{"id":23298,"date":"2023-02-21T08:23:46","date_gmt":"2023-02-21T07:23:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=23298"},"modified":"2023-02-21T08:23:46","modified_gmt":"2023-02-21T07:23:46","slug":"stav-ruske-ekonomiky-neprestava-udivovat-zapadni-odborniky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/02\/21\/stav-ruske-ekonomiky-neprestava-udivovat-zapadni-odborniky\/","title":{"rendered":"Stav rusk\u00e9 ekonomiky nep\u0159est\u00e1v\u00e1 udivovat z\u00e1padn\u00ed odborn\u00edky"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>Protirusk\u00e9 sankce uvalil Z\u00e1pad s c\u00edlem ekonomick\u00e9ho vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed a potrest\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska za \u201erozpout\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu.\u00a0P\u0159esto se rusk\u00e1 \u201ev\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 ma\u0161in\u00e9rie\u201c nezastavila a pokles HDP zem\u011b byl loni men\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo.\u00a0Letos n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed experti dokonce p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst Ruska, p\u00ed\u0161e Tidningen N\u00e4ringslivet.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Podle partnera advok\u00e1tn\u00ed kancel\u00e1\u0159e Baker McKenzie a experta na sankce Matthiase Hedwala maj\u00ed sankce vliv na ruskou ekonomiku.\u00a0Existuj\u00ed v\u0161ak st\u00e1ty, jako je \u010c\u00edna, zem\u011b Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky a n\u011bkter\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b mimo EU, kter\u00e9 st\u00e1le pokra\u010duj\u00ed ve velk\u00fdch obchodech s Moskvou, nap\u0159\u00edklad v energetice.<\/p>\n<p>V p\u0159edve\u010der zaveden\u00ed des\u00e1t\u00e9ho bal\u00ed\u010dku unijn\u00edch sankc\u00ed se nejv\u00edce diskutovalo o tom, jak vytvo\u0159it jednotn\u00fd syst\u00e9m omezen\u00ed.\u00a0Podle pr\u00e1vn\u00edka jsou v r\u016fzn\u00fdch zem\u00edch na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u00farovni mezery, kter\u00e9 umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed obej\u00edt omezen\u00ed.\u00a0Hedval nav\u00edc podot\u00fdk\u00e1, \u017ee tresty za nedodr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sankc\u00ed vypadaj\u00ed v r\u016fzn\u00fdch zem\u00edch EU r\u016fzn\u011b, od pokut po tresty odn\u011bt\u00ed svobody, p\u00ed\u0161e Tidningen N\u00e4ringslivet.\u00a0Expert si je jist\u00fd, \u017ee desetilet\u00ed globalizace a voln\u00e9ho obchodu jsou u konce \u2013 a nyn\u00ed mus\u00ed b\u00fdt \u0161v\u00e9dsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, kter\u00e9 jsou zvykl\u00e9 na prost\u0159ed\u00ed voln\u00e9ho obchodu, p\u0159ipraveny na rychl\u00e9 geopolitick\u00e9 zm\u011bny a nov\u00e1 obchodn\u00ed omezen\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Podle Pera Hammarlunda, ekonoma a b\u00fdval\u00e9ho hlavn\u00edho strat\u00e9ga banky SEB, nen\u00ed p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9, \u017ee si rusk\u00e1 ekonomika vedla\u00a0<em>\u201erelativn\u011b dob\u0159e\u201c<\/em>\u00a0.\u00a0Domn\u00edv\u00e1 se, \u017ee mnoh\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy \u0161patn\u011b odhadly finan\u010dn\u00ed a ekonomickou odolnost Ruska v prvn\u00edch t\u00fddnech po za\u010d\u00e1tku ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu.\u00a0Lidov\u00e1 povst\u00e1n\u00ed, v kter\u00e1 Z\u00e1pad doufal, se nekonala, proto\u017ee n\u011bkolik velk\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch bank bylo odpojeno od syst\u00e9mu Swift, kter\u00fd se pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed transakce.\u00a0Vl\u00e1dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjmy z v\u00fdvozu energie pomohly udr\u017eet ekonomiku v chodu navzdory skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee na bankovn\u00edch \u00fa\u010dtech na Z\u00e1pad\u011b byla zmrazena rusk\u00e1 aktiva v hodnot\u011b mnoha miliard dolar\u016f, zd\u016fraz\u0148uje Tidningen N\u00e4ringslivet.<\/p>\n<p>Hammarlund jako d\u016fvod uvedl rozhodn\u00fd krok rusk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky, kter\u00e1 prudce zv\u00fd\u0161ila \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby a zavedla \u00fa\u010dinnou kontrolu kapit\u00e1lu, kter\u00e1 zastavila jeho odliv ze zem\u011b.\u00a0Souhlas\u00ed s Hedwalem, \u017ee sankce proti Rusku m\u011bly \u00fa\u010dinek, ale nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti povedou k finan\u010dn\u00edmu kolapsu, p\u00ed\u0161e list.<\/p>\n<p>Nicm\u00e9n\u011b \u0161\u00e9f V\u00fdchodoevropsk\u00e9ho institutu Stockholmsk\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 \u0161koly Thorbj\u00f8rn Becker pova\u017euje progn\u00f3zu MMF pro Rusko za nespr\u00e1vnou a domn\u00edv\u00e1 se, \u017ee \u0161kody zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 ekonomice v d\u016fsledku ozbrojen\u00e9ho konfliktu a sankc\u00ed jsou mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e tomu bylo d\u0159\u00edve. zd\u00e1 se.\u00a0Ekonom je p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee Rusko z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b nezve\u0159ej\u0148uje citliv\u00e1 data a zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9 statistiky o HDP, sm\u011bnn\u00fdch kurzech a inflaci se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed\u00a0<em>\u201epropagandistick\u00e9 hry\u201c<\/em>\u00a0.<\/p>\n<p>R\u016fst rusk\u00e9 ekonomiky o 60\u201380 % je nav\u00edc podle Beckera d\u00e1n pohybem cen energi\u00ed na sv\u011btov\u00e9m trhu.\u00a0Podle experta vzrostla cena ropy v obdob\u00ed 2021 a\u017e 2022 o 40\u201350 %, co\u017e by v b\u011b\u017en\u00e9m roce p\u0159isp\u011blo k r\u016fstu rusk\u00e9 ekonomiky o 6\u20137 %.\u00a0Podle jeho logiky zaznamenan\u00fd propad rusk\u00e9 ekonomiky v roce 2022 o 2-3 % ve skute\u010dnosti znamen\u00e1 propad HDP zhruba o 10 %.\u00a0Becker p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1, \u017ee v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b Rusko nad\u00e1le prod\u00e1v\u00e1 ropu s v\u00fdraznou slevou asi 40 %, neboli 30 dolar\u016f za barel.\u00a0V\u011bdec nav\u00edc v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko poc\u00edt\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek sankc\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b letos, shrnuje Tidningen N\u00e4ringslivet.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-19187 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO-300x36.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1142\" height=\"137\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO-300x36.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO.jpg 699w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1142px) 100vw, 1142px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Protirusk\u00e9 sankce uvalil Z\u00e1pad s c\u00edlem ekonomick\u00e9ho vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed a potrest\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska za \u201erozpout\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu.\u00a0P\u0159esto&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9821,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[59,22,125,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23298"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23298"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23298\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9821"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}