{"id":22334,"date":"2023-02-06T01:00:33","date_gmt":"2023-02-06T00:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=22334"},"modified":"2023-02-05T15:40:18","modified_gmt":"2023-02-05T14:40:18","slug":"za-jakych-okolnosti-mohou-dodavky-zapadnich-zbrani-vest-k-jaderne-valce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/02\/06\/za-jakych-okolnosti-mohou-dodavky-zapadnich-zbrani-vest-k-jaderne-valce\/","title":{"rendered":"Za jak\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed mohou dod\u00e1vky z\u00e1padn\u00edch zbran\u00ed v\u00e9st k jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lce"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
Diskuse o dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch nov\u00fdch zbran\u00ed na Ukrajinu p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eej\u00ed fakt, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u011b existuje situace, kdy to m\u016f\u017ee velmi rychle v\u00e9st k jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lce.<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n
\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia a politici neust\u00e1le stra\u0161\u00ed lidi, \u017ee Rusko hroz\u00ed pou\u017eit\u00edm jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.\u00a0U\u017e jsem n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee \u2013 a pro\u010d \u2013 to nen\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>pravda<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0Zpr\u00e1vy v z\u00e1padn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00edch o \u00fadajn\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch hrozb\u00e1ch jadern\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi jsou \u010distou propagandou, jej\u00edm\u017e c\u00edlem je vyd\u011bsit lidi, aby je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce rozdm\u00fdchala protirusk\u00e9 n\u00e1lady, nic v\u00edc.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko m\u00e1 jasn\u011b formulovanou doktr\u00ednu mo\u017en\u00e9ho pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.\u00a0V souladu s t\u00edm m\u016f\u017ee Rusko pou\u017e\u00edt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b za \u010dty\u0159 podm\u00ednek:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. kdy\u017e nep\u0159\u00edtel pou\u017eije jadern\u00e9 nebo jin\u00e9 druhy zbran\u00ed hromadn\u00e9ho ni\u010den\u00ed proti Rusku a jeho spojenc\u016fm,<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. pokud existuj\u00ed v\u011brohodn\u00e9 informace o odp\u00e1len\u00ed balistick\u00fdch raket k \u00fatoku na Rusko a jeho spojence,<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. kdy\u017e nep\u0159\u00edtel \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed nezbytn\u00e1 pro odvetnou akci jadern\u00fdch sil, nebo<\/span><\/li>\n
  4. v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b agrese proti Rusku konven\u010dn\u00edmi zbran\u011bmi ohro\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed samotnou existenci rusk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Kdy\u017e ru\u0161t\u00ed politici mluv\u00ed o mo\u017en\u00e9m pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed (co\u017e z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia ozna\u010duj\u00ed jako \u201ehrozby\u201c), v\u017edy poukazuj\u00ed na konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, ve kter\u00fdch je spln\u011bna jedna nebo v\u00edce z t\u011bchto podm\u00ednek (jak z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia informuj\u00ed o \u00fadajn\u00fdch \u201erusk\u00fdch hrozb\u00e1ch\u201c „ale ml\u010d).<\/span><\/p>\n

    Ignorovan\u00e1 \u010derven\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ra<\/span><\/h3>\n

    Je jen jeden d\u016fvod, pro\u010d Rusko vojensky zas\u00e1hlo na Ukrajin\u011b: Z\u00e1pad ignoroval \u010dervenou \u010d\u00e1ru, \u017ee Rusko pova\u017euje \u010dlenstv\u00ed Ukrajiny v NATO za existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozbu pro sebe.\u00a0Rusko na to l\u00e9ta upozor\u0148ovalo, tak\u017ee Z\u00e1pad v\u011bd\u011bl, co d\u011bl\u00e1, kdy\u017e v lednu 2022 v\u00fdslovn\u011b odm\u00edtl odm\u00edtnout ambice Ukrajiny v NATO.\u00a0V\u00fdsledek vid\u00edme na Ukrajin\u011b od \u00fanora 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Putin je v Rusku kritizov\u00e1n p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm za to, \u017ee tak dlouho spol\u00e9hal na vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed se Z\u00e1padem.\u00a0Zp\u011btn\u011b se ti v Rusku, kte\u0159\u00ed dlouhodob\u011b zast\u00e1vaj\u00ed n\u00e1zor, \u017ee Rusko m\u011blo vojensky zas\u00e1hnout po kyjevsk\u00e9m \u00fatoku na Donbas v dubnu\/kv\u011btnu 2014, pokud by se dne\u0161n\u00ed trag\u00e9die nestalo, pova\u017euj\u00ed za potvrzen\u00e9, proto\u017ee tehdej\u0161\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da mohla ani jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s rebely v Donbasu by se rychle zhroutilo.<\/span><\/p>\n

