{"id":19395,"date":"2022-12-09T01:08:17","date_gmt":"2022-12-09T00:08:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=19395"},"modified":"2022-12-08T17:17:53","modified_gmt":"2022-12-08T16:17:53","slug":"jiri-paroubek-vlada-prihlizi-padu-ceske-ekonomiky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/12\/09\/jiri-paroubek-vlada-prihlizi-padu-ceske-ekonomiky\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Vl\u00e1da p\u0159ihl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed p\u00e1du \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u010cesk\u00e1 ekonomika, jak jsem p\u0159edv\u00eddal ve sv\u00fdch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch u\u017e p\u0159ed \u0159adou m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, pad\u00e1 ve IV. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed do recese.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo meziro\u010dn\u00edho poklesu maloobchodn\u00edho obratu je p\u0159es 9 %. Tak\u017ee jedna z d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch komponent, kter\u00e9 byly v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch letech mj. tak\u00e9 nositelem r\u016fstu HDP, pad\u00e1. Souvis\u00ed to samoz\u0159ejm\u011b s poklesem re\u00e1ln\u00fdch mezd obyvatelstva, kter\u00fd je podle \u010cS\u00da bl\u00edzk\u00fd 10% a co je je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed, pro statis\u00edce lid\u00ed je ten pokles re\u00e1ln\u00fdch mezd ve skute\u010dnosti je\u0161t\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed (j\u00e1 se domn\u00edv\u00e1m, \u017ee pokles re\u00e1ln\u00fdch mezd je sp\u00ed\u0161e n\u011bkde mezi 12-15 %). Hovo\u0159\u00ed se a\u017e o 20% poklesu re\u00e1ln\u00e9 mzdy pro n\u011bkter\u00e9 profesn\u00ed kategorie. To u\u017e je opravdu katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edsla \u010desk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu nejsou opticky tak tragick\u00e1. Doch\u00e1z\u00ed zat\u00edm k n\u00e1r\u016fstu pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00fdroby, a to d\u00edky p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9 srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u011b covidov\u00e9ho roku 2021. Index obchodn\u00edch mana\u017eer\u016f (PMI) ale nezadr\u017eiteln\u011b kles\u00e1. Pr\u00e1v\u011b tento index informuje o tom, \u017ee kles\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka po v\u00fdrobc\u00edch v \u010desk\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu. A to je velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9.<\/p>\n

V\u0161echny faktory, kter\u00e9 vl\u00e1da m\u016f\u017ee do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry, ale samoz\u0159ejm\u011b v rozd\u00edln\u00e9m \u010dasov\u00e9m r\u00e1mci ovlivnit, zde z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed. M\u00e1m na mysli zaprv\u00e9 konflikt na Ukrajin\u011b, kde \u010desk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da, tedy vl\u00e1da ze zem\u011b t. \u010d. p\u0159edsedaj\u00edc\u00ed Evropsk\u00e9 unii, d\u011bl\u00e1 v\u0161e pro to, aby pomohla eskalaci v\u00e1lky a v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9mu \u0161tvan\u00ed. A ned\u011bl\u00e1 nic pro ukon\u010den\u00ed tohoto zk\u00e1zonosn\u00e9ho konfliktu. P\u0159itom skon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky je cestou k poklesu cen komodit, kter\u00e9 zejm\u00e9na po zah\u00e1jen\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b akcelerovaly do nev\u00eddan\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161e. M\u00e1m na mysli ceny energetick\u00fdch surovin, pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch kov\u016f i zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch produkt\u016f. Ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho konfliktu by d\u0159\u00edve nebo pozd\u011bji vedlo k poklesu cen t\u011bchto surovin a\u017e na p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dnou \u00farove\u0148. \u201eExperti\u201c, kte\u0159\u00ed \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee tomu tak nebude, nevych\u00e1zej\u00ed z reality existence z\u00e1kona nab\u00eddky a popt\u00e1vky v tr\u017en\u00ed ekonomice. Je to zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed, ale pr\u00e1v\u011b tito \u201eexperti\u201c se jindy hl\u00e1s\u00ed jednozna\u010dn\u011b k pravicov\u00fdm hodnot\u00e1m.<\/p>\n

