{"id":23370,"date":"2023-02-23T01:05:37","date_gmt":"2023-02-23T00:05:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=23370"},"modified":"2023-02-22T17:57:00","modified_gmt":"2023-02-22T16:57:00","slug":"james-g-rickards-kruty-konec-na-ukrajine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/02\/23\/james-g-rickards-kruty-konec-na-ukrajine\/","title":{"rendered":"James G. Rickards: Krut\u00fd konec na Ukrajin\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ve v\u010derej\u0161\u00edm vyd\u00e1n\u00ed jsem se zab\u00fdval nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm a nejslo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mem v dne\u0161n\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 krajin\u011b \u2013 \u010c\u00ednou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale dnes mluv\u00edm o zdaleka nejznepokojiv\u011bj\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mu v dne\u0161n\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 krajin\u011b.\u00a0Je o v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b a nebezpe\u010d\u00ed eskalace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozs\u00e1hle jsem psal o dvou aspektech v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b, kter\u00e9 nesly\u0161\u00edte v mainstreamov\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech nebo v Brit\u00e1nii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia jako New York Times (kan\u00e1l ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed) a Washington Post (kan\u00e1l CIA) donekone\u010dna informuj\u00ed o tom, jak rusk\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny selhaly, jak jsou neschopn\u00ed, jak ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly (AFU) dr\u017e\u00ed Rusy v odsunut\u00e9m Donbasu a jak zbran\u011b NATO, jako jsou americk\u00e9 tanky Abrams, britsk\u00e9 tanky Challenger a n\u011bmeck\u00e9 tanky Leopard, brzy obr\u00e1t\u00ed p\u0159\u00edliv proti Rusku.<\/span><\/p>\n

To je v\u0161echno nesmysl.\u00a0Nic z toho nen\u00ed pravda.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kontrola reality<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Za prv\u00e9, ukrajinsk\u00e9 z\u00e1lohy koncem l\u00e9ta sm\u011b\u0159ovaly do lehce br\u00e1n\u011bn\u00fdch pozic, kter\u00e9 Rusov\u00e9 rychle opustili, aby uchovali sv\u00e9 s\u00edly.\u00a0Rusov\u00e9 byli p\u0159ipraveni vzd\u00e1t se zem\u011b, aby nep\u0159i\u0161li o cenn\u00e9 mu\u017ee a materi\u00e1l.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusov\u00e9 se st\u00e1hli na l\u00e9pe obhajiteln\u00e9 pozice a od t\u00e9 doby ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fato\u010dn\u00edky t\u011b\u017ece zra\u0148ovali. Ukrajina p\u0159i t\u011bchto marn\u00fdch a nedomy\u0161len\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch vypl\u00fdtvala neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed mu\u017e\u016f a vybaven\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v se po\u010det ztr\u00e1t AFU bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed 500 000 a nar\u016fst\u00e1 neudr\u017eiteln\u00fdm tempem.\u00a0Na druhou stranu, zpr\u00e1vy o 100 000 rusk\u00fdch mrtv\u00fdch jsou t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b divokou nads\u00e1zkou, kterou Ukrajina prod\u00e1v\u00e1.\u00a0BBC se pokusila tato \u010d\u00edsla ov\u011b\u0159it a na z\u00e1klad\u011b rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9ho v\u00fdzkumu poh\u0159ebn\u00edch ozn\u00e1men\u00ed, ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch z\u00e1znam\u016f atd. mohla naj\u00edt pouze asi 20 000 potvrzen\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch mrtv\u00fdch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po\u0161lete tanky – kone\u010dn\u011b!<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A co tanky, kter\u00e9 pr\u00fd NATO pos\u00edl\u00e1?\u00a0No, tanky je\u0161t\u011b nebyly dod\u00e1ny a v\u011bt\u0161ina doraz\u00ed a\u017e za p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f nebo d\u00e9le.\u00a0Na\u0161e vlastn\u00ed tanky M1 Abrams mo\u017en\u00e1 doraz\u00ed a\u017e za rok nebo d\u00e9le.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jmenovit\u011b mus\u00edme tyto tanky postavit na zak\u00e1zku, proto\u017ee nemaj\u00ed speci\u00e1ln\u00ed panc\u00e9\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed pokro\u010dil\u00e9 syst\u00e9my, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed na\u0161e vlastn\u00ed tanky M1.