{"id":24376,"date":"2023-03-14T01:04:51","date_gmt":"2023-03-14T00:04:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=24376"},"modified":"2023-03-14T07:37:18","modified_gmt":"2023-03-14T06:37:18","slug":"scenare-prvni-bitvy-o-tchaj-wan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/03\/14\/scenare-prvni-bitvy-o-tchaj-wan\/","title":{"rendered":"Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e prvn\u00ed bitvy o Tchaj-wan"},"content":{"rendered":"
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USA mohou odrazit pokus o invazi, ale prohraj\u00ed, pokud \u010c\u00edna uval\u00ed na ostrov blok\u00e1du<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud by do\u0161lo k v\u00e1lce o Tchaj-wan, v\u00fdsledek pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ur\u010d\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 blok\u00e1da.\u00a0Zat\u00edmco blok\u00e1da by mohla zahrnovat i zachycen\u00ed lod\u00ed na mo\u0159i, hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem by bylo ut\u011bsn\u011bn\u00ed leti\u0161\u0165 a p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f, zejm\u00e9na na z\u00e1padn\u00edm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Tchaj-wanu.\u00a0\u010c\u00edna by mohla takovou blok\u00e1du udr\u017eovat donekone\u010dna.<\/p>\n

Prolomen\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9 blok\u00e1dy a udr\u017een\u00ed Tchaj-wanu na\u017eivu by vy\u017eadovalo, aby USA v\u00fdznamn\u011b investovaly do syst\u00e9m\u016f a opera\u010dn\u00edch koncept\u016f, kter\u00e9 v sou\u010dasnosti nem\u00e1me.\u00a0Pokud tyto investice neprovedeme, mo\u017en\u00e1 budeme schopni vyhr\u00e1t prvn\u00ed bitvu a odrazit pokus o p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Ale nem\u016f\u017eeme vyhr\u00e1t v\u00e1lku.<\/p>\n

Man\u00e9vry \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 lidov\u00e9 osvobozeneck\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy (PLA) v srpnu 2022 poprv\u00e9 otev\u0159en\u011b signalizovaly, \u017ee blok\u00e1da Tchaj-wanu pat\u0159\u00ed k vojensk\u00fdm akc\u00edm, kter\u00e9 pl\u00e1nuje a na kter\u00e9 cvi\u010d\u00ed.\u00a0\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 s\u00edly z\u0159\u00eddily no-go z\u00f3ny pobl\u00ed\u017e hlavn\u00edch tchajwansk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f pro to, co \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia nazvala \u201espole\u010dnou blok\u00e1dou a podp\u016frn\u00fdmi operacemi\u201c (\u8054\u5408\u5c01\u63a7\u548c\u8054\u5408\u4fdd\u969c\u884c\u52a8).<\/p>\n

\u0160kolen\u00ed zahrnovalo stanoven\u00ed vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 p\u0159evahy a veden\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch a pozemn\u00edch \u00fatok\u016f, stejn\u011b jako protiponorkov\u00fd boj, se zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edm odkazem na tchajwansk\u00e9 c\u00edle a tchajwansk\u00e9 s\u00edly a pot\u0159ebu zma\u0159it vstup americk\u00fdch sil do oblasti.\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed koment\u00e1to\u0159i zd\u016fraznili, \u017ee jak bl\u00edzkost tchajwansk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f, tak i obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed Tchaj-wanu byly pro cvi\u010den\u00ed CHKO bezprecedentn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Existuje riziko, \u017ee cvi\u010den\u00ed, kter\u00e1 jsme pozorovali, vytvo\u0159\u00ed fale\u0161nou v\u00edru, \u017ee prolomen\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 blok\u00e1dy by byl jednoduch\u00fd \u00fakol, kter\u00fd by sou\u010dasn\u00e9 a pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 americk\u00e9 s\u00edly mohly snadno zvl\u00e1dnout.\u00a0To by nebyl tento p\u0159\u00edpad.\u00a0Ve v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9m vojensk\u00e9m konfliktu o Tchaj-wan by bylo mnohem obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed prolomit typ blok\u00e1dy, kterou by \u010c\u00edna uvalila.\u00a0Podle \u00fasudku tohoto autora nic, co ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f v sou\u010dasnosti d\u011blaj\u00ed nebo pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed, nesta\u010d\u00ed k p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed takov\u00e9ho konfliktu.<\/p>\n

Zablokov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho kalkulu<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Integrovan\u00e1 vzdu\u0161n\u00e1, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed a informa\u010dn\u00ed blok\u00e1da ze strany Tchaj-wanu se objevuje ve \u010dty\u0159ech r\u016fzn\u00fdch form\u00e1ch v \u0159ad\u011b mo\u017enost\u00ed CHKO proti Tchaj-wanu.<\/p>\n

Jako donucovac\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed: Potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 \u00fatoky proti Tchaj-wanu spadaj\u00ed do dvou hlavn\u00edch kategori\u00ed: akce k potrest\u00e1n\u00ed a donucen\u00ed Tchaj-wanu, aby p\u0159inutil sv\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed zp\u011bt sm\u011brem, kter\u00fd je pro Peking p\u0159ijateln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b a akce k dobyt\u00ed Tchaj-wanu a vynucen\u00ed jeho chov\u00e1n\u00ed na druh\u00e1 Unie s \u010c\u00ednskou lidovou republikou (\u010cLR).<\/p>\n

Do prvn\u00ed kategorie donucovac\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed pat\u0159\u00ed \u0159in\u010den\u00ed \u0161avl\u00ed (stejn\u011b jako loni v srpnu), konfiskace mal\u00fdch ostrov\u016f kontrolovan\u00fdch Tchaj-wanem, omezen\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 a raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky a omezen\u00e1 demonstrativn\u00ed blok\u00e1da Tchaj-wanu.<\/p>\n

