{"id":24766,"date":"2023-03-20T00:58:18","date_gmt":"2023-03-19T23:58:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=24766"},"modified":"2023-03-20T05:13:04","modified_gmt":"2023-03-20T04:13:04","slug":"zbynek-fiala-napeti-na-bankovnim-trhu-trva","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/03\/20\/zbynek-fiala-napeti-na-bankovnim-trhu-trva\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Nap\u011bt\u00ed na bankovn\u00edm trhu trv\u00e1"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Uti\u0161en\u00ed paniky, kter\u00e1 hrozila americk\u00fdm bank\u00e1m po p\u00e1du SVB, zat\u00edm st\u00e1lo jen p\u0159es diskontn\u00ed ok\u00e9nko Fed 153 miliard dolar\u016f. To je v\u00edc, ne\u017e tudy proteklo na za\u010d\u00e1tku finan\u010dn\u00ed krize 2008.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Ot\u0159esy americk\u00fdch bank se p\u0159enesly na konci minul\u00e9ho t\u00fddne i do Evropy. Na \u0159ad\u011b byla z\u00e1chrana \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9 banky Credit Swiss. Ta zat\u00edm nen\u00ed u konce, p\u0159esto\u017ee nebyla levn\u00e1. \u0160v\u00fdcarsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka j\u00ed poskytla mimo\u0159\u00e1dnou p\u016fj\u010dku v\u00a0hodnot\u011b 54 miliard dolar\u016f a sou\u010dasn\u011b se rozeb\u011bhla jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee by banku p\u0159evzal jej\u00ed tradi\u010dn\u00ed rival UBS, s\u00eddl\u00edc\u00ed na prot\u011bj\u0161\u00ed stran\u011b cury\u0161sk\u00e9ho n\u00e1m\u011bst\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech te\u010dou pen\u00edze je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm proudem. Spou\u0161t\u011b\u010di krize, kalifornsk\u00e9 SVB chyb\u011bla hotovost, kdy\u017e se polekan\u00ed vkladatel\u00e9 dozv\u011bd\u011bli o ztr\u00e1t\u00e1ch zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch poklesem ocen\u011bn\u00ed star\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f v d\u016fsledku r\u016fstu z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 m\u00edry. To spustilo lavinu a vkladatel\u00e9 se rozeb\u011bhli pro v\u00fdb\u011bry i do dal\u0161\u00edch region\u00e1ln\u00edch bank. Ohro\u017een\u00e9 banky se pak se\u0161ly u posledn\u00ed instance, \u201ediskontn\u00edho ok\u00e9nka\u201c Feder\u00e1ln\u00edch rezerv, ze kter\u00e9ho si mohou vyp\u016fj\u010dit hotovost a\u017e na 90 dn\u00ed. B\u00fdv\u00e1 relativn\u011b drah\u00e1, nyn\u00ed za 4,85 %, proto o tuto slu\u017ebu b\u011b\u017en\u011b nikdo nezavad\u00ed. Av\u0161ak ve st\u0159edu 15. b\u0159ezna se tudy vyvalil rekordn\u00ed objem hotovosti za 153 miliard dolar\u016f, hl\u00e1s\u00ed Washington Post. P\u0159ekonal se tak p\u0159edchoz\u00ed rekord 111 miliard dolar\u016f z\u00a0\u010das\u016f finan\u010dn\u00ed krize 2008. Podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v Fed tentokr\u00e1t upustil od \u00faro\u010den\u00ed.<\/p>\n

