{"id":25753,"date":"2023-04-07T05:12:39","date_gmt":"2023-04-07T03:12:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=25753"},"modified":"2023-04-07T05:51:10","modified_gmt":"2023-04-07T03:51:10","slug":"jiri-paroubek-pruzkum-agentury-sanep-katastrofa-pro-cssd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/04\/07\/jiri-paroubek-pruzkum-agentury-sanep-katastrofa-pro-cssd\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Pr\u016fzkum agentury SANEP \u2013 katastrofa pro \u010cSSD"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Jedin\u00e1 agentura pro v\u00fdzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed, kter\u00e1 v \u010cesku nen\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed kartelu agentur pro v\u00fdzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se pokou\u0161ej\u00ed sv\u00fdmi odhady, prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fdmi na \u00farovni haruspik\u016f, formovat ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed u n\u00e1s, je SANEP.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Je tak\u00e9 zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, \u017ee se \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 v\u00fdzkumn\u00e1 agentura te\u010f nezab\u00fdv\u00e1 nap\u0159. zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm, jak se lid\u00e9 d\u00edvaj\u00ed na sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed po\u010dtu po\u0161tovn\u00edch fili\u00e1lek po \u010cesku anebo na zmrza\u010den\u00ed valoriza\u010dn\u00edho vzorce. Na to prost\u011b agentury, kter\u00e9 jsou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed kartelu, nemaj\u00ed odvahu anebo jim chyb\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161 chu\u0165. Anebo tyto pr\u016fzkumy k\u00a0dispozici maj\u00ed, jen je nezve\u0159ej\u0148uj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Naproti tomu agentura SANEP, kter\u00e1 se v\u017edy op\u00edr\u00e1 o podstatn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vzorky respondent\u016f ne\u017eli agentury zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9ho kartelu (\u0159ekl bych, \u017ee v\u00a0souhrnu v\u0161ech t\u011bchto agentur po\u010dty respondent\u016f nikdy nep\u0159es\u00e1hnou po\u010dty agentury SANEP), se alespo\u0148 pro m\u011b st\u00e1v\u00e1 podstatn\u011b v\u011brohodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ve sv\u00fdch odhadech, proto\u017ee je dok\u00e1\u017eu ch\u00e1pat selsk\u00fdm rozumem. V\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 krizov\u00e9 situaci p\u0159eci nutn\u011b mus\u00ed r\u016fst volebn\u00ed preference obou opozi\u010dn\u00edch parlamentn\u00edch stran. V\u00a0jednom z\u00a0pr\u016fzkum\u016f nejmenovan\u00e9 agentury, kter\u00e1 je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed kartelu, dokonce vl\u00e1dn\u00ed strany (koalice Spolu) zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9ho ned\u00e1vno v \u010cT9 dokonce p\u0159ev\u00fd\u0161ily v\u00a0preferenc\u00edch hnut\u00ed ANO. Neobe\u0161lo se to pochopiteln\u011b bez velk\u00e9ho j\u00e1sotu jist\u00e9ho zn\u00e1m\u00e9ho moder\u00e1tora \u010cT.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0pr\u016fzkumu SANEP z\u00a0b\u0159ezna m\u00e1 hnut\u00ed ANO 33,1% preferenc\u00ed, co\u017e je nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed o 0,4% proti p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu m\u011bs\u00edci. M\u016fj odhad po prezidentsk\u00e9 volb\u011b byl, \u017ee hnut\u00ed ANO m\u016f\u017ee z\u00edskat ur\u010ditou \u010d\u00e1st voli\u010d\u016f A. Babi\u0161e, kte\u0159\u00ed dosud nevolili hnut\u00ed ANO. Odhadl bych tento potenci\u00e1l zna\u010dky Babi\u0161 \u2013 hnut\u00ed ANO na 35%.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00e1 opozi\u010dn\u00ed strana, SPD, sice v\u00a0p\u0159edchoz\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch pon\u011bkud ztratila, ale oproti \u00fanoru zv\u00fd\u0161ila sv\u00e9 preference na 9,6% (n\u00e1r\u016fst mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b o 0,3%).<\/p>\n