Zadruh\u00e9, premi\u00e9r Fiala p\u0159ed celou \u0159adou m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f sd\u011blil \u010desk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejnosti v dramaticky p\u0159edem ohla\u0161ovan\u00e9m TV projevu, \u017ee st\u00e1t m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159istoupit k zest\u00e1tn\u011bn\u00ed minoritn\u00edch akcion\u00e1\u0159\u016f \u010cEZu. To je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b proces, kter\u00fd by trval celou \u0159adu m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. Ale pokud vl\u00e1da chce dramaticky sn\u00ed\u017eit ceny elektrick\u00e9 energie, mus\u00ed se v tomto sm\u011bru kone\u010dn\u011b pohnout. U\u017e zah\u00e1jen\u00ed tohoto procesu zest\u00e1tn\u011bn\u00ed minoritn\u00edch akcion\u00e1\u0159\u016f za n\u00e1hradu, m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k m\u00edrn\u00e9mu poklesu cen elektrick\u00e9 energie. Pokud bude jedin\u00fdm vlastn\u00edkem spole\u010dnosti \u010cEZ st\u00e1t, mus\u00ed d\u00e1t t\u00e9to firm\u011b zad\u00e1n\u00ed prod\u00e1vat elektrickou energii za cenu re\u00e1ln\u00fdch, tedy n\u00edzk\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f plus m\u00edrn\u00fd zisk. A jen p\u0159ebytek t\u00e9to energie (to je ale zhruba \u010dtvrtina ve\u0161ker\u00e9 v \u010cesku vyroben\u00e9 energie) prod\u00e1vat p\u0159es lipskou energetickou burzu. To by \u010cEZu d\u00e1valo st\u00e1le velmi slu\u0161n\u00e9 tr\u017eby. Ale samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nikoliv takov\u00fd zisk, jak\u00fd \u010cEZ o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce (kolem 70 mld. korun).<\/p>\n

Nelze se zbavit dojmu, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 pravicov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da d\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ednost vysok\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edjm\u016fm pro st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det z dividend \u010cEZu, kter\u00e9 plynou ze zbyte\u010dn\u011b nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdch cen elektrick\u00e9 energie pro dom\u00e1cnosti i pro podnikatelsk\u00fd sektor.<\/p>\n

A pokud by se man\u00e9vr se zest\u00e1tn\u011bn\u00edm Spole\u010dnosti \u010cEZ povedl, tak u\u017e by nebylo pot\u0159eba u\u010dinit ani za t\u0159et\u00ed, a tedy kompletn\u011b odej\u00edt z lipsk\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 burzy. Prost\u011b proto, \u017ee by tam mohla \u010cesk\u00e1 republika prod\u00e1vat p\u0159ebytky vyroben\u00e9 elektrick\u00e9 energie.<\/p>\n

Pokud by se poda\u0159ilo razantn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eit cestou zest\u00e1tn\u011bn\u00ed \u010cEZu cenu elektrick\u00e9 energie a po m\u00edrov\u00e9m uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b i cenu plynu a ropy, okam\u017eit\u011b by poklesly jak v\u00fddaje \u010desk\u00fdch dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, tak v posledn\u00edm roce obrovsky nar\u016fstaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fddaje \u010desk\u00fdch firem, kter\u00e9 \u010din\u00ed \u010desk\u00e9 fin\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdrobky na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch trz\u00edch m\u00e1lo konkurenceschopn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

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\u010cesk\u00e1 ekonomika, jak jsem p\u0159edv\u00eddal ve sv\u00fdch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch u\u017e p\u0159ed \u0159adou m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, pad\u00e1 ve IV….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17506,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,2145,29,3055,99],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19395"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19395"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19395\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17506"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19395"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19395"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19395"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}