{"id":18519,"date":"2022-11-21T01:05:51","date_gmt":"2022-11-21T00:05:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=18519"},"modified":"2022-11-20T16:52:51","modified_gmt":"2022-11-20T15:52:51","slug":"zbynek-fiala-kdo-za-to-muze","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/11\/21\/zbynek-fiala-kdo-za-to-muze\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Kdo za to m\u016f\u017ee?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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A\u017e bude v ob\u00fdv\u00e1ku klendra do modra, m\u016f\u017eeme se t\u011b\u0161it na z\u00e1van z tepl\u00fdch vod Pacifiku, a p\u0159itom t\u0159aslav\u011b p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161let: Za co v\u0161echno vlastn\u011b m\u016f\u017ee \u010dlov\u011bk jako druh a my \u010de\u0161t\u00ed troubov\u00e9 zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165? A nakonec, kdo konkr\u00e9tn\u011b?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ve chv\u00edli, kdy p\u0159est\u00e1v\u00e1 do Evropy proudit rusk\u00fd plyn, chyst\u00e1 se sem studen\u00fd vzduch z v\u00fdchodu, varuje evropsk\u00fd meteorologick\u00fd p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed syst\u00e9m Copernicus. Prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st zimy m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt tvrd\u0161\u00ed, a\u017e bl\u00ed\u017ee k jaru by to mohlo b\u00fdt teplej\u0161\u00ed. Snad to vydr\u017e\u00edme, pokud se d\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edm v\u011b\u0159it.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/climate.copernicus.eu\/seasonal-forecasts<\/a><\/p>\n

Spory jsou o to, za co m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159\u00edroda a za co \u010dlov\u011bk. P\u0159\u00edroda je v p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edch reprezentov\u00e1na ne\u010dekan\u011b Je\u017e\u00ed\u0161kem, p\u0159esn\u011bji atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fdm jevem ozna\u010dovan\u00fdm El Ni\u0148o, kter\u00fd ovliv\u0148uje teplotu v Pacifiku od pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Peru a\u017e k Indon\u00e9sii. \u0160\u00ed\u0159eji ENSO, nebo\u0165 je tu souvislost El Ni\u0148o (EN) s ji\u017en\u00ed oscilac\u00ed (SO), tedy se st\u0159\u00edd\u00e1n\u00edm tepl\u00e9 a studen\u00e9 povrchov\u00e9 vody ve v\u00fdchodn\u00edm a st\u0159edn\u00edm Tich\u00e9m oce\u00e1nu ji\u017en\u011b od rovn\u00edku. Je to jev cyklick\u00fd, byl tu i v hlubok\u00e9 minulosti. Pokud by se El Ni\u0148o probudil na za\u010d\u00e1tku jara, jak n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed, mohl by n\u00e1m p\u0159in\u00e9st v\u00edce tepla a nejsp\u00ed\u0161 i letn\u00edch veder. Takov\u00e1 p\u0159edstava by n\u00e1s mohla\u00a0zah\u0159\u00e1t v kru\u0161n\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed regulovan\u00e9ho vyt\u00e1p\u011bn\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b l\u00e9pe ne\u017e druh\u00fd svetr.<\/p>\n

