{"id":21457,"date":"2023-01-20T01:04:54","date_gmt":"2023-01-20T00:04:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=21457"},"modified":"2023-01-19T11:28:33","modified_gmt":"2023-01-19T10:28:33","slug":"expert-valka-o-tchaj-wan-by-byla-katastrofalnejsi-nez-konflikt-na-ukrajine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/01\/20\/expert-valka-o-tchaj-wan-by-byla-katastrofalnejsi-nez-konflikt-na-ukrajine\/","title":{"rendered":"Expert: v\u00e1lka o Tchaj-wan by byla katastrof\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e konflikt na Ukrajin\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00e1lky kolem Tchaj-wanu to bude m\u00edt katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky, a to i pro Evropu, \u0159ekl \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9mu televizn\u00edmu kan\u00e1lu SRF expert z German Marshall Fund*.\u00a0Ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky takov\u00e9ho konfliktu budou podle Bonnie Glaser mnohem z\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e d\u016fsledky v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b, proto\u017ee z ekonomick\u00e9ho hlediska jsou \u010c\u00edna a Tchaj-wan pro Z\u00e1pad d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e Rusko a Ukrajina.\u00a0Proto je nyn\u00ed hlavn\u00edm \u00fakolem vyhnout se velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Mo\u017en\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 invaze na Tchaj-wan je st\u00e1l\u00fdm t\u00e9matem ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech a je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii, poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00fd televizn\u00ed kan\u00e1l SRF.\u00a0<em>\u201eVl\u00e1dy a ve\u0159ejnost v Evrop\u011b neberou nebezpe\u010d\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u011b v\u00e1\u017en\u011b,<\/em>\u00a0\u201c \u0159ekla Bonnie Glaser, kter\u00e1 vede program pro Asii v think-tanku German Marshall Fund* a rad\u00ed vl\u00e1d\u011b USA.<\/p>\n<p><em>\u201eV\u00e1lka pro a proti Tchaj-wanu by byla katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed i pro Evropu.\u00a0Ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky budou mnohem z\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e d\u016fsledky v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b, proto\u017ee \u010c\u00edna a Tchaj-wan jsou ekonomicky mnohem d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e Rusko a Ukrajina,<\/em>\u00a0\u201c\u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Glaser.\u00a0Je tak\u00e9 nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee se \u010c\u00edna po Tchaj-wanu zastav\u00ed, ale bude nad\u00e1le roz\u0161i\u0159ovat svou dominanci v Asii.<\/p>\n<p>Glaser je p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da si nem\u016f\u017ee dovolit ustoupit v ot\u00e1zce Tchaj-wanu, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e u\u017e l\u00e9ta \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 vlastn\u00edmu obyvatelstvu, \u017ee mal\u00fd sousedn\u00ed st\u00e1t by m\u011bl b\u00fdt napaden.\u00a0Hlava st\u00e1tu Si \u0164in-pching po\u017eaduje, aby jeho arm\u00e1da byla p\u0159ipravena na invazi v roce 2027, pokra\u010duje SRF.<\/p>\n<p><em>\u201eZat\u00edm nebylo u\u010din\u011bno \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 politick\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed o tom, zda se tak stane a kdy,\u201c<\/em>\u00a0zd\u016fraz\u0148uje Glaser.\u00a0Pro Peking v\u0161ak existuj\u00ed \u201e\u010derven\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1ry\u201c: pokud Tchaj-wan vyhl\u00e1s\u00ed svou nez\u00e1vislost, pokud USA vstoup\u00ed do form\u00e1ln\u00ed obrann\u00e9 aliance s Tchaj-wanem, nebo pokud Tchaj-wan z\u00edsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b.<\/p>\n<p>Pak \u010c\u00edna odpov\u00ed rychlou a komplexn\u00ed invaz\u00ed.\u00a0Podle experta takov\u00e1 invaze nebude bez rizika:\u00a0<em>&#8222;Pokud invaze sel\u017ee, bude v ohro\u017een\u00ed re\u017eim hlavy st\u00e1tu Si a komunistick\u00e9 strany.&#8220;\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Bude m\u00edt ale Tchaj-wan proti velmoci \u010c\u00edn\u011b sebemen\u0161\u00ed \u0161anci?\u00a0Ano, \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Glaser \u2013 alespo\u0148 na n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed nebo dokonce t\u00fddn\u016f.\u00a0Tchaj-wan zna\u010dn\u011b pos\u00edlil svou obranu.