Z vl\u00e1dn\u00edch stran za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed rozvoj preferenc\u00ed pouze Pir\u00e1ti. T\u011bm volebn\u00ed podpora vzrostla mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b v\u00a0b\u0159eznu na 9,9%, tedy o 2%. Je to mo\u017en\u00e1 pro n\u011bkoho p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9, ale nejsp\u00ed\u0161 to bude d\u016fsledkem toho, \u017ee Pir\u00e1ti prost\u011b ned\u011blaj\u00ed nic. Nemaj\u00ed viditeln\u00e9 resorty. Jejich p\u0159edseda Barto\u0161 se ukryl na resortu pro m\u00edstn\u00ed rozvoj a ne\u017e ob\u010dan\u00e9 p\u0159ijdou na to, \u017ee nezpracoval \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed n\u00e1vrh z\u00e1kona, podle kter\u00e9ho by se daly stav\u011bt nap\u0159. komun\u00e1ln\u00ed byty anebo soci\u00e1ln\u00ed byty, bude konec volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed. A ve v\u0159av\u011b volebn\u00ed kampan\u011b budou v\u0161ichni slibovat v\u00fdstavbu des\u00edtek tis\u00edc nov\u00fdch byt\u016f, aby pak neud\u011blali ve fin\u00e1le znovu v\u016fbec nic.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed strany, pokud by kandidovaly samostatn\u011b \u2013 by propadly ro\u0161tem 5% hranice volebn\u00ed podpory, bez kter\u00e9 se neobejde vstup, t\u00e9 kter\u00e9 strany do Poslaneck\u00e9 sn\u011bmovny.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0b\u0159eznu by preference STAN dos\u00e1hly 4,3%, TOP 09 \u2013 4,1% a KDU-\u010cSL \u2013 3,4%. Nepochybuji o tom, \u017ee tyto strany budou m\u00edt z\u00e1jem udr\u017eet spole\u010dnou p\u0159edvolebn\u00ed koalici s\u00a0ODS a je\u0161t\u011b ji pos\u00edlit o STAN. Po zku\u0161enostech, kter\u00e9 Pir\u00e1ti ud\u011blali s\u00a0hnut\u00edm STAN, je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by byli ochotni je\u0161t\u011b jednou podlehnout omylu a vytvo\u0159it se STAN p\u0159edvolebn\u00ed koalici.<\/p>\n

Podle agentury SANEP se ji\u017e etablovanou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed volebn\u00edch pr\u016fzkum\u016f t\u00e9to agentury st\u00e1v\u00e1 nov\u00e1 strana PRO s\u00a06,4% preferenc\u00ed. Tyto sv\u00e9 preference oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu m\u011bs\u00edci velmi m\u00edrn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161ila.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Prost\u011b strana PRO stahuje k\u00a0sob\u011b frustrovan\u00e9 a nespokojen\u00e9 voli\u010de, a to nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1zorov\u00fdch skupin<\/strong>. Od milovn\u00edk\u016f b\u00fdval\u00e9ho re\u017eimu a\u017e po antivaxery, odp\u016frce EU, NATO apod.<\/p>\n

Zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhem je \u010cSSD, kter\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b v\u00a0posledn\u00edm pr\u016fzkumu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed agentury SANEP z\u00edskala 3% preferenc\u00ed. Nyn\u00ed ji\u017e ani tato \u00farove\u0148 preferenc\u00ed u t\u00e9to strany nebyla dosa\u017eena.<\/p>\n

Je to smutn\u00fd debakl a dal\u0161\u00ed krok k\u00a0zni\u010den\u00ed toho m\u00e1la, co zejm\u00e9na ze soci\u00e1ln\u00ed demokracie je\u0161t\u011b zbylo.<\/p>\n

Na\u0161i \u201eprezidentotv\u016frci\u201c, kte\u0159\u00ed sn\u00ed o vytvo\u0159en\u00ed krotk\u00e9, provl\u00e1dn\u00ed \u201emodern\u00ed levicov\u00e9 strany\u201c, nejl\u00e9pe na b\u00e1zi \u201eobrozen\u00ed soci\u00e1ln\u00ed demokracie\u201c, z\u0159ejm\u011b dok\u00e1zali „za\u0159\u00eddit“ u n\u011bkter\u00fdch agentur, \u017ee se jak blesk z\u00a0\u010dist\u00e9ho nebe objevila \u010cSSD t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 mezi premianty. Nebyly to \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 z\u00e1zraky, ale pr\u00fd dosahuje 5% volebn\u00edch preferenc\u00ed. Tyto agentury to mohou bez jak\u00e9hokoliv rizika dnes tvrdit, by\u0165 je to tvrzen\u00ed velmi p\u0159ehnan\u00e9, prost\u011b proto, \u017ee nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed volby se uskute\u010dn\u00ed a\u017e za rok a \u010dtvrt. A takov\u00fd rok si s\u00a0preferencemi, aby neztratily \u00fapln\u011b svou d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost, mohou v\u00a0podstat\u011b d\u011blat, co cht\u011bj\u00ed. Ov\u0161em pak najednou v\u00a0t\u011bch posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech p\u0159ed volbami dojde k\u00a0z\u00e1va\u017en\u00fdm p\u0159esun\u016fm \u010d\u00edsel preferenc\u00ed a po volb\u00e1ch pak k\u00a0velk\u00e9mu pl\u00e1\u010di.<\/p>\n

Zkr\u00e1tka \u0160mardovo veden\u00ed \u010cSSD by se m\u011blo vymanit z\u00a0vlivu lid\u00ed jako jsou Pokorn\u00fd a \u201eprezidentotv\u016frci\u201c, kte\u0159\u00ed vedou to, co z t\u00e9 kdysi slavn\u00e9 strany zbylo do volebn\u00ed propasti.<\/p>\n

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Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

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Jedin\u00e1 agentura pro v\u00fdzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed, kter\u00e1 v \u010cesku nen\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed kartelu agentur pro v\u00fdzkum…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":715,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[52,29,2663,2526],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25753"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25753"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25753\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25753"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25753"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25753"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}