Ne\u017e to nastane, bude to hor\u0161\u00ed. U\u017e t\u0159et\u00edm rokem toti\u017e \u0159\u00e1d\u00ed Je\u017e\u00ed\u0161k\u016fv prot\u011bj\u0161ek \u017eensk\u00e9ho pohlav\u00ed (La Ni\u0148a). Origin\u00e1ln\u00ed Je\u017e\u00ed\u0161ek vody u Peru ochlazuje, st\u0159\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed hol\u010dina je otepluje. Z historie jsou v\u0161ak zn\u00e1my p\u0159\u00edpady, kdy genderov\u00e1 p\u0159esmy\u010dka La Ni\u0148a n\u00e1hle pro\u0161la zp\u011btnou tranvestic\u00ed na El Ni\u0148o.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/mkweather.com\/2022-2023-forecast-chances-for-el-nino\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed n\u00e1stup zimy, m\u00e1 b\u00fdt ve St\u0159edn\u00ed Evrop\u011b lehce tvrd\u0161\u00ed, ale t\u0159eba Kanadu a sever USA \u010dek\u00e1 mocn\u00e1 mrazov\u00e1 vlna. Z\u00e1padn\u011b od americk\u00e9ho kontinentu se usadila obrovsk\u00e1 a hodn\u011b stabiln\u00ed tlakov\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161e a ta usm\u011br\u0148uje na pevninu arktick\u00fd vzduch, kter\u00fd se vylil mimo domovsk\u00fd region. Mrazy i p\u0159\u00edvaly sn\u011bhu mohou b\u00fdt rekordn\u00ed, hl\u00e1s\u00ed web, kter\u00fd se na tyto jevy specializuje.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.severe-weather.eu\/global-weather\/winter-season-2022-2023-historic-storm-cold-snow-great-lakes-buffalo-mk\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Arktick\u00fd mr\u00e1z se vyl\u00e9v\u00e1 z hlubok\u00e9ho Severu kv\u016fli ochabuj\u00edc\u00edmu v\u00edru stratosf\u00e9rick\u00fdch \u201etryskov\u00fdch v\u011btr\u016f\u201c\u00a0jet streams<\/em>), kter\u00e9 jej dr\u017eely na sv\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b, a toto ochabov\u00e1n\u00ed klimatick\u00e9 ohr\u00e1dky kolem p\u00f3l\u016f u\u017e je d\u00edlo glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed vlivem \u010dlov\u011bka. Nejdivo\u010dej\u0161\u00ed podobu tot\u00e1ln\u00edho rozhozen\u00ed mechanismu rovnom\u011brn\u00e9ho rozd\u011blov\u00e1n\u00ed energie kolem Zem\u011b bylo leto\u0161n\u00ed lednov\u00e9 prudk\u00e9 oteplen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmo na severn\u00edm p\u00f3lu, nebo\u0165 pol\u00e1rn\u00ed v\u00edr se rozpadl na dva a do centra Arktidy zam\u00ed\u0159il hork\u00fd vzduch z jihu.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.severe-weather.eu\/long-range-2\/winter-season-2022-2023-forecast-october-update-united-states-canada-europe-fa\/<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/yaleclimateconnections.org\/<\/a><\/p>\n

P\u0159ipomn\u011blo n\u00e1m to, \u017ee klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny nejsou ani tak o tom, \u017ee je tepleji, ale \u017ee p\u0159est\u00e1vaj\u00ed fungovat klimatick\u00e9 mechanismy, na kter\u00e9 se adaptovala na\u0161e civilizace a obklopuj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edroda. Epizoda t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 letn\u00edho tepla na p\u00f3lu uprost\u0159ed zimy nazna\u010dila, \u017ee do\u010dkat se m\u016f\u017eeme \u010dehokoliv drsn\u00e9ho, na co nejsme p\u0159ipraveni. Ochabuj\u00edc\u00ed\u00a0jet streams<\/em>\u00a0v\u00e1znou i p\u0159i pokusech o n\u00e1pravu, tak\u017ee p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 extr\u00e9my trvaj\u00ed stra\u0161n\u011b dlouho.<\/p>\n

