{"id":19564,"date":"2022-12-12T07:07:01","date_gmt":"2022-12-12T06:07:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=19564"},"modified":"2022-12-12T07:07:01","modified_gmt":"2022-12-12T06:07:01","slug":"zbynek-fiala-dolar-v-klestich","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/12\/12\/zbynek-fiala-dolar-v-klestich\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Dolar v kle\u0161t\u00edch"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Z\u00e1plava americk\u00e9 m\u011bny, kterou tvo\u0159\u00ed zejm\u00e9na bezstarostn\u00e9 zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed obchodn\u00edch schodk\u016f USA, se za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 m\u011bnit v nebezpe\u010dnou ba\u017einu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Dv\u011b ud\u00e1losti za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed ot\u0159\u00e1sat v\u00edrou v dolar. Dohody \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Si \u0164in-pchinga b\u011bhem jeho cesty do Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie a za dal\u0161\u00edmi p\u0159edstaviteli zem\u00ed Z\u00e1livu obsahuj\u00ed tak\u00e9 mo\u017enost vylou\u010dit dolar z obchod\u016f s arabskou ropou a plynem na \u0161anghajsk\u00e9 burze. Nahradily by jej \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 j\u00fcany. Ale to by byla zat\u00edm men\u0161inov\u00e1 operace. Zato dolarov\u00e1 ba\u017eina, o kter\u00e9 informovala Banka pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vypo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed BIS (Bank of International Settlements, \u201ecentr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank\u201c) je n\u00e1sobn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e HDP Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/p>\n

Tahle hlubok\u00e1 ba\u017eina, na kterou BIS upozor\u0148uje, je nav\u00edc pouh\u00fdm okem neviditeln\u00e1, nenajdete ji v bilanc\u00edch bank. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed ji odhady zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed instituce, kter\u00e1 je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejinformovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed o tom, co se ve finan\u010dn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b odehr\u00e1v\u00e1. Je tak schopna dopo\u010d\u00edtat nebo aspo\u0148 kvalifikovan\u011b odhadnout z\u00e1vazky ulo\u017een\u00e9 mimo bankovn\u00ed v\u00fdkazy. Jsou odhadov\u00e1ny na 65 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f. Pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed: Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty maj\u00ed HDP 28 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f a cel\u00fd sv\u011bt vyprodukuje za rok zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eby za stovku bilion\u016f dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

Tyto skryt\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky v hodnot\u011b dvou t\u0159etin ro\u010dn\u00ed celosv\u011btov\u00e9 produkce poch\u00e1zej\u00ed ze swapov\u00fdch operac\u00ed, deriv\u00e1t\u016f, ve kter\u00fdch jde o to, kter\u00e1 strana l\u00e9pe odhadne v\u00fdvoj kurzu m\u011bny nebo \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Jednoduch\u00fd v\u00fdklad, co je to swap: Pokud m\u00e1te platit v korun\u00e1ch, ale p\u0159\u00edjmy m\u00e1te v dolarech, m\u016f\u017eete si ty povinnosti vym\u011bnit s jinou bankou, kter\u00e1 naopak dost\u00e1v\u00e1 koruny, ale vypl\u00e1cet m\u00e1 dolary. Na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku si ty \u010d\u00e1stky vz\u00e1jemn\u011b prohod\u00edte \u2013 a na konci roku znovu, v\u017edy ve stejn\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161i.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e jste ve smlouv\u011b o swapu vym\u011bnili sv\u016fj korunov\u00fd hotovostn\u00ed tok za dolary a dolar oslabil, v korun\u00e1ch trat\u00edte. Dostanete zp\u00e1tky stejn\u011b dolar\u016f, ale maj\u00ed hodnotu men\u0161\u00edho mno\u017estv\u00ed korun. Co\u017e se mimochodem te\u010f d\u011blo, ale o \u010cesko nejde. Jde o p\u0159ipom\u00ednku obecn\u00e9ho charakteru finan\u010dn\u00edch obchod\u016f, na kter\u00fdch jedni vyd\u011blaj\u00ed a druz\u00ed to zaplat\u00ed. V\u011bt\u0161ina deriv\u00e1t\u016f se z\u00e1rove\u0148 op\u00edr\u00e1 o velkou \u00fav\u011brovou p\u00e1ku, kter\u00e1 zn\u00e1sobuje zisky, ale stejn\u011b r\u00e1zn\u011b funguje i v opa\u010dn\u00e9m sm\u011bru, kdy\u017e zn\u00e1sob\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty. A to pr\u00e1v\u011b hroz\u00ed, v rozsahu, kter\u00fd nazna\u010dilo ono astronomick\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo z BIS.<\/p>\n