\u00a0Pentagon nechce, aby padly do rusk\u00fdch rukou, pokud budou zni\u010deny nebo zajaty.\u00a0Krom\u011b toho, stejn\u011b pos\u00edl\u00e1me jen 31 tank\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e tanky NATO doraz\u00ed, budou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b rychle zni\u010deny rusk\u00fdm d\u011blost\u0159electvem, protitankov\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi a p\u0159esn\u00fdmi st\u0159elami.\u00a0Jsou to dobr\u00e9 tanky, ale zdaleka ne neporaziteln\u00e9.\u00a0Rusov\u00e9 po desetilet\u00ed vyv\u00edjeli v\u00fdkonn\u00e9 zbran\u011b speci\u00e1ln\u011b ur\u010den\u00e9 k ni\u010den\u00ed t\u011bchto model\u016f tank\u016f NATO.\u00a0Rusov\u00e9 se o n\u011b nijak zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 nezaj\u00edmaj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b toho se tanky spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na \u00fa\u010dinnou protivzdu\u0161nou obranu, kterou Ukrajina nem\u00e1.\u00a0Budou snadnou ko\u0159ist\u00ed na boji\u0161ti.\u00a0Nem\u00e1 smysl pos\u00edlat tanky na Ukrajinu, pokud nepo\u0161lete st\u00edha\u010dky, aby je kryly (v\u00edce o tom n\u00ed\u017ee).<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko v\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed na bitevn\u00edm poli<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 obkl\u00ed\u010dily m\u011bsto Bachmut.\u00a0Bakhmut je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm dopravn\u00edm a logistick\u00fdm centrem, kter\u00fdm proch\u00e1z\u00ed n\u011bkolik d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch silnic a \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00edch trat\u00ed.\u00a0B\u011bhem p\u00e1r t\u00fddn\u016f ji pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vezmou Rusov\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ztr\u00e1ta Bachmuta by byla pro Ukrajinu velkou ranou, p\u0159esto\u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee m\u011bsto nen\u00ed nutn\u00e9.\u00a0Cel\u00e1 800 mil dlouh\u00e1 obrann\u00e1 linie Ukrajiny by se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b za\u010dala hroutit a Ukrajina nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 siln\u011b opevn\u011bn\u00e9 pozice, o kter\u00e9 by se mohla op\u0159\u00edt.\u00a0P\u0159esto\u017ee jsou ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci state\u010dn\u00ed a schopn\u00ed voj\u00e1ci, jsou ji\u017e vy\u010derpan\u00ed a doch\u00e1z\u00ed jim z\u00e1soby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b toho je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee Rusko p\u0159ipravuje zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed ofenz\u00edvu zahrnuj\u00edc\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed mu\u017e\u016f, tank\u016f, obrn\u011bn\u00fdch transport\u00e9r\u016f, d\u011blost\u0159electva, vrtuln\u00edk\u016f, dron\u016f a letadel s pevn\u00fdmi k\u0159\u00eddly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da nen\u00ed stejn\u00e1 arm\u00e1da, kter\u00e1 p\u0159ed rokem napadla Ukrajinu.\u00a0Je mnohem l\u00e9pe vycvi\u010den\u00e1, veden\u00e1 a vybaven\u00e1.\u00a0Pou\u010dila se z chyb, kter\u00fdch se dopustila p\u0159i sv\u00e9 prvn\u00ed invazi loni v \u00fanoru.\u00a0Ukrajina by nem\u011bla o\u010dek\u00e1vat opakov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto chyb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Znamen\u00e1 to v\u0161echno, \u017ee slav\u00edm rusk\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b?\u00a0Ne, jen pozoruji fakta na m\u00edst\u011b a zhu\u0161\u0165uji je, abych provedl objektivn\u00ed anal\u00fdzu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato anal\u00fdza m\u011b vede k p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko v\u00e1lku vojensky vyhraje.\u00a0Z\u00e1padn\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 pomoc m\u016f\u017ee prodlou\u017eit boje, ale neovlivn\u00ed kone\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek.\u00a0Jen to odd\u00e1l\u00ed nevyhnuteln\u00e9 a zbyte\u010dn\u011b zabije dal\u0161\u00ed lidi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Druhou str\u00e1nkou t\u00e9to v\u00e1lky, o kter\u00e9 se v m\u00e9di\u00edch nep\u00ed\u0161e, nebo je alespo\u0148 bagatelizov\u00e1na, je rostouc\u00ed riziko jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto riziko se zvy\u0161uje s ka\u017ed\u00fdm krokem eskalace na obou stran\u00e1ch.