{"id":2347,"date":"2021-06-08T06:35:30","date_gmt":"2021-06-08T04:35:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=2347"},"modified":"2021-06-08T06:35:30","modified_gmt":"2021-06-08T04:35:30","slug":"zapad-pripravuje-namornictvo-rf-o-strategickou-zakladnu-v-africe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2021\/06\/08\/zapad-pripravuje-namornictvo-rf-o-strategickou-zakladnu-v-africe\/","title":{"rendered":"Z\u00e1pad p\u0159ipravuje N\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo RF o strategickou z\u00e1kladnu v Africe"},"content":{"rendered":"
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N\u011bkolik dn\u00ed koluj\u00edc\u00ed zv\u011bsti o tom, \u017ee S\u00fad\u00e1n ru\u0161\u00ed dohodu o vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1kladny N\u00e1mo\u0159nictva RF na sv\u00e9m pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed, se potvrdily. Pro\u010d se s\u00fad\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da rozhodla poru\u0161it sv\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky, jak se do t\u00e9to z\u00e1le\u017eitosti zapletli ameri\u010dt\u00ed sen\u00e1to\u0159i a jak\u00e9 n\u00e1sledky bude m\u00edt sou\u010dasn\u00e9 d\u011bn\u00ed pro S\u00fad\u00e1n?<\/p>\n

S\u00fad\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u011b vl\u00e1dne sv\u00e9mu slovu, a sice, kdy\u017e se rozhodla vz\u00edt ho zp\u011bt. Veden\u00ed t\u00e9to zem\u011b se\u00a0rozhodlo<\/a>\u00a0\u201ep\u0159ehodnotit dohodu\u201c o budov\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed z\u00e1kladny na sv\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n
Samotn\u00e9 dohody\u00a0bylo dosa\u017eeno<\/a>\u00a0v prosinci 2020 na obdob\u00ed 25 let. Podle n\u00ed byl na s\u00fad\u00e1nsk\u00e9m pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e vytvo\u0159en bod pro z\u00e1kladnu rusk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch lod\u00ed, kde se sou\u010dasn\u011b m\u016f\u017eou nach\u00e1zet a\u017e 4 lod\u011b (v\u010detn\u011b atomov\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny) a m\u016f\u017ee se zde tak\u00e9 neust\u00e1le zdr\u017eovat na 300 rusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f. D\u00edky tomuto bodu z\u00edskala Moskva mo\u017enost zajistit svou neust\u00e1lou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnost v nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm regionu pro sv\u011btov\u00e9 trhy: hned vedle Suezsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fplavu (p\u0159es kter\u00fd vede n\u00e1kladn\u00ed cesta mezi Evropou a Asi\u00ed) a Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu (kde se soust\u0159e\u010fuje v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st sv\u011btov\u00fdch z\u00e1sob uhlovod\u00edku).<\/p>\n

S\u00fad\u00e1n p\u0159itom tak\u00e9 nez\u016fstal ve ztr\u00e1t\u011b. Podle podm\u00ednek, dan\u00fdch dohodou nejen \u017ee dalo Rusko zemi bezplatn\u011b vojenskou techniku, nejen \u017ee se zav\u00e1zalo k dod\u00e1n\u00ed financ\u00ed pro modernizaci p\u0159\u00edstavu, ale de facto na sebe vzalo tak\u00e9 povinnost zachov\u00e1vat z\u00e1kon a po\u0159\u00e1dek v oblasti z\u00e1kladny a v\u016fbec ve V\u00fdchodn\u00edm S\u00fad\u00e1nu (kde se nach\u00e1z\u00ed siln\u00e9 pozice nep\u0159\u00e1tel s\u00fad\u00e1nsk\u00e9 moci).<\/p>\n

\u201eStavba velk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v Port S\u00fad\u00e1nu je jednou z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch hybn\u00fdch sil ekonomick\u00e9 renesance tohoto regionu, kter\u00fdm nav\u00edc proch\u00e1z\u00ed hlavn\u00ed exportn\u00ed ropovod z Ji\u017en\u00edho S\u00fad\u00e1nu. Odtud se tak\u00e9 pl\u00e1nuje stavba transafrick\u00e9 \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00ed magistr\u00e1ly a cesty na jih S\u00fad\u00e1nu\u201c,\u00a0napsal<\/a>\u00a0rusk\u00fd Institut Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho V\u00fdchodu.<\/p>\n

