{"id":24446,"date":"2023-03-15T01:01:02","date_gmt":"2023-03-15T00:01:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=24446"},"modified":"2023-03-14T16:37:45","modified_gmt":"2023-03-14T15:37:45","slug":"michael-hudson-proc-se-americky-bankovni-system-hrouti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/03\/15\/michael-hudson-proc-se-americky-bankovni-system-hrouti\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Hudson: Pro\u010d se americk\u00fd bankovn\u00ed syst\u00e9m hrout\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ekonom Michael Hudson reaguje na kolaps Silicon Valley Bank a Silvergate a vysv\u011btluje podobnosti s finan\u010dn\u00edm krachem v roce 2008 a kriz\u00ed \u00faspor a \u00fav\u011br\u016f v 80. letech.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kalifornsk\u00fd specialista na kryptom\u011bny Silvergate Bank zkolaboval 8. b\u0159ezna.\u00a0O dva dny pozd\u011bji se banka Silicon Valley tak\u00e9 zhroutila v nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm bankovn\u00edm b\u011bhu v\u0161ech dob.\u00a0Silicon Valley Bank byla druh\u00fdm nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm krachem banky v historii USA a nejvlivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed instituc\u00ed, kter\u00e1 zkrachovala od krize v roce 2008.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Ekonom Michael Hudson, spolupo\u0159adatel Geopolitical Economy Hour, katastrofu analyzuje:<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Kolaps bank, k n\u011bmu\u017e nyn\u00ed doch\u00e1z\u00ed ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech, je nevyhnuteln\u00fdm d\u016fsledkem zp\u016fsobu, jak\u00fdm Obamova administrativa zachr\u00e1nila banky v roce 2008.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se ceny dom\u016f zhroutily, Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m zaplavil finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m 15 lety kvantitativn\u00edho uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed (QE), aby znovu nafoukl ceny nemovitost\u00ed \u2013 a pota\u017emo ceny akci\u00ed a dluhopis\u016f \u2013 znovu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ceny aktiv vzrostly, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm hypote\u010dn\u00edch bal\u00ed\u010dk\u016f v dr\u017een\u00ed bank, ale tak\u00e9 akci\u00ed a dluhopis\u016f obecn\u011b.\u00a0To je to, co bankovn\u00ed p\u016fj\u010dky d\u011blaj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dr\u017eitel\u016fm finan\u010dn\u00edch aktiv to p\u0159ineslo biliony dolar\u016f \u2013 1 procento a o n\u011bco v\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ekonomika se polarizovala s r\u016fstem cen akci\u00ed, prudce vzrostly ceny dom\u016f (kv\u016fli n\u00edzk\u00fdm \u00farokov\u00fdm sazb\u00e1m hypot\u00e9k) a americk\u00e1 ekonomika za\u017eila nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed boom dluhopisov\u00e9ho trhu v historii, kdy\u017e \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby klesly pod 1 %.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale s podporou finan\u010dn\u00edho sektoru se Fed zahnal do kouta.\u00a0Co by se stalo, kdyby \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby nakonec \u0161ly nahoru?<\/span><\/p>\n

Rostouc\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed pokles cen dluhopis\u016f.\u00a0A to je p\u0159esn\u011b to, co se d\u011bje v r\u00e1mci boje Fedu proti \u201einflaci\u201c, co\u017e znamen\u00e1 r\u016fst mezd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ceny dluhopis\u016f klesaj\u00ed, stejn\u011b jako kapitalizovan\u00e1 hodnota hypote\u010dn\u00edch bal\u00ed\u010dk\u016f a dal\u0161\u00edch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f, ve kter\u00fdch banky dr\u017e\u00ed sv\u00e1 aktiva pro vkladatele.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledek je podobn\u00fd situaci, ve kter\u00e9 se ocitla spo\u0159iteln\u00ed a \u00fav\u011brn\u00ed dru\u017estva (S&L), kter\u00e1 vedla v 80. letech k jejich z\u00e1niku.<\/span><\/p>\n

S&L vyd\u00e1valy dlouhodob\u00e9 hypot\u00e9ky za dostupn\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby.\u00a0Ale v pr\u016fb\u011bhu Volckerovy inflace obecn\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb vzrostla.<\/span><\/p>\n

