{"id":2483,"date":"2021-06-13T06:40:29","date_gmt":"2021-06-13T04:40:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=2483"},"modified":"2021-06-13T06:40:29","modified_gmt":"2021-06-13T04:40:29","slug":"volby-by-vyhrali-pirati-se-stan-tvrdi-pruzkum-opravdu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2021\/06\/13\/volby-by-vyhrali-pirati-se-stan-tvrdi-pruzkum-opravdu\/","title":{"rendered":"Volby by vyhr\u00e1li Pir\u00e1ti se STAN, tvrd\u00ed pr\u016fzkum. Opravdu?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p>V\u00edt\u011bzem voleb by se v kv\u011btnu stala koalice Pir\u00e1t\u016f a STAN se ziskem 23,7 procenta, vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 z volebn\u00edho modelu agentury Ipsos pro koalici Spolu. Ta by m\u011bla 23,1 procenta hlas\u016f a hnut\u00ed ANO 22,1 procenta.<\/p>\n<p>_______<br \/>\nCo o tom\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/aeronet.cz\/news\/jak-funguji-ceske-medialni-agentury-pro-pruzkum-verejneho-mineni-exkluzivni-vypoved-zamestnance-o-praktikach-spin-doctoringu-planovani-vysledku-pruzkumu-prefabrikace-volebnich-preferenci-ovlivnov\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed zam\u011bstnanci pr\u016fzkumn\u00e9 agentury<\/a>: \u201eNa pr\u016fzkumech se pod\u00edl\u00ed vzorek tzv. \u201evybran\u00fdch respondent\u016f\u201c. To jsou osoby, kter\u00e9 s na\u0161\u00ed agenturou spolupracuj\u00ed. My o nich m\u00e1me sociologick\u00fd a profesn\u00ed profil, zn\u00e1m\u00e9 jejich rodiny, p\u0159\u00e1tele, zam\u011bstn\u00e1n\u00ed, rodinn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edjem a v\u0161e ostatn\u00ed, abychom mohli respondenta za\u0159adit do ur\u010dit\u00e9 soci\u00e1ln\u00ed skupin. Obecn\u011b m\u016f\u017eeme \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee zn\u00e1me dop\u0159edu reakci respondenta na ur\u010dit\u00e9 t\u00e9ma s p\u0159esnost\u00ed p\u0159evy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed 90% pravd\u011bpodobnosti. Dok\u00e1\u017eeme tedy napl\u00e1novat v\u00fdsledek zadan\u00e9ho pr\u016fzkumu klienta, ani\u017e bychom zfal\u0161ovali jedin\u00fd checkbox. Nikdo nefal\u0161uje odpov\u011bdi respondent\u016f. My pouze zajist\u00edme, \u017ee ot\u00e1zky budou polo\u017eeny na st\u016fl vybran\u00fdm respondent\u016fm, o kter\u00fdch bezpe\u010dn\u011b v\u00edme, \u017ee odpov\u00ed podle na\u0161ich p\u0159edstav, resp. podle p\u0159edstav zadavatele. V\u011bt\u0161ina zadavatel\u016f nechce zjistit n\u00e1zor ve\u0159ejnosti, ale chce potvrdit sv\u016fj p\u0159edpoklad. Tyto pr\u016fzkumy formuj\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed: nerozhodnut\u00ed voli\u010di maj\u00ed tendenci novou stranu vyzkou\u0161et a hlasovat pro n\u00ed. Politick\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna nerozhodnut\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f je v \u010cR obrovsk\u00e1. Jsou to lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed r\u00e1di experimentuj\u00ed, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 neradi d\u00e1vaj\u00ed hlas n\u011bkomu, kdo se do sn\u011bmovny nedostane. My tedy p\u0159iprav\u00edme podm\u00ednky k tomu, aby byli p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee nov\u00e9 hnut\u00ed m\u00e1 trval\u00fd r\u016fst a ur\u010dit\u011b se do sn\u011bmovny dostane. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b V\u011bc\u00ed Ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch a hnut\u00ed ANO se n\u00e1m to povedlo. Prefabrikace ANO za\u010dala fungovat v poctiv\u00fdch empirick\u00fdch pr\u016fzkumech na p\u0159elomu srpna a z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2013. Ve\u0159ejnost tehdy kone\u010dn\u011b vzala r\u016fst prefabrikovan\u00fdch preferenc\u00ed ANO za sv\u016fj n\u00e1zor a lid\u00e9 opravdu pro ANO nakonec hlasovali.\u201c<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V\u00edt\u011bzem voleb by se v kv\u011btnu stala koalice Pir\u00e1t\u016f a STAN se ziskem 23,7 procenta,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":715,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[137,620,424,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2483"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2483"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2483\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}