{"id":21913,"date":"2023-01-30T01:04:56","date_gmt":"2023-01-30T00:04:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=21913"},"modified":"2023-01-31T06:45:55","modified_gmt":"2023-01-31T05:45:55","slug":"tankova-koalice-nato-je-eskalaci-ale-jeji-vyznam-by-se-nemel-prehanet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/01\/30\/tankova-koalice-nato-je-eskalaci-ale-jeji-vyznam-by-se-nemel-prehanet\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Tankov\u00e1 koalice NATO je eskalac\u00ed, ale jej\u00ed v\u00fdznam by se nem\u011bl p\u0159eh\u00e1n\u011bt"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Ob\u011b strany by se m\u011bly zdr\u017eet odd\u00e1vat se takzvan\u00e9mu \u201ecopiu\u201c a p\u0159estat tento tah ot\u00e1\u010det jako tah, kter\u00fd m\u011bn\u00ed hru nebo mokro, proto\u017ee to nen\u00ed ani jedno.\u00a0Je to skute\u010dn\u011b eskalace, jist\u011b, ale tak\u00e9 to nepovede k \u201enevyhnuteln\u00e9mu\u201c v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Kyjeva.\u00a0Jak ned\u00e1vno \u0159ekl rusk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd expert Michail Chodaryonok, \u201eboji\u0161t\u011b je jedin\u00fdm lakmusov\u00fdm pap\u00edrkem\u201c, kter\u00fd bude brzy ka\u017ed\u00fd sledovat v re\u00e1ln\u00e9m \u010dase.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hmatateln\u00e1 odpov\u011b\u010f na \u201enov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh\u201c<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Zem\u011b NATO se nakonec dohodly na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed koalice pro vysl\u00e1n\u00ed modern\u00edch tank\u016f na Ukrajinu po ur\u010dit\u00e9 debat\u011b mezi nimi o tomto v\u00fdvoji, kter\u00fd p\u0159edstavuje posledn\u00ed eskalaci jejich\u00a0z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky\u00a0<\/a>proti Rusku.\u00a0Vojensk\u00e9 schopnosti Kyjeva tak budou nakonec pos\u00edleny do bodu, kdy by mohla m\u00edt v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161anci prolomit linii kontroly (LOC)\u00a0, kter\u00e1 z\u016fstala\u00a0<\/a>po v\u011bt\u0161inu posledn\u00edho p\u016fl roku zamrzl\u00e1, a\u017e na n\u011bkolik v\u00fdjimek, kter\u00e9 se samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nach\u00e1zej\u00ed,\u00a0Charkovsk\u00e1 a Chersonsk\u00e1 oblast\u00a0<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto kroku je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, proto\u017ee roz\u0161i\u0159uje d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost na \u201epoliticky nekorektn\u00ed\u201c post\u0159ehy o skute\u010dn\u00e9 vojensko-strategick\u00e9 dynamice tohoto konfliktu, kterou Z\u00e1padn\u00ed mainstreamov\u00e1 m\u00e9dia (MSM) veden\u00e1 USA a\u017e doned\u00e1vna zakr\u00fdvala.\u00a0P\u0159ed polovinou ledna bylo \u201eofici\u00e1ln\u00ed vypr\u00e1v\u011bn\u00ed\u201c jedn\u00edm z \u00fadajn\u011b \u201enevyhnuteln\u00fdch\u201c v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Kyjeva, ale\u00a0ameri\u010dt\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>,\u00a0pol\u0161t\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>a dokonce i n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed\u00a0ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9\u00a0<\/a>se koordinovali, aby jej rozhodn\u011b posunuli k takov\u00e9mu, kde se nyn\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u011b ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017eky Kyjeva.<\/p>\n

Instrukt\u00e1\u017e na pozad\u00ed<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