Pomocn\u00e9 st\u00e1ty<\/h2>\n

Av\u0161ak v t\u00e9 dob\u011b m\u011blo pro S\u00fad\u00e1n t\u00e9ma t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed rusk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny p\u016fvodn\u011b form\u00e1ln\u00ed rozm\u011br \u2013 jako sou\u010d\u00e1st dlouh\u00e9ho a slo\u017eit\u00e9ho procesu normalizace s\u00fad\u00e1nsko-americk\u00fdch vztah\u016f. A s\u00fad\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da zatla\u010dila na toto t\u00e9ma poka\u017ed\u00e9, kdy\u017e se jejich jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o normalizaci vztah\u016f s USA dostalo do slep\u00e9 uli\u010dky. Na konci minul\u00e9ho roku se proces normalizace prudce urychlil \u2013 Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty u\u010dinily \u0159adu vst\u0159\u00edcn\u00fdch krok\u016f v\u016f\u010di s\u00fad\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1d\u011b. USA odstranily zemi ze seznamu komplic\u016f terorismu a v b\u0159eznu 2021\u00a0vy\u010dlenily<\/a>\u00a0kr\u00e1tkodobou p\u016fj\u010dku 1,15 miliard dolar\u016f na likvidaci s\u00fad\u00e1nsk\u00e9 zadlu\u017eenosti u Sv\u011btov\u00e9 banky.<\/p>\n

V prvn\u00edch kv\u011btnov\u00fdch dnech\u00a0nav\u0161t\u00edvili<\/a>\u00a0S\u00fad\u00e1n za \u00fa\u010delem inspekce dva ameri\u010dt\u00ed sen\u00e1to\u0159i z rady pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitosti Sen\u00e1tu USA \u2013 Chris van Hollen a Christopher Coons (posledn\u00ed byl jedn\u00edm z kandid\u00e1t\u016f na m\u00edsto st\u00e1tn\u00edho tajemn\u00edka v r\u00e1mci Bidenovy kancel\u00e1\u0159e), kte\u0159\u00ed sl\u00edbili nov\u00e9 tran\u0161e finan\u010dn\u00ed pomoci. Krajn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 a pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 pro S\u00fad\u00e1n, jeho\u017e ekonomika doslova balancuje na hran\u011b kolapsu.<\/p>\n

Za posledn\u00ed roky se sn\u00ed\u017eila n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t (na 19 miliard dolar\u016f), a celkov\u00fd vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dluh\u00a0tvo\u0159il<\/a>\u00a0v dubnu 2021 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 60 miliard dolar\u016f, to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee t\u0159ikr\u00e1t p\u0159ev\u00fd\u0161il HDP zem\u011b. P\u0159i\u010dem\u017e zadlu\u017eenost ka\u017ed\u00fdm rokem roste, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm kv\u016fli kolos\u00e1ln\u00edmu tr\u017en\u00edmu deficitu. V r. 2020\u00a0vyvezl<\/a>\u00a0S\u00fad\u00e1n zbo\u017e\u00ed v hodnot\u011b 3,8 miliard dolar\u016f a importoval za 9,2 miliard.<\/p>\n

U\u017e od za\u010d\u00e1tku kv\u011btna kolovaly zv\u011bsti o tom, \u017ee s\u00fad\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da hodl\u00e1 vz\u00edt zp\u011bt sv\u00e9 sliby Rusku. Hlava gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu zem\u011b Muhammad Osman al-Husajn \u0159ekl, \u017ee jestli se d\u0159\u00edve S\u00fad\u00e1n \u201eomezoval na vojenskou spolupr\u00e1ci s Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou\u201c, nyn\u00ed se objevila mo\u017enost \u201espolupracovat s USA a z\u00e1padn\u00edmi zem\u011bmi\u201c.<\/p>\n

