{"id":25610,"date":"2023-04-05T01:00:54","date_gmt":"2023-04-04T23:00:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=25610"},"modified":"2023-04-04T15:31:07","modified_gmt":"2023-04-04T13:31:07","slug":"bernd-murawski-jake-sance-ma-cinska-mirova-iniciativa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/04\/05\/bernd-murawski-jake-sance-ma-cinska-mirova-iniciativa\/","title":{"rendered":"Bernd Murawski: Jak\u00e9 \u0161ance m\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 m\u00edrov\u00e1 iniciativa?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong><em>Zda bude \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd dvan\u00e1ctibodov\u00fd pl\u00e1n na \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 krize realizov\u00e1n, z\u00e1vis\u00ed na v\u016fli konfliktn\u00edch stran.\u00a0Kreml to pova\u017euje za vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 a pr\u016flomov\u00e9, Kyjev projevil z\u00e1jem, ale Z\u00e1pad v tom nevid\u00ed z\u00e1klad pro vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Smluvn\u00edch ujedn\u00e1n\u00ed by v\u0161ak bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 dos\u00e1hnout i bez \u00fa\u010dasti Z\u00e1padu.<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Po urovn\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed usiluje pekingsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed o dal\u0161\u00ed diplomatick\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch nab\u00eddkou, \u017ee bude prost\u0159edn\u00edkem ve v\u00e1lce na Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0S\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/de.nachrichten.yahoo.com\/will-china-12-punkte-friedensplan-070041727.html\"><span>12bodov\u00fdm pl\u00e1nem<\/span><\/a><span>p\u0159edstavila dokument, kter\u00fd zd\u016fraz\u0148uje slo\u017eitost konfliktu.\u00a0Z po\u017eadavk\u016f je neomyln\u011b jasn\u00e9, kdo jsou adres\u00e1ti \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 kritiky, i kdy\u017e nejsou v\u00fdslovn\u011b jmenov\u00e1ni.\u00a0Rusko je obvin\u011bno z poru\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1kazu pou\u017eit\u00ed s\u00edly podle mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va invaz\u00ed na Ukrajinu.\u00a0Z\u00e1pad je obvi\u0148ov\u00e1n z poru\u0161en\u00ed principu ned\u011blitelnosti bezpe\u010dnosti a t\u00edm zp\u016fsoben\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 krizov\u00e9 situace.\u00a0Aby zakryl svou agresivn\u00ed politiku, reinterpretoval by mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed pr\u00e1vo, na kter\u00e9 se v sou\u010dasnosti Rusko odvol\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Reakce z\u00e1padn\u00ed politick\u00e9 elity nenech\u00e1\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.berliner-zeitung.de\/wirtschaft-verantwortung\/china-ein-friedensplan-der-dem-westen-nicht-schmeckt-li.321539\"><span>nikoho na pochyb\u00e1ch<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 m\u00edrov\u00e1 iniciativa je ne\u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed.\u00a0\u00dastupek, nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159i vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury nebo zru\u0161en\u00ed ekonomick\u00fdch sankc\u00ed, se tedy ned\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1vat.\u00a0Na druhou stranu se kyjevsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed projevilo otev\u0159en\u011b.\u00a0Pokud by k jedn\u00e1n\u00ed do\u0161lo, skupina \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f by se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b omezila na Rusko a Ukrajinu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Pokud by do\u0161lo k m\u00edrov\u00e9 dohod\u011b, tlak na z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b by v\u00fdrazn\u011b vzrostl.\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.swr.de\/swr2\/leben-und-gesellschaft\/der-westen-haelt-sich-selbst-nicht-an-die-regeln-des-voelkerrechts-goettinger-professor-mit-vorwurf-der-doppelmoral-100.html\"><span>Zejm\u00e9na by byli po\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1ni, aby se vr\u00e1tili<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0k p\u016fvodn\u00edmu ch\u00e1p\u00e1n\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va\u00a0.