O vlivu \u010dlov\u011bka na klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny u\u017e nen\u00ed mezi v\u011bdci pochyb. T\u00e9matu se v\u011bnuje tolik pracovi\u0161\u0165 s tak pestr\u00fdmi metodami a c\u00edli, \u017ee n\u011bjak\u00e9 spiknut\u00ed \u201elovc\u016f grant\u016f\u201c, jak je to u n\u00e1s prezentov\u00e1no, je zpr\u00e1vou sp\u00ed\u0161e o specificky \u010desk\u00e9 situaci ne\u017e o okoln\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b. P\u0159esn\u011bji, 97 % klimatick\u00fdch v\u011bdc\u016f dosp\u011blo k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee jsme sv\u011bdky glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed zp\u016fsoben\u00e9ho \u010dlov\u011bkem. P\u00ed\u0161e se o tom v nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed recenzovan\u00e9 studii skupiny autor\u016f veden\u00e9 Anthony Leiserowitzem z centra klimatick\u00e9 komunikace na fakult\u011b \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed presti\u017en\u00ed Yaleov\u011b univerzity v New Haven ve st\u00e1t\u011b Connecticut.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/yaleclimateconnections.org\/2022\/11\/new-reports-spell-out-climate-urgency-shortfalls-needed-actions\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Obraz \u010desk\u00e9ho ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed o klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn\u00e1ch najdeme v map\u00e1ch mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho v\u00fdzkumu\u00a0International Public Opinion on Climate Change 2022<\/em>\u00a0ze stejn\u00e9 d\u00edlny plus\u00a0Data for Good at Meta<\/em>, kter\u00fd byl publikov\u00e1n na egyptsk\u00e9 konferenci COP27.<\/p>\n

Tato studie n\u00e1m pom\u016f\u017ee osv\u011btlit zlobn\u00e9 vystoupen\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00edch autor\u016f proti \u010desk\u00fdm student\u016fm, kte\u0159\u00ed si dovolili st\u00e1vkovat za klima. Odpov\u011b\u010f najdeme na stran\u011b 10 na mapce shrnuj\u00edc\u00ed touto grafickou technikou odpov\u011bdi respondent\u016f ze 192 sledovan\u00fdch zem\u00ed a \u00fazem\u00ed. Jedn\u00e1 se o souhlas s tvrzen\u00edm: Klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny po\u0161kod\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed generace. Zat\u00edmco ve \u0160pan\u011blsku, Francii, a dokonce i Ma\u010farsku, nach\u00e1z\u00edme nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed m\u00edru souhlasu, v \u010cesku je nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed a je srovnateln\u00e1 jen s Jemenem. Av\u0161ak klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn se neboj\u00ed ani sou\u010dasn\u00e1 \u010desk\u00e1 generace. S tvrzen\u00edm, \u017ee klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny mi osobn\u011b u\u0161kod\u00ed, u n\u00e1s souhlas\u00ed jen 3 procenta dot\u00e1zan\u00fdch, \u00fapln\u011b nejm\u00ed\u0148 ze v\u0161ech. Asi proto, \u017ee torn\u00e1da, povodn\u011b \u010di sucha s klimatick\u00fdmi zm\u011bnami nespojujeme. M\u016f\u017ee za n\u011b Putin (a Babi\u0161, samoz\u0159ejm\u011b).<\/p>\n

https:\/\/climatecommunication.yale.edu\/publications\/international-public-opinion-on-climate-change-2022\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Jak to vzniklo, \u017ee \u010cR je na \u0161pici odm\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed? Mohli bychom samoz\u0159ejm\u011b analyzovat postoje \u010desk\u00fdch prezident\u016f, ale \u017ee by m\u011bli takov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd vliv? Ur\u010dit\u00e9 nahl\u00e9dnut\u00ed do motivac\u00ed nab\u00edz\u00ed mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b zaj\u00edmav\u00e1 pas\u00e1\u017e o glob\u00e1ln\u00ed uhl\u00edkov\u00e9 nerovnosti v obecn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1v\u011b o nerovnosti ve sv\u011bt\u011b (\u00a0World Inequality Report 2022<\/em>) s autory Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zuckman a editor Lucas Chancel.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/wir2022.wid.world\/<\/a><\/p>\n