\u00a0Nav\u00edc\u00a0<em>\u201eAmeri\u010dan\u00e9 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b p\u0159isp\u011bchaj\u00ed na pomoc Tchaj-wanu \u2013 pokud Tchaj-pej nevyprovokuje \u010d\u00ednskou invazi prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm o suverenit\u011b,\u201c<\/em>\u00a0domn\u00edv\u00e1 se americk\u00fd expert.<\/p>\n<p>V s\u00e1zce bude tak\u00e9 d\u016fv\u011bra Washingtonu ve v\u0161echny sv\u00e9 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed spojence v asijsko-pacifick\u00e9m regionu: Japonsko, Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreu, Austr\u00e1lii nebo Nov\u00fd Z\u00e9land.\u00a0USA si nemohly dovolit nezas\u00e1hnout \u2013 jinak by p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea a Japonsko pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b z\u00edskaly jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, \u0159ekl Glaser.<\/p>\n<p>Jsou v\u0161ak USA p\u0159ipraveny na p\u0159\u00edmou konfrontaci s \u010c\u00ednou?\u00a0<em>&#8222;V tuto chv\u00edli pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ne,&#8220;<\/em>\u00a0domn\u00edv\u00e1 se odborn\u00edk.\u00a0P\u0159esto\u017ee prezident Obama ji\u017e prohl\u00e1sil Asii za bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed prioritu, p\u0159\u00edtomnost USA v z\u00e1padn\u00edm Pacifiku je zalo\u017eena p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na zraniteln\u00fdch z\u00e1kladn\u00e1ch, jako je Okinawa, Japonsko, Guam a Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea.\u00a0Po l\u00e9ta byla \u010c\u00edna v tomto regionu vyzbrojena siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e USA.\u00a0Postupn\u011b se ale pozice Ameri\u010dan\u016f zlep\u0161ovala a investice rostly a st\u00e1valy se rozumn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi.<\/p>\n<p>Podle Glasera je prioritou vyhnout se velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii: Tchaj-wan ani USA by nem\u011bly p\u0159ekro\u010dit \u010dervenou linii \u010c\u00edny.\u00a0Z\u00e1pad v\u0161ak mus\u00ed Tchaj-wan siln\u011b podporovat \u2013 v obrann\u00e9m \u00fasil\u00ed, v obchodn\u00edch dohod\u00e1ch, v diplomatick\u00e9 ar\u00e9n\u011b a v p\u0159\u00edtomnosti jednotek v mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vod\u00e1ch regionu.<\/p>\n<p>Glaser je skeptick\u00fd ohledn\u011b parlamentn\u00edch n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bv na Tchaj-wanu.\u00a0Takovou n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvu pl\u00e1nuje na \u00fanor i \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e1 delegace.\u00a0V roce 2022 expert doporu\u010dil Nancy Pelosiov\u00e9, p\u0159edsedkyni Sn\u011bmovny reprezentant\u016f USA, aby n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvu zru\u0161ila.\u00a0Tato cesta p\u0159inesla Tchaj-wanu v\u00edce \u0161kody ne\u017e u\u017eitku, proto\u017ee ji \u010c\u00edna vyu\u017eila jako z\u00e1minku pro dal\u0161\u00ed obt\u011b\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed a v\u00fdhru\u017en\u00e1 gesta.\u00a0Tchaj-pej si mo\u017en\u00e1 takov\u00e9 n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy p\u0159eje, ale \u010dasto nestoj\u00ed za to je podniknout, \u0159ekla americk\u00e1 u\u010denec Bonnie Glazer \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9 televizi SRF.<\/p>\n<p><em>* N\u011bmeck\u00fd Marshall\u016fv fond Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f americk\u00fdch je organizac\u00ed, jej\u00ed\u017e \u010dinnost je rozhodnut\u00edm gener\u00e1ln\u00ed prokuratury ze dne 20.3.2018 uzn\u00e1na za ne\u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed na \u00fazem\u00ed Rusk\u00e9 federace.<\/p>\n<p><\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-19187 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO-300x36.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1233\" height=\"148\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO-300x36.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/1-PRO.jpg 699w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1233px) 100vw, 1233px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00e1lky kolem Tchaj-wanu to bude m\u00edt katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky, a to i pro Evropu,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":20367,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[30,2173,333,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21457"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21457"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21457\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20367"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}