\u00a0Zasahov\u00e1n\u00ed do vnit\u0159n\u00edch z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed (n\u00e1stupnick\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu, Venezuela, \u010c\u00edna), sporn\u00fd n\u00e1rok na preventivn\u00ed sebeobranu (Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n, Ir\u00e1k), humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed intervence (Jugosl\u00e1vie, Libye) a ekonomick\u00e9 sankce (\u00cdr\u00e1n, S\u00fdrie, Rusku) je t\u0159eba se vyhnout.\u00a0M\u00edsto aby se Z\u00e1pad odvol\u00e1val na hodnoty a \u0159\u00e1d zalo\u017een\u00fd na pravidlech, musel by p\u0159ijmout multipolaritu sv\u011bta.\u00a0Pokud by nad\u00e1le jednal arogantn\u011b a na z\u00e1klad\u011b sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed autority, st\u00e1le by se izoloval.\u00a0To by v\u0161ak v\u00e1\u017en\u011b ohrozilo jej\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dominanci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>Prvky smlouvy ukon\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Z\u0159ejm\u011b nen\u00ed v z\u00e1jmu Z\u00e1padu \u010d\u00ednskou iniciativu podporovat, nato\u017e se \u00fa\u010dastnit jedn\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Nebude tedy uzav\u0159ena \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 komplexn\u00ed dohoda, kter\u00e1 by zahrnovala z\u00e1vazky a z\u00e1vazky zem\u00ed NATO.\u00a0St\u0159edorusk\u00e9 po\u017eadavky, kter\u00e9 12bodov\u00fd pl\u00e1n \u010c\u00edny rovn\u011b\u017e zvy\u0161uje, by tak z\u016fstaly nenapln\u011bn\u00e9.\u00a0Z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 prvn\u00ed postul\u00e1t v textu, respektov\u00e1n\u00ed suverenity a \u00fazemn\u00ed celistvosti st\u00e1t\u016f.\u00a0I kdy\u017e by to vy\u017eadovalo jednostrann\u00e9 \u00fastupky ze strany Ruska, vyjednan\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt zcela mo\u017en\u00e9.\u00a0N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch dev\u011bt bod\u016f vysv\u011btluje, jak\u00e1 ustanoven\u00ed by m\u011bla smlouva obsahovat.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>Rusko stahuje sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 jednotky z \u00fazem\u00ed Ukrajiny.\u00a0Ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da z\u00e1rove\u0148 opou\u0161t\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st Don\u011bck\u00e9 a Lugansk\u00e9 oblasti, kterou ovl\u00e1d\u00e1.\u00a0Jednotky OSN se p\u0159esouvaj\u00ed do demilitarizovan\u00fdch oblast\u00ed \u2013 s v\u00fdjimkou regionu pat\u0159\u00edc\u00edho do Charkovsk\u00e9 oblasti, kter\u00fd spad\u00e1 pod Kyjev.\u00a0Um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed modr\u00fdch p\u0159ileb lze prov\u00e9st na z\u00e1klad\u011b d\u011blby pr\u00e1ce.\u00a0\u010c\u00edna by mohla b\u00fdt zodpov\u011bdn\u00e1 za Don\u011bck, Indie za Lugansk a Braz\u00edlie za \u010d\u00e1sti Chersonsk\u00e9 a Z\u00e1poro\u017esk\u00e9 oblasti.\u00a0V\u00fdkonnou moc v regionech vykon\u00e1vaj\u00ed komisa\u0159i OSN.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Ukrajina se prohla\u0161uje za neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed a pozm\u011b\u0148uje odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed pas\u00e1\u017e v \u00fastav\u011b.\u00a0Zejm\u00e9na to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee nevstupuje do \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 aliance a nepovoluje um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed ciz\u00edch vojensk\u00fdch jednotek.\u00a0Rovn\u011b\u017e nesm\u00ed jednat jm\u00e9nem ciz\u00edch mocnost\u00ed, nap\u0159\u00edklad vyhro\u017eovat sousedn\u00edm zem\u00edm.\u00a0Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky dost\u00e1v\u00e1 od zem\u00ed zapojen\u00fdch do m\u00edrov\u00e9ho procesu (\u010c\u00edna, Indie, Braz\u00edlie), pokud mo\u017eno i od Rady bezpe\u010dnosti OSN.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Veden\u00ed a parlament Ruska odvolaly za\u010dlen\u011bn\u00ed \u010dty\u0159 ukrajinsk\u00fdch oblast\u00ed do rusk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed a p\u0159edchoz\u00ed uzn\u00e1n\u00ed nez\u00e1vislosti Don\u011bck\u00e9 a Lugansk\u00e9 republiky.\u00a0Z\u00e1rove\u0148 potvrzuj\u00ed, \u017ee \u00fazem\u00ed pod dohledem OSN jsou ukrajinsk\u00fdm suver\u00e9nn\u00edm \u00fazem\u00edm.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Brzy pot\u00e9, co m\u00edrov\u00e1 smlouva vstoup\u00ed v platnost, budou zvoleni m\u00edstn\u00ed rozhodovac\u00ed \u010dinitel\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed budou podl\u00e9hat oblastn\u00edm komisa\u0159\u016fm OSN.