{"id":25118,"date":"2023-03-25T13:56:42","date_gmt":"2023-03-25T12:56:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=25118"},"modified":"2023-03-25T19:53:45","modified_gmt":"2023-03-25T18:53:45","slug":"spengler-proc-ukrajina-jeste-rada-prijme-cinsky-mirovy-plan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/03\/25\/spengler-proc-ukrajina-jeste-rada-prijme-cinsky-mirovy-plan\/","title":{"rendered":"Spengler: Pro\u010d Ukrajina je\u0161t\u011b r\u00e1da p\u0159ijme \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd m\u00edrov\u00fd pl\u00e1n"},"content":{"rendered":"
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To nejpodstatn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, co z ned\u00e1vn\u00e9ho setk\u00e1n\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00fdch nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, zpravodajc\u016f a v\u011bdc\u016f z \u00e9ry Reagana a\u017e Trumpa vze\u0161lo jako zpr\u00e1va nejjasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, bylo konstatov\u00e1n\u00ed pochmurn\u00fdch vyhl\u00eddek Ukrajiny na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed nad Ruskem. Jeden z \u0159e\u010dn\u00edk\u016f na tomto shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed nap\u0159. konstatoval, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00fd prezident Zelenskyj, kter\u00fd u\u017e v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b poc\u00edt\u00ed nedostatek vycvi\u010den\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f i munice, by mohl, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pak po \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9m \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed ir\u00e1nsko-saudsk\u00e9ho sporu, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd m\u00edrov\u00fd pl\u00e1n zv\u00e1\u017eit. N\u011bkolik des\u00edtek \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f, z nich\u017e mnoz\u00ed zast\u00e1vali funkce v b\u00fdval\u00fdch americk\u00fdch vl\u00e1d\u00e1ch, se podle pravidel tohoto setk\u00e1n\u00ed zvan\u00e9ho Chatman House, (je\u017e sice zakazuj\u00ed identifikaci jednotliv\u00fdch \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f, ale umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed p\u0159ednesen\u00ed jejich n\u00e1zoru), se coby drtiv\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina diskutuj\u00edc\u00edch p\u0159iklonila k eskalaci konfliktu poskytnut\u00edm dal\u0161\u00edch zbran\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e jeden z analytik\u016f dokonce navrhl vytvo\u0159en\u00ed \u201ezahrani\u010dn\u00ed legie\u201c bojovn\u00edk\u016f z jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed, z n\u00ed\u017e by ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da dopl\u0148ovala st\u00e1le rostouc\u00ed \u00fabytek sv\u00fdch \u0159\u00e1dn\u011b vycvi\u010den\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f.<\/p>\n

Tato v\u011bt\u0161ina diskutuj\u00edc\u00edch t\u00e9\u017e up\u0159ednostnila riskov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u0161ech mo\u017enost\u00ed pro absolutn\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed nad Ruskem a nikdo z nich naopak slovem nezm\u00ednil v\u00fdstrahu, je\u017e k riziku eskalace konfliktu a\u017e k jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lce vyslovil 17. kv\u011btna m.r. Donald Trump.<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zce, jak by rusko-ukrajinsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka mohla vy\u00fastit v \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed konflikt, se zkr\u00e1tka pozornost nev\u011bnovala, a frustrace se dostavila a\u017e v okam\u017eiku, kdy se za\u010dalo diskutovat o mo\u017enostech Ukrajiny Rusko porazit. A to i za podm\u00ednky, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad k dosa\u017een\u00ed tohoto c\u00edle vynalo\u017e\u00ed ve\u0161ker\u00e9 sv\u00e9\u00a0 \u00fasil\u00ed a bude eskalaci konfliktu i nad\u00e1le riskovat.<\/p>\n

\u201eNem\u011blo by n\u00e1s p\u0159ekvapit\u201c, \u0159ekl jeden z hlavn\u00edch \u0159e\u010dn\u00edk\u016f v z\u00e1v\u011bru tohoto konklave \u201ekdyby ukrajinsk\u00fd prezident \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd m\u00edrov\u00fd pl\u00e1n p\u0159ijal. Nikdo na Z\u00e1pad\u011b p\u0159ece nep\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna bude nakonec tou zem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 se stane zprost\u0159edkovatelem mezi Saudskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed a Ir\u00e1nem. A a\u010dkoli Washington \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd m\u00edrov\u00fd pl\u00e1n zam\u00edtl, Zelenskyj tak neu\u010dinil. Tento \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd pl\u00e1n, kter\u00fd p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee Rusko by si ponechalo Azovsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e a v\u011bt\u0161inu osad v Donbasu, by se pro Ukrajinu mohl st\u00e1t p\u0159ijateln\u00fdm v\u00fdchodiskem ze situace, kdy ji doch\u00e1zej\u00ed jak voj\u00e1ci, tak munice. Americk\u00fd pohled\u00a0 na \u010c\u00ednu je primitivn\u00ed\u201c dodal zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd \u0159e\u010dn\u00edk, \u201e a m\u00e1 tendenci \u010d\u00ednskou sofistikovanost podce\u0148ovat\u201c.<\/p>\n