\u00a0USA vedou nel\u00edtostnou eskalaci, dod\u00e1vaj\u00ed st\u0159ely dlouh\u00e9ho doletu, baterie protiraketov\u00fdch st\u0159el Patriot, zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby, sledovac\u00ed syst\u00e9my a nyn\u00ed i tanky. Rusko reaguje na ka\u017ed\u00fd krok.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ne\u017e ob\u011b strany dos\u00e1hnou jadern\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b, zb\u00fdv\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b \u0159ada krok\u016f, ale ani jedna neprojevila ochotu ud\u011blat krok zp\u011bt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mimochodem, Rusko m\u00e1 pln\u00e9 z\u00e1konn\u00e9 pr\u00e1vo napadnout zem\u011b NATO dod\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed zbran\u011b Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0T\u00edm, \u017ee dod\u00e1vaj\u00ed zbran\u011b stran\u011b konfliktu, vzdali se sv\u00e9 neutrality a v podstat\u011b se stali bojovn\u00edky.\u00a0Rusko to neud\u011blalo, proto\u017ee nechce zapojit NATO p\u0159\u00edmo do boje.\u00a0Ale leg\u00e1ln\u011b m\u016f\u017ee.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dej, dej, dej<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Po\u017eadavky Ukrajiny na USA, Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed a zbytek NATO na modern\u00ed zbran\u011b pro boj s Rusy neznaj\u00ed hranic.\u00a0Z\u00e1pad zpo\u010d\u00e1tku z\u00e1soboval Ukrajinu pen\u011bzi, zpravodajsk\u00fdmi informacemi a protitankov\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi, jako je raketa Javelin.\u00a0Brzy jsme dod\u00e1vali d\u011blost\u0159electvo na velk\u00e9 vzd\u00e1lenosti, drony a je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce pen\u011bz.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak rusk\u00fd postup pokra\u010doval, Zelenskij po\u017e\u00e1dal a obdr\u017eel protiraketov\u00e9 baterie Patriot schopn\u00e9 ni\u010dit p\u0159il\u00e9taj\u00edc\u00ed rusk\u00e9 rakety.\u00a0Americk\u00e9 d\u011blost\u0159electvo m\u00ed\u0159ilo na rusk\u00fd Krym.\u00a0N\u011bkolik dron\u016f zas\u00e1hlo v Rusku nukle\u00e1rn\u00edmi zbran\u011bmi\u00a0 vybaven\u00e9 a citliv\u00e9 nedalek\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed po\u017eadavek na dal\u0161\u00ed zbran\u011b se t\u00fdkal modern\u00edch tank\u016f, kter\u00e9 v sou\u010dasnosti dod\u00e1vaj\u00ed USA, Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie, N\u011bmecko a Polsko.\u00a0Posledn\u00edm krokem je nep\u0159ekvapiv\u011b po\u017eadavek Ukrajiny na st\u00edha\u010dky F-16 vyroben\u00e9 v USA, jedno z nejvysp\u011blej\u0161\u00edch letadel na sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko m\u00e1 v\u0161ak nejpropracovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed syst\u00e9m protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany na sv\u011bt\u011b a je velmi schopn\u00e9 sest\u0159elovat st\u00edha\u010dky F-16 ve velk\u00e9m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Biden zat\u00edm Zelensk\u00e9ho \u017e\u00e1dost odm\u00edtl, ale zpo\u010d\u00e1tku vylu\u010doval vysl\u00e1n\u00ed tank\u016f, ne\u017e nakonec ustoupil.\u00a0Tot\u00e9\u017e se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b stane s letadly.\u00a0Proti Rusku ale v\u00fdvoj nezm\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak\u00fd je dal\u0161\u00ed po\u017eadavek Ukrajinc\u016f, pokud se uk\u00e1\u017ee, \u017ee tyto modern\u00ed syst\u00e9my nemohou pomoci?\u00a0Rusko m\u016f\u017ee eskalovat stejn\u011b rychle a smrtonosn\u011b jako USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cel\u00fd tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je dlouh\u00fd, pomal\u00fd pochod sm\u011brem k jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lce nebo \u00fapln\u00e9mu rozpadu Ukrajiny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je na to opravdu n\u011bkdo p\u0159ipraven?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