    M\u00edsto toho se Putin osm let spol\u00e9hal na vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a doufal, \u017ee na Z\u00e1pad\u011b zv\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed to, co Putin v\u017edy naz\u00fdval \u201ezdrav\u00fd rozum\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Jak nyn\u00ed v\u00edme, nestalo se tak.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Od za\u010d\u00e1tku rusk\u00e9 intervence Z\u00e1pad zkou\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e9 \u010derven\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1ry.\u00a0V\u0161ichni si pamatujeme, \u017ee na za\u010d\u00e1tku konfliktu se Z\u00e1pad b\u00e1l dodat t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 zbran\u011b do Kyjeva, proto\u017ee to byla tak\u00e9 rusk\u00e1 \u010derven\u00e1 linie.\u00a0Z\u00e1pad tuto \u0159adu kousek po kousku testoval a roz\u0161i\u0159oval, stejn\u011b jako tomu bylo v letech 2014 a\u017e 2022 p\u0159i jedn\u00e1n\u00edch o Ukrajin\u011b, nap\u0159\u00edklad ve form\u00e1tu Normandie.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Nejprve Z\u00e1pad dodal n\u011bkolik houfnic a \u010dekal, jak Rusko zareaguje.\u00a0Pak p\u0159i\u0161ly protilodn\u00ed st\u0159ely Harpoon a potopen\u00ed rusk\u00e9 vlajkov\u00e9 lodi Moskva, mezit\u00edm se dod\u00e1vaj\u00ed st\u0159ely s doletem minim\u00e1ln\u011b 150 kilometr\u016f a t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 bojov\u00e9 tanky.\u00a0Z\u00e1pad opakuje svou chybu, kdy\u017e si ruskou trp\u011blivost a touhu d\u00e1le neeskalovat vykl\u00e1d\u00e1 tak, \u017ee umo\u017e\u0148uje Z\u00e1padu nad\u00e1le beztrestn\u011b p\u0159ekra\u010dovat rusk\u00e9 \u010derven\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1ry.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Uranov\u00e9 st\u0159elivo<\/span><\/h3>\n

    Na dotaz novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f USA – a tak\u00e9 n\u011bkter\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b NATO – necht\u011bly sd\u011blit, zda budou spole\u010dn\u011b s obrn\u011bn\u00fdmi transport\u00e9ry a hlavn\u00edmi bojov\u00fdmi tanky dod\u00e1vat i munici s ochuzen\u00fdm uranem, kter\u00e9 nyn\u00ed p\u0159ijdou.\u00a0Tato munice je levn\u00e1 a m\u00e1 velmi siln\u00fd pr\u016fbojn\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek.<\/span><\/p>\n

    P\u0159i procesu se v\u0161ak uvol\u0148uje ochuzen\u00fd uran, kter\u00fd se rozptyluje jako jemn\u00fd prach, kter\u00fd je vysoce toxick\u00fd.\u00a0USA nem\u011bly \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 v\u00fd\u010ditky ohledn\u011b pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00e9to munice v minul\u00fdch v\u00e1lk\u00e1ch.\u00a0\u010c\u00e1sti Srbska, Kosova, Ir\u00e1ku a tak d\u00e1le byly kontaminov\u00e1ny a v\u00fdskyt rakoviny v posti\u017een\u00fdch oblastech raketov\u011b stoup\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Atomov\u00e1 \u010derven\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ra<\/span><\/h3>\n

    Pokud by Z\u00e1pad dodal tuto munici na Ukrajinu, n\u00e1sledky jsou nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9, proto\u017ee ru\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 velmi jasn\u011b \u0159ekli, \u017ee Rusko by pova\u017eovalo pou\u017eit\u00ed t\u00e9to munice za pou\u017eit\u00ed \u0161pinav\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 bomby, proto\u017ee ve skute\u010dnosti je to p\u0159esn\u011b ono: vyst\u0159eluje se munice, kterou radioaktivn\u00ed materi\u00e1l rozptyluje \u2013 p\u0159esn\u011b tak funguje tzv. \u201e\u0161pinav\u00e1 bomba\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

    To by bylo pou\u017eit\u00ed \u201ejadern\u00fdch nebo jin\u00fdch typ\u016f zbran\u00ed hromadn\u00e9ho ni\u010den\u00ed proti Rusku a jeho spojenc\u016fm\u201c, jak uv\u00e1d\u00ed rusk\u00e1 doktr\u00edna jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.\u00a0A Rusko si ve skute\u010dnosti vyhrazuje pr\u00e1vo pou\u017e\u00edt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b jako odpov\u011b\u010f na to.<\/span><\/p>\n