Ne\u017e se k t\u011bm swap\u016fm dostaneme podrobn\u011bji, pod\u00edvejme se nap\u0159ed, pro\u010d d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odhady kurz\u016f a sazeb selh\u00e1vaj\u00ed. V\u0161echny z\u00e1kladn\u00ed trendy jsou toti\u017e n\u00e1hle postaveny na hlavu. Vy\u0161um\u011bl p\u0159\u00edkaz doby, kter\u00fd m\u011bl v\u00e1hu pravdy bo\u017e\u00ed, \u017ee jedin\u00fd parametr, kter\u00fd o v\u0161em rozhoduje, je maximalizace zisku, schopnost stla\u010dit n\u00e1klady nalezen\u00edm toho nejlacin\u011bj\u0161\u00edho m\u00edsta pro danou pracovn\u00ed operaci kdekoliv ve sv\u011bt\u011b. Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edkaz se m\u011bn\u00ed a nahrazuje jej resilience, schopnost odol\u00e1vat cenov\u00fdm ot\u0159es\u016fm a p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00fdch vazeb. Dodavatele rad\u011bji zdvojn\u00e1sob\u00edm, i kdy\u017e ten druh\u00fd je n\u011bjak\u00fd \u010das nav\u00edc. Nebo si to ud\u011bl\u00e1m s\u00e1m. Je to dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ale m\u00e1m to pod kontrolou. Horizont\u00e1ln\u00ed integraci nahrazuje integrace vertik\u00e1ln\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Nejsou to jedin\u00e9 zm\u011bny. \u00daroky, kter\u00e9 si zvykly na pobyt kolem nuly, najednou rostou a znehodnocuj\u00ed star\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky. Energetick\u00e1 krize dramaticky zved\u00e1 v\u00fdrobn\u00ed n\u00e1klady a pot\u00e1p\u00ed prvn\u00ed ob\u011bti. Pokusy trestat Rusko a izolovat \u010c\u00ednu se obracej\u00ed proti p\u016fvodc\u016fm. Globalizace se rozpad\u00e1, nap\u0159ed kv\u016fli pandemii, potom kv\u016fli v\u00e1lce, ale po celou dobu tak\u00e9 kv\u016fli nov\u00fdm technologi\u00edm, kter\u00e9 ohro\u017euj\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bze minulosti. Digitalizace po\u017e\u00edr\u00e1 pracovn\u00ed m\u00edsta. Velk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed p\u016fdu pod nohama v procesu decentralizace, kdy jim konkuruj\u00ed sme\u010dky men\u0161\u00edch.<\/p>\n

St\u00e1ty a centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky zachra\u0148uj\u00ed situaci obrovsk\u00fdmi fisk\u00e1ln\u00edmi stimuly, sv\u011bt se top\u00ed v pen\u011bz\u00edch. Ale top\u00ed se jen o n\u011bco v\u00edc, proto\u017ee neoliber\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku ovl\u00e1dla od 80. let p\u0159ehnan\u00e1 financializace, tak\u017ee dnes jen 15 procent toho, co projde rukama investi\u010dn\u00edch bank\u00e9\u0159\u016f p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e9 investice do n\u011b\u010deho nov\u00e9ho. Zbytek je obrazn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno p\u0159ehazov\u00e1n\u00ed cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edrk\u016f z jedn\u00e9 hromady na druhou. V\u00fdraz \u201einvestice\u201c tak znamen\u00e1 hlavn\u011b spekulativn\u00ed obchody s t\u00edm, co u\u017e je, s existuj\u00edc\u00edmi akciemi a dluhopisy.<\/p>\n

Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st extr\u00e9mn\u00ed masy pen\u011bz v ob\u011bhu vznik\u00e1 z obchodn\u00edch schodk\u016f Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Vy dod\u00e1te zbo\u017e\u00ed a oni v\u00e1s odm\u011bn\u00ed p\u00e1r klepnut\u00edmi do kl\u00e1vesnice. Nov\u00e9 dolary, kter\u00fdmi jakoby plat\u00ed na v\u00e1\u0161 \u00fa\u010det, vytvo\u0159\u00ed pouh\u00fdm \u0161\u0165ouchnut\u00edm prstem. Proud zahrani\u010dn\u00edho zbo\u017e\u00ed soustavn\u011b vym\u011b\u0148ovan\u00e9ho v USA prakticky za nic je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nep\u0159edstaviteln\u00fd. Obchodn\u00ed schodek Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f roku 2021 dos\u00e1hl 845 miliard dolar\u016f. To je rekord, ale posledn\u00edch dvacet let tento deficit prakticky ne\u0161el pod p\u016fl bilionu dolar\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b.<\/p>\n

\u010cesko by si muselo ty dolary vyd\u011blat, jinak m\u00e1 s obchodn\u00edm schodkem probl\u00e9m. Ale USA jsou v jin\u00e9 situaci. Dolar je sv\u011btov\u00e1 rezervn\u00ed m\u011bna, mohou si jich natisknout, kolik je napadne. St\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f je pova\u017eov\u00e1n za bezpe\u010dnou investici. Probl\u00e9m by vznikl a\u017e v okam\u017eiku, kdyby byla role dolaru jako univerz\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u011bny n\u011bjak ohro\u017eena. Pak by se chud\u00e1ci Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 nedoplatili.<\/p>\n

Kask\u00e1du rizik, kter\u00e9 z toho pramen\u00ed, lze pr\u00e1vem ozna\u010dit jako vyno\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed se novou finan\u010dn\u00ed hrozbu. V\u00fdraz pou\u017eil Wall Street Journal. Za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 t\u00edm, \u017ee nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00ed spr\u00e1vci aktiv jako jsou penzijn\u00ed fondy a poji\u0161\u0165ovny, investovali do dolar\u016f tak\u00e9 proto, \u017ee nab\u00edzely cestu ke slu\u0161n\u00e9mu \u00farokov\u00e9mu v\u00fdnosu. Zat\u00edmco kr\u00e1tk\u00fd konec v\u00fdnosov\u00e9 k\u0159ivky v USA byl n\u00ed\u017ee ne\u017e jinde ve sv\u011bt\u011b, dlouh\u00fd konec m\u00ed\u0159il v\u00fd\u0161e. Kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 p\u016fj\u010dky tak mohly v\u00fdhodn\u011b financovat dlouhodob\u00e9 investice. T\u00edm ov\u0161em vznikl nesoulad jak ve lh\u016ft\u00e1ch, tak v m\u011bn\u00e1ch. A p\u0159esn\u011b tohle se dalo \u0159e\u0161it swapy.<\/p>\n

