{"id":24566,"date":"2023-03-16T05:58:28","date_gmt":"2023-03-16T04:58:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=24566"},"modified":"2023-03-16T05:58:28","modified_gmt":"2023-03-16T04:58:28","slug":"michael-hudson-proc-se-bankovni-system-rozpada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/03\/16\/michael-hudson-proc-se-bankovni-system-rozpada\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Hudson: Pro\u010d se bankovn\u00ed syst\u00e9m rozpad\u00e1"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
Kolapsy Silvergate a Silicon Valley Bank jsou jako ledovce odlamuj\u00edc\u00ed se z antarktick\u00e9ho ledovce. Finan\u010dn\u00ed analogi\u00ed ke glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zp\u016fsobuje tento kolaps podp\u016frn\u00fdch pil\u00ed\u0159\u016f, je rostouc\u00ed teplota \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, kter\u00e9 minul\u00fd \u010dtvrtek a p\u00e1tek prudce vzrostly a uzav\u0159ely na 4,60 % u dvoulet\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f americk\u00e9ho ministerstva financ\u00ed. Bankovn\u00ed vkladatel\u00e9 mezit\u00edm st\u00e1le dost\u00e1vali na sv\u00fdch vkladech pouze 0,2 procenta. To vedlo k soustavn\u00e9mu stahov\u00e1n\u00ed prost\u0159edk\u016f z bank \u2013 a odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edmu poklesu hotovosti komer\u010dn\u00edch bank u FEDer\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n
V\u011bt\u0161ina zpr\u00e1v v m\u00e9di\u00edch odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed modlitbu, \u017ee run na banky bude lok\u00e1ln\u00ed, jako by neexistoval \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd kontext nebo environment\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dina. Panuj\u00ed v\u0161eobecn\u00e9 rozpaky vysv\u011btlovat, jak je rozpad bank, kter\u00fd nyn\u00ed nab\u00edr\u00e1 na obr\u00e1tk\u00e1ch, d\u016fsledkem zp\u016fsobu, jak\u00fdm Obamova administrativa v roce 2008 zachra\u0148ovala banky patn\u00e1ctilet\u00fdm kvantitativn\u00edm uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00edm, aby znovu nafoukla ceny bal\u00edk\u016f bankovn\u00edch hypot\u00e9k \u2013 a s nimi i ceny bydlen\u00ed spolu s cenami akci\u00ed a dluhopis\u016f.<\/p>\n

Kvantitativn\u00ed uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed (QE) FEDu v hodnot\u011b 9 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f (nezapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1v\u00e1 se do rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9ho deficitu) podpo\u0159ilo inflaci cen aktiv, kter\u00e1 vyd\u011blala biliony dolar\u016f dr\u017eitel\u016fm finan\u010dn\u00edch aktiv \u2013 jednomu procentu s velkorys\u00fdm vedlej\u0161\u00edm efektem pro zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed \u010dleny horn\u00edch deseti procent. N\u00e1klady na vlastnictv\u00ed dom\u016f prudce vzrostly kapitalizac\u00ed hypot\u00e9k p\u0159i klesaj\u00edc\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazb\u00e1ch do nemovitost\u00ed s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm zadlu\u017een\u00edm. Americk\u00e1 ekonomika za\u017eila nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed boom na trhu dluhopis\u016f v historii, kdy\u017e \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby klesly pod 1 %. Ekonomika se polarizovala mezi t\u0159\u00eddu v\u011b\u0159itel\u016f s kladn\u00fdm \u010dist\u00fdm jm\u011bn\u00edm a zbytek ekonomiky \u2013 jej\u00ed\u017e analogi\u00ed ke zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed a glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed bylo zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed dluhem.<\/p>\n

T\u00edm, \u017ee slou\u017e\u00ed bank\u00e1m a t\u0159\u00edd\u011b finan\u010dn\u00edch vlastn\u00edk\u016f, se v\u0161ak FED dostal do kouta: Co by se stalo, kdyby a kdy se \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby kone\u010dn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161ily?<\/p>\n

