{"id":25255,"date":"2023-03-29T01:03:38","date_gmt":"2023-03-28T23:03:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=25255"},"modified":"2023-03-27T13:52:03","modified_gmt":"2023-03-27T11:52:03","slug":"americke-bankovni-problemy-ohlasuji-konec-dolaroveho-rezervniho-systemu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/03\/29\/americke-bankovni-problemy-ohlasuji-konec-dolaroveho-rezervniho-systemu\/","title":{"rendered":"Americk\u00e9 bankovn\u00ed probl\u00e9my ohla\u0161uj\u00ed konec dolarov\u00e9ho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bankovn\u00ed krize nen\u00ed \u00fav\u011brovou z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed, ale pramen\u00ed z nyn\u00ed nemo\u017en\u00e9ho \u00fakolu financovat st\u00e1le rostouc\u00ed americk\u00fd zahrani\u010dn\u00ed dluh.<\/strong><\/p>\n

NEW YORK \u2013 Americk\u00fd bankovn\u00ed syst\u00e9m je rozbit\u00fd.\u00a0To ale neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee dojde k dal\u0161\u00edm velkolep\u00fdm bankrot\u016fm, jako byl ten v Credit Suisse.\u00a0Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky udr\u017e\u00ed skom\u00edraj\u00edc\u00ed instituce p\u0159i \u017eivot\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale \u00e9ra dolarov\u00fdch rezerv a plovouc\u00edch sm\u011bnn\u00fdch kurz\u016f, kter\u00e1 za\u010dala 15. srpna 1971, kdy USA p\u0159eru\u0161ily spojen\u00ed dolaru a zlata, kon\u010d\u00ed.\u00a0Bolest se p\u0159enese z bank do re\u00e1ln\u00e9 ekonomiky, kter\u00e1 bude hladov\u011bt po \u00fav\u011brech.<\/span><\/p>\n

A geopolitick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky budou obrovsk\u00e9.\u00a0Konfiskace dolarov\u00fdch p\u016fj\u010dek urychl\u00ed p\u0159echod na multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed syst\u00e9m rezerv s v\u00fdhodami pro \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd RMB jako konkurenta dolaru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zlato, \u201ebarbarsk\u00e1 relikvie\u201c, kterou John Maynard Keynes nen\u00e1vid\u00ed, bude hr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed roli, proto\u017ee dolarov\u00fd bankovn\u00ed syst\u00e9m je nefunk\u010dn\u00ed a \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 jin\u00e1 m\u011bna \u2013 nato\u017e p\u0159\u00edsn\u011b kontrolovan\u00fd RMB \u2013 jej nem\u016f\u017ee nahradit.\u00a0Zlato, kter\u00e9 je aktu\u00e1ln\u011b na historick\u00e9m maximu 2 000 dolar\u016f za unci, bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nad\u00e1le r\u016fst.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hrozbou pro hegemonii dolaru a strategickou moc, kterou Washingtonu ud\u011bluje, nen\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 snaha roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed roli RMB.\u00a0Nebezpe\u010d\u00ed poch\u00e1z\u00ed z vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00edho mechanismu, kter\u00fd umo\u017enil USA akumulovat za posledn\u00edch 30 let \u010distou negativn\u00ed vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pozici ve v\u00fd\u0161i 18 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bmeck\u00e1 vlajkov\u00e1 lo\u010f, Deutsche Bank, dos\u00e1hla 24. b\u0159ezna r\u00e1no historick\u00e9ho minima 8 eur, ne\u017e se na konci obchodn\u00edho dne zotavila na 8,69 eur a jej\u00ed pr\u00e9mie za swapy \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9ho selh\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 n\u00e1klady na poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed pod\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9ho dluhu \u2013 vzrostl na zhruba 380 bazick\u00fdch bod\u016f nad LIBOR, neboli 3,8 %.<\/span><\/p>\n