K tomuto narativn\u00edmu zvratu do\u0161lo uprost\u0159ed ukrajinsk\u00e9\u00a0st\u00e1le v\u00edce destabilizuj\u00edc\u00ed dynamiky \u201edeep state\u201c\u00a0<\/a>charakterizovan\u00e9 nel\u00edtostn\u00fdm bojem bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch slu\u017eeb, kter\u00fd dokonce i americk\u00fd st\u00e1t \u0159\u00edzen\u00fd \u201eR\u00e1dio Svobodn\u00e1 Evropa\/R\u00e1dio Svoboda\u201c ml\u010dky uznal t\u00edm , \u017ee na\u00a0platform\u011b postavil \u0161\u00e9fa vojensk\u00e9 rozv\u011bdky\u00a0<\/a>, kter\u00fd si na to st\u011b\u017eoval.\u00a0Tato intrika zase katalyzovala Zelensk\u00e9ho\u00a0de facto dalekos\u00e1hl\u00e9 \u010distky\u00a0<\/a>od vojensk\u00fdch, region\u00e1ln\u00edch a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch \u010dinitel\u016f na za\u010d\u00e1tku t\u00fddne, co\u017e, jak se zd\u00e1, \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b upevnilo jeho moc, alespo\u0148 prozat\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Zem\u011b NATO se proto c\u00edtily dostate\u010dn\u011b pohodln\u011b, kdy\u017e vytvo\u0159ily d\u0159\u00edve popsanou koalici, o n\u00ed\u017e diskutovaly ji\u017e minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc, proto\u017ee spekulativn\u00ed oportunist\u00e9 a m\u00edrotvorci v re\u017eimu jejich zastoupen\u00ed maj\u00ed nyn\u00ed men\u0161\u00ed \u0161anci sv\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny vykompenzovat.\u00a0Pokud jde o n\u011b, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejasn\u00e9, jak velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st\u00a0p\u0159edchoz\u00ed n\u011bmecky veden\u00e9 debaty\u00a0<\/a>o tom byla up\u0159\u00edmn\u00e1 a do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry mohla b\u00fdt inscenov\u00e1na z d\u016fvod\u016f \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed, aby se pohnula pot\u0159eba ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed na tuto ot\u00e1zku.<\/p>\n

Dopl\u0148kov\u00e9 logistick\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 c\u00edle<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je v\u00fdsledek stejn\u00fd, toti\u017e \u017ee NATO eskaluje svou z\u00e1stupnou v\u00e1lku proti Rusku p\u0159es Ukrajinu vytvo\u0159en\u00edm tankov\u00e9 koalice, kter\u00e1 by se mohla velmi rychle vyvinout v koalici, kter\u00e1 brzy vy\u0161le dal\u0161\u00ed modern\u00ed zbran\u011b do Kyjeva\u00a0jako trysk\u00e1\u010de a dlouho st\u0159ely s dosahem\u00a0<\/a>.\u00a0D\u016fvodem t\u00e9to p\u0159edpov\u011bdi je, \u017ee se jasn\u011b projevilo \u201epl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed mise\u201c, \u010d\u00edm\u017e je tato protirusk\u00e1 aliance nyn\u00ed vedena k tomu, aby zajistila na m\u00edst\u011b hmatatelnou takzvanou \u201en\u00e1vratnost investic\u201c pot\u00e9, co ji\u017e dala Kyjevu\u00a0v\u00edce ne\u017e 100 miliard dolar\u016f\u00a0<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Jejich nov\u011b sestaven\u00e1 koalice tak\u00e9 prosazuje d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 logistick\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 c\u00edle vedle jejich zjevn\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f.\u00a0Pokud jde o prvn\u00ed,\u00a0pom\u00e1h\u00e1 zm\u00edrnit\u00a0zn\u00e1m\u00fd tlak na jejich vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 komplexy (MIC) t\u00edm\u00a0<\/a>,\u00a0<\/a>\u017ee zm\u011bn\u00ed povahu zbran\u00ed odes\u00edlan\u00fdch do Kyjeva m\u00edsto toho, aby riskovali dal\u0161\u00ed vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch z\u00e1sob, kter\u00e9 se ji\u017e velmi sn\u00ed\u017eily.\u00a0Co se t\u00fd\u010de druh\u00e9ho, toto takzvan\u00e9 \u201esd\u00edlen\u00ed b\u0159emene\u201c posiluje\u00a0ned\u00e1vno znovu potvrzenou hegemonii USA\u00a0<\/a>nad Evropou.<\/p>\n