\u00a0Volby prob\u00edhaj\u00ed za p\u0159\u00edtomnosti nez\u00e1visl\u00fdch pozorovatel\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed tak\u00e9 dbaj\u00ed na to, aby nedoch\u00e1zelo k propagand\u011b pro ruskou \u010di ukrajinskou stranu a kandid\u00e1ti se soust\u0159edili na region\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fakoly.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Vznikaj\u00ed sm\u00edr\u010d\u00ed komise, v nich\u017e jsou zastoupeny v\u0161echny politick\u00e9 a jazykov\u00e9 skupiny.\u00a0Jejich \u00fakolem je vystopovat a kritizovat provokativn\u00ed a pomlouva\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00fdroky m\u00e9di\u00ed a politick\u00fdch v\u016fdc\u016f.\u00a0Mus\u00ed tak\u00e9 zajistit zachov\u00e1n\u00ed politick\u00e9 neutrality ve vl\u00e1dn\u00edch slu\u017eb\u00e1ch.\u00a0V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby mohou komisa\u0159i OSN kl\u00e1st podm\u00ednky a ve v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech zak\u00e1zat sd\u011blovac\u00ed prost\u0159edky, zabavit publikace a propustit politiky.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 pr\u00e1vn\u00ed a finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9my, jako\u017e i ob\u010danstv\u00ed a soci\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1roky z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed v platnosti, ale br\u00e1n\u00ed se dal\u0161\u00ed integraci do rusk\u00fdch nebo ukrajinsk\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f.\u00a0M\u00edstn\u00ed rozhodovac\u00ed org\u00e1ny jsou vyz\u00fdv\u00e1ny, aby v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b probl\u00e9m\u016f hledali praktick\u00e1 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed v koordinaci s komisa\u0159i OSN.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Rusko se zav\u00e1zalo zaplatit 100 miliard eur za v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 \u0161kody.\u00a0Z toho bude 20 procent p\u0159evedeno na kyjevskou vl\u00e1du a zbytek bude pou\u017eit na rekonstrukci v regionech pod dohledem OSN.\u00a0Projekty realizuj\u00ed m\u00edstn\u00ed zastoupen\u00ed, ka\u017ed\u00fd podl\u00e9h\u00e1 schv\u00e1len\u00ed komisa\u0159\u016f OSN.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Po p\u011bti letech se budou konat referenda o budoucnosti \u010dty\u0159 oblast\u00ed pod kontrolou OSN, proto\u017ee se situace mezit\u00edm pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zkonsolidovala.\u00a0Mo\u017enosti jsou reintegrace do Ukrajiny a spojen\u00ed s Ruskem.\u00a0Po\u017eadovan\u00e9 kvorum je 50 procent pro prvn\u00ed mo\u017enost a 75 procent pro druhou mo\u017enost.\u00a0Pokud nen\u00ed dosa\u017eeno \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9ho z kvor, status OSN z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 zachov\u00e1n.\u00a0V tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se o p\u011bt let pozd\u011bji bude konat nov\u00e9 hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee situaci na Krymu lze pova\u017eovat za stabilizovanou, bude se bezprost\u0159edn\u011b po podpisu smlouvy konat referendum za stejn\u00fdch podm\u00ednek.\u00a0Pokud by Rusko z\u00edskalo m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 75 procent hlas\u016f, Moskva se zav\u00e1\u017ee zvr\u00e1tit anexi Krymu a st\u00e1hne svou arm\u00e1du.\u00a0Nav\u00edc, pokud bude pro Ukrajinu hlasovat m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 50 procent, Krym se stejn\u011b jako \u010dty\u0159i oblasti na v\u00fdchod\u011b a jihu zem\u011b dostane pod kontrolu OSN.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>Pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee Rusko i Ukrajina p\u0159ijmou takov\u00e9 urovn\u00e1n\u00ed, je pom\u011brn\u011b vysok\u00e1.\u00a0Tomu bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159edch\u00e1zet f\u00e1ze konzultac\u00ed a tak\u00e9 n\u011bkolik kol jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s podporou \u010c\u00edny a mo\u017en\u00e1 Indie a Braz\u00edlie.