Pokud je Peking p\u0159ed invaz\u00ed odhodl\u00e1n dob\u00fdt Tchaj-wan, pak je jednou z jeho hlavn\u00edch mo\u017enost\u00ed velk\u00fd oboj\u017eiveln\u00fd \u00fatok.\u00a0Vytvo\u0159en\u00ed p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fdch podm\u00ednek pro p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed by vy\u017eadovalo alespo\u0148 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dnou leteckou, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed a informa\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159evahu v okol\u00ed p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Mezi podp\u016frn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed by pat\u0159ila omezen\u00e1 blok\u00e1da.<\/p>\n

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Simulovan\u00e1 invaze na Tchaj-wan.\u00a0Jak USA, tak \u010c\u00edna by v konfliktu utrp\u011bly t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty.\u00a0Obr\u00e1zek: Facebook<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Alternativa k invazi: P\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed v rozsahu pot\u0159ebn\u00e9m pro dobyt\u00ed Tchaj-wanu, zejm\u00e9na tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 energick\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 intervenci USA, by m\u011blo bezprecedentn\u00ed rozsah a slo\u017eitost s vysok\u00fdm rizikem selh\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Alternativn\u00edm postupem by bylo vzd\u00e1t se vylod\u011bn\u00ed a uvalit nejp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enou blok\u00e1du, pomalu dusit Tchaj-wan, dokud se nepodvol\u00ed nebo nezkolabuje.\u00a0Na rozd\u00edl od p\u0159edchoz\u00edch dvou variant by tato blok\u00e1da trvala tak dlouho, jak je nutn\u00e9 pro v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed \u010c\u00edny.<\/p>\n

Jako v\u00fdchodisko po ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 invazi by v\u00e1lka se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty znamenala pro \u010c\u00ednu obrovsk\u00e9 n\u00e1klady a ohrozila by v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed c\u00edle, v\u010detn\u011b udr\u017een\u00ed komunistick\u00e9 strany u moci.<\/p>\n

To plat\u00ed, i kdy\u017e \u010c\u00edna vyhraje, a ohro\u017een\u00ed p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed re\u017eimu je je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, pokud nakonec prohraje.\u00a0\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed by mohlo prodat stranick\u00fdm elit\u00e1m a ve\u0159ejnosti v\u00fdklad, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna dos\u00e1hla politick\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed navzdory vojensk\u00e9mu ne\u00fasp\u011bchu, a v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by mo\u017en\u00e1 bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159ij\u00edt s receptem na ukon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu.\u00a0Pokud by tomu tak nebylo, CHKO by pokra\u010dovala v boji jak\u00fdmkoli zp\u016fsobem, tedy neomezenou blok\u00e1dou, aby si nakonec vynutila kapitulaci.<\/p>\n

N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed diskuse se zam\u011b\u0159\u00ed na posledn\u00ed dv\u011b mo\u017enosti, ve kter\u00fdch se blok\u00e1da stane hlavn\u00edm boji\u0161t\u011bm po zbytek dlouh\u00e9ho konfliktu.\u00a0Tato zpr\u00e1va tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee zat\u00edmco \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 blok\u00e1da by mohla za\u010d\u00edt tradi\u010dn\u00edmi akcemi \u201ezastav a hledej\u201c, kter\u00fdm mohou nad\u0159azen\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed s\u00edly snadno \u010delit, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 opera\u010dn\u00ed doktr\u00edna, stejn\u011b jako vojensk\u00e1 a geografick\u00e1 poloha z nich \u010din\u00ed koncept operac\u00ed, kter\u00e9 budou daleko. pro americk\u00e9 s\u00edly je obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zma\u0159it.<\/p>\n

Jak \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 diskutuj\u00ed o blok\u00e1d\u011b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

V \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch teoretick\u00fdch spisech je strategick\u00e1 blok\u00e1da (\u6218\u7565\u5c01\u9501) diskutov\u00e1na jako d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd typ operace, na stejn\u00e9 \u00farovni jako operace vylod\u011bn\u00ed na ostrovech, strategick\u00e9 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 \u00fadery a vesm\u00edrn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka.<\/p>\n

Studie mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va a historick\u00fdch blok\u00e1d zkoumaj\u00ed prvn\u00ed a druhou sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku, kub\u00e1nskou raketovou krizi, americko-vietnamskou v\u00e1lku, v\u00e1lku o Falklandy a dal\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Mnoho studi\u00ed se zam\u011b\u0159uje na tradi\u010dn\u00ed operace zachycov\u00e1n\u00ed a nalo\u010fov\u00e1n\u00ed obchodn\u00edch lod\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b nevyhnuteln\u00fdch matematick\u00fdch v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f toho, jak velkou oblast m\u016f\u017ee st\u00edhac\u00ed jednotka pokr\u00fdt.\u00a0(Mezi \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdmi vojensk\u00fdmi akademiky existuje siln\u00fd proud po\u010dt\u016f opera\u010dn\u00edho v\u00fdzkumu.)<\/p>\n

Naproti tomu doktr\u00edny PLA popisuj\u00ed robustn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a v\u0161estrann\u011bj\u0161\u00ed provoz.\u00a0V\u011bda o kampan\u00edch N\u00e1rodn\u00ed obrann\u00e9 univerzity z roku 2006 popisuje \u201espole\u010dnou blok\u00e1du\u201c (\u8054\u5408\u5c01\u9501\u6218\u5f79) jako rozs\u00e1hlou, dlouhodobou operaci s c\u00edlem prosadit leteckou, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed a informa\u010dn\u00ed dominanci v z\u00f3n\u011b blok\u00e1dy, do kter\u00e9 se zapojily v\u0161echny agentury PLA jako je zapojena i lidov\u00e1 ozbrojen\u00e1 policie a lidov\u00e9 milice.<\/p>\n

