{"id":20461,"date":"2022-12-30T01:00:42","date_gmt":"2022-12-30T00:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=20461"},"modified":"2022-12-29T17:26:26","modified_gmt":"2022-12-29T16:26:26","slug":"proc-pristi-desetileti-nebude-jako-poslednich-40-let","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/12\/30\/proc-pristi-desetileti-nebude-jako-poslednich-40-let\/","title":{"rendered":"Pro\u010d p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed desetilet\u00ed nebude jako posledn\u00edch 40 let"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Obecn\u00fdm p\u0159edpokladem je, \u017ee status quo bude pokra\u010dovat jako d\u0159\u00edve.\u00a0To je nejen nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, ale i nemo\u017en\u00e9, pokud se sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed celkov\u00e1 vyroben\u00e1 a spot\u0159ebovan\u00e1 energie.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Korespondent CA poskytl tento zasv\u011bcen\u00fd rozhovor s ekonomick\u00fdm strat\u00e9gem a historikem Russellem Napierem: \u201eUvid\u00edme n\u00e1vratnost kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch investic ve velk\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle Napiera bylo 40let\u00e9 obdob\u00ed od roku 1980 do roku 2020 ovl\u00e1d\u00e1no centr\u00e1ln\u00edmi bankami (m\u011bnov\u00e1 politika) a trhy (spole\u010dnosti usiluj\u00edc\u00ed o maximalizaci zisku).<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto s\u00edly podn\u011bcovaly vzestup globalizace (maximalizace zisk\u016f arbitr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f na pracovn\u00ed s\u00edlu a v\u00fdrobu v zahrani\u010d\u00ed p\u0159em\u00edst\u011bn\u00edm v\u00fdroby) a financializace (obrovsk\u00e1 expanze dluhu a p\u00e1kov\u00e9ho efektu p\u0159i udr\u017een\u00ed n\u00edzk\u00e9 dluhov\u00e9 slu\u017eby prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm neust\u00e1l\u00e9ho sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb).<\/span><\/p>\n

Druh\u00fdm efektem v\u00fdsledn\u00e9 hyperglobalizace a hyperfinancov\u00e1n\u00ed byla hyperz\u00e1vislost na geopolitick\u00fdch konkurentech a tak\u00e9 na m\u011bnov\u00fdch intervenc\u00edch a bublin\u00e1ch \u00fav\u011br\u016f\/aktiv na podporu spot\u0159eby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ani jedno nebylo udr\u017eiteln\u00e9.\u00a0T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u00fapln\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost na geopolitick\u00fdch rivalech ve slu\u017eb\u00e1ch zisk\u016f soukrom\u00e9ho sektoru vedla k existen\u010dn\u00edm zranitelnostem v n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti, kter\u00e9 je nyn\u00ed t\u0159eba napravit offshoringem kritick\u00fdch v\u00fdrobn\u00edch sektor\u016f do zahrani\u010d\u00ed (reshoring\/homeshoring\/friendshoring).<\/span><\/p>\n

