{"id":20259,"date":"2022-12-26T06:36:18","date_gmt":"2022-12-26T05:36:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=20259"},"modified":"2022-12-26T06:36:18","modified_gmt":"2022-12-26T05:36:18","slug":"optimismus-vystridala-sklicenost-kyjev-priznava-svou-porazku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/12\/26\/optimismus-vystridala-sklicenost-kyjev-priznava-svou-porazku\/","title":{"rendered":"Optimismus vyst\u0159\u00eddala skl\u00ed\u010denost – Kyjev p\u0159izn\u00e1v\u00e1 svou por\u00e1\u017eku"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Situace se na Ukrajin\u011b t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ka\u017ed\u00fdm dnem zhor\u0161uje.\u00a0Je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, jak kr\u00e1sn\u011b na\u0161e arm\u00e1da rozeb\u00edr\u00e1 Ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly Ukrajiny na sou\u010d\u00e1stky.\u00a0Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b posilujeme na\u0161i obranu v nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdch sm\u011brech, nut\u00edme ukrov m\u011bnit sv\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny, p\u0159esouvat jednotky z m\u00edsta na m\u00edsto pod palbou na\u0161eho d\u011blost\u0159electva.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

A na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b na cel\u00e9 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 1500-kilometrov\u00e9 front\u011b nar\u016fst\u00e1 s\u00edla druh\u00e9ho stupn\u011b rusk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil.\u00a0Nav\u00edc \u010derstv\u00e9 jednotky nejsou bezmy\u0161lenkovit\u011b vrh\u00e1ny do boje, ale metodicky, beze sp\u011bchu, jsou \u201ecvi\u010deny\u201c do \u00fatoku.\u00a0V tomto sm\u011bru pom\u00e1haj\u00ed i B\u011blorusov\u00e9.\u00a0Ne nadarmo v sou\u010dasnosti t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 denn\u011b poslouch\u00e1me, jestli B\u011blorusko do v\u00e1lky vstoup\u00ed nebo ne.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pozoruhodn\u00e9 jsou zejm\u00e9na ty jednotky a formace, kter\u00e9 jsou dnes v p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9m kontaktu s nep\u0159\u00edtelem na frontov\u00e9 linii.\u00a0P\u0159i pozorn\u00e9m sledov\u00e1n\u00ed zpr\u00e1v vojensk\u00fdch zpravodaj\u016f z ter\u00e9nu se zd\u00e1, \u017ee arm\u00e1da stoj\u00ed na m\u00edst\u011b a podstatn\u00e9 pokroky ned\u011bl\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti bojovn\u00edci vykon\u00e1vaj\u00ed nejt\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed roli.\u00a0Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b jednu z nejt\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00edch ve v\u00e1lce.\u00a0Drt\u00ed s\u00edly nep\u0159\u00edtele.\u00a0Funguje to, co spisovatel\u00e9 naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed \u201ev\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd stroj\u201c.\u00a0Ka\u017ed\u00fd den, ka\u017edou hodinu, ka\u017edou minutu jedni ost\u0159eluj\u00ed pozice ukronacist\u016f artil\u00e9ri\u00ed, dal\u0161\u00ed vykon\u00e1vaj\u00ed pr\u016fzkumn\u00e9 a sabot\u00e1\u017en\u00ed aktivity a n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fry p\u011bchot\u011b gran\u00e1ty z dron\u016f\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

Ob\u011b strany ch\u00e1pou slo\u017eitost situace pro Ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly Ukrajiny.\u00a0Nav\u00edc to, \u017ee Ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly Ukrajiny prakticky ztratily schopnost \u00fato\u010dit, ch\u00e1pou i majitel\u00e9 Ukrajiny zpoza oce\u00e1nu.\u00a0Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee ameri\u010dt\u00ed politici pustili do \u201eboje\u201c star\u00fdch politick\u00fdch \u017eralok\u016f, jak\u00fdm byl Henry Kissinger.