Krom\u011b tradi\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch z\u00e1chytn\u00fdch a lodn\u00edch operac\u00ed zahrnuje spole\u010dn\u00e1 blok\u00e1dn\u00ed kampa\u0148 palebn\u00e9 \u00fatoky na kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na Tchaj-wanu, ni\u010den\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f a \u200b\u200bleti\u0161\u0165, t\u011b\u017ebu n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch p\u0159\u00edstup\u016f a kinetick\u00e9 i nekinetick\u00e9 \u00fatoky na informa\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9my a infrastrukturu.<\/p>\n

Je t\u0159eba poznamenat, \u017ee operace v pr\u016flivu umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed pozemn\u00edch zbran\u00ed a sil a navigace je zna\u010dn\u011b omezena.<\/p>\n

Souhrnn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, americk\u00e9 s\u00edly pokou\u0161ej\u00edc\u00ed se prolomit blok\u00e1du z pevninsk\u00e9 strany Tchajwansk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu by operovaly v \u00fazk\u00e9 a velmi problematick\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b man\u00e9vru.<\/p>\n

Je pozoruhodn\u00e9, \u017ee v \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch o cvi\u010den\u00edch ze srpna 2022 byl pou\u017eit nov\u00fd term\u00edn pro spole\u010dnou blok\u00e1du, lianhe fengkong (\u8054\u5408\u5c01\u63a7).\u00a0Tradi\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdraz pro blok\u00e1du – fengsuo (\u5c01\u9501) – pou\u017eili pouze tehdy, kdy\u017e citovali z\u00e1padn\u00ed pozorovatele.<\/p>\n

Ofici\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159elo\u017eeno jako \u201eblok\u00e1da a kontrola\u201c, fengkong se d\u0159\u00edve objevil ve spisech PLA o operac\u00edch na obranu hranic, ale ne v kontextu n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1dy.\u00a0Autor p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u011b doch\u00e1z\u00ed k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee fengkong kombinuje koncepty n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1dy se vzdu\u0161n\u00fdm, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edm a informa\u010dn\u00edm \u0159\u00edzen\u00edm, ale to je\u0161t\u011b nebylo prok\u00e1z\u00e1no.
\nvojensk\u00fd ter\u00e9n<\/p>\n

Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm faktorem ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edm potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed blok\u00e1du Tchaj-wanu je geografick\u00e1 poloha samotn\u00e9ho Tchaj-wanu. Je zde jen m\u00e1lo p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f na hlubok\u00e9m mo\u0159i a p\u0159\u00edstavy na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed jsou odd\u011bleny od zbytku sv\u011bta strm\u00fdmi horami a \u00fazk\u00fdmi, n\u00edzkokapacitn\u00edmi silnicemi, kter\u00e9 mohou b\u00fdt snadno od\u0159\u00edznut ostrov izolovan\u00fd.\u00a0Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed poho\u0159\u00ed, kter\u00e9 odd\u011bluje v\u00fdchod od z\u00e1padu, se zved\u00e1 do v\u00fd\u0161e 3,66 km do 30 mil od v\u00fdchodn\u00edho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Yilan (\u5b9c\u862d) je jedin\u00e9 m\u011bsto na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed spojen\u00e9 s Taipei hlavn\u00ed d\u00e1lnic\u00ed a m\u00e1 skromn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstav, ale \u010dty\u0159proud\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed d\u00e1lnice 5 m\u00e1 n\u011bkolik dlouh\u00fdch tunel\u016f (v\u010detn\u011b 13kilometrov\u00e9ho tunelu Hsuehshan) a vyv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 silni\u010dn\u00ed \u00faseky. .<\/p>\n

D\u00e1lnice je in\u017een\u00fdrsk\u00fd z\u00e1zrak, ale ve vojensk\u00e9m konfliktu by se snadno rozsekala.\u00a0Dv\u011b alternativy jsou National Highway 9 p\u0159es hory a National Highway 2 pod\u00e9l pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed.\u00a0Oba maj\u00ed n\u00edzkou kapacitu a jsou na mnoha m\u00edstech zraniteln\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Hualien (\u82b1\u84ee), kter\u00fd se nach\u00e1z\u00ed uprost\u0159ed v\u00fdchodn\u00edho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed, m\u00e1 mal\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstav, ale dv\u011b silnice spojuj\u00edc\u00ed Hualien se z\u00e1padn\u00ed polovinou Tchaj-wanu, i kdy\u017e jsou sc\u00e9nicky velkolep\u00e9, maj\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u011b malou kapacitu a je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 je udr\u017eet v provozu.\u00a0National Highway 8 \u0161plh\u00e1 po sout\u011bsce Taroko a je proslul\u00e1 extr\u00e9mn\u011b \u00fazk\u00fdmi \u00faseky, vl\u00e1senkov\u00fdmi zat\u00e1\u010dkami a strm\u00fdmi sr\u00e1zy.\u00a0Kv\u016fli zem\u011bt\u0159esen\u00edm a sesuv\u016fm p\u016fdy b\u00fdv\u00e1 l\u00e9ta zcela uzav\u0159en\u00e1.\u00a0\u00dasek Hualien-Yilan National Highway 9 m\u00e1 \u00faseky, kter\u00e9 jsou doslova vytes\u00e1ny do skaln\u00ed st\u011bny.<\/p>\n