V knize\u00a0Killing the Host<\/i>\u00a0(Zab\u00edjen\u00ed hostitele) jsem psal o tom, co se zd\u00e1lo b\u00fdt dostate\u010dn\u011b z\u0159ejm\u00e9. Rostouc\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed pokles cen ji\u017e vydan\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f \u2013 spolu s cenami nemovitost\u00ed a akci\u00ed. Pr\u00e1v\u011b to se d\u011bje v r\u00e1mci boje FEDu proti \u201einflaci\u201c, co\u017e je jeho eufemismus pro odpor proti rostouc\u00ed zam\u011bstnanosti a \u00farovni mezd. Klesaj\u00ed ceny dluhopis\u016f a tak\u00e9 kapitalizovan\u00e1 hodnota bal\u00edk\u016f hypot\u00e9k a dal\u0161\u00edch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f, v nich\u017e banky dr\u017e\u00ed ve sv\u00fdch rozvah\u00e1ch sv\u00e1 aktiva na kryt\u00ed vklad\u016f.<\/p>\n

Hroz\u00ed tak, \u017ee aktiva bank klesnou pod \u00farove\u0148 jejich z\u00e1vazk\u016f z vklad\u016f, co\u017e povede k likvidaci jejich \u010dist\u00e9 hodnoty \u2013 vlastn\u00edho kapit\u00e1lu akcion\u00e1\u0159\u016f. Pr\u00e1v\u011b to hrozilo v roce 2008. K tomu do\u0161lo v extr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed podob\u011b u S&Ls a spo\u0159itelen v 80. letech 20. stolet\u00ed, co\u017e vedlo k jejich z\u00e1niku. Tito \u201efinan\u010dn\u00ed zprost\u0159edkovatel\u00e9\u201c nevytv\u00e1\u0159eli \u00fav\u011bry, jak to mohou d\u011blat komer\u010dn\u00ed banky, ale p\u016fj\u010dovali vklady formou dlouhodob\u00fdch hypot\u00e9k s fixn\u00edmi \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami, \u010dasto na 30 let. Po Volckerov\u011b skokov\u00e9m zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, kter\u00e9 zah\u00e1jilo 80. l\u00e9ta, v\u0161ak celkov\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb z\u016fstala vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, kter\u00e9 dost\u00e1valy S&Ls a spo\u0159itelny. Vkladatel\u00e9 za\u010dali vyb\u00edrat sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze, aby z\u00edskali vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy jinde, proto\u017ee S&L a spo\u0159itelny nemohly sv\u00fdm vkladatel\u016fm platit vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed sazby z v\u00fdnos\u016f plynouc\u00edch z hypot\u00e9k fixovan\u00fdch na ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed sazby. Tak\u017ee i bez podvod\u016f ve stylu Keatinga nesoulad mezi kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdmi z\u00e1vazky a dlouhodob\u00fdmi \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami ukon\u010dil jejich obchodn\u00ed pl\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

S&L dlu\u017eily vkladatel\u016fm pen\u00edze kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b, ale byly v\u00e1z\u00e1ny v dlouhodob\u00fdch aktivech s klesaj\u00edc\u00edmi cenami. Hypot\u00e9ky S&L byly samoz\u0159ejm\u011b mnohem dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b komer\u010dn\u00edch bank. Efekt rostouc\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb m\u00e1 v\u0161ak na bankovn\u00ed aktiva stejn\u00fd vliv jako na v\u0161echna finan\u010dn\u00ed aktiva. Stejn\u011b jako m\u011bl pokles \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb v r\u00e1mci QE za c\u00edl pos\u00edlit banky, mus\u00ed m\u00edt jeho dne\u0161n\u00ed zvrat opa\u010dn\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek. A pokud banky uzav\u0159ely \u0161patn\u00e9 obchody s deriv\u00e1ty, maj\u00ed probl\u00e9my.<\/p>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00e1 banka m\u00e1 probl\u00e9m udr\u017eet ocen\u011bn\u00ed sv\u00fdch aktiv vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e z\u00e1vazky z vklad\u016f. Kdy\u017e FED zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby natolik prudce, \u017ee se propadnou ceny dluhopis\u016f, struktura aktiv bankovn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu se oslab\u00ed. To je roh, do kter\u00e9ho FED ekonomiku sv\u00fdm QE zatla\u010dil.<\/p>\n

FED si samoz\u0159ejm\u011b tento probl\u00e9m uv\u011bdomuje. Proto se tak dlouho vyh\u00fdbal zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb \u2013 dokud z o\u017eiven\u00ed zam\u011bstnanosti neza\u010dalo t\u011b\u017eit doln\u00edch 99 % pracuj\u00edc\u00edch. Kdy\u017e se mzdy za\u010daly zotavovat, FED neodolal a za\u010dal v\u00e9st obvykl\u00fd t\u0159\u00eddn\u00ed boj proti pracuj\u00edc\u00edm. P\u0159itom se v\u0161ak jeho politika zm\u011bnila ve v\u00e1lku i proti bankovn\u00edmu syst\u00e9mu.<\/p>\n