Forex swap byl pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n jak pro zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed rizik likvidity, tak protistrany, m\u011bl ta rizika sni\u017eovat. Nevstupoval do obchod\u016f p\u0159\u00edmo, jen jako hedging, bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed r\u00e1mec, proto nebyl vykazov\u00e1n v \u00fa\u010detn\u00edch bilanc\u00edch bank, ve sloupc\u00edch pohled\u00e1vek a z\u00e1vazk\u016f. Jen\u017ee kdy\u017e se to za\u010dne hroutit, mus\u00ed se do t\u011bch z\u00e1vazk\u016f s\u00e1hnout. A to se pr\u00e1v\u011b d\u011bje, v\u00fdnosov\u00e1 k\u0159ivka USA obr\u00e1tila. Inflace \u017eene kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 sazby nahoru, ale nad\u011bje, \u017ee odezn\u00ed, tla\u010d\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9 sazby n\u00ed\u017ee. V\u00fdnos z dlouhodob\u00fdch operac\u00ed u\u017e proto nedok\u00e1\u017ee uhradit n\u00e1klady na po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed zdroj\u016f. Za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed tu vznikat velk\u00e9 dluhy, ale proto\u017ee to nen\u00ed v bilanc\u00edch, nikdo nev\u00ed p\u0159esn\u011b jak velk\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Ur\u010ditou zku\u0161enost z toho, co se m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t, m\u00e1me z Brit\u00e1nie, kde libra za\u010dala v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed klesat v panice p\u0159ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdmi a v\u00fddajov\u00fdmi pl\u00e1ny premi\u00e9rky Trussov\u00e9. K tomu se p\u0159idal prudk\u00fd r\u016fst \u00farok\u016f u nov\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f, kter\u00fd znehodnotil ty star\u00e9. Za\u010dalo to b\u00fdt p\u0159es m\u00edru, a tak investi\u010dn\u00ed banky, kter\u00e9 kryly penzijn\u00edm fond\u016fm m\u011bnov\u00e9 a \u00farokov\u00e9 riziko, za\u010daly klienty bombardovat nal\u00e9hav\u00fdmi telefon\u00e1ty, a\u0165 rozd\u00edl hodnoty rychle doplat\u00ed. Ale tolik nikdo nem\u011bl. Britsk\u00e9 penzijn\u00ed fondy by lehly, kdyby je nezachr\u00e1nila vl\u00e1da a centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka.<\/p>\n

Britsk\u00e9 fondy, stejn\u011b jako americk\u00e9 banky ve finan\u010dn\u00ed krizi 2008 m\u011bly kliku, \u0159\u00edtily se k zemi doma, pomoc byla nabl\u00edzku. Jen\u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina dolarov\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f koluje n\u011bkde po sv\u011bt\u011b a nejsou v kompetenci dohledu Fed, proto jim Fed taky nem\u016f\u017ee pomoct. Nem\u016f\u017ee uplatnit svoji funkci v\u011b\u0159itele posledn\u00ed instance. Plat\u00ed to i kdy\u017e se jedn\u00e1 o zahrani\u010dn\u00ed investice do st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f USA v americk\u00fdch bank\u00e1ch. Investor je cizinec, a\u0165 si \u0161kemr\u00e1 u sv\u00fdch.<\/p>\n

Znovu se v\u0161ak vra\u0165me k objemu p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9ho rizika dolarov\u00fdch swap\u016f mimo bilance. \u201eProto\u017ee Fed nem\u016f\u017ee vykoupit dluhy takov\u00e9ho rozsahu ani k tomu p\u0159inutit da\u0148ov\u00e9 poplatn\u00edky, sv\u011bt m\u016f\u017ee pouze doufat, \u017ee se poda\u0159\u00ed tyto swapov\u00e9 pozice n\u011bjak v klidu vypo\u0159\u00e1dat, a\u017e se centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky vr\u00e1t\u00ed k m\u00e9n\u011b abnorm\u00e1ln\u00ed politice,\u201c p\u00ed\u0161e odevzdan\u011b Wall Street Journal a prov\u00e1z\u00ed to nad\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee tahle \u201ebomba forexov\u00fdch swap\u016f nevybuchne\u201c.<\/p>\n

Nad\u011bje um\u00edr\u00e1 posledn\u00ed, prav\u00ed star\u00e9 moudro, za kter\u00fdm se v\u0161ak skr\u00fdv\u00e1 p\u0159edpoklad, \u017ee nap\u0159ed mus\u00ed um\u0159\u00edt v\u0161ichni ostatn\u00ed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/strong><\/div>\n
\u017durnalista, v minulosti dlouholet\u00fd \u0161\u00e9fredaktor \u010dasopisu Ekonom.<\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Z\u00e1plava americk\u00e9 m\u011bny, kterou tvo\u0159\u00ed zejm\u00e9na bezstarostn\u00e9 zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed obchodn\u00edch schodk\u016f USA, se za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 m\u011bnit v…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9162,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,1324,59],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19564"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19564"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19564\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9162"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19564"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19564"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19564"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}