\u00a0Pro Washington je dnes d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 zat\u00e1hnout Moskvu do jedn\u00e1n\u00ed a d\u00e1t Kyjevu ji\u017e po n\u011bkolik\u00e1t\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost obnovit svou arm\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pentagon dnes \u0159e\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m pravideln\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek techniky a zbran\u00ed.\u00a0\u00datoky rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy na ukrajinskou infrastrukturu zna\u010dn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eily mo\u017enost rychl\u00e9ho p\u0159esunu zbran\u00ed na frontovou linii.\u00a0A maj\u00ed katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed nedostatek person\u00e1lu vy\u0161kolen\u00e9ho pro pr\u00e1ci s modern\u00edmi technologiemi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zalu\u017enyj prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee „nen\u00ed zodpov\u011bdn\u00fd za v\u00fdsledek“<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

To, co \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed m\u00e9dia na obou stran\u00e1ch, jak\u00e9koli zpr\u00e1vy o v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed nebo naopak zpr\u00e1vy o por\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1ch, lze snadno ov\u011b\u0159it.\u00a0Sta\u010d\u00ed pozorn\u011b sledovat poselstv\u00ed z Washingtonu a Bruselu.\u00a0Vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch politik\u016f a arm\u00e1dy jsou sm\u011brov\u00e1na nikoli rusk\u00fdm \u010di ukrajinsk\u00fdm \u201eadres\u00e1tem\u201c, ale glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu Z\u00e1padu.<\/span><\/p>\n

U\u017e hodn\u011b o tom napov\u00edd\u00e1 i zn\u00e1m\u00fd v\u00fdrok gener\u00e1la Zalu\u017en\u00e9ho:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eUd\u011blali jsme v\u0161echny v\u00fdpo\u010dty \u2014 kolik tank\u016f, d\u011blost\u0159electva pot\u0159ebujeme a tak d\u00e1le a tak d\u00e1le.\u00a0To je to, na co se nyn\u00ed mus\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00fd soust\u0159edit.\u00a0Odpus\u0165te mi, voj\u00e1ci v z\u00e1kopech, (ale) te\u010f je d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed soust\u0159edit se na hromad\u011bn\u00ed zdroj\u016f na del\u0161\u00ed a t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed boje, kter\u00e9 mohou za\u010d\u00edt p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

A pak jsou zde specifika, kter\u00e1 jednodu\u0161e p\u0159iv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed gener\u00e1ly do smutku.\u00a0Chu\u0165 gener\u00e1la Zalu\u017en\u00e9ho je skute\u010dn\u011b ze sov\u011btsk\u00e9 \u00e9ry: \u017e\u00e1dejte v\u00edc jednodu\u0161e proto, \u017ee v\u00e1m daj\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b.\u00a0Dovolte mi p\u0159ipomenout v\u00e1m tento \u201enejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed po\u017eadavek\u201c:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eV\u00edm, \u017ee m\u016f\u017eu tohoto nep\u0159\u00edtele porazit.\u00a0Ale pot\u0159ebuji zdroje.\u00a0Pot\u0159ebuji 300 tank\u016f, 600-700 bojov\u00fdch vozidel p\u011bchoty, 500 houfnic.\u00a0Mysl\u00edm si, \u017ee pak bude docela re\u00e1ln\u00e9 dos\u00e1hnout hranice ze 23. \u00fanora.\u00a0Ale se dv\u011bma brig\u00e1dami to ud\u011blat nedok\u00e1\u017eu.\u00a0Dost\u00e1v\u00e1m, co dost\u00e1v\u00e1m, ale je to m\u00e9n\u011b, ne\u017e pot\u0159ebuji\u2026 M\u016f\u017eeme a m\u011bli bychom zachv\u00e1tit mnohem v\u00edce \u00fazem\u00ed.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

P\u0159idejme k tomu zpr\u00e1vu rozv\u011bdky, \u017ee doslova druh\u00fd den, 19. prosince, dorazilo do oblasti Ar\u0165omovska 800 zcela nep\u0159ipraven\u00fdch mobilizovan\u00fdch Ukrajinc\u016f, z nich\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina nem\u011bla v\u016fbec \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd vojensk\u00fd v\u00fdcvik.\u00a0\u201eOdpus\u0165te mi voj\u00e1ci v z\u00e1kopech\u2026\u201c A kolik z t\u011bch 800 bude je\u0161t\u011b za t\u00fdden na\u017eivu?<\/span><\/p>\n