    A to sotva proti Ukrajin\u011b, kter\u00e1 je p\u0159\u00edmo na rusk\u00e9m prahu, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e proti st\u00e1t\u016fm, kter\u00e9 Kyjevu tyto zbran\u011b dodaly.\u00a0Na rovinu se to d\u00e1 vyj\u00e1d\u0159it takto: „Kdy\u017e n\u011bkomu d\u00e1m nabitou zbra\u0148 a pen\u00edze, aby n\u011bkoho zast\u0159elil, jsem tak\u00e9 pachatel, kter\u00fd bude za trestn\u00fd \u010din potrest\u00e1n?“<\/span><\/p>\n

    Podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru je je\u0161t\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed jin\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00e9mu se v m\u00e9di\u00edch t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nev\u011bnuje pozornost.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Z\u00e1pad zvy\u0161uje dosah raket, kter\u00e9 pos\u00edl\u00e1 na Ukrajinu.\u00a0Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b je schv\u00e1lena dod\u00e1vka projektil\u016f pro raketomety HIMARS s doletem 150 kilometr\u016f, co\u017e je dvojn\u00e1sobek doletu munice HIMARS dosud ofici\u00e1ln\u011b dodan\u00e9 do Kyjeva.\u00a0Diskutuje se tak\u00e9 o z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed Kyjeva st\u00edha\u010dkami a \u201eraketami dlouh\u00e9ho doletu\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Zat\u00edmco na Z\u00e1pad\u011b se uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad je proti ukrajinsk\u00fdm \u00fatok\u016fm na rusk\u00e9 srdce, v Kyjev\u011b se otev\u0159en\u011b \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee cht\u011bj\u00ed ost\u0159elovat leti\u0161t\u011b, vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny, skr\u00fd\u0161e zbran\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed v t\u00fdlu Ruska, aby naru\u0161ili rusk\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Kone\u010dn\u00e1 \u010derven\u00e1 linka<\/span><\/h3>\n

    Zvr\u00e1cen\u00e1 logika jadern\u00e9ho odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee ani jedna strana nem\u016f\u017ee vyhr\u00e1t jadernou v\u00e1lku \u2013 kdo vyst\u0159el\u00ed prvn\u00ed, zem\u0159e jako druh\u00fd po nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9m proti\u00faderu.\u00a0Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm prvkem jadern\u00e9ho odstra\u0161en\u00ed je tzv. schopnost druh\u00e9ho \u00faderu, tedy schopnost reagovat na jadern\u00fd \u00fatok jadern\u00fdm proti\u00fatokem.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Z tohoto d\u016fvodu znovu cituji bod 3 v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fdch podm\u00ednek, za kter\u00fdch si Rusko vyhrazuje pr\u00e1vo pou\u017e\u00edt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b:<\/span><\/p>\n

    „Kdy\u017e nep\u0159\u00edtel za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pot\u0159ebn\u00e1 pro odvetnou akci jadern\u00fdch sil“<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    Vyvst\u00e1v\u00e1 proto d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka: Co se stane, kdy\u017e Kyjev za pou\u017eit\u00ed zbran\u00ed dlouh\u00e9ho doletu dodan\u00fdch Z\u00e1padem, a\u0165 u\u017e v\u011bdom\u011b \u010di nev\u011bdom\u011b, za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na rusk\u00e9 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 Rusko pova\u017euje za nezbytn\u00e9 pro sv\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 s\u00edly?<\/span><\/p>\n

    To by znamenalo, \u017ee Rusko se c\u00edt\u00ed v nebezpe\u010d\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty schopnosti druh\u00e9ho \u00faderu, tedy bezbrannosti proti jadern\u00e9mu \u00faderu USA.\u00a0A to by byl pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 pro rozpout\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, a\u0165 u\u017e \u00famysln\u00e9 nebo n\u00e1hodn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Rusk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Lavrov to vyj\u00e1d\u0159il takto<\/span><\/a>\u00a0:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u201eKdy\u017e Washington a spojenci NATO dodaj\u00ed Kyjevu zbran\u011b k \u00fatok\u016fm na m\u011bsta hluboko v rusk\u00e9m vnitrozem\u00ed a k obsazen\u00ed na\u0161ich \u00fastavn\u00edch \u00fazem\u00ed, nut\u00ed Moskvu k tvrd\u00fdm protiopat\u0159en\u00edm.\u00a0Ne\u0159\u00edkej pozd\u011bji, \u017ee jsme t\u011b nevarovali.“<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    Doufejme, \u017ee to pochop\u00ed i Z\u00e1pad…<\/span><\/p>\n

    Thomas R\u00f6per<\/a><\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    ___________________<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

     <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Diskuse o dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch nov\u00fdch zbran\u00ed na Ukrajinu p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eej\u00ed fakt, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u011b existuje situace, kdy to…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":511,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[4381,1652,22,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22334"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22334"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22334\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22335,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22334\/revisions\/22335"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/511"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}