Kdo to zaplat\u00ed<\/h2>\n

Patrn\u011b se prvkem t\u00e9to spolupr\u00e1ce stane odm\u00edtnut\u00ed um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed rusk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny. Odm\u00edtnut\u00ed, za kter\u00e9 bude Z\u00e1pad (nepot\u0159ebuje rusk\u00e9 lod\u011b u vstupu do Suezsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fplavu) p\u0159ipraven \u0161t\u011bd\u0159e zaplatit a pokr\u00fdt \u010d\u00e1st s\u00fad\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho dluhu. Nu a nebo neplatit jemu samotn\u00e9mu a p\u0159im\u011bt sv\u00e9 partnery Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017esk\u00e9ho klubu (na kter\u00e9 p\u0159ipad\u00e1 zna\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st s\u00fad\u00e1nsk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed zadlu\u017eenosti) tyto pen\u00edze jednodu\u0161e odepsat.<\/p>\n

S\u00fad\u00e1n m\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b jednu variantu b\u011bhu ud\u00e1lost\u00ed \u2013 vl\u00e1da m\u016f\u017ee jednodu\u0161e uspo\u0159\u00e1dat aukci mezi Ameri\u010dany a Rusy. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee nam\u00edsto definitivn\u00edho odm\u00edtnut\u00ed um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1kladny nab\u00eddne Moskv\u011b p\u0159ekon\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1vrhu Washingtonu a sponsorskou pomoc S\u00fad\u00e1nu vym\u011bn\u00ed za zachov\u00e1n\u00ed smlouvy o z\u00e1kladn\u011b rusk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva. Potom je v nejlep\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdchodn\u00edch tradic\u00edch obr\u00e1cen\u00ed se na USA s n\u00e1vrhem zlomit rusk\u00fd n\u00e1vrh v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. A tak po\u0159\u00e1d dokola.<\/p>\n

Rusko zat\u00edm na tak zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 perspektivy, nab\u00eddnut\u00e9 s\u00fad\u00e1nskou vl\u00e1dou, nedalo jasnou odpov\u011b\u010f. \u201eV r\u00e1mci diplomatick\u00fdch cest jsme se s\u00fad\u00e1nskou zem\u00ed v neust\u00e1l\u00e9m kontaktu. Budeme se t\u00edmto probl\u00e9mem zab\u00fdvat<\/i>\u201c, – \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 tiskov\u00fd mluv\u010d\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho prezidenta Dmitrij Peskov.<\/p>\n

Av\u0161ak p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bt reakci je u\u017e s velkou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9. Rusko se aukce \u00fa\u010dastnit nebude, aby nevytvo\u0159ilo podobn\u00fd precedens v komunikaci s jin\u00fdmi partnery. H\u00e1dat se a pohor\u0161ovat se tak\u00e9 nebude, to nen\u00ed jeho styl. Ani Moskva nebude nutit S\u00fad\u00e1n dodr\u017eovat sv\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky, k tomu nem\u00e1 dostate\u010dn\u00fd vliv (objem rusk\u00e9ho exportu do S\u00fad\u00e1nu \u010din\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 374 ml. dolar\u016f a importuje s\u00fad\u00e1nsk\u00e9 produkty pouze za 182 tis\u00edc dolar\u016f). Jestli u\u017e m\u00e1 n\u011bkdo p\u0159inutit S\u00fad\u00e1n, tak jsou to jeho arab\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159\u00e1tel\u00e9-sponzo\u0159i z Egypta a Emir\u00e1t\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed samotn\u00ed pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed ruskou z\u00e1kladnu v oblasti Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e (jako garanta stability a protiv\u00e1hu v regionu posiluj\u00edc\u00edm Turk\u016fm).<\/p>\n

Trest p\u0159inese \u010das<\/h2>\n

Rusko dokonce nebude trestat S\u00fad\u00e1n za poru\u0161en\u00ed dohody (pot\u0159ebuje vr\u00e1tit techniku, kterou t\u00e9to africk\u00e9 zemi p\u0159edala v r\u00e1mci dohody \u2013 nap\u0159. v\u00fdcvikov\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 plavidlo). Jestli u\u017e n\u011bkdo potrest\u00e1 S\u00fad\u00e1n za toto rozhodnut\u00ed, tak je to \u010das. V\u017edy\u0165 odm\u00edtnut\u00edm pln\u011bn\u00ed smlouvy s Moskvou kv\u016fli nad\u011bj\u00edm na zlep\u0161en\u00ed vztah\u016f se Z\u00e1padem s\u00fad\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee nen\u00ed schopna pou\u010dit se z chyb. Z chyb, zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch jin\u00fdmi l\u00eddry, kte\u0159\u00ed se rozhodli tak\u00e9 vstoupit do t\u00e9to hry.<\/p>\n