Av\u0161ak Ukrajinci by nebyli Ukrajinci, kdyby se nechv\u00e1lili a st\u00e1le n\u011bco ne\u017e\u00e1dali.\u00a0V\u017edy to bylo pro m\u011b z\u00e1hadou.\u00a0Jak \u0159ekl jeden zn\u00e1m\u00fd z t\u011bch m\u00edst, \u201eje n\u00e1m to vlastn\u00ed\u201c ve smyslu trochu lh\u00e1t, aby zv\u00fd\u0161ily sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed z\u00e1sluhy.\u00a0Mo\u017en\u00e1 je tomu tak.\u00a0Alespo\u0148 soud\u011b podle vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9ho Zalu\u017en\u00e9ho.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201e\u0158eknu mu (americk\u00e9mu gener\u00e1lovi Marku Milleymu), kolik to stoj\u00ed.\u00a0Pokud to nez\u00edsk\u00e1me (zbran\u011b), samoz\u0159ejm\u011b budeme bojovat a\u017e do konce.\u00a0Ale jak \u0159ekla postava ve filmu \u2013 \u201enemohu ru\u010dit za n\u00e1sledky\u201c.\u00a0D\u016fsledky nen\u00ed obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159edv\u00eddat (game over \u2014 pozn. aut.).\u00a0Toto mus\u00edme ud\u011blat.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

\u010ctej\u00edc rozhovor s ukrajinsk\u00fdm gener\u00e1lem si najednou uv\u011bdomuji, \u017ee jsem za\u010dal ch\u00e1pat, pro\u010d \u201epravov\u011brn\u00ed\u201c vlastenci ni\u010d\u00ed pam\u00e1tn\u00edky A. Pu\u0161kina.\u00a0Pamatujete si poh\u00e1dku o ryb\u00e1\u0159i a rybce?\u00a0Zalu\u017enyj je tam zobrazen v podob\u011b sta\u0159enky.\u00a0Jak to mohl Alexandr Sergejevi\u010d p\u0159edv\u00eddat, nev\u00edm, ale skute\u010dnost, \u017ee ur\u010dit\u011b trefil do \u010dern\u00e9ho a jeho busty a pam\u00e1tn\u00edky dnes likviduj\u00ed, je fakt.\u00a0\u201eCht\u011bl bych\u2026\u201c v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 verzi:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eM\u00e1me dost lid\u00ed a jasn\u011b vid\u00edm, co m\u00e1me.\u00a0Toho je dostatek.\u00a0Nepot\u0159ebuji dal\u0161\u00ed statis\u00edce.\u00a0Pot\u0159ebujeme tanky, pot\u0159ebujeme obrn\u011bn\u00e9 transport\u00e9ry, bojov\u00e1 vozidla p\u011bchoty.\u00a0A pot\u0159ebujeme munici.\u00a0Upozor\u0148ujeme, \u017ee te\u010f nemluv\u00edm o F-16.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Co chyb\u00ed ve v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fdch vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00edch, aby to vyvolalo u z\u00e1padn\u00edch mecen\u00e1\u0161\u016f odezvu?\u00a0P\u0159esn\u011b tak, Zalu\u017en\u00e9mu a cel\u00e9 Ukrajin\u011b chyb\u00ed smysl pro realitu.\u00a0T\u00edmto v podstat\u011b jen upozor\u0148uji Rusy, zejm\u00e9na ty, kte\u0159\u00ed \u017eij\u00ed za Uralem: p\u0159ijet za kamar\u00e1dem po zimn\u00ed cest\u011b do vesnice vzd\u00e1len\u00e9 100 – 200 kilometr\u016f je bl\u00edzko, ale v evropsk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti vzd\u00e1lenosti p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed jin\u00e9 hodnoty:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eJak\u00e1koli ukrajinsk\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva na poloostrov (Krym \u2013 pozn. p\u0159ekl.) by musela sm\u011b\u0159ovat p\u0159es m\u011bsto Melitopol v Z\u00e1poro\u017esk\u00e9 oblasti, asi 84 kilometr\u016f od sou\u010dasn\u00e9 frontov\u00e9 linie.\u00a0Melitopol by n\u00e1m dal plnou palebnou kontrolu nad pozemn\u00edm koridorem, proto\u017ee z Melitopolu u\u017e m\u016f\u017eeme st\u0159\u00edlet na Krymskou \u0161\u00edji ze syst\u00e9m\u016f HIMARS (americk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my M142 \u2013 pozn. autora) a tak d\u00e1le.\u00a0Pro\u010d to \u0159\u00edk\u00e1m?\u00a0Proto\u017ee se t\u00edm vrac\u00edm k m\u00e9mu p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu bodu o zdroj\u00edch.