Keelung (\u57fa\u9686) na kr\u00e1tk\u00e9m severn\u00edm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Tchaj-wanu m\u00e1 dobr\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstav a lep\u0161\u00ed d\u00e1lnice do Taipei, ale tyto silnice prot\u00ednaj\u00ed hust\u011b obydlen\u00e9 oblasti a propl\u00e9taj\u00ed se n\u011bkolika \u00fazk\u00fdmi sout\u011bskami mezi horami.\u00a0Jakmile za\u010dnou bojov\u00e9 operace, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b jakmile PLA z\u00edsk\u00e1 vzdu\u0161nou p\u0159evahu, budou tyto komunika\u010dn\u00ed linky v \u017ealostn\u00e9m stavu.\u00a0Krom\u011b toho je Keelung t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 stejn\u011b zraniteln\u00fd v\u016f\u010di \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm pozemn\u00edm \u00fatok\u016fm jako p\u0159\u00edstavy na z\u00e1padn\u00edm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Jedin\u00fd zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed ploch\u00fd kus zem\u011b na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed, Taitung (\u81fa\u6771), m\u00e1 pouze mal\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstav.\u00a0N\u00e1rodn\u00ed silnice 20, kter\u00e1 prot\u00edn\u00e1 ostrov, nen\u00ed v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e sout\u011bska Taroko ve sv\u00e9 velkolep\u00e9 kr\u00e1se a extr\u00e9mn\u00ed k\u0159ehkosti.\u00a0Ned\u00e1vno se znovu otev\u0159el pot\u00e9, co byl 13 let uzav\u0159en.<\/p>\n

Celkov\u011b jsou p\u0159\u00edstavy na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed pro americkou blok\u00e1du stejn\u011b zbyte\u010dn\u00e9 jako pro \u010d\u00ednskou invazi.\u00a0Jak\u00fdkoli pokus dostat na Tchaj-wan v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e mal\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed n\u00e1kladu proto mus\u00ed b\u00fdt proveden p\u0159es p\u0159\u00edstavy na z\u00e1padn\u00edm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Leteck\u00e1 doprava tak\u00e9 \u010del\u00ed velk\u00fdm geografick\u00fdm probl\u00e9m\u016fm kv\u016fli sv\u00e9 bl\u00edzkosti k pevninsk\u00e9 \u010c\u00edn\u011b.\u00a0Modern\u00ed rakety zem\u011b-vzduch pod\u00e9l \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed mohou zas\u00e1hnout v\u011bt\u0161inu Tchaj-wanu a n\u011bkolik chr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00fdch leti\u0161\u0165 je na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed, kde plat\u00ed stejn\u00e1 omezen\u00ed pozemn\u00ed dopravy jako ve v\u00fdchodn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edstavech.\u00a0Bl\u00edzkost Tchaj-wanu k pevnin\u011b tak\u00e9 ponech\u00e1v\u00e1 dostatek \u010dasu pro nasazen\u00ed bojov\u00fdch letoun\u016f k pos\u00edlen\u00ed vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 blok\u00e1dy, kdy\u017e se p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed americk\u00e1 n\u00e1kladn\u00ed letadla.<\/p>\n

Jak by mohla fungovat blok\u00e1da<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud by se PLA pokusila o invazi na Tchaj-wan, po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed blok\u00e1da by se soust\u0159edila na p\u0159\u00edpravu p\u016fdy pro vylod\u011bn\u00ed \u2013 z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 p\u0159evahy k ochran\u011b vylo\u010fovac\u00ed flotily, izolov\u00e1n\u00ed Tchaj-wanu, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo americk\u00fdm posil\u00e1m a z\u00e1sob\u00e1m, a p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed komunikace s Tchaj-wanem pro ob\u011b operace. a psychologick\u00e9 d\u016fvody.<\/p>\n

B\u011bhem t\u00e9to f\u00e1ze by se PLA sna\u017eila dob\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edstavy a leti\u0161t\u011b pro pou\u017eit\u00ed silami PLA, tak\u017ee \u00fatoky by byly omezeny na to, co je nezbytn\u00e9 k dobyt\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pod kontrolou CHKO a pot\u00e9 k op\u011btovn\u00e9mu otev\u0159en\u00ed.\u00a0PLA by tak\u00e9 musela odstranit p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky vytvo\u0159en\u00e9 tchajwansk\u00fdmi nebo americk\u00fdmi silami, v\u010detn\u011b mo\u017en\u00fdch min a z\u00e1m\u011brn\u00e9ho po\u0161kozen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstavn\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed obrann\u00fdmi silami.<\/p>\n

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V srpnu 2022 zah\u00e1jila \u010c\u00edna v reakci na p\u0159edsedkyni Sn\u011bmovny reprezentant\u016f USA Nancy Pelosiovou bezprecedentn\u00ed testy raket kolem Tchaj-wanu.\u00a0Obr\u00e1zek: Twitter<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Pokud by se v\u0161ak invaze nezda\u0159ila nebo by se Peking rozhodl pro blok\u00e1du bez pokusu o invazi, kalkulace CHKO by byla jin\u00e1.\u00a0Proto\u017ee neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 pob\u00eddka k tomu, aby byly p\u0159\u00edstavy a leti\u0161t\u011b otev\u0159eny, s\u00edly PLA by zaminovaly p\u0159\u00edstupy a samotn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstavy, po\u0161kodily p\u0159\u00edstavn\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a trasy pro dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159epravu materi\u00e1lu a potopily nebo potopily lod\u011b v p\u0159epravn\u00edch kan\u00e1lech.<\/p>\n

Bitva o vzdu\u0161nou p\u0159evahu by za\u010dala rozdrcen\u00edm tchajwansk\u00e9 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany raketov\u00fdmi silami PLA a n\u00e1sledn\u011b letectvem operuj\u00edc\u00edm pod krytem raket zem\u011b-vzduch dlouh\u00e9ho doletu pod\u00e9l \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed.\u00a0PLA nemohla zabr\u00e1nit \u00fatok\u016fm vysp\u011bl\u00fdch americk\u00fdch stealth letadel, ale mohla za\u00fato\u010dit na ka\u017ed\u00e9 n\u00e1kladn\u00ed letadlo, kter\u00e9 se pokou\u0161elo p\u0159ist\u00e1t na Tchaj-wanu, a vystavit v\u0161echny mo\u017en\u00e9 dr\u00e1hy opakovan\u00e9mu bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Pokud se americk\u00fdm sil\u00e1m nepoda\u0159\u00ed porazit integrovan\u00fd syst\u00e9m protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany CHKO, odhaduje tento autor, \u017ee by CHKO mohla udr\u017eet vzdu\u0161nou blok\u00e1du m\u011bs\u00edce, ne-li roky, ani\u017e by vy\u010derpala sv\u00e9 z\u00e1soby leteck\u00fdch a pozemn\u00edch zbran\u00ed.<\/p>\n

