{"id":19815,"date":"2022-12-17T01:00:28","date_gmt":"2022-12-17T00:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=19815"},"modified":"2022-12-16T14:51:59","modified_gmt":"2022-12-16T13:51:59","slug":"chytry-tah-jak-erdogan-zabije-dve-mouchy-jednou-ranou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/12\/17\/chytry-tah-jak-erdogan-zabije-dve-mouchy-jednou-ranou\/","title":{"rendered":"Chytr\u00fd tah: Jak Erdogan zabije dv\u011b mouchy jednou ranou"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Tureck\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva proti Kurd\u016fm na severu S\u00fdrie se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt Erdoganov\u00fdm chytr\u00fdm tahem, kter\u00fd by mohl fungovat.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

18. \u010dervna 2023 se v Turecku budou konat parlamentn\u00ed a prezidentsk\u00e9 volby sou\u010dasn\u011b.\u00a0V\u011bt\u0161ina pro Erdoganovu vl\u00e1dn\u00ed alianci nen\u00ed jist\u00e1, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e ekonomick\u00e1 situace v Turecku je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e1 a zem\u011b trp\u00ed nesm\u00edrnou inflac\u00ed.\u00a0Erdoganovo rozhodnut\u00ed nyn\u00ed zas\u00e1hnout s arm\u00e1dou proti syrsk\u00fdm Kurd\u016fm z YPG je t\u0159eba vn\u00edmat i na pozad\u00ed nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch voleb, proto\u017ee Erdogan pot\u0159ebuje velk\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch, pokud chce volby s jistotou vyhr\u00e1t.<\/span><\/p>\n

Boj proti Kurd\u016fm z PKK, jej\u00ed\u017e odno\u017e\u00ed je YPG, je v Turecku popul\u00e1rn\u00ed.\u00a0Tak\u017ee v\u00fdhra proti kurdsk\u00e9 frontov\u00e9 organizaci PKK nebo jej\u00ed syrsk\u00e9 odno\u017ei by byla n\u011bco, co by Erdoganovi pomohlo ve volb\u00e1ch.\u00a0Proti tomu v\u0161ak stoj\u00ed fakt, \u017ee vojensk\u00e1 operace v\u017edy zahrnuje riziko mnoha mrtv\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, co\u017e nen\u00ed popul\u00e1rn\u00ed v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 zemi na sv\u011bt\u011b.\u00a0Ot\u00e1zkou tedy je, jak m\u016f\u017ee Erdogan dos\u00e1hnout \u00fasp\u011bchu proti Kurd\u016fm, ani\u017e by riskoval p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho ob\u011bt\u00ed mezi vlastn\u00edmi voj\u00e1ky.<\/span><\/p>\n

St\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed probl\u00e9m<\/span><\/h3>\n

Dne 14. prosince jsem\u00a0p\u0159elo\u017eil\u00a0<\/a><\/span>anal\u00fdzu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00edho zpravodaje pro ruskou tiskovou agenturu TASS , kter\u00e1,\u00a0jak se zd\u00e1, m\u00e1 na tuto ot\u00e1zku odpov\u011b\u010f.\u00a0Tak\u017ee se zde zopakuji a vyj\u00e1d\u0159\u00edm se k z\u00e1sadn\u00edm \u010d\u00e1stem.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201e\u0158ada expert\u016f se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e9 snahy o vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed situace na severu S\u00fdrie by mohly Ankaru a Dama\u0161ek sbl\u00ed\u017eit.\u00a0Sloupek Al-Ahbar Ayham Murai pouk\u00e1zal na projev rusk\u00e9ho ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sergeje Lavrova na Primakovov\u00fdch \u010dten\u00edch, ve kter\u00e9m navrhl, aby se S\u00fdrie a Turecko vr\u00e1tily k bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed koordinaci k zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti na sd\u00edlen\u00e9 hranici, jak je stanoveno v dohod\u00e1ch z Adana z roku 1998.<\/em><\/p>\n

