{"id":23819,"date":"2023-03-03T01:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-03T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=23819"},"modified":"2023-03-02T13:04:15","modified_gmt":"2023-03-02T12:04:15","slug":"james-bohn-co-kdyz-zapad-nedokaze-obnovit-ukrajinu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/03\/03\/james-bohn-co-kdyz-zapad-nedokaze-obnovit-ukrajinu\/","title":{"rendered":"James Bohn: Co kdy\u017e Z\u00e1pad nedok\u00e1\u017ee obnovit Ukrajinu?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Dvacetilet\u00e9 americk\u00e9 anga\u017em\u00e1 v Ir\u00e1ku a Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee budov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1roda je \u010dasto dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed, n\u00e1chyln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed k ne\u00fasp\u011bchu a m\u00e9n\u011b politicky popul\u00e1rn\u00ed, ne\u017e se p\u016fvodn\u011b p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dalo.\u00a0Zpr\u00e1va americk\u00e9ho ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed Afghan Stabilisation Assistance Review uznala pot\u00ed\u017ee s budov\u00e1n\u00edm n\u00e1roda a poznamenala, \u017ee americk\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost nem\u00e1 v budoucnu chu\u0165 na podobn\u00e9 podniky.\u00a0Dnes, necel\u00e9 dva roky po odchodu z Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu, v\u0161ak Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a jejich evrop\u0161t\u00ed spojenci \u010del\u00ed projektu budov\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1tu, kter\u00fd je dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed a p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm stejn\u011b velk\u00fd jako projekty posledn\u00edch dvou desetilet\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed dlouh\u00e9 v\u00e1lky NATO hroz\u00ed, \u017ee zatla\u010d\u00ed Ukrajinu za bod zlomu, ze kter\u00e9ho se ukrajinsk\u00e1 ekonomika u\u017e nikdy nevzpamatuje.\u00a0O\u017eivit ukrajinskou ekonomiku by bylo obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9, i kdyby v\u00e1lka skon\u010dila v roce 2022.\u00a0Pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed boj\u016f a zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed ni\u010div\u011bj\u0161\u00edch a smrteln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1padn\u00edch zbran\u00ed hroz\u00ed, \u017ee se Ukrajina stane trval\u00fdm ekonomick\u00fdm vazalsk\u00fdm st\u00e1tem Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a EU.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dokonce i agresivn\u00ed korporace Rand p\u0159i zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f a p\u0159\u00ednos\u016f dlouh\u00e9 v\u00e1lky uznala kompromis mezi pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm bojem a dodate\u010dn\u00fdmi n\u00e1klady a obt\u00ed\u017eemi o\u017eiven\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 ekonomiky v pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9m obdob\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

St\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed odhady n\u00e1klad\u016f na rekonstrukci jsou obrovsk\u00e9.\u00a0Pl\u00e1n n\u00e1rodn\u00ed obnovy p\u0159edlo\u017een\u00fd N\u00e1rodn\u00ed radou pro obnovu Ukrajiny v \u010dervenci 2022 vy\u010d\u00edslil n\u00e1klady na 750 miliard dolar\u016f.\u00a0V lednu 2023 ukrajinsk\u00fd prezident Zelenskyj vy\u010d\u00edslil n\u00e1klady na obnovu Ukrajiny na 1 bilion dolar\u016f.\u00a0Tyto odhady jsou mnohon\u00e1sobn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 150 miliard dolar\u016f, kter\u00e9 Z\u00e1pad dosud vy\u010dlenil na v\u0161echny formy pomoci.\u00a0Jsou tak\u00e9 p\u011btkr\u00e1t nebo v\u00edce v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e Marshall\u016fv pl\u00e1n po druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, co\u017e je 150\u2013160 miliard dolar\u016f v dne\u0161n\u00edch dolarech, a 145 miliard dolar\u016f, kter\u00e9 americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da vydala na obnovu Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dosavadn\u00ed odhady v\u00fdrazn\u011b podhodnocuj\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na rekonstrukci.