\u00a0Na z\u00e1klad\u011b aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00falohy mohu vypo\u010d\u00edtat, jak\u00e9 zdroje jsou pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 k vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed bojov\u00e9 zp\u016fsobilosti.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Nes\u00e1hli jste je\u0161t\u011b do vlastn\u00ed kapsy a neodevzdali jste posledn\u00edch 20 kopejek na \u00fa\u010det Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil Ukrajiny?\u00a0Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 tak\u00e9 ne.\u00a0Neud\u011blali to jen proto, \u017ee nesly\u0161eli z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dnou \u010d\u00e1st \u017e\u00e1dosti uboh\u00e9ho velitele ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00fd profesion\u00e1ln\u00ed \u017eebr\u00e1k v\u00e1m potvrd\u00ed, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dost mus\u00ed skon\u010dit pochmurnou p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed.\u00a0\u201ePokud ned\u00e1\u0161\u2026\u201c a pak n\u00e1sleduje popis hrozn\u00e9ho tr\u00e1pen\u00ed hlady a zimou a je\u0161t\u011b hrozn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed smrti:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eRusk\u00e1 mobiliz\u00e1cia zafungovala.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201eNen\u00ed pravda, \u017ee jejich probl\u00e9my jsou tak v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee tito lid\u00e9 nebudou bojovat.\u00a0Budou.\u00a0Car jim \u0159ekne, aby \u0161li do v\u00e1lky a oni p\u016fjdou.\u00a0Studoval jsem historii dvou \u010de\u010densk\u00fdch v\u00e1lek – bylo to tot\u00e9\u017e.\u00a0Mo\u017en\u00e1 nejsou tak dob\u0159e vybaveni, ale st\u00e1le jsou pro n\u00e1s probl\u00e9mem.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Kyjev tedy p\u0159izn\u00e1v\u00e1 svou por\u00e1\u017eku.\u00a0Alespo\u0148 v tomto konkr\u00e9tn\u00edm moment\u011b.\u00a0Uzn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee pokud Z\u00e1pad nezv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed vojenskou pomoc, Ukrajina se vzd\u00e1.\u00a0A prezentuje se to jako hrozba pro Z\u00e1pad.\u00a0Ten p\u0159\u00edpad, kdy dlu\u017en\u00edk mus\u00ed \u017e\u00edt, aby mohl vr\u00e1tit pen\u00edze.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak to je dnes a jak to bude z\u00edtra?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1sti \u010dl\u00e1nku se op\u011bt neobejdeme bez vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed Zalu\u017en\u00e9ho.\u00a0Inu, je to velmi hovorn\u00fd gener\u00e1l, pokud jde o pravidelnou vojenskou pomoc ze strany USA a Z\u00e1padu v\u016fbec.\u00a0Mluvn\u00fd je a\u017e natolik, \u017ee \u010dasto prozrazuje sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed pl\u00e1ny a n\u00e1pady.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eRusov\u00e9 cvi\u010d\u00ed asi 200.000 nov\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f.\u00a0Nepochybuji, \u017ee ud\u011blaj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed pokus za\u00fato\u010dit na Kyjev.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e se zm\u00edn\u00edm o tom, co \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed o bezprost\u0159edn\u00edch vyhl\u00eddk\u00e1ch na Z\u00e1pad\u011b, vyj\u00e1d\u0159\u00edm n\u011bkolik sv\u00fdch vlastn\u00edch my\u0161lenek o sou\u010dasn\u00e9 situaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prvn\u00edm a pro mnoh\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejv\u00edce znepokojuj\u00edc\u00edm probl\u00e9mem je probl\u00e9m neust\u00e1l\u00e9ho ost\u0159elov\u00e1n\u00ed Don\u011bcka a m\u011bst a obc\u00ed pod\u00e9l severn\u00ed hranice s Ruskem.\u00a0Co vyvolalo tak divokou taktiku Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil Ukrajiny – st\u0159\u00edlet na civiln\u00ed obyvatelstvo?