\u00a0Z\u00e1jem obou v\u00e1l\u010d\u00edc\u00edch stran na m\u00edrov\u00e9 dohod\u011b je zalo\u017een na pozn\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed alternativy jsou v\u017edy hor\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nd-aktuell.de\/artikel\/1170722.ukraine-russland-konflikt-deeskalation-im-ukraine-krieg-us-thinktank-raet-zu-verhandlungen.html\"><span>Jsou to pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1kopov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka, korejsk\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0up\u0159ednost\u0148ovan\u00e9 Z\u00e1padem\u00a0, ukrajinsk\u00e1 kapitulace a eskalace s rizikem jadern\u00e9 v\u00fdm\u011bny.\u00a0Dosavadn\u00ed neochota na americk\u00e9 i rusk\u00e9 stran\u011b d\u00e1v\u00e1 nad\u011bji, \u017ee druhou alternativu lze vylou\u010dit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>M\u00edrov\u00e1 smlouva jako nejlep\u0161\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1 varianta pro Ukrajinu<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Deklarovan\u00fdm c\u00edlem Ukrajiny je dob\u00fdt zp\u011bt v\u0161echny \u010d\u00e1sti zem\u011b pod ruskou kontrolou, v\u010detn\u011b Krymu.\u00a0Z\u00e1stupci kyjevsk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed z\u00e1rove\u0148\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.n-tv.de\/politik\/Selenskyj-Gegenoffensive-muss-noch-warten-article24011603.html\"><span>konstatuj\u00ed<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, \u017ee vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby p\u0159ijat\u00e9 ze Z\u00e1padu zdaleka nesta\u010d\u00ed pro \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nou ofenz\u00edvu.\u00a0Dal\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m se t\u00fdk\u00e1 zach\u00e1zen\u00ed se z\u00e1padn\u00edmi zbran\u011bmi, proto\u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da dosud bojovala hlavn\u011b se zn\u00e1mou technikou ze sov\u011btsk\u00e9 \u00e9ry.\u00a0V neposledn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b nar\u016fstaj\u00ed pot\u00ed\u017ee s mobilizac\u00ed a nedostatek zku\u0161en\u00e9ho person\u00e1lu.\u00a0Vzhledem k t\u011bmto skute\u010dnostem jsou vojen\u0161t\u00ed experti toho\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=u33XktOuSNk\"><span>n\u00e1zoru<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00fd pl\u00e1n sel\u017ee, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e Rusko m\u00e1 mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed potenci\u00e1l.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Pokud Kyjev p\u0159esto zah\u00e1j\u00ed \u00fatok, pak lze pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd ne\u00fasp\u011bch pova\u017eovat za nezbytnou ud\u00e1lost k n\u00e1sledn\u00e9mu vyrovn\u00e1n\u00ed se se status quo.\u00a0Nov\u00fdm c\u00edlem by mohlo b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, podle\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.anti-spiegel.ru\/2023\/teil-1-suchen-die-usa-eine-exit-strategie-aus-dem-ukraine-krieg\/?doing_wp_cron=1679777707.8904359340667724609375\"><span>anal\u00fdzy<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0korporace RAND , podle n\u00ed\u017e by Ukrajina ztratila oblasti ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9 Ruskem a musela by se vyhl\u00e1sit za neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed.\u00a0Toto zmrazen\u00ed konfliktu, p\u0159ezd\u00edvan\u00e9 korejsk\u00fd model, by se v\u0161ak jevilo jako por\u00e1\u017eka a bylo by obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 jej sd\u011blit, co\u017e list RAND popisuje jako sou\u010dasn\u00fd nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Na druhou stranu zde prezentovan\u00e9 m\u00edrov\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed zalo\u017een\u00e9 na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m 12bodov\u00e9m pl\u00e1nu m\u00e1 tu v\u00fdhodu, \u017ee by bylo z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti dosa\u017eeno c\u00edl\u016f Kyjeva.\u00a0Jde p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm o \u00fapln\u00e9 sta\u017een\u00ed rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy.\u00a0Zru\u0161en\u00edm p\u0159evzet\u00ed \u010dty\u0159 ukrajinsk\u00fdch oblast\u00ed by Moskva uznala jejich p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161nost k Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0Krom\u011b toho by Kyjev dostal kompenza\u010dn\u00ed platby.\u00a0Ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzn\u00e9 \u0159\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed by bylo zma\u0159eno skute\u010dnost\u00ed, \u017ee \u00fazem\u00ed uvoln\u011bn\u00e1 Ruskem by se dostala pod kontrolu OSN a Krym by s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed prohr\u00e1l v referendu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>V\u00fdhodou m\u00edrov\u00e9 dohody oproti zmrazen\u00e9mu konfliktu je, \u017ee ob\u011b strany sd\u00edlej\u00ed stejn\u00e9 pr\u00e1vn\u00ed postaven\u00ed.