Trh, kter\u00e9mu dominuj\u00ed v\u00fdhradn\u011b pob\u00eddky k maximalizaci zisk\u016f v\u0161emi nezbytn\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky, vytvo\u0159il tuto zranitelnost.\u00a0Nen\u00ed schopen je opravit.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u0161echny tyto dynamiky jsem do hloubky popsal ve sv\u00e9 knize Velk\u00e1 (revolu\u010dn\u00ed) strategie pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, vydan\u00e9 \u010dty\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Napier vid\u00ed vl\u00e1dy, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky, jako prim\u00e1rn\u00ed s\u00edlu p\u0159i vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed \u00fav\u011br\u016f a \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed politik\/pob\u00eddek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vysv\u011btluje, \u017ee vl\u00e1dy nejsou z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank\u00e1ch, aby vytv\u00e1\u0159ely pen\u00edze nebo \u00fav\u011bry, ani na vyd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f, kter\u00e9 si investo\u0159i mohou koupit.\u00a0Vl\u00e1dy ru\u010d\u00ed za \u00fav\u011bry komer\u010dn\u00edch bank vyd\u00e1van\u00e9 soukrom\u00fdmi bankami a roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00ed \u00fav\u011bry bez zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto z\u00e1ruky zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed \u00fav\u011bry komer\u010dn\u00edch bank poskytnut\u00e9 v souladu s vl\u00e1dn\u00ed politikou a c\u00edli.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud dlu\u017en\u00edk nepln\u00ed sv\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky, hrad\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty st\u00e1t, aby byl v\u011b\u0159iteli kompenzov\u00e1n.\u00a0Jedn\u00e1 se o bezrizikov\u00e9 p\u016fj\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed pro banky a neust\u00e1le roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fav\u011bry mimo vl\u00e1dn\u00ed rozvahu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Napier tomu \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 \u201epolitizace \u00fav\u011bru\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Napier vysv\u011btluje, pro\u010d se inflace bude v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch letech dr\u017eet v rozmez\u00ed 4 a\u017e 6 %: Inflace je jedin\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, jak sn\u00ed\u017eit dluhovou z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e, kter\u00e1 celosv\u011btov\u011b dos\u00e1hla 300 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f a v mnoha zem\u00edch kolem 250 % HDP.\u00a0(Toto je sou\u010det dluhu vl\u00e1dy a soukrom\u00e9ho sektoru.)<\/span><\/p>\n

Napier tomu \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 \u201efinan\u010dn\u00ed represe\u201c, proto\u017ee inflace vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v\u00fdnosy dluhopis\u016f p\u0159ipravuje st\u0159adatele a zv\u00fdhod\u0148uje dlu\u017en\u00edky, jejich\u017e p\u0159\u00edjmy rostou s inflac\u00ed, zat\u00edmco jejich dluhov\u00e9 slu\u017eby z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed napjat\u00e9.\u00a0(Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b to p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 p\u016fj\u010dky s pevnou sazbou.)<\/span><\/p>\n

Obnov\u00ed tak\u00e9 kupn\u00ed s\u00edlu mlad\u0161\u00edch pracovn\u00edk\u016f, proto\u017ee mzdy rostou na \u00fakor star\u0161\u00edch (a bohat\u0161\u00edch) generac\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud vl\u00e1dy p\u0159evezmou kontrolu nad investicemi a tvorbou \u00fav\u011br\u016f, \u201epovede to k obrovsk\u00e9mu rozmachu homeshoringu nebo friendshoringu, masivn\u00edm kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdm investic\u00edm do reindustrializace na\u0161ich vlastn\u00edch ekonomik\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vl\u00e1dy budou muset vytvo\u0159it dostatek \u00fav\u011br\u016f na financov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto masivn\u00edch kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch investic (zn\u00e1m\u00fdch jako CapEx, kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9 v\u00fddaje) a na udr\u017een\u00ed spot\u0159eby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Napier uv\u00e1d\u00ed obdob\u00ed od roku 1946 do roku 1979 jako p\u0159\u00edklad vl\u00e1dy, kter\u00e1 \u0159\u00eddila ekonomiku sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky, kter\u00e9 \u0159\u00eddily ekonomiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

To v\u0161e d\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl, ale Napier p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed t\u0159i kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 zm\u011bny:<\/strong><\/p>\n