N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed popis operace \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 invaze je \u010derp\u00e1n z n\u011bkolika anal\u00fdz z\u00e1padn\u00edch pozorovatel\u016f.\u00a0(P\u0159\u00edklady: Ian Easton, The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia (Arlington, VA: Project 2049 Institute, 2017), str. 77\u2013124; Lonnie Henley, \u201eProvozn\u00ed koncepty PLA a centra gravitace na Tchaj-wanu Konflikt,\u201c sv\u011bdectv\u00ed p\u0159ed americko-\u010d\u00ednskou ekonomickou a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed revizn\u00ed komis\u00ed, 18. \u00fanora 2021; Michael Casey, \u201eFirepower Strike, Blockade, Landing: PLA Campaigns for a Cross-Strait Conflict\u201c, v Joel Wuthnow, Derek Grossman, Phillip C Saunders, Andrew Scobell, Andrew ND Yang, eds., P\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed \u00fa\u017einy: \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da se p\u0159ipravuje na v\u00e1lku s Tchaj-wanem (Washington, DC, National Defense University Press, 2022), s. 113-138).<\/p>\n

PLA se bude sna\u017eit od\u0159\u00edznout v\u0161echny komunika\u010dn\u00ed linky z ostrova a p\u0159eru\u0161it komunikaci na Tchaj-wanu.\u00a0V\u010dasn\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 a leteck\u00e9 \u00fatoky by zahrnovaly komunika\u010dn\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed dlouh\u00e9ho dosahu, jako jsou satelitn\u00ed pozemn\u00ed stanice a m\u00edsta pro p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed podmo\u0159sk\u00fdch kabel\u016f.\u00a0Protiopat\u0159en\u00ed ve vesm\u00edru by zahrnovala ru\u0161en\u00ed nebo destruktivn\u00ed \u00fatoky na komunika\u010dn\u00ed satelity.<\/p>\n

Vzdu\u0161n\u00e1 p\u0159evaha by umo\u017enila PLA pou\u017e\u00edvat pr\u016fzkumn\u00e1 letadla a drony ke sledov\u00e1n\u00ed a \u00fatoku na ten\u010d\u00edc\u00ed se po\u010det mobiln\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f.<\/p>\n

Co by bylo pot\u0159eba k prolomen\u00ed blok\u00e1dy?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1da by mohla zahrnovat konven\u010dn\u00ed snahy zachytit, nalodit nebo zni\u010dit n\u00e1kladn\u00ed lod\u011b na mo\u0159i.\u00a0\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed v srpnu 2022 se zam\u011b\u0159ila na takov\u00e9 operace a dokumenty PLA se zab\u00fdvaj\u00ed technick\u00fdmi detaily, jako je po\u010det lod\u00ed po\u017eadovan\u00fd pro danou mo\u0159skou oblast.\u00a0Jakmile v\u0161ak operace vylod\u011bn\u00ed sel\u017ee, je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by PLA m\u011bla k dispozici mnoho v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch lod\u00ed pro tento \u00fakol.<\/p>\n

A pokud by blok\u00e1da byla hlavn\u00edm \u00fasil\u00edm CHKO a nep\u0159edch\u00e1zel j\u00ed pokus o invazi, pak by v prvn\u00ed bitv\u011b americk\u00e9 s\u00edly pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b rozdrtily flotilu CHKO v\u00fdchodn\u011b od Tchaj-wanu.\u00a0Bohu\u017eel by to neskon\u010dilo v\u00e1lka a podm\u00ednky pro zbytek konfliktu by velmi naklonily \u010c\u00edn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Pot\u00e9, co americk\u00e9 s\u00edly vyhraj\u00ed prvn\u00ed bitvu \u2013 a\u0165 u\u017e rozdrcen\u00edm invaze nebo potopen\u00edm \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 flotily \u2013 budou st\u00e1le muset dopravovat stovky tun n\u00e1kladu na Tchaj-wan, den za dnem, m\u011bs\u00edc za m\u011bs\u00edcem.<\/p>\n

Kolik z toho je nezodpov\u011bzen\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka;\u00a0zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee nedo\u0161lo k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e9mu posouzen\u00ed tchajwansk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 spot\u0159eby, dom\u00e1c\u00ed v\u00fdroby, strategick\u00fdch rezerv nebo o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdch ob\u011bt\u00ed z \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch p\u0159est\u0159elek.\u00a0Materi\u00e1ln\u00ed po\u017eadavky jsou v\u0161ak jist\u011b vysok\u00e9, nemluv\u011b o psychologick\u00e9m v\u00fdznamu pravideln\u00e9ho prolomen\u00ed blok\u00e1dy pro pos\u00edlen\u00ed v\u016fle Tchaj-wanu bojovat.<\/p>\n

To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee americk\u00e9 s\u00edly mus\u00ed pravideln\u011b p\u0159iv\u00e1\u017eet n\u00e1kladn\u00ed lod\u011b do p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f na z\u00e1padn\u00edm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed pod v\u00fdznamnou minovou a nep\u0159\u00e1telskou palbou, v t\u011bsn\u00e9 bl\u00edzkosti \u010c\u00edny a za podm\u00ednek \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 p\u0159evahy.\u00a0Po t\u00fddnech nebo m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch konfliktu by PLA mo\u017en\u00e1 vy\u010derpala sv\u00e9 z\u00e1soby zbran\u00ed dlouh\u00e9ho doletu, ale jej\u00ed mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1soby zbran\u00ed kr\u00e1tk\u00e9ho doletu by z\u016fstaly z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti nevyu\u017eity.<\/p>\n