P\u0159ed syrskou v\u00e1lkou nebyly na turecko-syrsk\u00e9 hranici \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 probl\u00e9my, proto\u017ee dohoda z Adany stanovila, \u017ee S\u00fdrie vyhod\u00ed PKK ze zem\u011b a \u017ee Turecko v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby podnikne vojenskou akci proti kurdsk\u00fdm jednotk\u00e1m na syrsk\u00e9 stran\u011b v r. m\u016f\u017ee pohrani\u010dn\u00ed oblast o \u0161\u00ed\u0159ce 15 kilometr\u016f.\u00a0S\u00fdrie v\u0161ak v sou\u010dasnosti nen\u00ed schopna realizovat svou \u010d\u00e1st dohody, proto\u017ee kurdsk\u00e9 oblasti nejsou pod kontrolou syrsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy.\u00a0Syrsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da nem\u016f\u017ee zas\u00e1hnout proti Kurd\u016fm a znovu z\u00edskat kontrolu silou, proto\u017ee v kurdsk\u00e9 oblasti jsou ameri\u010dt\u00ed voj\u00e1ci, kte\u0159\u00ed tuto oblast de facto okupuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aby bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 realizovat to, co navrhoval Lavrov, museli by b\u00fdt Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010deni, aby se alespo\u0148 st\u00e1hli z pohrani\u010dn\u00ed oblasti, nebo aby S\u00fdrii \u00fapln\u011b opustili.\u00a0Pak by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 vyjednan\u00e9 urovn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi syrskou vl\u00e1dou a Kurdy, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by se hranice vr\u00e1tila pod kontrolu S\u00fdrie a umo\u017enilo by o\u017eiven\u00ed dohody z Adany.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je mimochodem v\u00fdznamn\u00e9, \u017ee americk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost v S\u00fdrii vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed pro spojence NATO Turecko bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed riziko, kter\u00e9 za syrsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy neexistovalo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zab\u00edt dv\u011b mouchy jednou ranou<\/span><\/h3>\n

TASS d\u00e1le p\u00ed\u0161e:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201eMurai nevylu\u010duje, \u017ee zlep\u0161en\u00ed vztah\u016f mezi ob\u011bma sousedy, zah\u00e1jen\u00ed rozhovor\u016f o pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9m uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed v S\u00fdrii a ot\u00e1zka n\u00e1vratu uprchl\u00edk\u016f p\u0159ed \u010dervnov\u00fdmi prezidentsk\u00fdmi volbami jsou v z\u00e1jmu vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed Strany spravedlnosti a rozvoje v roce Ankara mohla.\u00a0„Erdogan se sna\u017e\u00ed zab\u00edt dv\u011b mouchy jednou ranou: vyhr\u00e1t nekrvav\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed nad Kurdy a demonstrovat nov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup ke vztah\u016fm s Dama\u0161kem,“ \u0159ekl pozorovatel.\u00a0Pochybuje v\u0161ak, \u017ee b\u011bhem p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch \u0161esti m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f dojde k setk\u00e1n\u00ed prezident\u016f Erdogan a Asad.\u00a0Podle jeho informac\u00ed se syrsko-tureck\u00e9 kontakty zat\u00edm odehr\u00e1valy na \u00farovni tajn\u00fdch slu\u017eeb.<\/em><\/p>\n

Najdeme zde odkaz na nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed volby v Turecku a mo\u017enou Erdoganovu strategii: Svou ok\u00e1zale ohl\u00e1\u0161enou ofenzivou chce pouze tla\u010dit na to, aby nastal pohyb v situaci a mohl se dohodnout se syrskou vl\u00e1dou.\u00a0Pokud by syrsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da dok\u00e1zala znovu z\u00edskat kontrolu nad oblastmi a znovu implementovat dohodu z Adany, byl by to pro Erdogana velk\u00fd vnitropolitick\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch, kter\u00e9ho by bylo dosa\u017eeno s t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdmi vlastn\u00edmi mrtv\u00fdmi voj\u00e1ky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pozorovatel dotazovan\u00fd agenturou TASS ale pochybuje, \u017ee v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b dojde k setk\u00e1n\u00ed Erdogana a Asada, kde by mohlo doj\u00edt k dohod\u011b.\u00a0Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee pozorovatel se m\u00fdl\u00ed, jak ukazuje ned\u00e1vn\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>zpr\u00e1va TASS<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kterou proto p\u0159ekl\u00e1d\u00e1m v pln\u00e9m zn\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za\u010d\u00e1tek p\u0159ekladu:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Erdogan navrhuje sch\u016fzku prezident\u016f Turecka, Ruska a S\u00fdrie<\/span><\/h3>\n

Tureck\u00fd prezident tak\u00e9 obhajoval spole\u010dn\u00fd postup t\u0159\u00ed zem\u00ed v pozemn\u00ed operaci v S\u00fdrii<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