<\/em><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee o velk\u00e9 touze Kyjeva dob\u00fdt Melitopol jsme u\u017e psali.\u00a0Toto jsem zm\u00ednil v\u00fd\u0161e.\u00a0Av\u0161ak dodnes je tato touha nenapln\u011bna.\u00a0I s plnohodnotn\u00fdmi dod\u00e1vkami zbran\u00ed a v\u00fdzbroje.\u00a0Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da v kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 dob\u011b vytvo\u0159ila silnou skupinu v Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed a vybudovala seri\u00f3zn\u00ed obrann\u00e9 linie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedin\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak toto seskupen\u00ed alespo\u0148 n\u011bjak oslabit, bylo p\u0159im\u011bt nep\u0159\u00edtele (arm\u00e1du Rusk\u00e9 federace) p\u0159ev\u00e9st \u010d\u00e1st jednotek do jin\u00e9ho sektoru.\u00a0A pr\u00e1v\u011b zde m\u016f\u017ee pomoci pou\u017eit\u00ed mal\u00fdch, mobiln\u00edch bateri\u00ed MLRS a d\u011blost\u0159electva p\u0159i chaotick\u00e9m ost\u0159elov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edst.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ijdou, vyp\u00e1l\u00ed a odejdou na jin\u00e9 m\u00edsto.\u00a0D\u00e1le je to pou\u017eit\u00ed syst\u00e9m\u016f ko\u010dovn\u00fdch minomet\u016f.\u00a0To vysv\u011btluje relativn\u011b kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 trv\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fatok\u016f.\u00a0To vysv\u011btluje po\u010det \u201ep\u0159\u00edlet\u016f\u201c.\u00a0A to vysv\u011btluje i frekvenci ost\u0159elov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Ale co je nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ukrajinsk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia se v\u016fbec netaj\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee d\u011blost\u0159electvo m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed na civilisty.\u00a0Jakoby cht\u011bli vysv\u011btlit situaci \u201ep\u0159ibrzd\u011bn\u00fdm Rus\u016fm\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nakolik je tato taktika \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1, lze posoudit z reakce v soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch.\u00a0Lid\u00e9 jsou pobou\u0159eni, \u017e\u00e1daj\u00ed od vojensk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed odplatu za ost\u0159elov\u00e1n\u00ed a smrt civilist\u016f.\u00a0\u017d\u00e1daj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsnou odplatu?\u00a0Bohu\u017eel, b\u011bhem speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operace jsme vid\u011bli naopak ne\u0159adu p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e9 odplaty, ale z ukrajinsk\u00e9 strany teror neutich\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Paniku v Kyjev\u011b zp\u016fsobuje klid vrchn\u00edho velitele a gener\u00e1la Surovikova.\u00a0Metodick\u00e9 \u201ebrou\u0161en\u00ed\u201c jednotek a formac\u00ed Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil Ukrajiny p\u0159i absenci seri\u00f3zn\u00edch \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch akc\u00ed.\u00a0Nepot\u0159ebujete m\u00edt \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 hlubok\u00e9 znalosti v oblasti vojensk\u00fdch z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed, abyste pochopili jednoduchou pravdu – nem\u016f\u017eete vyhr\u00e1t, ani\u017e byste vnutili svou v\u016fli nep\u0159\u00edteli!<\/em><\/p>\n