Velkou hrozbu by p\u0159edstavovalo d\u011blost\u0159electvo dlouh\u00e9ho doletu, pozemn\u00ed protilodn\u00ed st\u0159ely, hl\u00eddkov\u00e9 \u010dluny s raketami nebo torp\u00e9dy a je\u0161t\u011b star\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 letadla t\u0159et\u00ed generace, kter\u00e1 shazuj\u00ed gravita\u010dn\u00ed bomby.\u00a0\u010c\u00edna by mohla znovu osadit minov\u00e1 pole mezi \u00fatoky USA pomoc\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00fdch platforem.\u00a0Jak\u00e1koli n\u00e1kladn\u00ed lo\u010f, kter\u00e1 by mohla zastavit PLA, by se stala sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed pole p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eek, kter\u00e9 mus\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed lo\u010f p\u0159ekonat.<\/p>\n

Dod\u00e1vka vzduchu by mohla b\u00fdt symbolicky d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1, pokud by byla provediteln\u00e1, ale to se zd\u00e1 krajn\u011b nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9.\u00a0A\u0165 je americk\u00e1 stealth a elektronick\u00e1 v\u00e1lka schopna \u010dehokoli, neexistuje zp\u016fsob, jak skr\u00fdt velk\u00e9 n\u00e1kladn\u00ed letadlo nebo z n\u011bj ud\u011blat n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho ne\u017e tlust\u00fd, pomal\u00fd a extr\u00e9mn\u011b zraniteln\u00fd c\u00edl.<\/p>\n

I v nesporn\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed by leteck\u00e1 doprava byla \u017ealostn\u011b nedostate\u010dn\u00e1 pro mno\u017estv\u00ed paliva a dal\u0161\u00edch nezbytn\u00fdch z\u00e1sob, kter\u00e9 Tchaj-wan pot\u0159ebuje k p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed.\u00a0Vzhledem k \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9mu syst\u00e9mu protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany a letectvu PLA operuj\u00edc\u00edm nad Tchaj-wanem je dod\u00e1vka vzduchu v po\u017eadovan\u00e9m mno\u017estv\u00ed prost\u011b nemo\u017en\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Protiblok\u00e1da a uvalen\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto bod\u011b diskuse ameri\u010dt\u00ed partne\u0159i \u010dasto navrhuj\u00ed, \u017ee by Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mohly od\u0159\u00edznout p\u0159\u00edstup \u010c\u00edny na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed trhy, zejm\u00e9na na dov\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 palivo.\u00a0S konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed blok\u00e1dou USA nebo bez n\u00ed nen\u00ed pochyb o tom, \u017ee v\u00e1lka by v\u00e1\u017en\u011b naru\u0161ila \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd zahrani\u010dn\u00ed obchod a zp\u016fsobila zk\u00e1zu v \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 (a v\u0161ech ostatn\u00edch) ekonomice.<\/p>\n

Tento autor ji\u017e dlouho tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee ekonomick\u00e9, politick\u00e9 a diplomatick\u00e9 n\u00e1klady v\u00e1lky pat\u0159\u00ed k nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm faktor\u016fm odrazuj\u00edc\u00edm Peking od \u00fatoku na Tchaj-wan, krom\u011b vojensk\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hy, kter\u00e1 je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e vojensk\u00e1 rovnov\u00e1ha.\u00a0Pokud by bylo obsazen\u00ed Tchaj-wanu snadn\u00e9 a levn\u00e9, \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 by to ud\u011blali u\u017e d\u00e1vno.<\/p>\n

Pokud se \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed p\u0159esto rozhodne za\u00fato\u010dit, je to jen proto, \u017ee v\u011bdom\u011b p\u0159ijalo obrovsk\u00e9 n\u00e1klady.\u00a0Ot\u00e1zkou pak je, jak dlouho m\u016f\u017ee druh\u00e1 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomika sv\u011bta odol\u00e1vat konfliktu tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 blok\u00e1d\u011b USA.\u00a0Na to je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 odpov\u011bd\u011bt, ale zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee ta snadn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st je: mnohem d\u00e9le, ne\u017e to dok\u00e1\u017ee Tchaj-wan.\u00a0Nejsme na v\u00edt\u011bzn\u00e9 stran\u011b t\u011bchto v\u00fddaj\u016f.<\/p>\n

D\u016fsledky pro pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed ozbrojen\u00fdch sil, opera\u010dn\u00ed koncepce a v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpravy<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Podle pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto autora se americk\u00e9 \u00favahy o mo\u017en\u00e9m tchajwansk\u00e9m konfliktu soust\u0159ed\u00ed na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v prvn\u00ed bitv\u011b, tj. bu\u010f na zma\u0159en\u00ed pokusu o vylod\u011bn\u00ed, nebo prora\u017een\u00ed blok\u00e1dy n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva CHKO v\u00fdchodn\u011b od Tchaj-wanu.\u00a0(Toto byla pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b my\u0161lenka, kter\u00e1 vyvolala \u201ehlasit\u00e9 ano\u201c od velitele tichomo\u0159sk\u00e9 flotily USA, admir\u00e1la Papara, kdy\u017e se ho zeptali, zda by jeho s\u00edly mohly prolomit \u010d\u00ednskou blok\u00e1du.) O tom, co se stane pot\u00e9, jak dob\u00fdt Tchaj-wan Udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed na\u017eivu m\u011bs\u00edce, ne-li roky, o t\u011bsnou \u010d\u00ednskou blok\u00e1du bylo mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b znepokojeno.<\/p>\n

Po\u017eadavky na blok\u00e1du se v\u00fdrazn\u011b li\u0161\u00ed od po\u017eadavk\u016f na potla\u010den\u00ed p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Ta m\u00e1 dva hlavn\u00ed aspekty: ochranu americk\u00fdch lod\u00ed a letadel p\u0159ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi dlouh\u00e9ho doletu a potopen\u00ed co nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho po\u010dtu lod\u00ed, kter\u00e9 p\u0159enesou \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 s\u00edly p\u0159es \u00fa\u017einu.\u00a0Oba \u00fakoly jsou extr\u00e9mn\u011b obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9, ale po\u017eadavky jsou jednoduch\u00e9 a hraj\u00ed na s\u00edlu americk\u00e9ho vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho komplexu.<\/p>\n