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  • Energetick\u00fd \u00fates, proto\u017ee produkce uhlovod\u00edk\u016f kles\u00e1 rychleji, ne\u017e se nov\u00e9 vrty mohou objevit a nahradit je.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Demografick\u00fd \u00fates, proto\u017ee pracovn\u00ed s\u00edla ub\u00fdv\u00e1 a kohorta d\u016fchodc\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed maj\u00ed b\u00fdt obslou\u017eeni, roste.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Neschopnost financovat masivn\u00ed nov\u00e9 investice a v\u00fddaje na infrastrukturu, podporovat rostouc\u00ed kohortu d\u016fchodc\u016f a utv\u00e1\u0159et spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje tak, aby udr\u017eela ekonomiku r\u016fstu odpadu\/skl\u00e1dkov\u00e1n\u00ed a omezila inflaci na 5 %.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Jin\u00fdmi slovy, dojde ke kompromis\u016fm.\u00a0Pokud chcete m\u00edrnou inflaci (co\u017e je politicky nezbytn\u00e9, proto\u017ee vysok\u00e1 inflace vede k volebn\u00edm ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m) a masivn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f, spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje mus\u00ed dostat z\u00e1sah.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Krom\u011b toho je inflace poh\u00e1n\u011bna dv\u011bma silami: nedostatkem z\u00e1kladn\u00edch v\u011bc\u00ed, jako jsou potraviny a energie, co\u017e je v podstat\u011b tot\u00e9\u017e v industrializovan\u00e9m zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed z\u00e1visl\u00e9m na hnojivech, a expanz\u00ed \u00fav\u011br\u016f p\u0159evy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst produktivity.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Pokud 1 dolar investovan\u00fd do investic produkuje v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hodnotu ve form\u011b zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eeb, znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee se zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed produktivita.\u00a0Pokud CapEx nepovede k v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu mno\u017estv\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eeb, produktivita stagnuje.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Jak jsem vysv\u011btlil d\u0159\u00edve, p\u0159esn\u011b to se stalo v 70. letech 20. stolet\u00ed: byly provedeny masivn\u00ed investice do p\u0159ezbrojen\u00ed americk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu, aby se sn\u00ed\u017eilo zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a zv\u00fd\u0161ila \u00fa\u010dinnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vedlo k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu zlep\u0161en\u00ed blahobytu, ale \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9mu zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed HDP nebo produktivity.\u00a0\u0158\u00edd\u00edme jen to, co m\u011b\u0159\u00edme, a proto\u017ee nem\u011b\u0159\u00edme pohodu, skute\u010dn\u00e1 n\u00e1vratnost t\u011bchto investic ani nebyla m\u011b\u0159ena.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Stejn\u011b jako blahobyt nem\u011b\u0159\u00edme n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost ekonomicky, tak\u017ee zlep\u0161en\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti na\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdroby z\u00e1kladn\u00edho zbo\u017e\u00ed ani nen\u00ed uzn\u00e1no.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Skute\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00ednosy homeshoringu nebudou ani rozpozn\u00e1ny a pochopeny, dokud neopust\u00edme sou\u010dasnou metodiku ekonomick\u00fdch m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed a nenahrad\u00edme je modernizovanou sadou m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 se neomezuj\u00ed pouze na v\u00fdrobu a spot\u0159ebu (tj. \u201er\u016fst\u201c).<\/span><\/p>\n