Silvergate byl prvn\u00ed, kdo ode\u0161el, ale byl to zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpad. Sna\u017eila se sv\u00e9zt na vln\u011b kryptom\u011bn t\u00edm, \u017ee slou\u017eila jako banka pro r\u016fzn\u00e9 m\u011bny. Pot\u00e9, co byl odhalen rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd podvod SBF, nastal run na kryptom\u011bny. Investo\u0159i\/hr\u00e1\u010di se vypa\u0159ili. Spr\u00e1vci kryptom\u011bn museli zaplatit t\u00edm, \u017ee vy\u010derpali vklady, kter\u00e9 m\u011bli u Silvergate. Ta \u0161la ke dnu.<\/p>\n

Ne\u00fasp\u011bch Silvergate zni\u010dil velkou iluzi kryptom\u011bnov\u00fdch vklad\u016f. V\u0161eobecn\u00fd dojem byl, \u017ee krypto poskytuje alternativu ke komer\u010dn\u00edm bank\u00e1m a \u201efiat m\u011bn\u011b\u201c. Do \u010deho v\u0161ak mohly kryptofondy investovat, aby podpo\u0159ily n\u00e1kup minc\u00ed, kdy\u017e ne do bankovn\u00edch vklad\u016f a st\u00e1tn\u00edch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f nebo soukrom\u00fdch akci\u00ed a dluhopis\u016f? Co je nakonec krypto, kdy\u017e ne pouh\u00fd pod\u00edlov\u00fd fond s utajen\u00fdm vlastnictv\u00edm, kter\u00fd chr\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed pran\u00edm \u0161pinav\u00fdch pen\u011bz?<\/p>\n

Silicon Valley Bank je tak\u00e9 v mnoha ohledech zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpadem, proto\u017ee se specializuje na poskytov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fav\u011br\u016f za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00edm podnik\u016fm v oblasti IT. Banka New Republic rovn\u011b\u017e utrp\u011bla run a i ona je specializovan\u00e1, proto\u017ee poskytuje \u00fav\u011bry bohat\u00fdm vkladatel\u016fm v oblasti San Franciska a severn\u00ed Kalifornie. O runu na banky se v\u0161ak mluvilo ji\u017e minul\u00fd t\u00fdden a finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy se ot\u0159\u00e1sly v d\u016fsledku poklesu cen dluhopis\u016f, kdy\u017e p\u0159edseda FEDu Jerome Powell ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u011b pl\u00e1nuje zv\u00fd\u0161it \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce, ne\u017e d\u0159\u00edve zam\u00fd\u0161lel, a to s ohledem na rostouc\u00ed zam\u011bstnanost, d\u00edky n\u00ed\u017e se mzdov\u00ed zam\u011bstnanci vzpouzej\u00ed ve sv\u00fdch po\u017eadavc\u00edch, aby alespo\u0148 dr\u017eeli krok s inflac\u00ed zp\u016fsobenou americk\u00fdmi sankcemi proti rusk\u00fdm energetick\u00fdm a potravin\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdm produkt\u016fm a akcemi monopol\u016f, kter\u00e9 zvy\u0161uj\u00ed ceny, \u201eaby p\u0159edstihly nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed inflaci\u201c. Mzdy neudr\u017eely krok s v\u00fdslednou vysokou m\u00edrou inflace.<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee banka Silicon Valley bude muset sv\u00e9 cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry likvidovat se ztr\u00e1tou. Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ji p\u0159evezme n\u011bjak\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed banka, ale cel\u00fd finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m je v t\u00edsni. Agentura Reuters v p\u00e1tek uvedla, \u017ee bankovn\u00ed rezervy ve FEDu prudce klesaj\u00ed. To sotva p\u0159ekvap\u00ed, proto\u017ee banky vypl\u00e1cej\u00ed na vkladech asi 0,2 procenta, zat\u00edmco vkladatel\u00e9 si mohou vybrat sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze na n\u00e1kup dvoulet\u00fdch americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f s v\u00fdnosem 3,8 nebo t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 4 procenta. Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee dob\u0159e situovan\u00ed investo\u0159i z bank ut\u00edkaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Nab\u00edz\u00ed se ot\u00e1zka, pro\u010d FED jednodu\u0161e nezachr\u00e1n\u00ed banky v pozici SVB. Odpov\u011b\u010f zn\u00ed, \u017ee ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ceny finan\u010dn\u00edch aktiv vypadaj\u00ed jako nov\u00fd norm\u00e1l. Jak lze u bank se z\u00e1porn\u00fdm vlastn\u00edm kapit\u00e1lem vy\u0159e\u0161it platebn\u00ed schopnost, ani\u017e by do\u0161lo k prudk\u00e9mu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb a obnoven\u00ed patn\u00e1ctilet\u00e9 politiky nulov\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb (ZIRP)?<\/p>\n

