{"id":20981,"date":"2023-01-10T01:21:20","date_gmt":"2023-01-10T00:21:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=20981"},"modified":"2023-01-09T18:50:06","modified_gmt":"2023-01-09T17:50:06","slug":"lubomir-man-tato-prezidentska-volba-je-cinknuta-uz-od-ledna-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/01\/10\/lubomir-man-tato-prezidentska-volba-je-cinknuta-uz-od-ledna-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Lubom\u00edr Man: Tato prezidentsk\u00e1 volba je cinknut\u00e1 u\u017e od ledna 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Cinknut\u00e1? A jak, pros\u00edm v\u00e1s?<\/p>\n

D\u00e1m p\u0159\u00edklad ze v\u010derej\u0161ka, kdy mi p\u0159\u00edtel J.M. \u0159ekl: \u201eBez p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161len\u00ed bych volil Ba\u0161tu. Ale jak ukazuj\u00ed pr\u016fzkumy, byl by to mo\u017en\u00e1 ztracen\u00fd hlas. A tak to d\u00e1m men\u0161\u00edmu zlu, kter\u00fdm je Babi\u0161\u201c.<\/p>\n

Jasn\u00e9? M\u016fj p\u0159\u00edtel by volil jinak, kdyby se pr\u016fzkumy p\u0159ed volbami nezve\u0159ej\u0148ovaly a hlavn\u011b ani nekonaly. Volil by Ba\u0161tu, ale vol\u00ed Babi\u0161e a c\u00edt\u00ed, \u017ee je k t\u00e9to volb\u011b dotla\u010den nikoli svou svobodnou v\u016fli, ale strategickou \u00favahou. Tak\u017ee v\u00ed, \u017ee jeho leto\u0161n\u00ed prezidentsk\u00e1 volba tak docela svobodn\u00e1 nebude. A je mu to l\u00edto, stejn\u011b jako je to l\u00edto i mn\u011b a statis\u00edc\u016fm na\u0161ich lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed p\u00e1r dn\u00ed p\u0159ed volbami \u0159e\u0161\u00ed podobn\u00e9 bolestiv\u00e9 dilema.<\/p>\n

A zbyte\u010dn\u011b. Anebo jde o z\u00e1m\u011br t\u011bch nejv\u00fd\u0161e postaven\u00fdch vyu\u017e\u00edt v\u00fdzkumy volebn\u00edch preferenc\u00ed lid\u00ed ve prosp\u011bch jejich favorit\u016f? A to bez ohledu na to, jak touto prax\u00ed svobodn\u00e9 rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed lid\u00ed a t\u00edm i demokratick\u00fd princip utrp\u00ed?<\/p>\n

V\u0161imn\u011bme si, jak agentury pro v\u00fdzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed zas\u00e1hly do volebn\u00ed prezidentsk\u00e9 kampan\u011b u n\u00e1s. U\u017e v lednu lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku, jako by vedena touhou uk\u00e1zat na\u0161im nevidom\u00fdm lidem cestu, zve\u0159ejnila je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed pod\u00e1n\u00edm prezidentsk\u00fdch kandidatur p\u0159edn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 agentura Kantar v\u00fdsledky sv\u00e9ho pr\u016fzkumu, proveden\u00e9ho od 17. do 19. ledna loni, a to na vzorku pouh\u00fdch 800 dot\u00e1zan\u00fdch.<\/p>\n

A jak to tehdy dopadlo? Nu\u017ee zhruba tak, jak to vypad\u00e1 dnes. Prvn\u00ed byl Babi\u0161, druh\u00fd Pavel, t\u0159et\u00ed Fischer, 4. N\u011bmcov\u00e1 a p\u00e1t\u00e1 Nerudov\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Lid\u00e9 tedy na cestu, kterou jim uk\u00e1zala agentura\u00a0 Kantar, vstoupili a disciplinovan\u011b po n\u00ed kr\u00e1\u010deli a\u017e do listopadu t\u00e9ho\u017e roku, kdy jin\u00e1 agentura, a to Data Collect, a to jako prvn\u00ed u\u017e po pod\u00e1n\u00ed prezidentsk\u00fdch kandidatur a na vzorku 1238 osob, zjistila toto po\u0159ad\u00ed kandid\u00e1t\u016f: Prvn\u00ed Pavel, druh\u00fd Babi\u0161, t\u0159et\u00ed Nerudov\u00e1, \u010dtvrt\u00fd\u00a0 Fischer, p\u00e1t\u00fd St\u0159edula. Ov\u0161em s tou odchylkou od pr\u016fzkumu prvn\u00edho, proveden\u00e9ho v lednu agenturou Kantar, \u017ee lid\u00e9 u\u017e v\u011bd\u011bli, kdo se vol\u00ed nejv\u00edc, tak\u017ee odstup prvn\u00ed trojice od pelotonu jejich pron\u00e1sledovatel\u016f se zna\u010dn\u011b prot\u00e1hl.<\/p>\n

A prot\u00e1hne se je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edc p\u0159i skute\u010dn\u00e9 volb\u011b, kter\u00e1 n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1 o v\u00edkendu. Ten odstup bude ov\u0161em dal\u0161\u00ed na\u0161\u00ed demokratickou prohrou, stejn\u011b jako prohrou m\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edtele a prohrou mou i va\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Kter\u00e9 ov\u0161em p\u0159i f\u00e9rov\u00e9m a demokratick\u00e9m kl\u00e1n\u00ed,\u00a0 tzn. bez \u00fa\u010dasti agentur, zji\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc n\u00e1lady voli\u010d\u016f, ale v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b t\u00e9\u017e ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch jejich kone\u010dn\u00e9 rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed, v\u016fbec nemuselo b\u00fdt.<\/p>\n

Lubom\u00edr Man<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cinknut\u00e1? A jak, pros\u00edm v\u00e1s? D\u00e1m p\u0159\u00edklad ze v\u010derej\u0161ka, kdy mi p\u0159\u00edtel J.M. \u0159ekl: \u201eBez…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":581,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[4221,4068,27,4220],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20981"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20981"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20981\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/581"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20981"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20981"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20981"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}