo eurech, se ohl\u00e9dl zp\u011bt.\u00a0D\u016fsledky pro tyto investory byly v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9.\u00a0Na konci roku 2022 \u010dinily nerealizovan\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty americk\u00fdch bank z cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f 620 miliard USD, co\u017e je asi 28 % jejich celkov\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu (2,2 bilionu USD).<\/p>\n

Aby toho nebylo m\u00e1lo, vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby sn\u00ed\u017eily i tr\u017en\u00ed hodnotu ostatn\u00edch aktiv bank.\u00a0Pokud si vezmete 10let\u00fd bankovn\u00ed \u00fav\u011br s dlouhodobou \u00farokovou sazbou 1 % a pot\u00e9 se tato sazba zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed na 3,5 %, skute\u010dn\u00e1 hodnota tohoto \u00fav\u011bru (tj. \u010d\u00e1stka, kterou by v\u00e1m za n\u011bj zaplatil jin\u00fd \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk trhu) klesne .\u00a0Vezmeme-li toto v \u00favahu, nerealizovan\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty americk\u00fdch bank ve skute\u010dnosti dosahuj\u00ed 1,75 bilionu dolar\u016f, neboli 80 % jejich kapit\u00e1lu.<\/p>\n

\u201eNerealizovan\u00e1\u201c povaha t\u011bchto ztr\u00e1t je pouze artefaktem sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho regula\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu, kter\u00fd bank\u00e1m umo\u017e\u0148uje oce\u0148ovat cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry a p\u016fj\u010dky nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnotou, nikoli skute\u010dnou tr\u017en\u00ed hodnotou.\u00a0Soud\u011b podle kvality sv\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu je v\u011bt\u0161ina americk\u00fdch bank technicky na pokraji bankrotu a stovky jsou ji\u017e zcela zkrachoval\u00e9.<\/p>\n

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Rostouc\u00ed inflace samoz\u0159ejm\u011b sni\u017euje skute\u010dnou hodnotu z\u00e1vazk\u016f (vklad\u016f) bank t\u00edm, \u017ee zvy\u0161uje jejich \u201evklady\u201c, co\u017e je aktivum, kter\u00e9 se v jejich rozvah\u00e1ch neobjevuje.\u00a0Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee banky st\u00e1le plat\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 0 % z v\u011bt\u0161iny sv\u00fdch vklad\u016f, i kdy\u017e jednodenn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby vzrostly na 4 % nebo v\u00edce, hodnota tohoto aktiva se zvy\u0161uje, kdy\u017e jsou \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0Podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch odhad\u016f zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby p\u0159idaly asi 1,75 bilionu dolar\u016f k celkov\u00e9 hodnot\u011b obchod\u016f s depozity americk\u00fdch bank.<\/p>\n

Toto aktivum v\u0161ak existuje pouze v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee vklady z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed u bank, kdy\u017e \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby rostou, a ze Silicon Valley Bank a zku\u0161enost\u00ed jin\u00fdch region\u00e1ln\u00edch americk\u00fdch bank dnes v\u00edme, \u017ee takov\u00e9 ponech\u00e1n\u00ed nen\u00ed zdaleka zaru\u010deno.\u00a0Kdy\u017e vkladatel\u00e9 prchaj\u00ed, obchod s depozity se vypa\u0159\u00ed a nerealizovan\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty na cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edrech se projev\u00ed, kdy\u017e je banky prodaj\u00ed, aby splnily po\u017eadavky na vyplacen\u00ed.\u00a0Bankrot je pak nevyhnuteln\u00fd.<\/p>\n

Argument \u201efran\u0161\u00edzy na vklady\u201c d\u00e1le p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina vkladatel\u016f je hloup\u00e1 a ukl\u00e1d\u00e1 sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze na \u00fa\u010dty s t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 0% \u00farokem, kdy\u017e by mohli vyd\u011blat 4 % nebo v\u00edce v dokonale bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch fondech pen\u011b\u017en\u00edho trhu investuj\u00edc\u00edch do kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f.\u00a0Ale znovu, nyn\u00ed v\u00edme, \u017ee vkladatel\u00e9 nejsou tak spokojen\u00ed.\u00a0Sou\u010dasn\u00fd \u00fanik nepoji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch \u2013 a dokonce i poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch \u2013 vklad\u016f, kter\u00fd se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed, bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b \u0159\u00edzen jak snahou vkladatel\u016f o vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy, tak jejich starost\u00ed o bezpe\u010dnost jejich vklad\u016f.<\/p>\n

Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, citlivost vklad\u016f na \u00farokovou m\u00edru se po 15let\u00e9 pauze vr\u00e1tila do pop\u0159ed\u00ed, proto\u017ee politick\u00e9 a kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby po glob\u00e1ln\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed krizi v roce 2008 klesly t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 na nulu.\u00a0Banky na sebe vzaly velmi p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9 dura\u010dn\u00ed riziko, kdy\u017e cht\u011bly zlep\u0161it sv\u00e9 \u010dist\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 mar\u017ee.\u00a0Vyu\u017eili toho, \u017ee kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9 po\u017eadavky na st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy a cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 hypot\u00e9kou byly nulov\u00e9 a ztr\u00e1ty z t\u011bchto aktiv nemusely b\u00fdt tr\u017en\u00edm ocen\u011bn\u00edm.\u00a0Aby toho nebylo m\u00e1lo, regul\u00e1to\u0159i ani neprov\u00e1d\u011bli z\u00e1t\u011b\u017eov\u00e9 testy bank, aby zjistili, jak by dopadly ve sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i prudce rostouc\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb.<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed, kdy\u017e se tento dome\u010dek z karet hrout\u00ed, \u00fav\u011brov\u00e1 krize zp\u016fsoben\u00e1 dne\u0161n\u00edm bankovn\u00edm stresem zas\u00e1hne re\u00e1lnou ekonomiku je\u0161t\u011b tvrd\u011bji, proto\u017ee region\u00e1ln\u00ed banky hraj\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli ve financov\u00e1n\u00ed mal\u00fdch a st\u0159edn\u00edch podnik\u016f a dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed.\u00a0Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky tedy \u010del\u00ed nejen dilematu, ale tak\u00e9 trilematu.\u00a0Kv\u016fli ned\u00e1vn\u00fdm nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fdm nab\u00eddkov\u00fdm \u0161ok\u016fm \u2013 jako je pandemie a v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b \u2013 by dosa\u017een\u00ed cenov\u00e9 stability prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb nevyhnuteln\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161ilo riziko tvrd\u00e9ho p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed (recese a vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed nezam\u011bstnanost).\u00a0Jak jsem v\u0161ak v\u00edce ne\u017e rok tvrdil, tento obt\u00ed\u017en\u00fd kompromis s sebou nese tak\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed riziko v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed nestability.<\/p>\n

Dlu\u017en\u00edci \u010del\u00ed rostouc\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdm sazb\u00e1m \u2013 a tedy v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdm n\u00e1klad\u016fm \u2013 u nov\u00fdch \u00fav\u011br\u016f a u st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho dluhu, kter\u00fd je splatn\u00fd a je t\u0159eba jej prodlou\u017eit.\u00a0N\u00e1r\u016fst dlouhodob\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 zp\u016fsobuje masivn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty pro v\u011b\u0159itele, kte\u0159\u00ed dr\u017e\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e1 aktiva.\u00a0V d\u016fsledku toho se ekonomika dost\u00e1v\u00e1 do \u201edluhov\u00e9 pasti\u201c, kdy vysok\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 deficity a dluh vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed \u201efisk\u00e1ln\u00ed dominanci\u201c nad m\u011bnovou politikou a vysok\u00fd soukrom\u00fd dluh vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed \u201efinan\u010dn\u00ed dominanci\u201c nad m\u011bnov\u00fdmi a regula\u010dn\u00edmi org\u00e1ny.<\/p>\n

Jak jsem ji\u017e dlouho varoval, centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky \u010del\u00edc\u00ed tomuto trilematu pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ustoup\u00ed (omezen\u00edm normalizace m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky), aby se vyhnuly samopokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edmu hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9mu a finan\u010dn\u00edmu zhroucen\u00ed a \u010dasem se vytvo\u0159\u00ed podm\u00ednky pro ukotven\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00edch o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky si nesm\u00ed d\u011blat iluze, \u017ee mohou dos\u00e1hnout cenov\u00e9 i finan\u010dn\u00ed stability prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm n\u011bjak\u00e9ho principu odd\u011blen\u00ed (zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb v boji proti inflaci p\u0159i sou\u010dasn\u00e9 podpo\u0159e likvidity k zachov\u00e1n\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed stability).\u00a0V dluhov\u00e9 pasti povedou vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby k syst\u00e9mov\u00fdm dluhov\u00fdm kriz\u00edm, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e nelze \u0159e\u0161it podporou likvidity.<\/p>\n

Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky by tak\u00e9 nem\u011bly p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed \u00fav\u011brov\u00e1 krize udus\u00ed inflaci omezen\u00edm agreg\u00e1tn\u00ed popt\u00e1vky.\u00a0A kone\u010dn\u011b, negativn\u00ed \u0161oky do agreg\u00e1tn\u00ed nab\u00eddky p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed a trhy pr\u00e1ce z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 napjat\u00e9.\u00a0Siln\u00e1 recese je jedin\u00e1 v\u011bc, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee utlumit cenovou a mzdovou inflaci, ale prohloub\u00ed dluhovou krizi, kter\u00e1 n\u00e1sledn\u011b povede k je\u0161t\u011b hlub\u0161\u00edmu hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9mu poklesu.\u00a0Proto\u017ee podpora likvidity nem\u016f\u017ee zabr\u00e1nit tomuto syst\u00e9mov\u00e9mu za\u010darovan\u00e9mu kruhu, ka\u017ed\u00fd by se m\u011bl p\u0159ipravit na nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed stagfla\u010dn\u00ed dluhovou krizi.<\/p>\n

Nouriel Roubini<\/strong> je emeritn\u00edm profesorem ekonomie na New York University’s Stern School of Business, hlavn\u00edm ekonomem Atlas Capital Team, gener\u00e1ln\u00edm \u0159editelem spole\u010dnosti Roubini Macro Associates a spoluzakladatelem TheBoomBust.com.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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V lednu 2022, kdy byly v\u00fdnosy 10let\u00fdch americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f st\u00e1le kolem 1 % a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":24579,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[503,2888,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26040"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26040"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26040\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26041,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26040\/revisions\/26041"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24579"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26040"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26040"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26040"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}