ANKARA, 15. prosince.\u00a0Tureck\u00fd prezident Recep Tayyip Erdogan \u0159ekl, \u017ee navrhl sv\u00e9mu rusk\u00e9mu prot\u011bj\u0161ku Vladimiru Putinovi, aby uspo\u0159\u00e1dal t\u0159\u00edstrann\u00e9 setk\u00e1n\u00ed se syrsk\u00fdm prezidentem Ba\u0161\u00e1rem al-Asadem.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eTo v\u0161ak vy\u017eaduje setk\u00e1n\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00e9 komunity, pot\u00e9 ministra obrany a nakonec ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed.\u00a0Na z\u00e1klad\u011b v\u00fdsledk\u016f t\u011bchto jedn\u00e1n\u00ed bude mo\u017en\u00e9 hovo\u0159it o setk\u00e1n\u00ed hlav st\u00e1t\u016f.\u00a0Navrhl jsem to panu Putinovi a on pozitivn\u011b p\u0159evzal iniciativu.\u00a0Bude to za\u010d\u00e1tek \u0159ady jedn\u00e1n\u00ed,\u201c \u0159ekl tureck\u00fd v\u016fdce novin\u00e1\u0159\u016fm po n\u00e1vratu z Turkmenbashi, kde se ve st\u0159edu z\u00fa\u010dastnil setk\u00e1n\u00ed hlav st\u00e1t\u016f Turecka, Turkmenist\u00e1nu a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu.\u00a0Jeho vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed ve \u010dtvrtek citovala televizn\u00ed stanice TRT.<\/span><\/p>\n

K pl\u00e1n\u016fm Turecka prov\u00e9st pozemn\u00ed operaci v S\u00fdrii Erdogan \u0159ekl: \u201eAnkara je pro spole\u010dn\u00e9 kroky Ruska, Turecka a S\u00fdrie.\u201c Erdogan v t\u00e9to souvislosti p\u0159ipomn\u011bl rozhodnut\u00ed zakotven\u00e9 v memorandu ze So\u010di z roku 2019.\u00a0\u201eCo je to za rozhodnut\u00ed?\u00a0Jde o vytvo\u0159en\u00ed 30 km \u0161irok\u00e9ho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho koridoru ji\u017en\u011b od na\u0161ich hranic.\u00a0U\u010din\u00edme v\u0161echny pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 kroky k vytvo\u0159en\u00ed tohoto koridoru.\u00a0Nen\u00ed to nic nov\u00e9ho, prob\u00edralo se to u\u017e v Astan\u011b a pak v So\u010di.\u00a0Tak\u00e9 na\u0161e koordinace s Ruskem ohledn\u011b S\u00fdrie nen\u00ed nic nov\u00e9ho,\u201c \u0159ekl tureck\u00fd prezident.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee Anka\u0159e doch\u00e1z\u00ed trp\u011blivost s teroristickou hrozbou vych\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed ze sousedn\u00ed zem\u011b a podporou teroristick\u00fdch organizac\u00ed ze strany Z\u00e1padu, zejm\u00e9na Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f.\u00a0„\u0158\u00edk\u00e1me zejm\u00e9na USA, \u017ee pokud budou nad\u00e1le pos\u00edlat tis\u00edce n\u00e1kladn\u00edch aut zbran\u00ed, munice a vybaven\u00ed teroristick\u00fdm organizac\u00edm, kter\u00e9 tam p\u016fsob\u00ed, podnikneme kroky, abychom se ochr\u00e1nili,“ \u0159ekl Erdogan.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tureck\u00e1 m\u00e9dia po jedn\u00e1n\u00ed prezident\u016f Turecka a Ruska 5. srpna v So\u010di uvedla, \u017ee Ankara jedn\u00e1 o mo\u017enosti p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch kontakt\u016f mezi tureck\u00fdmi a syrsk\u00fdmi v\u016fdci.\u00a0Tureck\u00e1 vl\u00e1da v t\u00e9to souvislosti uvedla, \u017ee takov\u00e9 rozhovory zat\u00edm nejsou pl\u00e1nov\u00e1ny.\u00a0Erdogan 6. \u0159\u00edjna po summitu Evropsk\u00e9ho politick\u00e9ho spole\u010denstv\u00ed v Praze prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee osobn\u00ed setk\u00e1n\u00ed s Asadem v tuto chv\u00edli nep\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed v \u00favahu.\u00a0Pozd\u011bji \u0159ekl, \u017ee takov\u00e1 sch\u016fzka se uskute\u010dn\u00ed, \u201ea\u017e bude spr\u00e1vn\u00fd \u010das\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

konec p\u0159ekladu<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Jak zareaguj\u00ed USA?<\/span><\/h3>\n

Turecko, S\u00fdrie a Rusko se nyn\u00ed shoduj\u00ed, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b p\u0159\u00edtomnost americk\u00fdch jednotek v severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed S\u00fdrii naru\u0161uje bezpe\u010dnost v regionu.\u00a0S\u00fdrie by r\u00e1da znovu z\u00edskala kontrolu nad sv\u00fdm \u00fazem\u00edm a tamn\u00ed Kurdov\u00e9 proti n\u00ed v z\u00e1sad\u011b nic nemaj\u00ed, ale cht\u011bj\u00ed co nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed autonomii.\u00a0Syrsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1d\u011b se to nel\u00edb\u00ed, ale k dohod\u011b by se asi p\u0159i tro\u0161e tlaku Moskvy dalo doj\u00edt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edm tomu ale br\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnost americk\u00fdch jednotek, proto\u017ee jejich p\u0159\u00edtomnost omezuje Kurdy k jedn\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Bez americk\u00e9 podpory by Kurdov\u00e9 byli jist\u011b ochotn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ke kompromisu a v z\u00e1jmu dlouhodob\u00e9ho m\u00edru by Rusko pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vyv\u00edjelo tlak na S\u00fdrii, aby vy\u0161la vst\u0159\u00edc i Kurd\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Turecko, jak Erdogan nyn\u00ed otev\u0159en\u011b \u0159ekl, tak\u00e9 chce, aby tam USA st\u00e1hly sv\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky, proto\u017ee USA podporuj\u00ed Kurdy zbran\u011bmi, kter\u00e9 Kurdov\u00e9 pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed proti Turecku, spojenci z NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