To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee Moskva m\u00e1 jen dv\u011b mo\u017enosti.\u00a0Bu\u010f se vzd\u00e1t aktivn\u00edch bojov\u00fdch operac\u00ed a pokra\u010dovat v jednoduch\u00e9m fyzick\u00e9m ni\u010den\u00ed Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil Ukrajiny, co\u017e znamen\u00e1 vzd\u00e1t se v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed nebo p\u0159ipravit ofenz\u00edvu.\u00a0Ofenziva, jej\u00edm\u017e \u00fa\u010delem bude kone\u010dn\u00e1 por\u00e1\u017eka Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil Ukrajiny a p\u0159inucen\u00ed Kyjeva vzd\u00e1t se.<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b p\u0159i akceptov\u00e1n\u00ed druh\u00e9ho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e by bylo nejlep\u0161\u00edm \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm spustit ofenz\u00edvu na v\u00edce front\u00e1ch najednou.\u00a0Nejen na v\u00fdchod\u011b a jihov\u00fdchod\u011b, ale tak\u00e9 na severu a severoz\u00e1pad\u011b.\u00a0Rozt\u00e1hnout formace Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil Ukrajiny do v\u00edce sm\u011br\u016f a prolomit oslabenou obranu.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b takto p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161lej\u00ed iv Kyjev\u011b.\u00a0Proto ta \u010detn\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed o p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b \u00fatoku na hlavn\u00ed m\u011bsto Ukrajiny.\u00a0Proto ta prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed o vstupu B\u011bloruska do v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Neboj se, jsem s tebou<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Pentagon m\u00e1 ale pon\u011bkud jin\u00fd n\u00e1zor.\u00a0Nem\u016f\u017eu \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee by Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 neznali skute\u010dn\u00fd stav v\u011bc\u00ed, ale podle nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy \u201eInstitutu pro studium v\u00e1lky\u201c Pentagon vyvozuje zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry, kter\u00e9 se Kyjevu moc nel\u00edb\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle americk\u00fdch expert\u016f je B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm k mo\u017enosti \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 operace v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch skeptick\u00fd.\u00a0Takov\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry jsou vyvozov\u00e1ny sp\u00ed\u0161e na z\u00e1klad\u011b posouzen\u00ed jejich vlastn\u00edch zdroj\u016f, ne\u017e zdroj\u016f Rus\u016f.\u00a0P\u0159esn\u011bji p\u0159i posouzen\u00ed mo\u017enosti rychl\u00e9 v\u00fdroby zbran\u00ed a zejm\u00e9na st\u0159eliva.<\/span><\/p>\n

Odhady se velmi li\u0161\u00ed, nap\u0159\u00edklad pokud jde o n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvu prezidenta Putina v Minsku.\u00a0Zat\u00edmco Ukrajinci hovo\u0159\u00ed o \u00faloze p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit prezidenta Luka\u0161enka, aby vstoupil do v\u00e1lky, pak Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 hovo\u0159\u00ed o dal\u0161\u00ed integraci B\u011bloruska do Unie.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201ePutin bude s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed prosazovat dal\u0161\u00ed integraci dvou zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se st\u00e1le v\u00edce st\u00e1vaj\u00ed jednou, zejm\u00e9na po nahromad\u011bn\u00ed rusk\u00fdch jednotek v letech 2021-2022 p\u0159ed rozs\u00e1hlou invaz\u00ed na Ukrajinu.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b poprv\u00e9 ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech p\u0159\u00edmo prohla\u0161uj\u00ed, \u017ee jde o dal\u0161\u00ed f\u00e1zi informa\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lky.\u00a0Je to ne\u010dekan\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je vlastn\u011b p\u0159izn\u00e1n\u00edm, \u017ee Kyjevu se ned\u00e1 v ni\u010dem v\u011b\u0159it.\u00a0Klamstva jako zp\u016fsob veden\u00ed v\u00e1lky, metoda konsolidace spole\u010dnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eObavy Ukrajiny z nov\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy Kyjeva mohou b\u00fdt sm\u011bsic\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e9ho znepokojen\u00ed a prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edho mistrovsk\u00e9ho kurzu informa\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lky.