I z cdal\u0161\u00edch zpr\u00e1v je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee Fed a ministerstvo financ\u00ed USA d\u011blaj\u00ed v\u0161e pro to, aby zastavily paniku. V\u00a0prvn\u00ed dvou bank\u00e1ch, kter\u00e9 u\u017e se ocitly pod vodou, budou vr\u00e1ceny ve\u0161ker\u00e9 pen\u00edze vkladatel\u016f, nejen t\u011bch, kter\u00e9 se vejdou do limitu 250 tis\u00edc dolar\u016f. To proto, \u017ee t\u0159eba v\u00a0SVB by ut\u0159elo dev\u011bt z\u00a0deseti vkladatel\u016f, sest\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch hlavn\u011b z\u00a0rizikov\u00fdch fond\u016f v\u00a0digit\u00e1ln\u00edm a dal\u0161\u00edm inova\u010dn\u00edm sektoru. Jejich vklady byly \u010dasto v\u00a0des\u00edtk\u00e1ch milion\u016f a slou\u017eily jako zdroj pro provozn\u00ed platby, nap\u0159\u00edklad mzdy, v\u00a0tomto oboru.<\/p>\n

Investo\u0159i chr\u00e1n\u011bni nejsou a \u010dek\u00e1 je smutn\u00e9 probuzen\u00ed. Polekan\u00ed klienti region\u00e1ln\u00edch bank se p\u0159esouvaj\u00ed k\u00a0t\u011bm v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm, tak\u017ee krv\u00e1cen\u00ed vklad\u016f pokra\u010duje. To samoz\u0159ejm\u011b ovliv\u0148uje hodnotu akci\u00ed, navazuje propad akciov\u00e9ho trhu. P\u0159i\u010dt\u011bme k\u00a0n\u011bmu ztr\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 tyto banky utrp\u011bly p\u0159i p\u0159ecen\u011bn\u00ed portfolia dluhopis\u016f. To je hodn\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd soub\u011bh ud\u00e1lost\u00ed. Kles\u00e1 objem vklad\u016f a hubne tak zdroj zisku, sou\u010dasn\u011b rostou kapit\u00e1lkov\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty ve spravovan\u00e9m\u00a0majetku bank a k\u00a0tomu se sni\u017euje tr\u017en\u00ed ocen\u011bn\u00ed bankovn\u00edch akci\u00ed. Banky to budou m\u00edt t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9, a\u017e zkus\u00ed z\u00edskat nov\u00e9 pen\u00edze z\u00a0trhu pro pos\u00edlen\u00ed kapit\u00e1lu.<\/p>\n

List Wall Street Journal p\u0159inesl zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 nahl\u00e9dnut\u00ed do pozad\u00ed t\u011bchto ot\u0159es\u016f. Obr\u00e1til se toti\u017e tok pen\u011bz. V roce 2020 klesal z\u00e1jem o \u00fav\u011bry a hromadily se vklady, pro kter\u00e9 nebylo uplatn\u011bn\u00ed. Kdy\u017e pak na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2021 p\u0159i\u0161la b\u00edda, propad \u00fav\u011br\u016f byl je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed a prudce poklesla i m\u00edra \u00faspor. Na ja\u0159e 2021 nastalo o\u017eiven\u00ed, trend \u00fav\u011br\u016f za\u010dal obracet, ale m\u00edra \u00faspor stagnovala. Letos u\u017e jsou depozita v\u00a0jasn\u00e9m meziro\u010dn\u00edm poklesu, a to je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed bankovn\u00ed kriz\u00ed. To by se celkem dalo ust\u00e1t, kdyby banky m\u011bly v\u00edc vlastn\u00edho kapit\u00e1lu. Ten jim v\u0161ak chyb\u011bl, a tak za\u010daly v\u00e1znout ve ztr\u00e1t\u00e1ch dluhopisov\u00e9ho portfolia po zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 m\u00edry, kdy se jim vypa\u0159ilo n\u011bjak\u00fdch 600 miliard dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