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Tchajwansk\u00fd st\u00edhac\u00ed letoun AIDC F-CK-1 Ching-Kuo s vystavenou v\u00fdzbroj\u00ed.\u00a0Foto: Twitter<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Proveden\u00ed blok\u00e1dy na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b p\u0159edstavuje extr\u00e9mn\u00ed opera\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdzvy, pro kter\u00e9 neexistuje z\u0159ejm\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, a tak\u00e9 je v rozporu s hluboce zako\u0159en\u011bn\u00fdm p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00edm o tom, na jak\u00fd typ operac\u00ed by se m\u011bly americk\u00e9 s\u00edly p\u0159ipravit.<\/p>\n

Aby byla \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1, mus\u00ed eskorta americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva operovat v omezen\u00e9 a zu\u0159iv\u011b bojov\u00e9 oblasti z\u00e1padn\u011b od Tchaj-wanu a z\u00e1rove\u0148 chr\u00e1nit n\u00e1kladn\u00ed lod\u011b i je samotn\u00e9 p\u0159ed mno\u017estv\u00edm sou\u010dasn\u00fdch hrozeb.\u00a0Pod palbou a z\u00e1dy k \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9mu pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed mus\u00edte prov\u00e9st rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 operace odminov\u00e1n\u00ed a odstra\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eek, dostat n\u00e1kladn\u00ed lo\u010f do p\u0159\u00edstavu a vylo\u017eit ji a pot\u00e9 ji bezpe\u010dn\u011b dostat ven, abyste se nestali dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekou.\u00a0Mus\u00edte to d\u011blat nejen jednou, ale opakovan\u011b, mnohokr\u00e1t t\u00fddn\u011b, dokud konflikt trv\u00e1.\u00a0To vy\u017eaduje jinou strukturu sil a jin\u00e9 opera\u010dn\u00ed koncepce.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd integrovan\u00fd syst\u00e9m protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm faktorem pro \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly v t\u00e9to bitv\u011b.\u00a0Vypnut\u00ed tohoto syst\u00e9mu by probl\u00e9m nevy\u0159e\u0161ilo, ale v\u00fdrazn\u011b by sn\u00ed\u017eilo z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e americk\u00fdch sil operuj\u00edc\u00edch v pr\u016flivu.<\/p>\n

S vypnutou protiletadlovou obranou by americk\u00e9 letectvo mohlo chr\u00e1nit v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 a n\u00e1kladn\u00ed lod\u011b p\u0159ed \u00fatokem a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 letectvo by bylo odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem men\u0161\u00edm faktorem.\u00a0Odstran\u011bn\u00ed integrovan\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany by tak\u00e9 vedlo k vyv\u00e1\u017een\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu vzdu\u0161n\u00e9mu boji nad Tchaj-wanem, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by bylo z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed vzduchem obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e nemo\u017en\u00e9, a\u010dkoli kapacita by byla st\u00e1le omezen\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Proveden\u00ed blok\u00e1dy vy\u017eaduje, aby n\u00e1kladn\u00ed lod\u011b pronikly hluboko do nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00f3ny, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdzvu pro pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed a rozvoj sil.\u00a0Z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed lod\u00ed by bylo relativn\u011b snadn\u00e9, pokud by vl\u00e1da USA byla ochotna kompenzovat majitel\u016fm lod\u00ed jak\u00e9koli finan\u010dn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty, v\u010detn\u011b ztr\u00e1ty samotn\u00e9 lodi.\u00a0To by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 za\u0159\u00eddit v kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 dob\u011b, pokud by byly k dispozici finan\u010dn\u00ed prost\u0159edky.<\/p>\n

Obsazov\u00e1n\u00ed lod\u00ed by v\u0161ak bylo problemati\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a vy\u017eadovalo by o\u017eiven\u00ed americk\u00e9ho obchodn\u00edho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva jako bojov\u00e9 s\u00edly pro provozov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1kladn\u00ed flotily v bojov\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch.\u00a0Lod\u011b vlastn\u011bn\u00e9 Tchaj-wanem a mo\u017en\u00e1 i jejich pos\u00e1dky by mohly b\u00fdt k dispozici bez n\u00e1hrady, ale tyto podrobnosti by bylo nutn\u00e9 vyjednat.<\/p>\n

To v\u0161e p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee Tchaj-wan je schopen sn\u00e9st bolest, kterou mu \u010c\u00edna zp\u016fsob\u00ed.\u00a0Ur\u010dit\u00e1 odolnost z\u00e1vis\u00ed na americk\u00fdch dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch kritick\u00fdch zbran\u00ed a munice, ale v\u011bt\u0161ina z nich spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v rukou tchajwansk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy a lidu.\u00a0Tchaj-wan by mohl zv\u00fd\u0161it svou odolnost pos\u00edlen\u00edm sv\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, p\u0159echodem na mobiln\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e pevn\u00fdmi syst\u00e9my, z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00edm kritickou munic\u00ed a materi\u00e1lem, hodnocen\u00edm sv\u00fdch pot\u0159eb v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00e1lky za p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edd\u011blov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00edm pravideln\u00fdch cvi\u010den\u00ed k udr\u017een\u00ed operac\u00ed a diskuse se otev\u0159ela. s vlastn\u00edmi lidmi o tom, jak spole\u010dnost m\u016f\u017ee odolat dlouhodob\u00e9mu str\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm trest\u016fm.<\/p>\n