S&L nemohly platit sv\u00fdm vkladatel\u016fm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, proto\u017ee jejich hypote\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnosy byly v\u00e1z\u00e1ny na ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed sazby.\u00a0Vkladatel\u00e9 tedy sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze vybrali.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aby z\u00edskaly pen\u00edze na v\u00fdplatu vkladatel\u016f, musely S&L prodat sv\u00e9 hypot\u00e9ky.\u00a0Nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnota tohoto dluhu v\u0161ak byla ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed kv\u016fli vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdm sazb\u00e1m.\u00a0S&L (a mnoho bank) kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b dlu\u017eily pen\u00edze vkladatel\u016fm, ale byly v\u00e1z\u00e1ny na dlouhodob\u00e1 aktiva s klesaj\u00edc\u00edmi cenami.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hypot\u00e9ky S&L byly samoz\u0159ejm\u011b mnohem dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e hypot\u00e9ky komer\u010dn\u00edch bank.\u00a0A banky pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b mohou vym\u011bnit aktiva za \u00fav\u011brovou linku Fedu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale stejn\u011b jako bylo QE usilov\u00e1no o podporu bank, jeho zru\u0161en\u00ed mus\u00ed m\u00edt opa\u010dn\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek.\u00a0A pokud banka provedla \u0161patn\u00fd obchod s deriv\u00e1ty, je v pr\u016f\u0161vihu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00e1 banka se pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s probl\u00e9mem udr\u017een\u00ed cen sv\u00fdch aktiv se sv\u00fdmi depozitn\u00edmi z\u00e1vazky.\u00a0P\u0159i kolapsu cen dluhopis\u016f je struktura aktiv banky oslabena.\u00a0To je roh, do kter\u00e9ho Fed namaloval ekonomiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozpozn\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto probl\u00e9mu p\u0159im\u011blo Fed, aby se mu vyh\u00fdbal co nejd\u00e9le.\u00a0Ale kdy\u017e zam\u011bstnanost za\u010dala r\u016fst a mzdy se za\u010daly zotavovat, Fed neodolal a vedl obvykl\u00fd t\u0159\u00eddn\u00ed boj proti d\u011bln\u00edk\u016fm.\u00a0A to se tak\u00e9 zm\u011bnilo ve v\u00e1lku s bankovn\u00edm syst\u00e9mem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Silvergate ode\u0161el jako prvn\u00ed.\u00a0Sna\u017eila se jet na vln\u011b kryptom\u011bn t\u00edm, \u017ee slou\u017eila jako banka pro r\u016fzn\u00e9 zna\u010dky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pot\u00e9, co byl odhalen obrovsk\u00fd podvod od Sama Bankmana-Frieda (SBF), do\u0161lo k \u00fatoku na kryptom\u011bny.\u00a0Jejich mana\u017ee\u0159i zaplatili v\u00fdb\u011brem sv\u00fdch vklad\u016f z bank \u2013 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm Silvergate.\u00a0\u0160lo to dol\u016f.\u00a0A se Silvergate se tak\u00e9 ztratilo mnoho kryptom\u011bnov\u00fdch vklad\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Panoval n\u00e1zor, \u017ee kryptom\u011bny nab\u00edzej\u00ed alternativu ke komer\u010dn\u00edm bank\u00e1m a \u201efiat m\u011bn\u011b\u201c.\u00a0Ale co by mohly kryptofondy investovat, aby podpo\u0159ily sv\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy minc\u00ed, kdy\u017e ne bankovn\u00ed vklady, vl\u00e1dn\u00ed cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry nebo soukrom\u00e9 akcie a dluhopisy?<\/span><\/p>\n

Koneckonc\u016f, co to bylo za kryptom\u011bnu, kdy\u017e ne jednodu\u0161e pod\u00edlov\u00fd fond s tajn\u00fdm vlastnictv\u00edm na ochranu osob, kter\u00e9 perou \u0161pinav\u00e9 pen\u00edze?<\/span><\/p>\n