\u00a0Podce\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f a zveli\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00ednos\u016f usnad\u0148uje d\u00e1rcovsk\u00fdm zem\u00edm, ve\u0159ejnosti a nevl\u00e1dn\u00edm organizac\u00edm zapojen\u00ed do program\u016f obnovy.\u00a0Udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00edzk\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f tak\u00e9 usnad\u0148uje samo\u00fa\u010deln\u00fdm byrokrat\u016fm z\u00edskat souhlas jejich \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f.\u00a0Zpr\u00e1va zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edho gener\u00e1ln\u00edho inspektora pro obnovu Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu zjistila, \u017ee americk\u00e9 asisten\u010dn\u00ed programy b\u011b\u017en\u011b podce\u0148uj\u00ed \u010das a zdroje pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 pro projekty a up\u0159ednost\u0148uj\u00ed politick\u00e9 preference p\u0159ed realisticky dosa\u017eiteln\u00fdmi c\u00edli.<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b n\u00e1klad\u016f se mus\u00ed rekonstruk\u010dn\u00ed \u00fasil\u00ed vyrovnat tak\u00e9 s klesaj\u00edc\u00ed demografi\u00ed Ukrajiny, jej\u00ed st\u00e1rnouc\u00ed pr\u016fmyslovou z\u00e1kladnou a omezenou schopnost\u00ed EU prov\u00e1d\u011bt nebo monitorovat struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed reformy.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Ukrajin\u011b chyb\u00ed nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed prvek pro jej\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed: mlad\u00ed lid\u00e9.\u00a0P\u0159estavba je hodn\u011b pr\u00e1ce a kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 je mlad\u00e1 populace ochotn\u00e1 investovat do budoucnosti zem\u011b.\u00a0Jedn\u00edm z d\u016fvod\u016f rychl\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho o\u017eiven\u00ed N\u011bmecka a Japonska po druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce je, \u017ee ob\u011b zem\u011b m\u011bly mlad\u00e9 obyvatelstvo.\u00a0V roce 1950 bylo 46 procent n\u011bmeck\u00e9 populace mlad\u0161\u00ed 30 let (oproti dne\u0161n\u00edm 39 procent\u016fm ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech).\u00a0Rostouc\u00ed pracovn\u00ed s\u00edla umo\u017enila expanzi pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00fdroby a exportu a z\u00e1rove\u0148 byla p\u0159ebudov\u00e1na infrastruktura.\u00a0Devizov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy z exportu umo\u017enily Z\u00e1padn\u00edmu N\u011bmecku samofinancovat sv\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed o obnovu bez dal\u0161\u00ed pomoci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce bylo Japonsko je\u0161t\u011b mlad\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e N\u011bmecko.\u00a0Navzdory obrovsk\u00fdm ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky vzrostla japonsk\u00e1 populace mezi lety 1940 a 1950 o 10 milion\u016f.\u00a0V roce 1950 bylo 63 procent japonsk\u00e9 populace mlad\u0161\u00ed 30 let.<\/span><\/p>\n

Naproti tomu p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 Ukrajina se rychle st\u00e1vala n\u00e1rodem d\u016fchodc\u016f.\u00a0Populace Ukrajiny v produktivn\u00edm v\u011bku dos\u00e1hla vrcholu v roce 1992 a do roku 2021 klesla o 5 milion\u016f.\u00a0Ukrajinsk\u00e1 porodnost po rozpadu Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu prudce klesla a klesla z 13 promile v roce 1990 na 8 v roce 2000. P\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou bylo pouze 31 procent ukrajinsk\u00e9 populace ve v\u011bku 30 nebo m\u00e9n\u011b let.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka urychlila demografick\u00fd pokles Ukrajiny.\u00a0Ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed uprchl\u00edci b\u00fdvaj\u00ed mlad\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e b\u011b\u017en\u00e1 populace.\u00a0Pr\u016fzkum mezi ukrajinsk\u00fdmi uprchl\u00edky, kter\u00fd provedla n\u011bmeck\u00e1 vl\u00e1da, zjistil, \u017ee jen t\u0159etina m\u00e1 v \u00famyslu vr\u00e1tit se na Ukrajinu bezprost\u0159edn\u011b po skon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky.\u00a0Jakmile Ukrajina zru\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1kaz cestov\u00e1n\u00ed pro mu\u017ee ve v\u011bku od 18 do 60 let, mnoz\u00ed opust\u00ed zemi, aby se p\u0159ipojili k rodin\u011b a p\u0159\u00e1tel\u016fm, na\u0161li si pr\u00e1ci nebo se vyhnuli riziku, \u017ee budou povol\u00e1ni do vojensk\u00e9 slu\u017eby, pokud se v\u00e1lka obnov\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e1 p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 ekonomika uv\u00edzla v sov\u011btsk\u00e9 \u00e9\u0159e.\u00a0Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdvozem zem\u011b byly komodity: zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 produkty, kovy a nerosty.\u00a0Existuje velk\u00fd rozpor mezi strukturou st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 ekonomiky a strukturou p\u0159edpokl\u00e1danou v pl\u00e1nech obnovy.\u00a0N\u00e1rodn\u00ed pl\u00e1n obnovy po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 se zelenou ekonomikou v souladu se Zelenou dohodou EU a roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm odv\u011btv\u00ed informa\u010dn\u00edch technologi\u00ed.\u00a0Tyto body mohou b\u00fdt zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 pro u\u0161i potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch d\u00e1rcovsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed a nevl\u00e1dn\u00edch organizac\u00ed.\u00a0Takov\u00e1 transformace by v\u0161ak vy\u017eadovala nejen vytvo\u0159en\u00ed nov\u00fdch pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 zru\u0161en\u00ed velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny Ukrajiny.\u00a0Ekonomika Ukrajiny je velmi energeticky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e1.\u00a0Podle Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 agentury spot\u0159ebovala Ukrajina p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou v\u00edce energie na dolar HDP (v parit\u011b kupn\u00ed s\u00edly) ne\u017e kter\u00e1koli jin\u00e1 evropsk\u00e1 zem\u011b.\u00a0Pl\u00e1ny na rozvoj znalostn\u00edho pr\u016fmyslu nar\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed na ukrajinskou demografii.\u00a0Znalostn\u00ed pracovn\u00edci b\u00fdvaj\u00ed mlad\u00ed a p\u0159izp\u016fsobiv\u00ed.\u00a0Ukrajinsk\u00e1 pracovn\u00ed s\u00edla st\u00e1rne a zmen\u0161uje se.<\/span><\/p>\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b, pl\u00e1ny mus\u00ed br\u00e1t v \u00favahu obt\u00ed\u017ee spojen\u00e9 s budov\u00e1n\u00edm n\u00e1roda.\u00a0M\u00edrn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, dosavadn\u00ed \u00fasil\u00ed zdaleka zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 za o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm.\u00a0\u00dasil\u00ed o obnovu Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu za\u010dalo s velk\u00fdmi nad\u011bjemi.\u00a0Nakonec i George W. Bush ve sv\u00fdch memo\u00e1rech Decision Points p\u0159ipustil, \u017ee budov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1roda \u201ese uk\u00e1zalo je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce skli\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed, ne\u017e jsem o\u010dek\u00e1val\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Neschopnost EU o\u017eivit \u0159eckou ekonomiku po dluhov\u00e9 krizi zem\u011b by m\u011bla d\u00e1t z\u00e1padn\u00edm l\u00eddr\u016fm pauzu.\u00a0O\u017eiven\u00ed \u0158ecka m\u011blo b\u00fdt ka\u017edop\u00e1dn\u011b mnohem snaz\u0161\u00ed \u00fakol, ne\u017e kter\u00e9mu \u010delily EU a USA na Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0Na rozd\u00edl od Ukrajiny je \u0158ecko pro EU zn\u00e1m\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed.\u00a0\u0158ecko je \u010dlenem EU od roku 1981.\u00a0V\u00fd\u0161e pomoci \u0158ecku byla dosti omezen\u00e1.\u00a0\u0158ecko pot\u0159ebovalo pouze finan\u010dn\u00ed podporu a institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed reformy, ale \u017e\u00e1dnou novou infrastrukturu.\u00a0V dob\u011b dluhov\u00e9 krize byla \u0159eck\u00e1 infrastruktura nejen nedot\u010den\u00e1, ale tak\u00e9 z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti nov\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159es n\u011bkolik kol finan\u010dn\u00ed podpory od roku 2010 a dvan\u00e1ct let dohledu EU je \u0159eck\u00e1 ekonomika st\u00e1le nedostate\u010dn\u011b rozvinut\u00e1.\u00a0Produktivita pr\u00e1ce v posledn\u00edm desetilet\u00ed stagnovala.\u00a0Pom\u011br ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho dluhu \u0158ecka k HDP se od krize zv\u00fd\u0161il o 50 procentn\u00edch bod\u016f.