Na druhou stanu, tyhle banky n\u011bco um\u00ed a reprezentuj\u00ed dost nenahraditelnou slu\u017ebu. A tak ty, co u\u017e propadly hrdlem, aktivuj\u00ed mechanismy \u201e\u017eivota po \u017eivot\u011b\u201c. U SVB byl zat\u00edm ohl\u00e1\u0161en jen p\u00e1d mate\u0159sk\u00e9ho holdingu SVB Financial Group. Skupina je nyn\u00ed pod ochranou 11. kapitoly insolven\u010dn\u00edho z\u00e1kona, kter\u00e1 nab\u00edz\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost pro reorganizaci podniku. Jedn\u00e1 se o z\u00e1chranu zbyl\u00e9 hodnoty ve zm\u011bn\u011bn\u00e9m uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

SVB chyb\u011blo m\u00e1lo, ne\u017e spustila panika. Kdy\u017e se pak paniku poda\u0159ilo uhasit p\u0159es nov\u00fd speci\u00e1ln\u00ed fond feder\u00e1ln\u00edho ministerstva financ\u00ed a zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 diskontn\u00ed ok\u00e9nko, znovu vystoupila do pop\u0159ed\u00ed hodnota jedine\u010dn\u00e9 slu\u017eby. SVB obsluhovala polovinu americk\u00e9ho inova\u010dn\u00edho sektoru, jak rizikov\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu (VC), kter\u00fd je hlavn\u00edm partnerem nov\u00fdch firem, tak inova\u010dn\u00edch firem samotn\u00fdch. Proto se z\u00a0popela zk\u00e1zy vyno\u0159ila nov\u00e1 Silicon Valley Bridge Bank, vytvo\u0159en\u00e1 pod k\u0159\u00eddly feder\u00e1ln\u00edho fondu pro poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vklad\u016f, kter\u00fd na n\u011bjak\u00fd \u010das p\u0159evzal jej\u00ed z\u00e1vazky. Zachr\u00e1nily se tak\u00e9 SVB Capital, financuj\u00edc\u00ed \u00favodn\u00ed operace rizikov\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu, a SVB Securities, obchodn\u00edk s\u00a0cenn\u00fdmi pap\u00edry odkoupen\u00fd vlastn\u00edm managementem.<\/p>\n

Hotovostn\u00ed panika by nebyla \u017e\u00e1dnou novinkou ani v\u00a0\u010cesku, proto\u017ee p\u0159ib\u00fdv\u00e1 podnik\u016f i dom\u00e1cnostn\u00ed, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pot\u00ed\u017ee s\u00a0energetickou kriz\u00ed a jej\u00edmi infla\u010dn\u00edmi d\u016fsledky. P\u016fj\u010dit si prakticky nelze p\u0159i dne\u0161n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e a krajn\u00edch obav\u00e1ch z budoucnosti. Kdo n\u011bco m\u00e1 uspo\u0159eno, ten po tom s\u00e1hne v\u00a0nad\u011bji, \u017ee to snad proboha za p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f p\u0159ejde. A kdyby ne?<\/p>\n

Jistota je jen v\u00a0tom, \u017ee u n\u00e1s to nebude krize inova\u010dn\u00edho kapit\u00e1lu. Ten prakticky nem\u00e1me. Rizikov\u00e9 fondy to v\u00a0\u010cesku p\u00e1rkr\u00e1t v\u00a0minulosti zkou\u0161ely, ale rychle nar\u00e1\u017eely na meze sv\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed i po\u017eadavk\u016f. Slu\u017eba byla drah\u00e1 a vyhl\u00eddky chud\u00e9, proto\u017ee dom\u00e1c\u00ed trh je mal\u00fd a popt\u00e1vka po nov\u00e9 v\u00fdrob\u011b miziv\u00e1. Skoro nic n\u00e1m tu nepat\u0159\u00ed, vyv\u00edjet nen\u00ed pro koho.<\/p>\n