Z chyb \u00cdr\u00e1nu, kter\u00fd (po uzav\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ce se Z\u00e1padem) zru\u0161il \u0159adu kontrakt\u016f s rusk\u00fdmi spole\u010dnostmi pro to, aby je mohl znovu sjednat s italsk\u00fdmi, n\u011bmeck\u00fdmi a francouzsk\u00fdmi producenty. Proto\u017ee zast\u00e1val tyto n\u00e1zory: a) co je ze Z\u00e1padu bude kvalitn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed; b) kontrakty budou slou\u017eit jako investice do upevn\u011bn\u00ed politick\u00fdch vztah\u016f s evropsk\u00fdmi metropolemi. Kdy\u017e Evropa odm\u00edtla plnit sv\u00e9 smluvn\u00ed z\u00e1vazky pot\u00e9, co USA uvalily sankce a Teher\u00e1n z\u016fstal u rozbit\u00e9ho koryta.<\/p>\n

Bez zbo\u017e\u00ed, bez pov\u011bsti, bez pen\u011bz \u2013 a s poka\u017een\u00fdmi rusko-\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi vztahy.<\/p>\n

Z chyb B\u011bloruska, jeho\u017e prezident Alexandr Luka\u0161enko diverzifikoval nejen ekonomick\u00e9, ale i politick\u00e9 vztahy s Ruskem na \u00fakor Z\u00e1padu. Ve v\u00fdsledku zaujal z\u00e1visl\u00fd postoj na USA a EU, \u010deho\u017e tak\u00e9 vyu\u017eily, kdy\u017e se otev\u0159en\u011b a demonstrativn\u011b vm\u011b\u0161ovaly do b\u011blorusk\u00fdch vnit\u0159n\u00edch z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm ochrann\u011bpr\u00e1vn\u00ed br\u00e1ny (a tato br\u00e1na je v S\u00fad\u00e1nu zna\u010dn\u011b \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v B\u011blorusku). A kdy\u017e odm\u00edtlo n\u00e1sledovat cenn\u00e1 pou\u010den\u00ed, uvalily proti n\u011bmu sankce. Kv\u016fli t\u011bmto ud\u00e1lostem byl pot\u00e9 nucen let\u011bt k Putinovi do So\u010di s prosbou o z\u00e1chranu b\u011blorusk\u00e9 ekonomiky.<\/p>\n

Nakonec z chyb Kadd\u00e1f\u00edho a jeho Libye. Kte\u0159\u00ed za sv\u016fj pokus o diversifikaci a nad\u011bji na p\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed se Z\u00e1padem zaplatili nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cenu \u2013 vlastn\u00edmi \u017eivoty. Nakonec nen\u00ed ani Kadd\u00e1f\u00ed, ani Libye (kter\u00e1 se zm\u011bnila v teritorium v\u00e1l\u010d\u00edc\u00edch kmen\u016f). A S\u00fad\u00e1n s jeho ohromn\u00fdm pod\u00edlem vnit\u0159n\u00ed opozice \u010dek\u00e1 tak\u00e9 na obzoru takov\u00e1 perspektiva v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee nebude vyb\u00edrav\u00fd p\u0159i volb\u011b p\u0159\u00e1tel a partner\u016f.<\/p>\n

Gevorg Mirzajan<\/p>\n

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\u0417\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0434 \u043b\u0438\u0448\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u0412\u041c\u0424 \u0420\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0438 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0435\u0433\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0439 \u0431\u0430\u0437\u044b \u0432 \u0410\u0444\u0440\u0438\u043a\u0435<\/a> vy\u0161el 2.6.2021 na vz.ru. P\u0159eklad Zv\u011bdavec.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Zvedavec.org<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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 <\/p>\n<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

N\u011bkolik dn\u00ed koluj\u00edc\u00ed zv\u011bsti o tom, \u017ee S\u00fad\u00e1n ru\u0161\u00ed dohodu o vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1kladny N\u00e1mo\u0159nictva RF…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2348,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[571,22,570,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2347"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2347"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2347\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2348"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2347"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2347"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2347"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}