Silvergate byl „zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpad“, proto\u017ee to byla speci\u00e1ln\u00ed depozitn\u00ed z\u00e1kladna.\u00a0Speci\u00e1ln\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpadem byla tak\u00e9 Silicon Valley Bank, kter\u00e1 p\u016fj\u010dovala IT startup\u016fm.\u00a0Zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpadem byla tak\u00e9 First Republic Bank, kter\u00e1 p\u016fj\u010dovala bohat\u00fdm vkladatel\u016fm v San Franciscu a severn\u00ed Kalifornii.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u0161ichni vid\u011bli, jak tr\u017en\u00ed cena jejich finan\u010dn\u00edch akci\u00ed prudce klesla, kdy\u017e p\u0159edseda p\u0159edstavenstva Jerome Powell zv\u00fd\u0161il \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby Fedu.\u00a0A nyn\u00ed byly jejich vklady sta\u017eeny, co\u017e je p\u0159inutilo prodat sv\u00e9 cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry se ztr\u00e1tou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Agentura Reuters 10. b\u0159ezna uvedla, \u017ee bankovn\u00ed rezervy ve Fedu prudce klesly.\u00a0To nen\u00ed p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9, vezmeme-li v \u00favahu, \u017ee banky plat\u00ed kolem 0,2 % z vklad\u016f, zat\u00edmco vkladatel\u00e9 si mohou vybrat sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze, aby si mohli koupit dvoulet\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy USA, kter\u00e9 vyn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed 3,8 %, tedy t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 4 %.\u00a0Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee bohat\u00ed investo\u0159i prchaj\u00ed z bank.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto je dilema, ve kter\u00e9m se banky – a za nimi FED – nach\u00e1zej\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zjevnou ot\u00e1zkou je, pro\u010d Fed nezachra\u0148uje jen banky.\u00a0Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee klesaj\u00edc\u00ed ceny dlouhodob\u00fdch bankovn\u00edch aktiv nyn\u00ed vypadaj\u00ed jako nov\u00fd norm\u00e1ln\u00ed vzhledem ke kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdm z\u00e1vazk\u016fm z vklad\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fed m\u016f\u017ee p\u016fj\u010dit bank\u00e1m na jejich sou\u010dasn\u00e9 nedostatky, ale jak lze vy\u0159e\u0161it solventnost bez drastick\u00e9ho sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, aby se obnovila 15let\u00e1 abnorm\u00e1ln\u00ed politika nulov\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb (ZIRP)?<\/span><\/p>\n

10. b\u0159ezna \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby raketov\u011b vzrostly.\u00a0S najat\u00fdm v\u00edce pracovn\u00edky, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo, Powell ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee Fed mo\u017en\u00e1 bude muset zv\u00fd\u0161it \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce, ne\u017e ozn\u00e1mil.\u00a0Volatilita se zv\u00fd\u0161ila.<\/span><\/p>\n

A s t\u00edm p\u0159i\u0161el zdroj nepokoj\u016f daleko za t\u00edm, co zp\u016fsobilo kolaps AIG a dal\u0161\u00edch spekulant\u016f v roce 2008: deriv\u00e1ty.<\/span><\/p>\n

JP Morgan Chase a dal\u0161\u00ed newyorsk\u00e9 banky maj\u00ed ve sv\u00fdch portfoli\u00edch deriv\u00e1ty v hodnot\u011b bilion\u016f dolar\u016f \u2013 to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee v kasinu s\u00e1zej\u00ed na to, jak se budou pohybovat \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, ceny dluhopis\u016f, ceny akci\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed metriky.\u00a0Pro ka\u017edou v\u00edt\u011bznou s\u00e1zku existuje pora\u017een\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159i s\u00e1zen\u00ed na biliony dolar\u016f je nevyhnuteln\u00e9, \u017ee bank\u00e9\u0159 nakonec utrp\u00ed ztr\u00e1tu, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee snadno nahlodat cel\u00fd kapit\u00e1l banky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed existuje \u00fat\u011bk do \u201ehotovosti\u201c, do bezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstavu \u2013 n\u011bco je\u0161t\u011b lep\u0161\u00edho ne\u017e hotovost: americk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy.\u00a0Navzdory \u0159e\u010dem republik\u00e1n\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed odm\u00edtaj\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161it dluhov\u00fd strop, m\u016f\u017ee ministerstvo financ\u00ed v\u017edy tisknout pen\u00edze, aby zaplatilo dr\u017eitel\u016fm dluhopis\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vypad\u00e1 to, \u017ee Treasury se stane nov\u00fdm preferovan\u00fdm skladem pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed na to maj\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed prost\u0159edky.\u00a0Bankovn\u00ed vklady se sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed.\u00a0A s nimi tak\u00e9 rezervy bank u Fedu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Akciov\u00fd trh zat\u00edm propadu cen dluhopis\u016f odol\u00e1val.\u00a0M\u00e1m podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee nyn\u00ed budeme sv\u011bdky velk\u00e9ho p\u0159eto\u010den\u00ed velk\u00e9ho fiktivn\u00edho kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9ho boomu v letech 2008-2015.<\/span><\/p>\n

Doufejme, \u017ee se ku\u0159ata dostanou do kurn\u00edku \u2013 p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e \u201eku\u0159ata\u201c jsou mo\u017en\u00e1 obrovsk\u00fdm p\u0159evisem deriv\u00e1t\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Ekonom Michael Hudson reaguje na kolaps Silicon Valley Bank a Silvergate a vysv\u011btluje podobnosti s…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":24447,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[503,45,371,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24446"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24446"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24446\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24447"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24446"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24446"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24446"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}