S uhl\u00edkov\u00fdmi emisemi je to podobn\u00e9 jako s p\u0159\u00edjmovou nerovnost\u00ed. V glob\u00e1ln\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku vyprodukuje doln\u00edch 50 procent obyvatelstva 1,6 tuny oxidu uhl\u00edku na osobu ro\u010dn\u011b, zat\u00edmco st\u0159edn\u00edch 40 procent (skupina mezi \u010dtvrt\u00fdm a sedm\u00fdm decilem) 6,6 tuny na osobu, horn\u00edch deset procent 31 tun a horn\u00ed procento dokonce 110 tun sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f na osobu ro\u010dn\u011b, \u010dili stokr\u00e1t v\u00edc ne\u017e doln\u00ed polovina lidstva. \u00datok na uhl\u00edk je proto \u00fatokem na n\u011b. Mluv\u00ed se o \u0161kod\u00e1ch a odpov\u011bdnosti, to m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt drah\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 je to tak\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u011b. Americk\u00e1 doln\u00ed polovina spole\u010dnosti vyprodukuje stejn\u011b emis\u00ed jako evropsk\u00fd st\u0159ed (jen \u010dty\u0159i decily kolem st\u0159edu), p\u0159esto\u017ee chud\u00ed Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 jsou dvakr\u00e1t chud\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e o n\u011bco v\u00fd\u0161e situovan\u00ed Evropan\u00e9. Jak se do\u010dteme na stran\u011b 122, tento rozd\u00edl je d\u00e1n hlavn\u011b uhl\u00edkov\u011b intenz\u00edvn\u00edm energetick\u00fdm mixem v USA, kde se uhl\u00edk pod\u00edl\u00ed dvakr\u00e1t v\u00edc na v\u00fdrob\u011b elekt\u0159iny, ne\u017e je tomu v Evrop\u011b. Tak\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 infrastruktura USA je uhl\u00edkov\u011b n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed t\u0159eba kv\u016fli \u0161ir\u0161\u00edmu pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed osobn\u00edch aut, a ta jsou nav\u00edc v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed a \u017e\u00edzniv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Ale evropsk\u00e1 st\u0159edn\u00ed vrstva (tedy on\u011bch st\u0159edn\u00edch 40 procent) zase vyprodukuje o polovinu v\u00edc uhl\u00edku ne\u017e st\u0159edn\u00ed vrstva na D\u00e1ln\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. V\u00fd\u010ditky sm\u011brem k \u010c\u00edn\u011b jsou proto nem\u00edstn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

V \u010dem tedy spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 na\u0161e odli\u0161nost? \u010cesko je zem\u00ed, kde si hrstka nejbohat\u0161\u00edch dok\u00e1\u017ee sv\u00e9 postaven\u00ed dob\u0159e ohl\u00eddat, v tom jsme doopravdy v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00ed. A tak\u00e9 v tom, \u017ee kr\u00e1\u010d\u00edme bok po boku s velk\u00fdm bratrem: Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, n\u00e1\u0161 vzor, a nikdy jinak!<\/p>\n

A\u017e bude v ob\u00fdv\u00e1ku klendra do modra, m\u016f\u017eeme se t\u011b\u0161it na z\u00e1van z tepl\u00fdch vod Pacifiku, a p\u0159itom t\u0159aslav\u011b p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161let: Za co v\u0161echno vlastn\u011b m\u016f\u017ee \u010dlov\u011bk jako druh a my \u010de\u0161t\u00ed troubov\u00e9 zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165? A nakonec, kdo konkr\u00e9tn\u011b?<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n
\u017durnalista, v minulosti dlouholet\u00fd \u0161\u00e9fredaktor \u010dasopisu Ekonom<\/em><\/div>\n
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A\u017e bude v ob\u00fdv\u00e1ku klendra do modra, m\u016f\u017eeme se t\u011b\u0161it na z\u00e1van z tepl\u00fdch vod…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":12025,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[285,29,371],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18519"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18519"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18519\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12025"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18519"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18519"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18519"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}