Zleh\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto v\u00fdvoje<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Abychom se dostali k vysv\u011btlen\u00ed, pro\u010d v\u00fdznam t\u00e9to eskalace nep\u0159eh\u00e1n\u011bt, je t\u0159eba pozorovatel\u016fm nejprve p\u0159ipomenout, \u017ee k n\u00ed doch\u00e1z\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b v dob\u011b, kdy je po\u00a0rusk\u00e9m osvobozen\u00ed Soledaru Kyjev postupn\u011b vytla\u010dov\u00e1n z Donbasu\u00a0<\/a>.\u00a0Pozemn\u00ed vojensko-strategick\u00e1 dynamika se kone\u010dn\u011b za\u010dala p\u0159esouvat z p\u0159edchoz\u00ed slep\u00e9 uli\u010dky, kter\u00e1 do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry charakterizovala uplynul\u00fd p\u016flrok, \u200b\u200ba ve prosp\u011bch Ruska, proto nal\u00e9havost, s jakou NATO sestavovalo svou tankovou koalici.<\/p>\n

Po pravd\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, teoreticky se to mohlo st\u00e1t na za\u010d\u00e1tku rusk\u00e9\u00a0speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace , ale\u00a0<\/a>Zlat\u00e1\u00a0<\/a>miliarda\u00a0<\/a>Z\u00e1padu veden\u00e1 USA\u00a0nebyla\u00a0p\u0159ipravena na kinetickou reakci Moskvy\u00a0<\/a>na\u00a0p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed \u010derven\u00fdch lini\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti na Ukrajin\u011b\u00a0<\/a>a tak\u00e9 si myslela, \u017ee by mohla levn\u011b ochromit\u00a0 Kreml.\u00a0Proto b\u011bhem minul\u00e9ho roku odeslali ze sv\u00fdch z\u00e1sob zastaral\u00e9 vybaven\u00ed, m\u00edsto aby okam\u017eit\u011b up\u0159ednostnili modern\u00ed zbran\u011b, jako jsou tanky, kter\u00e9 se nyn\u00ed chystaj\u00ed poslat.<\/p>\n

D\u016fvod, pro\u010d nyn\u00ed pos\u00edlaj\u00ed mnohem dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed a modern\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vybaven\u00ed, je ten, \u017ee Rusko zni\u010dilo v\u0161echny ty zastaral\u00e9 zbran\u011b, kter\u00e9 tam u\u017e byly odesl\u00e1ny.\u00a0Toto pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed potvrzuje, jak impozantn\u00ed jsou jej\u00ed ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly, \u017ee se jim poda\u0159ilo zbavit se tak velk\u00e9ho pod\u00edlu z\u00e1sob NATO za m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e cel\u00fd rok, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se jim a\u017e dosud poda\u0159ilo z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti zmrazit LOC.\u00a0Proto\u017ee p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed pro tuto protiruskou alianci politicky nep\u0159ipad\u00e1 v \u00favahu, rozhodli se eskalovat.<\/p>\n

Nov\u00fd model proxy v\u00e1lky NATO<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Za \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed nemohou de facto uznat skute\u010dn\u00e9 zisky Ruska v b\u00fdval\u00fdch v\u00fdchodn\u00edch a ji\u017en\u00edch regionech Ukrajiny, proto\u017ee to by uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee tato euroasijsk\u00e1 velmoc byla schopna \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b odolat bezprecedentn\u00edmu z\u00e1stupn\u00e9mu v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9mu n\u00e1poru NATO proti n\u00ed.\u00a0Politick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky takov\u00e9ho po\u010d\u00edn\u00e1n\u00ed by odhalily vojensk\u00e1 omezen\u00ed tohoto\u00a0nov\u00e9ho bloku studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky\u00a0<\/a>, co\u017e by tak sn\u00ed\u017eilo \u0161ance, \u017ee budou moci v budoucnu exportovat sv\u016fj nov\u00fd model z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky jinam.<\/p>\n