\u00a0Nezam\u011bstnanost mlad\u00fdch se pohybuje kolem 30 procent.\u00a0Existuje jen m\u00e1lo d\u016fkaz\u016f o tom, \u017ee by se \u0159eck\u00e1 ekonomika stala konkurenceschopn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0Fraser Institute za\u0159adil \u0158ecko v roce 2010 na 63. m\u00edsto mezi n\u00e1rody sv\u011bta.\u00a0Ve sv\u00e9 nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1v\u011b se \u0158ecko um\u00edstilo na 85. m\u00edst\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1 korupce je hlavn\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekou ekonomick\u00e9ho rozvoje Ukrajiny.\u00a0\u0158eck\u00e1 zku\u0161enost ukazuje, \u017ee schopnost EU bojovat proti korupci v praxi je omezen\u00e1.\u00a0Korupce je v \u0158ecku st\u00e1le velk\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem.\u00a0Pr\u016fzkum Evropsk\u00e9 komise z roku 2022 zjistil, \u017ee 98 procent \u0159eck\u00fdch respondent\u016f v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee v jejich zemi buj\u00ed korupce \u2013 co\u017e je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed procento ze v\u0161ech zem\u00ed EU.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 demografii Ukrajiny, jej\u00edmu hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed ze sov\u011btsk\u00e9 \u00e9ry a v\u00fdsledk\u016fm EU v oblasti struktur\u00e1ln\u00edch reforem by bylo o\u017eiven\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9 i za t\u011bch nejlep\u0161\u00edch okolnost\u00ed.\u00a0Dal\u0161\u00ed bitvy zp\u016fsob\u00ed, \u017ee o\u017eiven\u00ed bude je\u0161t\u011b obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a n\u00e1kladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Snem neocon\u016f pro Ukrajinu je, \u017ee bude slou\u017eit jako v\u00fdchodn\u00ed hr\u00e1z NATO proti \u00fadajn\u00fdm rusk\u00fdm expanzivn\u00edm tendenc\u00edm.\u00a0Uskute\u010dn\u011bn\u00ed tohoto snu bude vy\u017eadovat pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed ekonomiky zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed eskalace v\u00e1lky d\u00e1le zdecimuje infrastrukturu zem\u011b a zt\u00ed\u017e\u00ed obnovu, proto\u017ee ob\u011bt\u00ed v\u00e1lky se stane velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed mlad\u00fdch Ukrajinc\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed mohli investovat sv\u00e9 \u017eivoty do obnovy zem\u011b.\u00a0\u010c\u00edm d\u00e9le se v\u00e1lka protahuje, t\u00edm je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 Ukrajina nebude nez\u00e1visl\u00fdm n\u00e1rodem, ale bude dlouhodob\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na Z\u00e1pad\u011b, pokud jde o vojenskou a ekonomickou pomoc, kterou pot\u0159ebuje k p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed v\u016fdci pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed vysv\u011btlit sv\u00e9 ve\u0159ejnosti zjevn\u00e9 kompromisy mezi sledov\u00e1n\u00edm vojensk\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f NATO, kup\u0159.\u00a0B. posunut\u00ed Ruska zp\u011bt na hranice p\u0159ed rokem 2014 a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee dosa\u017een\u00ed t\u011bchto c\u00edl\u016f znemo\u017en\u00ed op\u011btovn\u00e9 sjednocen\u00ed Ukrajiny po skon\u010den\u00ed st\u0159elby.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Dvacetilet\u00e9 americk\u00e9 anga\u017em\u00e1 v Ir\u00e1ku a Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee budov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1roda je \u010dasto dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed, n\u00e1chyln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":22771,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[2749,26,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23819"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23819"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23819\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23820,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23819\/revisions\/23820"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22771"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23819"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23819"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23819"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}