\u00a0To sni\u017euje p\u016fdu pro budouc\u00ed spory, kter\u00e9 by se mohly rozho\u0159et, pokud \u00fazemn\u00ed spor z\u016fstane nevy\u0159e\u0161en\u00fd.\u00a0Jeliko\u017e by Kyjev po vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed konfliktn\u00ed situace nebyl z\u00e1visl\u00fd na vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed podpo\u0159e, z\u00edskal by v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed politick\u00fd prostor pro man\u00e9vrov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0To je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, proto\u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed mus\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.deutschlandfunk.de\/ukraine-eu-europaeische-union-beitritt-krieg-100.html\"><span>p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, \u017ee krit\u00e9ria pro zam\u00fd\u0161len\u00fd vstup do EU nebudou v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b spln\u011bna.\u00a0Mezit\u00edm by se mohly otev\u0159\u00edt nov\u00e9 mo\u017enosti, nap\u0159\u00edklad u\u017e\u0161\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce s asijsk\u00fdmi partnery.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>Vojensk\u00e9 strategie preferovan\u00e9 v Rusku<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>V Rusku debat\u011b dominuj\u00ed dva postoje k pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 akce.\u00a0N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed analytici up\u0159ednost\u0148uj\u00ed c\u00edl \u00fapln\u00e9ho dobyt\u00ed Don\u011bck\u00e9 a Lugansk\u00e9 oblasti a n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, jin\u00ed eliminaci ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 ma\u0161in\u00e9rie s n\u00e1slednou kapitulac\u00ed Kyjeva.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>V prvn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by bylo t\u0159eba vz\u00edt n\u011bkolik m\u011bstsk\u00fdch komplex\u016f, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm Kramatorsk a Slowiansk.\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rnd.de\/politik\/aktuelle-bilder-aus-bachmut-drohnenaufnahmen-zeigen-zerstoerung-in-ukrainischer-stadt-durch-russland-FPI4HNSVE3TVPW5RS6CM5CU6JQ.html\"><span>Jak ukazuje<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0zcela zdevastovan\u00fd Artjomowsk (Bachmut)\u00a0, muselo by se akceptovat zna\u010dn\u00e9 zni\u010den\u00ed budov a infrastruktury a tak\u00e9 vysok\u00e9 person\u00e1ln\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty.\u00a0Po dobyt\u00ed by pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed pohrani\u010dn\u00ed \u0161arv\u00e1tky a raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky na vnitrozem\u00ed vytvo\u0159ily trvalou nejistotu a br\u00e1nily obnov\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Druh\u00e1 alternativa by vy\u017eadovala rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 operace z Ruska, kter\u00e9 by zahrnovaly zna\u010dn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty a masivn\u00ed ni\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho vybaven\u00ed.\u00a0Po ukrajinsk\u00e9 kapitulaci by se naskytla p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost tla\u010dit na Kyjev a mo\u017en\u00e1 i p\u0159\u00edmo ovliv\u0148ovat jeho politiku, nap\u0159\u00edklad po vytvo\u0159en\u00ed \u0161irok\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy jednoty za \u00fa\u010dasti prorusk\u00fdch sil.\u00a0Z\u00e1rove\u0148 by v\u0161ak Moskva musela po\u010d\u00edtat s\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.merkur.de\/politik\/ukraine-konflikt-krieg-soldaten-zivilisten-russland-putin-guerilla-krieg-partisanen-91379021.html\"><span>guerillov\u00fdmi aktivitami<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, kter\u00fdm lze ve velk\u00e9 zemi, jakou je Ukrajina, jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed zabr\u00e1nit.\u00a0Ze sv\u00fdch ba\u0161t v z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti zem\u011b mohly povstaleck\u00e9 jednotky dokonce vtrhnout na rusk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed.\u00a0Z\u00e1pad by je \u0161t\u011bd\u0159e podporoval zbran\u011bmi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>V obou vojensk\u00fdch koncepc\u00edch by konfrontace se Z\u00e1padem pokra\u010dovala.\u00a0Informa\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lka by neutichla a zru\u0161en\u00ed sankc\u00ed by st\u00e1le nebylo mo\u017en\u00e9.\u00a0Zat\u00edmco rusk\u00e1 ekonomika je do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry odoln\u00e1, existuj\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tagesschau.de\/wirtschaft\/weltwirtschaft\/wirtschaftssanktionen-russland-folgen-interview-101.html\"><span>ne\u00fasp\u011bchy<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, kter\u00e9 by se mohly v budoucnu roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it.\u00a0Korejsk\u00fd model spole\u010dnosti RAND Corporation, ve kter\u00e9m je p\u0159isl\u00edbeno sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sankc\u00ed, by proto byl preferovanou alternativou.\u00a0Jeliko\u017e jde o zmrazen\u00ed konfliktu, situace na front\u011b by se uklidnila.\u00a0Kone\u010dn\u011b, pl\u00e1novanou neutralizac\u00ed Ukrajiny by byl spln\u011bn kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd rusk\u00fd po\u017eadavek.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>Rusko t\u011b\u017e\u00ed z m\u00edrov\u00e9 smlouvy<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Korejsk\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed by v\u0161ak m\u011blo nejen v\u00fdhody oproti vojensk\u00fdm variant\u00e1m, ale zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee tak\u00e9 zast\u00edn\u00ed zde prezentovan\u00fd n\u00e1vrh smlouvy.\u00a0Rusko by si ponechalo kontrolu nad \u010dty\u0159mi oblastmi na jihu a v\u00fdchod\u011b Ukrajiny a nemuselo by revidovat jejich za\u010dlen\u011bn\u00ed do Rusk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed federace.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Od t\u00e9to chv\u00edle by v\u0161ak byl Kreml z\u00e1visl\u00fd na dobr\u00e9 v\u016fli Z\u00e1padu, co\u017e se v minulosti opakovan\u011b stalo osudn\u00fdm.\u00a0Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky se uk\u00e1zalo,\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/apolut.net\/der-westen-haette-den-ukraine-krieg-verhindern-koennen-wollte-es-aber-nicht-von-bernd-murawski\/\"><span>\u017ee<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0veden\u00ed ve Washingtonu a jeho evrop\u0161t\u00ed obh\u00e1jci nesm\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed ke kompromisu s Ruskem, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e k jeho trval\u00e9mu oslaben\u00ed.\u00a0Tento c\u00edl by byl nepochybn\u011b sledov\u00e1n po nucen\u00e9m taktick\u00e9m sta\u017een\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Nap\u0159\u00edklad z\u00e1vazek Ukrajiny k neutralit\u011b by mohl b\u00fdt naru\u0161en, jak se to v sou\u010dasnosti d\u011bje s kreativn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmvg.de\/de\/aktuelles\/5-jahre-nato-mission-efp-in-litauen-unter-deutscher-fuehrung-5339810\"><span>interpretac\u00ed<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0principu rotace NATO v pobaltsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tech.\u00a0Obecn\u011b by se zem\u011b d\u00e1le integrovala do z\u00e1padn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu a mohla by tak b\u00fdt pou\u017eita jako o\u0161t\u011bp proti Rusku.\u00a0Nebyly vylou\u010deny ani pohrani\u010dn\u00ed provokace, ani \u00fatoky povstaleck\u00fdch skupin.\u00a0Na pozad\u00ed nevy\u0159e\u0161en\u00e9ho \u00fazemn\u00edho konfliktu by tak\u00e9 mohla b\u00fdt vytvo\u0159ena z\u00e1minka pro obnoven\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e byly zru\u0161eny.\u00a0P\u0159i zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed protirusk\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed se Z\u00e1pad m\u016f\u017ee c\u00edtit povzbuzen nedostatkem mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed podpory pro v\u00fdklad Moskvy ohledn\u011b pr\u00e1vn\u00edho postoje ohledn\u011b anexe \u010dty\u0159 ukrajinsk\u00fdch oblast\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Oproti pouh\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed by m\u00edrov\u00e1 smlouva m\u011bla tu v\u00fdhodu, \u017ee by ji\u017e neexistovaly konfliktn\u00ed body mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou.\u00a0Kreml by m\u011bl b\u00fdt uji\u0161t\u011bn, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed nem\u00e1 d\u016fvod nechat se vyko\u0159is\u0165ovat Washingtonem.\u00a0S bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edm se datem referend se v\u0161ak situace m\u016f\u017ee vyhrotit.\u00a0Moskva i Kyjev by ud\u011blaly cokoliv, aby z\u00edskaly p\u0159\u00edze\u0148 obyvatel v oblastech kontrolovan\u00fdch OSN.\u00a0To by mohlo m\u00edt tak\u00e9 pozitivn\u00ed d\u016fsledky, proto\u017ee konkurence by byla pro obnovu Donbasu prosp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1.\u00a0Stejn\u011b tak se Ukrajina m\u016f\u017ee c\u00edtit nucena respektovat pr\u00e1va rusk\u00e9 men\u0161iny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Vzhledem k o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9mu hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed by Krym z\u016fstal Rusku.\u00a0Schv\u00e1len\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e9 smlouvy ze strany Ukrajiny by znamenalo, \u017ee jej\u00ed status bude mezin\u00e1rodn\u011b uzn\u00e1n.\u00a0Nejen\u017ee by byla minulost\u00ed obvin\u011bn\u00ed z poru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va a diskriminace obyvatel poloostrova, ale zmizel by i hlavn\u00ed d\u016fvod pro zachov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch sankc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Pokud by byly hlasy ve \u010dty\u0159ech ukrajinsk\u00fdch oblastech v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2022 reprezentativn\u00ed s\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdr.de\/nachrichten\/welt\/osteuropa\/politik\/ukraine-schein-referenden-russland-ergebnisse-100.html#Werte\"><span>v\u00fdsledky<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0mezi 87 procenty v Chersonu a 98 procenty v Lugansku, dalo by se po p\u011bti letech o\u010dek\u00e1vat rozhodnut\u00ed ve prosp\u011bch Ruska.\u00a0Zklam\u00e1n\u00ed z naru\u0161en\u00e9 integrace do rusk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu by v\u00edce ne\u017e p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017eil konec vojensk\u00e9 hrozby a zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd budouc\u00ed status.\u00a0Pokud by se Kyjevu mezit\u00edm poda\u0159ilo prosadit vnit\u0159n\u00ed usm\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed zatla\u010den\u00edm ultranacionalistick\u00fdch my\u0161lenek, nebyl by ani vylou\u010den n\u00e1vrat n\u011bkter\u00fdch oblast\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0V tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by se rusk\u00e9 veden\u00ed mohlo ut\u011b\u0161ovat t\u00edm, \u017ee bylo dosa\u017eeno alespo\u0148 c\u00edle \u201edenacifikace\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Bernd Murawski<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-19187 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO-300x36.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1292\" height=\"155\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO-300x36.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO.jpg 699w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1292px) 100vw, 1292px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-24737 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/cesko_proti_bide2-239x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"727\" height=\"913\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/cesko_proti_bide2-239x300.png 239w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/cesko_proti_bide2-816x1024.png 816w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/cesko_proti_bide2-768x964.png 768w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/cesko_proti_bide2.png 846w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 727px) 100vw, 727px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Zda bude \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd dvan\u00e1ctibodov\u00fd pl\u00e1n na \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 krize realizov\u00e1n, z\u00e1vis\u00ed na v\u016fli konfliktn\u00edch stran.\u00a0Kreml&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":25611,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[30,4030,22,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25610"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25610"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25610\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25611"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}