V\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd model, kter\u00fd prosazovali v pr\u016fb\u011bhu sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho konfliktu, je nov\u00fd v tom smyslu, jak je zam\u00fd\u0161len k eskalaci region\u00e1ln\u00edch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch dilemat, aby v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku naklonil rovnov\u00e1hu ve prosp\u011bch NATO.\u00a0Abychom to shrnuli, vojensk\u00e9 schopnosti men\u0161\u00edho st\u00e1tu se rychle buduj\u00ed s podporou tohoto bloku, aby se dostal do pozice, kdy nakonec m\u016f\u017ee vyd\u00edrat sv\u00e9ho v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho souseda, na\u010de\u017e je c\u00edlov\u00fd st\u00e1t nucen bu\u010f kapitulovat, nebo podniknout kinetickou p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed akci k neutralizaci hrozby.<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed by vedl k tomu, \u017ee by NATO nevyhnuteln\u011b donutilo tento v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sousedn\u00ed st\u00e1t k s\u00e9rii nikdy nekon\u010d\u00edc\u00edch jednostrann\u00fdch \u00fastupk\u016f, jejich\u017e c\u00edlem je v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku neutralizovat jeho strategickou autonomii, a tak jej p\u0159em\u011bnit na vazalsk\u00fd st\u00e1t.\u00a0Druh\u00e1 by mezit\u00edm okam\u017eit\u011b p\u0159im\u011bla NATO k tomu, aby p\u0159isp\u011bchalo na podporu sv\u00e9ho z\u00e1stupce stejn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, jako to ud\u011blalo pr\u00e1v\u011b na Ukrajin\u011b, aby donekone\u010dna udr\u017eovalo z\u00e1stupnou v\u00e1lku zam\u011b\u0159enou na nahlod\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed tohoto v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho sousedn\u00edho st\u00e1tu soub\u011b\u017en\u011b s v\u00fdrobou z\u00e1minek pro sankce.<\/p>\n

Mocn\u00fd z\u00e1sah Ruska do pl\u00e1n\u016f z\u00e1stupc\u016f NATO<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko je sou\u010dasn\u00fdm c\u00edlem nov\u00e9ho modelu z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky NATO, ale tak\u00e9 se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee\u00a0\u010c\u00edna\u00a0<\/a>a\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1n\u00a0<\/a>se tak\u00e9 \u010dasem dostanou do hled\u00e1\u010dku dokonalosti tohoto modelu (nebo alespo\u0148 jeho vylep\u0161en\u00ed) v pr\u016fb\u011bhu ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu, pokud se nerozhodnou kapitulovat jako prvn\u00ed.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee pokud bude stejn\u00fd model zdiskreditov\u00e1n na Ukrajin\u011b, kdy\u017e Rusko prok\u00e1\u017ee, \u017ee region\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1stupce NATO nem\u016f\u017ee s jejich podporou br\u00e1nit \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 si n\u00e1rokuje, pak by se ostatn\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i mohli zdr\u00e1hat replikovat v\u00e1le\u010dnou roli Kyjeva.<\/p>\n

Koneckonc\u016f, vid\u011bli by, \u017ee mohou hmatateln\u011b ztratit pom\u011brn\u011b hodn\u011b t\u00edm, \u017ee se p\u0159iklon\u00ed k region\u00e1ln\u00edm z\u00e1stupn\u00fdm v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm spiknut\u00edm tohoto bloku, m\u00edsto toho, aby ohromn\u011b vyhr\u00e1li, jak d\u0159\u00edve NATO tvrdilo, \u017ee Ukrajina \u201enevyhnuteln\u011b\u201c poroste, dokud jej\u00ed ameri\u010dt\u00ed a pol\u0161t\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 rozhodn\u011b neobr\u00e1t\u00ed \u201eofici\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh\u201c o t\u00e9to proxy v\u00e1lce.\u00a0Krom\u011b toho dal\u0161\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1stupci ji\u017e vid\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko zni\u010dilo zastaral\u00e9 z\u00e1soby NATO, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e byly odesl\u00e1ny na Ukrajinu, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee blok m\u00e1 nyn\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b na dal\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1stupce.<\/p>\n