To je stejn\u00e9 jako b\u011bhem bankovn\u00ed krize v roce 2008 a evropsk\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed krize v roce 2015, i kdy\u017e ne tolik jako b\u011bhem uzam\u010den\u00ed Covid v b\u0159eznu 2020, kdy pojistn\u00e9 p\u0159es\u00e1hlo 5 %.\u00a0Deutsche Bank nepadne, ale mo\u017en\u00e1 bude pot\u0159ebovat vl\u00e1dn\u00ed podporu.\u00a0Mo\u017en\u00e1 u\u017e tu podporu dostala.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato krize je velmi odli\u0161n\u00e1 od roku 2008, kdy banky vys\u00e1ly biliony dolar\u016f v riskantn\u00edch aktivech zalo\u017een\u00fdch na \u201elh\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch p\u016fj\u010dk\u00e1ch\u201c majitel\u016fm dom\u016f.\u00a0P\u0159ed patn\u00e1cti lety byla \u00fav\u011brov\u00e1 kvalita bankovn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu propastn\u00e1 a dluhy se vymykaly kontrole.\u00a0\u00dav\u011brov\u00e1 kvalita bank je dnes nejlep\u0161\u00ed za celou generaci.\u00a0Krize pramen\u00ed z nyn\u00ed nemo\u017en\u00e9ho \u00fakolu financovat st\u00e1le rostouc\u00ed americk\u00fd zahrani\u010dn\u00ed dluh.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je to tak\u00e9 nejo\u010dek\u00e1van\u011bj\u0161\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed krize v historii.\u00a0V roce 2018 Banka pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed platby (jak\u00e1si centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka pro centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky) varovala, \u017ee kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 dolarov\u00e9 p\u016fj\u010dky ve v\u00fd\u0161i 14 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f od evropsk\u00fdch a japonsk\u00fdch bank pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch k zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed kurzov\u00fdch rizik jsou \u010dasovanou bombou \u010dekaj\u00edc\u00ed na v\u00fdbuch (\u201eHas the deriv\u00e1tov\u00e1 sopka ji\u017e za\u010dala vybuchovat?\u201c, 9. \u0159\u00edjna 2018).<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e v b\u0159eznu 2020 za\u010daly blok\u00e1dy Covid, do\u0161lo ke sp\u011bchu po dolarov\u00fdch p\u016fj\u010dk\u00e1ch, co\u017e zp\u016fsobilo n\u00e1hl\u00fd nedostatek bankovn\u00edho financov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m uhasil po\u017e\u00e1r t\u00edm, \u017ee poskytl zahrani\u010dn\u00edm centr\u00e1ln\u00edm bank\u00e1m miliardy dolar\u016f ve swapov\u00fdch link\u00e1ch.\u00a019. b\u0159ezna roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila tyto swapov\u00e9 linky.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Zdroj: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bank for International Settlements<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

V souladu s t\u00edm dolarov\u00e1 bilance glob\u00e1ln\u00edho bankovn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu, m\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 objemem zahrani\u010dn\u00edch pohled\u00e1vek v glob\u00e1ln\u00edm bankovn\u00edm syst\u00e9mu, explodovala.\u00a0To otev\u0159elo novou zranitelnost, a to riziko protistrany, tj. vystaven\u00ed bank enormn\u00edm mno\u017estv\u00edm kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch \u00fav\u011br\u016f jin\u00fdm bank\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Zdroj: Banka pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed platby<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Chronick\u00e9 deficity b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho \u00fa\u010dtu Ameriky za posledn\u00edch 30 let se rovn\u00e1 sm\u011bn\u011b komodit za pap\u00edr: Amerika nakupuje v\u00edce komodit, ne\u017e prod\u00e1v\u00e1, a prod\u00e1v\u00e1 aktiva (akcie, dluhopisy, nemovitosti atd.) cizinc\u016fm, aby vyrovnala rozd\u00edl.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dnes Amerika dlu\u017e\u00ed zahrani\u010d\u00ed 18 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f \u010dist\u00e9ho, co\u017e je zhruba kumulativn\u00ed sou\u010det t\u011bchto deficit\u016f za 30 let.\u00a0Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee cizinci, kte\u0159\u00ed vlastn\u00ed americk\u00e1 aktiva, dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed toky v dolarech, ale mus\u00ed utr\u00e1cet pen\u00edze ve sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed m\u011bn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159i kol\u00edsaj\u00edc\u00edch sm\u011bnn\u00fdch kurzech je hodnota pen\u011b\u017en\u00edch tok\u016f dolaru v eurech, japonsk\u00fdch jenech nebo \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch RMB nejist\u00e1.\u00a0Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed investo\u0159i mus\u00ed zajistit sv\u00e9 dolarov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee mus\u00ed shortovat americk\u00e9 dolary v\u016f\u010di sv\u00fdm vlastn\u00edm m\u011bn\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z tohoto d\u016fvodu do\u0161lo k prudk\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu forwardov\u00e9ho devizov\u00e9ho trhu spolu s americk\u00fdmi zahrani\u010dn\u00edmi z\u00e1vazky.\u00a0Mechanismus je jednoduch\u00fd: pokud dost\u00e1v\u00e1te dolary, ale plat\u00edte v eurech, prod\u00e1vejte dolary za eura, abyste si zajistili kurzov\u00e9 riziko.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale va\u0161e banka si mus\u00ed p\u016fj\u010dit dolary a p\u016fj\u010dit v\u00e1m je, ne\u017e je budete moci prodat.\u00a0Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed banky si mo\u017en\u00e1 p\u016fj\u010dily 18 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f od americk\u00fdch bank na financov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed.\u00a0To vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed obrovskou zranitelnost: pokud se banka jev\u00ed jako riskantn\u00ed, jako tomu bylo v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Credit Suisse na za\u010d\u00e1tku tohoto m\u011bs\u00edce, banky v glob\u00e1ln\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku st\u00e1hne sv\u00e9 \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 linky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nic z toho nebylo nutn\u00e9 p\u0159ed rokem 1971, kdy centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky dr\u017eely sm\u011bnn\u00e9 kurzy na pevn\u00fdch \u00farovn\u00edch a Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty pokryly sv\u016fj relativn\u011b mal\u00fd deficit b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho \u00fa\u010dtu p\u0159evodem zlata do zahrani\u010dn\u00edch centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank za pevnou cenu 35 dolar\u016f za unci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Konec nav\u00e1z\u00e1n\u00ed zlata na dolar a nov\u00fd re\u017eim plovouc\u00edch sm\u011bnn\u00fdch kurz\u016f umo\u017enily Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm dos\u00e1hnout masivn\u00edch deficit\u016f b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho \u00fa\u010dtu prodejem sv\u00fdch aktiv sv\u011btu.\u00a0Populace Evropy a Japonska st\u00e1rla rychleji ne\u017e populace USA a m\u011bla odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pot\u0159ebu spo\u0159en\u00ed na d\u016fchod.\u00a0Toto uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed nyn\u00ed \u010del\u00ed o\u0161kliv\u00e9mu konci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jist\u00fdm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtkem glob\u00e1ln\u00edho syst\u00e9mov\u00e9ho rizika je cena zlata, a zejm\u00e9na cena zlata versus alternativn\u00ed zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed proti neo\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 inflaci.\u00a0V letech 2007 a\u017e 2021 ceny zlata sledovaly index US Treasury Index (\u201eTIPS\u201c) s korelac\u00ed asi 90 %.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od roku 2022 v\u0161ak cena zlata rostla, zat\u00edmco cena TIPS klesala.\u00a0N\u011bco podobn\u00e9ho se stalo po sv\u011btov\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed krizi v roce 2008, ale pohyb za posledn\u00ed rok byl mnohem extr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0N\u00ed\u017ee je uveden zbytek regrese ceny zlata v\u016f\u010di 5let\u00fdm a 10let\u00fdm TIP\u016eM.<\/span><\/p>\n