To v\u0161e ponech\u00e1v\u00e1 USA n\u011bkolik mo\u017enost\u00ed:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Za prv\u00e9, pokra\u010dovat v na\u0161em sou\u010dasn\u00e9m kurzu a vybudovat americk\u00e9 s\u00edly schopn\u00e9 odrazit \u010d\u00ednskou invazi, ale neschopn\u00e9 prorazit blok\u00e1du tchajwansk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f a \u200b\u200bleti\u0161\u0165.<\/p>\n

Za druh\u00e9, vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00edly schopn\u00e9 odrazit blok\u00e1du i invazi.<\/p>\n

Za t\u0159et\u00ed, p\u0159iznejte si, \u017ee nem\u016f\u017eeme zachr\u00e1nit Tchaj-wan p\u0159ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm dobyt\u00edm a vzd\u00e1t se pokus\u016f.<\/p>\n

Mo\u017enost t\u0159i m\u00e1 tu v\u00fdhodu, \u017ee je \u010destn\u00e1 a u\u0161et\u0159\u00ed velkou \u010d\u00e1st zdroj\u016f, kter\u00e9 investujeme do \u00fasil\u00ed o boj proti invazi.\u00a0To je ale podle tohoto autora politicky nep\u0159ijateln\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Mo\u017enost jedna m\u00e1 tu v\u00fdhodu, \u017ee nevy\u017eaduje v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u00fasil\u00ed, ne\u017e v sou\u010dasnosti vynakl\u00e1d\u00e1me.\u00a0Jejich hlavn\u00ed nev\u00fdhodou je, \u017ee tuto v\u00e1lku nem\u016f\u017eeme vyhr\u00e1t se silami, kter\u00e9 pr\u00e1v\u011b budujeme.\u00a0Tchaj-wan bude zni\u010den, krveprolit\u00ed na v\u0161ech stran\u00e1ch a obrovsk\u00e9 \u0161kody pro USA a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku, to v\u0161e v ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9m pokusu zabr\u00e1nit por\u00e1\u017ece a okupaci americk\u00e9ho spojence.\u00a0Pokud setrv\u00e1me v tomto kurzu, mus\u00edme doufat, \u017ee se \u010c\u00edna po ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 invazi vzd\u00e1, nebo je\u0161t\u011b l\u00e9pe, \u017ee n\u00e1s nebude v\u016fbec testovat.<\/p>\n

Zb\u00fdv\u00e1 tedy pouze mo\u017enost dv\u011b, budov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00edly, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee skute\u010dn\u011b vyhr\u00e1t.\u00a0Kdykoli v\u0161ak tento autor p\u0159edlo\u017eil tento hlavolam americk\u00fdm pl\u00e1nova\u010d\u016fm sil, nevyhnutelnou odpov\u011bd\u00ed bylo, \u017ee s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 bychom pot\u0159ebovali k prolomen\u00ed blok\u00e1dy, nejsou silami, kter\u00e9 pot\u0159ebujeme pro v\u0161echno ostatn\u00ed, co je na sv\u011bt\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zkou tedy je, co vlastn\u011b mysl\u00edme, kdy\u017e \u0159\u00edk\u00e1me, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna je hrozbou pro rozvoj americk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy.\u00a0Znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me \u010c\u00ednu k ospravedln\u011bn\u00ed na\u0161ich preferovan\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f a silov\u00fdch struktur?\u00a0Nebo to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ve skute\u010dnosti budujeme s\u00edlu, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee zv\u00edt\u011bzit?<\/p>\n

Ve v\u00e1lce o Tchaj-wan jsou jen dv\u011b mo\u017enosti: bu\u010f \u010c\u00edna rychle vyhraje, proto\u017ee se Tchaj-wan vzdal, nebo proto\u017ee ho Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nedok\u00e1zaly zachr\u00e1nit \u2013 nebo se v\u00e1lka vle\u010de m\u011bs\u00edce \u010di roky, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e Tchaj-wan trp\u00ed st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed bolest\u00ed, dokud ho nezachr\u00e1n\u00edme nebo se to vzd\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Vyhr\u00e1t prvn\u00ed bitvu nem\u00e1 smysl, pokud nem\u016f\u017eeme vyhr\u00e1t v\u00e1lku, a neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 cesta k v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed USA, kter\u00e1 nezahrnuje dlouhou blok\u00e1du.\u00a0Tyto snahy zahrnuj\u00ed protilodn\u00ed zbran\u011b dlouh\u00e9ho doletu, opat\u0159en\u00ed proti \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm raketov\u00fdm hrozb\u00e1m americk\u00fdm lod\u00edm a leti\u0161t\u00edm a pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed americk\u00fdch bojov\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed pod vodou.<\/p>\n

Variantou rychl\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed by bylo, kdyby Peking na\u0161el vzorec, kter\u00fd by mu umo\u017enil tvrdit politick\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed i p\u0159es ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed, a my mu dovol\u00edme takov\u00fd n\u00e1rok zachovat.<\/p>\n

Lonnie Henley<\/strong> – je vedouc\u00edm pracovn\u00edkem ve Foreign Policy Research Institute. Po v\u00edce ne\u017e 40 letech jako zpravodajsk\u00fd d\u016fstojn\u00edk a expert na v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii ode\u0161el v roce 2019 z feder\u00e1ln\u00ed slu\u017eby USA.<\/p>\n

Tento \u010dl\u00e1nek byl p\u016fvodn\u011b publikov\u00e1n jako studie China Maritime Studies Institute.\u00a0Je zde publikov\u00e1n pod licenc\u00ed s otev\u0159en\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edstupem, digital commons, s hlavn\u00edm textem lehce upraven\u00fdm, ale nezkr\u00e1cen\u00fdm.\u00a0N\u011bkter\u00e9 pozn\u00e1mky pod \u010darou byly smaz\u00e1ny.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

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USA mohou odrazit pokus o invazi, ale prohraj\u00ed, pokud \u010c\u00edna uval\u00ed na ostrov blok\u00e1du Pokud…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":24377,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[30,333,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24376"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24376"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24376\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24377"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24376"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24376"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24376"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}