V m\u00edstnosti je je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed slon: deriv\u00e1ty. Volatilita se minul\u00fd \u010dtvrtek a p\u00e1tek zv\u00fd\u0161ila. Zmatek dos\u00e1hl obrovsk\u00fdch rozm\u011br\u016f, kter\u00e9 p\u0159esahuj\u00ed to, co charakterizovalo krach AIG a dal\u0161\u00edch spekulant\u016f v roce 2008. JP Morgan Chase a dal\u0161\u00ed newyorsk\u00e9 banky dnes oce\u0148uj\u00ed deriv\u00e1ty \u2013 kasinov\u00e9 s\u00e1zky na to, jak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem se zm\u011bn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, ceny dluhopis\u016f, ceny akci\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed \u2013 na des\u00edtky bilion\u016f dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

Na ka\u017ed\u00fd v\u00edt\u011bzn\u00fd tip p\u0159ipad\u00e1 jeden pora\u017een\u00fd. Kdy\u017e se vsad\u00ed biliony dolar\u016f, n\u011bkter\u00fd bankovn\u00ed obchodn\u00edk ur\u010dit\u011b skon\u010d\u00ed se ztr\u00e1tou, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee snadno vymazat cel\u00fd \u010dist\u00fd kapit\u00e1l banky.<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed doch\u00e1z\u00ed k \u00fat\u011bku do \u201ehotovosti\u201c, do bezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstavu \u2013 n\u011b\u010deho je\u0161t\u011b lep\u0161\u00edho ne\u017e hotovost: americk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy. Navzdory \u0159e\u010dem o tom, \u017ee republik\u00e1ni odm\u00edtaj\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161it dluhov\u00fd strop, m\u016f\u017ee ministerstvo financ\u00ed v\u017edy vytisknout pen\u00edze, aby vyplatilo dr\u017eitele dluhopis\u016f. Vypad\u00e1 to, \u017ee ministerstvo financ\u00ed se stane nov\u00fdm depozit\u00e1\u0159em, kter\u00fd si vyberou ti, kte\u0159\u00ed maj\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed prost\u0159edky. Bankovn\u00ed vklady budou klesat. A s nimi i dr\u017eba bankovn\u00edch rezerv u FEDu.<\/p>\n

Akciov\u00fd trh zat\u00edm poklesu cen dluhopis\u016f odol\u00e1v\u00e1. Odhaduji, \u017ee nyn\u00ed budeme sv\u011bdky velk\u00e9ho odezn\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed velk\u00e9ho boomu fiktivn\u00edho kapit\u00e1lu z let 2008-2015. Tak\u017e slepice mo\u017en\u00e1 p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed hn\u00edzdit \u2013 p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e \u201eslepic\u00ed\u201c je mo\u017en\u00e1 slon\u00ed p\u0159evis deriv\u00e1t\u016f, kter\u00fd byl podpo\u0159en uvoln\u011bn\u00edm finan\u010dn\u00ed regulace a anal\u00fdzy rizik po roce 2008.<\/p>\n

\n

Why the Banking System Is Breaking Up<\/a> vy\u0161el 13.3.2023 na unz.com. P\u0159eklad Zv\u011bdavec.<\/p>\n

P\u0159evzato\u00a0Zvedavec.org<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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Kolapsy Silvergate a Silicon Valley Bank jsou jako ledovce odlamuj\u00edc\u00ed se z antarktick\u00e9ho ledovce. Finan\u010dn\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":15087,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[503,426,371,3897],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24566"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24566"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24566\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15087"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24566"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24566"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24566"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}