\u00a0Pro zemi, kter\u00e1 bojuje o \u017eivot, je lep\u0161\u00ed vyvolat co nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed poplach v nad\u011bji, \u017ee to vyvol\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed podporu.\u00a0Jen to d\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Zcela zaj\u00edmav\u00fd je z\u00e1v\u011br o pochybn\u00e9 mo\u017enosti rusk\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy ve sv\u011btle pr\u016ftah\u016f \u010di neochoty dod\u00e1vat munici a zbran\u011b pro Ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly Ukrajiny.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eKrom\u011b toho m\u00e1 Rusko v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 probl\u00e9my s udr\u017een\u00edm pozic na v\u00fdchod\u011b a jihu, kter\u00e9 z\u00edskalo v po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edm stadiu, proto\u017ee v posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch ztratilo velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti z nich.\u00a0My\u0161lenka, \u017ee mohou vz\u00edt hlavn\u00ed m\u011bsto a dr\u017eet ho a z\u00e1rove\u0148 plnit po\u017eadavky jinde na boji\u0161ti, je velmi sporn\u00e1.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 B\u011blorusko.\u00a0Posledn\u00ed nad\u011bje Ukrajiny na pozici dal\u0161\u00edho agresora.\u00a0Teoreticky nen\u00ed v t\u00e9to ot\u00e1zce o \u010dem polemizovat.\u00a0Zv\u00fd\u0161ila rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da svou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v zemi?\u00a0Zv\u00fd\u0161ila!\u00a0Konaj\u00ed se cvi\u010den\u00ed v bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed bl\u00edzkosti hranic Ukrajiny?\u00a0Jednaj\u00ed!\u00a0Zesiluje se hranice?\u00a0Zesiluje!\u00a0Byla n\u011bjak\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed prezidenta Luka\u0161enka o odporu v\u016f\u010di nep\u0159\u00edteli?\u00a0Byly!<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1lo by se, \u017ee s takov\u00fdmi trumfy v ruce je prost\u011b nemo\u017en\u00e9 neozna\u010dit Minsk za agresora.\u00a0Pod\u00edvejme se v\u0161ak, jak vyvracej\u00ed argumenty Kyjeva Ameri\u010dan\u00e9.\u00a0Je to opravdu zaj\u00edmav\u00e9.\u00a0Ve stylu \u201enepova\u017euj Luka\u0161enka za bl\u00e1zna\u201c:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eTer\u00e9n (pohrani\u010dn\u00ed oblasti \u2014 pozn. red.) je slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, nebude tam \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd prvek p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed a takov\u00e1 operace se uskute\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmo pod nosem rozv\u011bdky NATO.\u00a0To by Ukrajin\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b usnadnilo potrest\u00e1n\u00ed takov\u00fdch aktivit.\u00a0Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b to tak\u00e9 povede k je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 podpo\u0159e pro Ukrajinu kv\u016fli bl\u00edzkosti k hranic\u00edm NATO.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Pentagon nazna\u010duje, \u017ee jak\u00e1koli operace ze strany B\u011bloruska p\u0159i sou\u010dasn\u00e9m uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed sil a prost\u0159edk\u016f bude m\u00edt \u201eob\u011btn\u00ed charakter\u201c.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee b\u011blorusk\u00e9 jednotky od sam\u00e9ho za\u010d\u00e1tku operace spadnou do takov\u00e9ho ml\u00fdnku na maso, \u017ee se nikomu m\u00e1lo neuk\u00e1\u017ee.\u00a0A tam Rusov\u00e9 kv\u016fli vlastn\u00ed neschopnosti nepomohou.\u00a0Alexander Luka\u0161enko tento krok prost\u011b neud\u011bl\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed to zaj\u00edmav\u00e9?