Mluv\u010d\u00ed Rady n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti \u010d\u00ednskou iniciativu, vyz\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed k p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, odm\u00edtl s t\u00edm, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed by Rusku umo\u017enilo podr\u017eet si \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 si z Ukrajiny u\u017e vzalo. \u201eUkrajina utrp\u011bla dv\u011b\u00a0 t\u0159etiny ob\u011bt\u00ed ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s ob\u011b\u0165mi Rus\u016f, ale s t\u0159etinou a\u017e \u010dtvrtinou populace rusk\u00e9, co\u017e v dlouhodob\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku dokazuje men\u0161\u00ed schopnost Ukrajiny v t\u00e9to v\u00e1lce pokra\u010dovat\u201c, \u0159ekl expert, kter\u00fd na Ukrajin\u011b p\u016fsobil mnoho m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.\u201c Cel\u00e1 ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da, kterou NATO vycvi\u010dilo v letech 2014 a\u017e 2022 v r\u00e1mci p\u0159\u00edpravy na st\u0159et s Ruskem, je mrtv\u00e1 a rekruti jsou do bojov\u00fdch lini\u00ed vrh\u00e1ni s t\u0159\u00edt\u00fddenn\u00edm v\u00fdcvikem. Nejlep\u0161\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fd voj\u00e1ci u\u017e byli ve v\u00e1lce zabiti. P\u0159itom nejde jen o to, \u017ee Ukrajin\u011b doslova doch\u00e1zej\u00ed \u017eiv\u00e1 t\u011bla, ale zhor\u0161uje se i kvalita jej\u00edch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil v\u0161eobecn\u011b, a to voj\u00e1k\u016f i d\u016fstojn\u00edk\u016f. Kritick\u00e9 obory civiln\u00ed ekonomiky se hrout\u00ed a spolu s t\u00edm, jak se pracovn\u00ed s\u00edla p\u0159esouv\u00e1 z oblast\u00ed civiln\u00edch do arm\u00e1dy\u201c.<\/p>\n

Citovan\u00fd odborn\u00edk odhaduje \u201eneobnoviteln\u00e9\u201c ob\u011bti Ukrajiny, to je zabit\u00e9 \u010di v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zran\u011bn\u00e9, na dv\u011b t\u0159etiny ob\u011bt\u00ed rusk\u00fdch. To znamen\u00e1 120 000 ob\u011bt\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch ke 150 000\u00a0 a\u017e 200 000 ob\u011bt\u00ed rusk\u00fdch. Jin\u00e9 odhady jsou pro Ukrajinu o n\u011bco vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, ale strategick\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br z nich je toto\u017en\u00fd: S mnohem mohutn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed arm\u00e1dou vyhraje opot\u0159ebov\u00e1vac\u00ed v\u00e1lku Rusko. Jeden ukrajinsk\u00fd prapor ztratil v lednu 600 mu\u017e\u016f, pak z\u00edskal 700 n\u00e1hradn\u00edk\u016f a pot\u00e9 v \u00fanoru ztratil 800 mu\u017e\u016f \u2013 co\u017e p\u0159edtavuje \u0161edes\u00e1tiprocentn\u00ed ztr\u00e1tu voj\u00e1k\u016f za dva m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/p>\n

\u201eVyhl\u00eddky na p\u0159elom situace, kter\u00fd by mohl ukon\u010dit st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed patovou situaci\u00a0 na front\u00e1ch, jsou \u0161patn\u00e9\u201c, \u0159ekl citovan\u00fd expert. \u201eO\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e1 jarn\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva je jedn\u00edm z nejv\u00edce o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdch man\u00e9vr\u016f vojensk\u00e9 historie a Rusko m\u011blo dost \u010dasu na p\u0159\u00edpravu obrann\u00fdch pozic. Podle n\u00e1zoru jednoho z odborn\u00edk\u016f by Ukrajina k \u00fasp\u011bchu pot\u0159ebovala\u00a0 650 modern\u00edch tank\u016f a 1 000 bojov\u00fdch transport\u00e9r\u016f, zat\u00edmco jin\u00fd americk\u00fd expert uvedl, \u017ee USA by m\u011bly na Ukrajinu poslat 1 000 tank\u016f Abrams. Odkud by je ov\u0161em m\u011bly vz\u00edt neuvedl. Stejn\u011b jako neuvedl, odkud by m\u011bly vz\u00edt zbran\u011b, kter\u00fdmi by Ukrajinci, dle jeho n\u00e1padu, m\u011bly za\u00fato\u010dit na c\u00edle hlubko v Rusku. \u201eJestli\u017ee za dva roky nebudeme schopni poskytnout Ukrajin\u011b opravdu v\u00fdznamnou pomoc, bude lep\u0161\u00ed, kdy\u017e sn\u00ed\u017e\u00edme sv\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty u\u017e te\u010f\u201c, \u0159ekl expert.<\/p>\n

Z Asia Times vybral a p\u0159elo\u017eil Lubom\u00edr Man<\/em><\/p>\n

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To nejpodstatn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, co z ned\u00e1vn\u00e9ho setk\u00e1n\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00fdch nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, zpravodajc\u016f a v\u011bdc\u016f z \u00e9ry…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19810,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[30,565,1505,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25118"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25118"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25118\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19810"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}