Inovace v\u00a0\u010cesku jsou plavbou po Mrtv\u00e9m mo\u0159i. Ne\u00fasp\u011bch inova\u010dn\u00ed my\u0161lenky znamen\u00e1 konec pro firmu i jej\u00ed veden\u00ed, \u0161\u00e9fov\u00e9 jsou ze z\u00e1kona n\u011bkolik let vylou\u010deni ze hry. Pro rizikov\u00fd kapit\u00e1l i za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00ed firmy je p\u0159itom pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee neusp\u011bj\u00ed, to je prost\u011b p\u0159\u00edroda. A\u017e \u00fasp\u011bch t\u011bch zbyl\u00fdch by to m\u011bl bohat\u011b nahradit. Americk\u00fd behavior\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonom Richard Thaler v\u00a0knize\u00a0I Am Misbehaven<\/em>\u00a0proto doporu\u010duje, aby alespo\u0148 uvnit\u0159 velk\u00fdch firem, kde to maj\u00ed pod kontrolou, hodnotili inova\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1pady nikoliv podle v\u00fdsledku, ale u\u017e kdy\u017e vzniknou, p\u0159ed realizac\u00ed. Jedin\u011b tak tv\u016frce neochrom\u00ed opatrnost, n\u00e1pad\u016f se zrod\u00ed v\u00edc a souhrnn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek bude lep\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Pen\u00edze na z\u00e1chranu bank vyd\u00e1vat um\u00edme. Pam\u011btn\u00edci vzpom\u00ednaj\u00ed, \u017ee ne\u017e se \u010desk\u00e9 banky za Zemana zprivatizovaly, dostaly obrovsk\u00e9 kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9 injekce na dopln\u011bn\u00ed po ztr\u00e1t\u00e1ch ze \u0161patn\u00fdch \u00fav\u011br\u016f a n\u011bkdy i \u010dir\u00fdch zlod\u011bjen. Objem t\u011bchto \u201etransforma\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f\u201c dos\u00e1hl astronomick\u00fdch 550 miliard korun, ale to se nepo\u010d\u00edtaly kolater\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161kody na padl\u00fdch podnic\u00edch, kter\u00fdm byl ust\u0159i\u017een obchodn\u00ed \u00fav\u011br.<\/p>\n

Je v\u0161ak ot\u00e1zka, jak by to vypadalo te\u010f. Vl\u00e1da m\u00e1 pr\u00e1zdn\u00e9 kapsy u\u017e na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku, kdy\u017e rekordn\u00ed \u00fanorov\u00fd schodek st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu dos\u00e1hl t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 120 miliard korun. D\u011bs\u00ed kombinace ne\u00fa\u010dinn\u00fdch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed, jako bylo zastropov\u00e1n\u00ed cen energie na p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 vysok\u00e9 a pro st\u00e1t p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 n\u00e1kladn\u00e9 \u00farovni, nebo \u2013 na stran\u011b \u010cNB – vysok\u00e1 \u00farokov\u00e1 m\u00edra, kter\u00e1 p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 k inflaci ne\u00fam\u011brn\u00fdmi finan\u010dn\u00edmi n\u00e1klady. P\u0159i\u010dt\u011bme v\u00fddaje na v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b a neutuchaj\u00edc\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed z\u00e1jem o n\u00e1kup co nejdra\u017e\u0161\u00edch \u00faro\u010dn\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Nezd\u00e1 se, \u017ee by vl\u00e1da byla schopn\u00e1 identifikovat re\u00e1ln\u00e1 rizika a reagovat jinak ne\u017e n\u00e1hodn\u00fdmi obrovsk\u00fdmi v\u00fddaji a zmatenou propagandou. To nem\u016f\u017ee dob\u0159e dopadnout, i kdyby banky st\u00e1ly stranou.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/strong><\/div>\n
\u017durnalista, v minulosti dlouholet\u00fd \u0161\u00e9fredaktor \u010dasopisu Ekonom.<\/em><\/div>\n
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Uti\u0161en\u00ed paniky, kter\u00e1 hrozila americk\u00fdm bank\u00e1m po p\u00e1du SVB, zat\u00edm st\u00e1lo jen p\u0159es diskontn\u00ed ok\u00e9nko…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":24544,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,503,59,371],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24766"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24766"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24766\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24544"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24766"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24766"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24766"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}