\u00a0Ale t\u011bm, kte\u0159\u00ed sleduj\u00ed aktivity a vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho prezidenta, Alexander Grigorjevi\u010d odpov\u011bd\u011bl u\u017e d\u00e1vno.\u00a0Bude-li to nutn\u00e9 \u2014 budeme bojovat.\u00a0P\u0159itom je b\u011blorusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da p\u0159ipravena br\u00e1nit svou zemi do posledn\u00ed kapky krve.\u00a0Pozn\u00e1vaj\u00edc mentalitu B\u011blorus\u016f, budou!\u00a0Jsou to mil\u00ed, pracovit\u00ed a m\u00edrumilovn\u00ed lid\u00e9, ale nen\u00ed t\u0159eba je dr\u00e1\u017edit.\u00a0Bude to bolet.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nam\u00edsto z\u00e1v\u011br\u016f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 od sam\u00e9ho za\u010d\u00e1tku speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operace jsem hodn\u011b hluboce studoval hodn\u011b z toho, co p\u00ed\u0161\u00ed specializovan\u00e1 z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia.\u00a0Existuje opravdu mnoho rozumn\u00fdch lid\u00ed, dobr\u00fdch analytik\u016f a vojensk\u00fdch expert\u016f.\u00a0Mohu tedy uv\u00e9st ur\u010dit\u00e9 zm\u011bny v jejich r\u00e9torice.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bkdej\u0161\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bru, \u017ee sjednocen\u00fd Z\u00e1pad snadno p\u0159inut\u00ed Rusko pod\u0159\u00eddit se, vyst\u0159\u00eddali pochybnosti a t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 panika \u2013 tito Rusov\u00e9 si mohou d\u011blat, co cht\u011bj\u00ed, dokonce iv rozporu se zdrav\u00fdm rozumem.\u00a0N\u011bkdo o tom mluv\u00ed otev\u0159en\u011b, n\u011bkdo to nen\u00e1padn\u011b nazna\u010duje, ale u\u017e nen\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry ve v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nastal \u010das, kdy z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161let o tom, jak se dostat ze situace s co nejmen\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1tou image.\u00a0Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 op\u011bt Evropu p\u0159edb\u011bhli, ai prost\u0159edky, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e do\u0161ly na operaci na Ukrajin\u011b, se mohou jednodu\u0161e vr\u00e1tit americk\u00e9 ekonomice.\u00a0Evropa bude na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b je\u0161t\u011b dlouho skl\u00edzet plody sv\u00e9 slep\u00e9 v\u00edry v \u201edemokratick\u00e9ho v\u016fdce sv\u011bta\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kyjev deprimuje zejm\u00e9na to, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad prakticky p\u0159estal mluvit o n\u00e1vratu Krymu a Donbasu.\u00a0To v\u016fbec neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee podpora Kyjevu brzy p\u0159estane.\u00a0Je dost mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad p\u016fjde na zm\u011bnu prvn\u00edho \u010dlov\u011bka na Ukrajin\u011b, jako\u017e i mo\u017enost do\u010dasn\u00e9ho zastaven\u00ed boj\u016f.<\/em><\/p>\n

Celkov\u011b na Z\u00e1pad\u011b za\u010daly p\u0159evl\u00e1dat pesimistick\u00e9 podt\u00f3ny.\u00a0Tak\u017ee d\u011bl\u00e1me v\u0161echno spr\u00e1vn\u011b.\u00a0No, ne-li v\u0161echno, tak mnoho\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

Alexander Staver<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Situace se na Ukrajin\u011b t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ka\u017ed\u00fdm dnem zhor\u0161uje.\u00a0Je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, jak kr\u00e1sn\u011b na\u0161e arm\u00e1da rozeb\u00edr\u00e1 Ozbrojen\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11303,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,221,39,1047,22,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20259"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20259"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20259\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11303"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}