    Pokud jde o energii, v\u011bt\u0161ina lid\u00ed p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed Jevon\u016fv paradox: p\u0159id\u00e1n\u00ed udr\u017eiteln\u00e9 energie (jakkoli ji definujeme) nenahrazuje na\u0161e pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed uhlovod\u00edk\u016f, pouze zvy\u0161uje na\u0161i celkovou spot\u0159ebu energie.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Dal\u0161\u00edm faktorem, kter\u00fd v\u011bt\u0161ina lid\u00ed p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, je velikost uhlovod\u00edkov\u00e9ho komplexu, kter\u00fd se m\u00e1 nahradit, a \u010dasov\u00fd r\u00e1mec pro tuto v\u00fdm\u011bnu.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Navzdory desetilet\u00edm investic dod\u00e1v\u00e1 alternativn\u00ed energie pouze asi 5 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 energie.\u00a0Ti, kdo obhajuj\u00ed jadernou energii, se jen z\u0159\u00eddka zmi\u0148uj\u00ed o \u010dasov\u00e9m r\u00e1mci pro vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed elektr\u00e1ren, aby se to zm\u011bnilo: desetilet\u00ed, ne roky.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Proto\u017ee levn\u00e1 ropa ji\u017e byla vyt\u011b\u017eena, co zbyde, stoj\u00ed v\u00edce.\u00a0Ano, technologie se zlep\u0161uje, ale nakonec v\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed fyzika;\u00a0mus\u00ed b\u00fdt vynalo\u017eeno v\u00edce energie, aby se nepolapiteln\u00fd olej dostal ze zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Tyto skute\u010dnosti diktuj\u00ed energetick\u00fd \u00fates, kde produkce ropy kles\u00e1 rychleji, ne\u017e lze objevit nov\u00e9 zdroje.\u00a0A m\u00edsto toho, abychom p\u0159i objevov\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch zdroj\u016f vyu\u017e\u00edvali v\u00edce energie, budeme pou\u017e\u00edvat m\u00e9n\u011b a to bude st\u00e1t v\u00edce, ze v\u0161ech d\u016fvod\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsem vysv\u011btlil ve sv\u00e9 knize.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Demografick\u00fd \u00fates je tak\u00e9 nevyhnuteln\u00fd.\u00a0Pracovn\u00ed s\u00edlu p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho desetilet\u00ed nelze nav\u00fd\u0161it, u\u017e existuje, stejn\u011b jako rostouc\u00ed po\u010det d\u016fchodc\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Pokud se spot\u0159eba sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi n\u00e1klady na z\u00e1kladn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed a nutnost\u00ed masivn\u00edch investic, spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e1 ekonomika se zmen\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee syst\u00e9m je navr\u017een pro expanzi, tato kontrakce obr\u00e1t\u00ed celou glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku, jak je v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b nakonfigurov\u00e1na vzh\u016fru nohama.<\/span><\/p>\n

    K t\u011bmto t\u0159em faktor\u016fm se p\u0159id\u00e1vaj\u00ed rostouc\u00ed n\u00e1klady na zdravotn\u00ed p\u00e9\u010di zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 civiliza\u010dn\u00edmi chorobami (obezita atd.), vysokou \u00farovn\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed v rozvojov\u00fdch zem\u00edch a st\u00e1rnut\u00edm populace.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Hled\u00e1n\u00ed zisku neplod\u00ed zdrav\u00ed a hled\u00e1n\u00ed zisku je n\u00e1zev hry tak dlouho, \u017ee si jen m\u00e1lokdo dok\u00e1\u017ee p\u0159edstavit jin\u00fd zp\u016fsob \u017eivota.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Mainstream p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee status quo bude pokra\u010dovat jako doposud.\u00a0To je nejen nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, ale i nemo\u017en\u00e9, pokud se sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed celkov\u00e1 vyroben\u00e1 a spot\u0159ebovan\u00e1 energie.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Jak \u0159ekl energetick\u00fd analytik V\u00e1clav Smil: \u201eNejsem optimista ani pesimista.\u00a0Jsem v\u011bdec\u201c.\u00a0M\u00edsto abychom ztr\u00e1celi \u010das dohadov\u00e1n\u00edm se o optimismu a pesimismu, zam\u011b\u0159me se na fyziku, n\u00e1klady a term\u00edny, tj. realistick\u00e1 hodnocen\u00ed a kompromisy nutn\u00e9 k dosa\u017een\u00ed na\u0161eho c\u00edle udr\u017eiteln\u00e9ho, \u200b\u200botev\u0159en\u00e9ho a spravedliv\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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    ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Obecn\u00fdm p\u0159edpokladem je, \u017ee status quo bude pokra\u010dovat jako d\u0159\u00edve.\u00a0To je nejen nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, ale i…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8823,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[59,285,1203,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20461"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20461"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20461\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8823"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20461"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20461"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20461"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}