A Rusko tak\u00e9 u\u017e roky po\u017eaduje, aby USA ukon\u010dily neleg\u00e1ln\u00ed okupaci \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed suver\u00e9nn\u00edho st\u00e1tu S\u00fdrie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Turecko, Rusko a S\u00fdrie jsou zjevn\u011b o p\u00e1r krok\u016f v z\u00e1kulis\u00ed, proto\u017ee i kdy\u017e maj\u00ed st\u00e1le odli\u0161n\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy, v\u0161ichni se shoduj\u00ed, \u017ee pokud m\u00e1 b\u00fdt v regionu dosa\u017eeno m\u00edru, mus\u00ed se USA st\u00e1hnout.\u00a0A skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Erdogan nyn\u00ed pova\u017euje sch\u016fzku s Asadem za mo\u017enou, jsou zcela nov\u00e9 t\u00f3ny, kter\u00e9 tak\u00e9 ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee v z\u00e1kulis\u00ed budou lid\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b v\u00edce nap\u0159ed, ne\u017e bylo ofici\u00e1ln\u011b ozn\u00e1meno.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro Erdogana by to byl dom\u00e1c\u00ed politick\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch, kter\u00fd do voleb pot\u0159ebuje.\u00a0Pro S\u00fdrii by to byla p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost kone\u010dn\u011b znovu z\u00edskat kontrolu nad kurdsk\u00fdmi oblastmi.\u00a0Pro Rusko by ka\u017ed\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed proti USA bylo d\u016fvodem k oslav\u011b.\u00a0A Kurdov\u00e9 by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b z\u00edskali v S\u00fdrii v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed autonomii a kone\u010dn\u011b m\u00edr.<\/span><\/p>\n

Anal\u00fdza agentury TASS tak\u00e9 uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee Kurdov\u00e9 jsou v z\u00e1sad\u011b p\u0159ipraveni znovu \u017e\u00edt pod Asadovou vl\u00e1dou.\u00a0TASS napsal o postoji Kurd\u016f:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201ePodle kurdsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1stupce je v t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi pro S\u00fdrii kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed ekonomick\u00e1 integrace.\u00a0„Kurdov\u00e9 maj\u00ed ropn\u00e9 bohatstv\u00ed, vodn\u00ed zdroje a ko\u0161e chleba, kter\u00e9 pat\u0159\u00ed v\u0161em Sy\u0159an\u016fm a mus\u00ed b\u00fdt spravedliv\u011b rozd\u011bleny,“ zd\u016fraznil.\u00a0\u201eSouhlas\u00edme s t\u00edm a chceme co nejd\u0159\u00edve pomoci na\u0161im bratr\u016fm ve zbytku zem\u011b, kte\u0159\u00ed nyn\u00ed trp\u00ed kriz\u00ed a sankcemi.\u201c<\/em>
\nPodle experta na S\u00fdrii Al Halabiho kurdsk\u00e9mu veden\u00ed dominuj\u00ed politici, kte\u0159\u00ed v\u011b\u0159\u00ed \u017ee dohoda se S\u00fdri\u00ed je nevyhnuteln\u00e1 uznat Dama\u0161ek, ale jsou i tac\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed se ozna\u010duj\u00ed za \u201enejv\u011brn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00e1tele Ameriky\u201c a br\u00e1n\u00ed dialogu se syrskou vl\u00e1dou a obchodu mezi ob\u011bma stranami.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Otev\u0159enou tak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka, kdy se prezidenti Turecka, Ruska a S\u00fdrie sejdou a jak tito t\u0159i pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed dostat USA ze S\u00fdrie.\u00a0Po sta\u017een\u00ed americk\u00fdch jednotek se zd\u00e1, \u017ee m\u00edr je na dosah.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thomas R\u00f6per<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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Tureck\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva proti Kurd\u016fm na severu S\u00fdrie se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt Erdoganov\u00fdm chytr\u00fdm tahem, kter\u00fd by…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":13908,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[56,147,55],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19815"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19815"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19815\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}