Jak to tak je, nov\u00fd model z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky NATO ji\u017e utrp\u011bl silnou r\u00e1nu, proto\u017ee Rusko \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b vy\u010derpalo jejich zastaral\u00e9 z\u00e1soby, co\u017e vedlo k tomu, \u017ee tento blok bude m\u00edt v brzk\u00e9 dob\u011b mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b co d\u00e1t ostatn\u00edm, dokud jeho MIC nedopln\u00ed sv\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty, co\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee bude trvat alespo\u0148 n\u011bkolik let.\u00a0Nelze tedy pova\u017eovat za samoz\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee jej\u00ed vysl\u00e1n\u00ed modern\u011bj\u0161\u00edch zbran\u00ed bude m\u00edt na zemi velk\u00fd v\u00fdznam, proto\u017ee Rusko je m\u016f\u017ee tak\u00e9 velmi dob\u0159e zni\u010dit.<\/p>\n

Pronikav\u00fd pohled od Michaila Chodaryonoka<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto bod\u011b je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 odk\u00e1zat na poznatky, kter\u00e9 ned\u00e1vno sd\u00edlel Michail Chodaryonok ve sv\u00e9\u00a0nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed anal\u00fdze pro RT\u00a0<\/a>.\u00a0Tento vojensk\u00fd expert p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u011b tvrdil, \u017ee po\u010det tank\u016f, kter\u00e9 budou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b odesl\u00e1ny na Ukrajinu, bude nedostate\u010dn\u00fd k tomu, aby v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zm\u011bnil dynamiku pod\u00e9l LOC, i kdy\u017e tak\u00e9 uznal, \u017ee \u201eboji\u0161t\u011b je jedin\u00fdm lakmusov\u00fdm pap\u00edrkem pro v\u00fdhody a nev\u00fdhody jak\u00e9hokoli druh zbran\u011b nebo vojensk\u00e9ho vybaven\u00ed\u201c.<\/p>\n

V obou bodech m\u00e1 pravdu, i kdy\u017e \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed strategick\u00fd pohled, kter\u00fd se doposud v t\u00e9to anal\u00fdze sd\u00edlel, dod\u00e1v\u00e1 Chodaryonokovu z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee v\u00fdznam t\u00e9to posledn\u00ed eskalace by nem\u011bl b\u00fdt p\u0159eh\u00e1n\u011bn, proto\u017ee Rusko a\u017e do tohoto bodu dok\u00e1zalo, \u017ee takov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj dok\u00e1\u017ee zvl\u00e1dnout.\u00a0Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, zaveden\u00ed modern\u011bj\u0161\u00edch zbran\u00ed do t\u00e9to proxy v\u00e1lky je rozhodn\u011b nov\u00fdm faktorem, kter\u00fd by se m\u011bl br\u00e1t v\u00e1\u017en\u011b, ale bylo by to smyslupln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, kdyby se to stalo p\u0159ed rokem ne\u017e nyn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Posledn\u00ed \u0161ance Kyjeva<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto v\u00fdvoje nazna\u010duje, \u017ee se k n\u011bmu uchyluje jako k zoufal\u00e9mu posledn\u00edmu \u00fasil\u00ed, aby se alespo\u0148 zajistilo, \u017ee LOC z\u016fstane zmrazen\u00e9 pot\u00e9, co se vojensko-strategick\u00e1 dynamika kone\u010dn\u011b za\u010dala pohybovat ve prosp\u011bch Ruska, aby postupn\u011b dos\u00e1hlo hmatateln\u00e9ho pokroku v Donbasu po Soledarov\u011b osvobozen\u00ed.\u00a0NATO douf\u00e1, \u017ee to zm\u011bn\u00ed hru t\u00edm, \u017ee umo\u017en\u00ed Kyjevu zvr\u00e1tit tento nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed trend, a tak z\u00edskat zp\u011bt \u010d\u00e1st \u00fazem\u00ed, na kter\u00e9 si n\u00e1rokuje, ale tento v\u00fdsledek nelze pova\u017eovat za samoz\u0159ejm\u00fd, jak bylo vysv\u011btleno.<\/p>\n