USA nezastav\u00ed dod\u00e1vky zbran\u00ed, proto\u017ee Joe Biden se boj\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty tv\u00e1\u0159e a jeho nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed poradci jako Victoria Nuland iracion\u00e1ln\u011b nen\u00e1vid\u00ed Rusko a jsou absolutn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00ed \u0161tv\u00e1\u010di.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed m\u016f\u017eeme p\u0159idat nov\u00e9 nebezpe\u010d\u00ed, kter\u00e9 poch\u00e1z\u00ed ze zoufalstv\u00ed.\u00a0To je fakt, \u017ee USA samotn\u00e9 by mohly b\u00fdt nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm pora\u017een\u00fdm v t\u00e9to v\u00e1lce.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edm v\u00edce Ukrajina miz\u00ed pod masivn\u00edm rusk\u00fdm n\u00e1porem, t\u00edm jsou Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty zoufalej\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0Jejich d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost je ohro\u017eena pot\u00e9, co do obrany Ukrajiny nalili tolik pen\u011bz, materi\u00e1ln\u00ed a mor\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1hy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bidenova administrativa v podstat\u011b prom\u011bnila v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b v existen\u010dn\u00ed krizi pro USA a NATO, kterou nikdy nem\u011bla b\u00fdt.\u00a0Ukrajina nikdy nebyla \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm z\u00e1jmem Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f.\u00a0Ale v\u00e1lka je pro Rusko existen\u010dn\u00ed a ono se nevzd\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Budou Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jen sed\u011bt a uznaj\u00ed rusk\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed? Tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 takov\u00e9mu velkolep\u00e9mu selh\u00e1n\u00ed by se NATO skute\u010dn\u011b mohlo rozpadnout.\u00a0Tak\u017ee asi p\u016fjdeme je\u0161t\u011b o krok d\u00e1l.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 zoufal\u00fd Biden na\u0159\u00edd\u00ed vstup voj\u00e1k\u016fm na z\u00e1padn\u00ed Ukrajinu jako n\u00e1razn\u00edk proti pln\u00e9mu rusk\u00e9mu ovl\u00e1dnut\u00ed zem\u011b. Dok\u00e1\u017eete si p\u0159edstavit, co se m\u016f\u017ee pokazit.\u00a0Situace by mohla rychle eskalovat v p\u0159\u00edmou v\u00e1lku mezi USA a Ruskem, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e v z\u00e1stupnou v\u00e1lku, jak je tomu nyn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd lid, a zejm\u00e9na investo\u0159i, na to v\u0161echno nejsou p\u0159ipraveni.\u00a0Ale m\u011bli by b\u00fdt.\u00a0Je to \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l t\u00edm pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

James G. Rickards<\/strong> je redaktorem Strategic Intelligence, Project Prophesy, Crash Speculator a Gold Spekulator.\u00a0Je to americk\u00fd pr\u00e1vn\u00edk, ekonom a investi\u010dn\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159 se 40 lety zku\u0161enost\u00ed s kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdmi trhy na Wall Street.\u00a0Byl hlavn\u00edm makl\u00e9\u0159em p\u0159i z\u00e1chrann\u00e9 akci Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu pro Long-Term Capital Management LP (LTCM) v roce 1998. Mezi jeho klienty pat\u0159\u00ed institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed investo\u0159i a vl\u00e1dn\u00ed agentury.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Ve v\u010derej\u0161\u00edm vyd\u00e1n\u00ed jsem se zab\u00fdval nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm a nejslo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mem v dne\u0161n\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 krajin\u011b \u2013…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":23371,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,220,39,22,26,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23370"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23370"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23370\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23372,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23370\/revisions\/23372"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23371"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23370"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23370"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23370"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}