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AsiaTimes<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

P\u0159i pohledu na stejn\u00e1 data v bodov\u00e9m grafu je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee zat\u00edmco line\u00e1rn\u00ed vztah mezi zlatem a TIPS z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1ra i sklon se posunuly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trh se ob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee n\u00e1kup ochrany proti inflaci americkou vl\u00e1dou je jako cestuj\u00edc\u00ed Titaniku, kte\u0159\u00ed si od kapit\u00e1na kupuj\u00ed poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed ztroskot\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Trh se zlatem je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velk\u00fd a rozmanit\u00fd na to, aby se dal manipulovat.\u00a0Nikdo moc nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed americk\u00e9mu CPI, kter\u00fd se pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 jako m\u011b\u0159\u00edtko pro v\u00fdplaty TIPS.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Dolarov\u00fd rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m neskon\u010d\u00ed s t\u0159eskem, ale s k\u0148u\u010den\u00edm.\u00a0Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky zakro\u010d\u00ed, aby zabr\u00e1nily dramatick\u00fdm kolaps\u016fm.\u00a0Bilance bank se ale zmen\u0161\u00ed, \u00fav\u011bry re\u00e1ln\u00e9 ekonomice poklesnou a zejm\u00e9na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u00fav\u011bry se uvoln\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na okraj, financov\u00e1n\u00ed v m\u00edstn\u00ed m\u011bn\u011b nahrad\u00ed dolarov\u00e9 p\u016fj\u010dky.\u00a0U\u017e jsme to vid\u011bli v Turecku, jeho\u017e m\u011bna v letech 2019 a\u017e 2021 implodovala, kdy\u017e zem\u011b ztratila p\u0159\u00edstup k financov\u00e1n\u00ed v dolarech a eurech.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed financov\u00e1n\u00ed do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry nahradilo dolar a podpo\u0159ilo pozoruhodn\u00fd hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd obrat Turecka v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce.\u00a0Jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie se bude v\u00edce spol\u00e9hat na sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed m\u011bny a RMB.\u00a0Dollar Frog bude va\u0159it v pomal\u00fdch kroc\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed sankce proti Rusku v uplynul\u00e9m roce p\u0159im\u011bly \u010c\u00ednu, Rusko, Indii a zem\u011b Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu k nalezen\u00ed alternativn\u00edch zdroj\u016f financov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Nejedn\u00e1 se o pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed jev, ale o drah\u00fd, neefektivn\u00ed a t\u011b\u017ekop\u00e1dn\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak obej\u00edt bankovn\u00ed syst\u00e9m v americk\u00fdch dolarech.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak se v\u0161ak dolarov\u00e9 p\u016fj\u010dky sni\u017euj\u00ed, tato alternativn\u00ed uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed se stanou trvalou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9ho prost\u0159ed\u00ed a ostatn\u00ed m\u011bny budou v\u016f\u010di dolaru nad\u00e1le posilovat.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Bankovn\u00ed krize nen\u00ed \u00fav\u011brovou z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed, ale pramen\u00ed z nyn\u00ed nemo\u017en\u00e9ho \u00fakolu financovat st\u00e1le rostouc\u00ed americk\u00fd…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":12444,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[503,1324,3305,371,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25255"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25255"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25255\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25256,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25255\/revisions\/25256"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12444"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}