Pokud se vysl\u00e1n\u00ed modern\u011bj\u0161\u00edch tank\u016f na Ukrajinu nepoda\u0159\u00ed dos\u00e1hnout minim\u00e1ln\u00edho c\u00edle NATO, kter\u00fdm je alespo\u0148 zmrazen\u00ed LOC, pak nelze vylou\u010dit, \u017ee by brzy mohlo vyslat modern\u011bj\u0161\u00ed trysk\u00e1\u010de a rakety dlouh\u00e9ho doletu p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 z paniky na to, aby zachovalo pov\u011bst bloku, kter\u00e1 by riskovala zni\u010den\u00ed rusk\u00fdmi zisky.\u00a0Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00e9to aliance pod veden\u00edm Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f by bylo ot\u0159eseno, pokud by Moskva pokra\u010dovala v hmatateln\u00e9m pokroku na m\u00edst\u011b navzdory t\u011bm modern\u011bj\u0161\u00edm tank\u016fm, kter\u00e9 blok poslal na Ukrajinu.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9 my\u0161lenky<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Nejhor\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em je, \u017ee by NATO mohlo form\u00e1ln\u011b zas\u00e1hnout do konfliktu (a\u0165 u\u017e multilater\u00e1ln\u011b, nebo\u00a0jen p\u0159es Polsko\u00a0<\/a>), aby vytvo\u0159ilo jasnou \u010dervenou linii v p\u00edsku n\u011bkde uvnit\u0159 zbytku zapadl\u00e9 Ukrajiny, pokud by jeho modern\u011bj\u0161\u00ed tanky, trysk\u00e1\u010de a dlouh\u00e9 st\u0159ely dosahu, ale to v\u0161echno nezastav\u00ed rusk\u00fd parn\u00ed v\u00e1lec.\u00a0Je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 brzy na sebev\u011bdom\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee se tyto ud\u00e1losti vyvinou, ale stejn\u011b tak je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 brzy na to, abychom je tak\u00e9 okam\u017eit\u011b zavrhli, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e vezmeme v \u00favahu vojensk\u00e9, politick\u00e9, m\u011bkk\u00e9 s\u00edly a strategick\u00e9 kalkulace NATO.<\/p>\n

Jak ji\u017e n\u00e1zev t\u00e9to anal\u00fdzy deklaroval, protirusk\u00e1 tankov\u00e1 koalice je tedy skute\u010dn\u011b eskalac\u00ed, ale jej\u00ed v\u00fdznam by se tak\u00e9 nem\u011bl p\u0159eh\u00e1n\u011bt.\u00a0Ob\u011b strany by se m\u011bly zdr\u017eet odd\u00e1vat se takzvan\u00e9mu \u201e\u00a0copiu\u00a0<\/a>\u201c a p\u0159estat tento tah ot\u00e1\u010det jako tah, kter\u00fd m\u011bn\u00ed hru nebo mokro, proto\u017ee to nen\u00ed ani jedno.\u00a0Je to skute\u010dn\u011b eskalace, jist\u011b, ale tak\u00e9 to nepovede k \u201enevyhnuteln\u00e9mu\u201c v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Kyjeva.\u00a0Jak \u0159ekl Chodaryonok, \u201eboji\u0161t\u011b je jedin\u00fdm lakmusov\u00fdm pap\u00edrkem\u201c, kter\u00fd bude brzy ka\u017ed\u00fd sledovat v re\u00e1ln\u00e9m \u010dase.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko<\/a><\/em><\/strong> , <\/em>je americk\u00fd politolog s\u00eddl\u00edc\u00ed v Moskv\u011b, kter\u00fd se specializuje na americkou strategii v Africe a Eurasii, \u010d\u00ednskou iniciativu Belt and Road, ruskou geopolitickou rovnov\u00e1hu a hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lku.<\/em><\/p>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/p>\n

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Ob\u011b strany by se m\u011bly zdr\u017eet odd\u00e1vat se takzvan\u00e9mu \u201ecopiu\u201c a p\u0159estat tento tah ot\u00e1\u010det…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":21914,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,39,22,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21913"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21913"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21913\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21914"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21913"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21913"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21913"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}