{"id":18360,"date":"2022-11-18T01:03:54","date_gmt":"2022-11-18T00:03:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=18360"},"modified":"2022-11-17T16:01:37","modified_gmt":"2022-11-17T15:01:37","slug":"gavin-oreilly-perske-jaro-scenar-pro-libyi-a-syrii-se-nyni-odehrava-v-iranu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/11\/18\/gavin-oreilly-perske-jaro-scenar-pro-libyi-a-syrii-se-nyni-odehrava-v-iranu\/","title":{"rendered":"Gavin O’Reilly: \u201ePersk\u00e9 jaro\u201c \u2013 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 pro Libyi a S\u00fdrii se nyn\u00ed odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 v \u00cdr\u00e1nu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u010ctvrte\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159izn\u00e1n\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho poradce pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost a nechvaln\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00e9ho proti\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho agit\u00e1tora Johna Boltona, \u017ee zbran\u011b jsou dod\u00e1v\u00e1ny t\u011bm, kte\u0159\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed posledn\u00ed pokus o zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu proti Teher\u00e1nu, by m\u011blo b\u00fdt mal\u00fdm p\u0159ekvapen\u00edm.<\/strong><\/p>\n

16. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, necel\u00fdch 24 hodin pot\u00e9, co se \u00cdr\u00e1n p\u0159ipojil k \u0160anghajsk\u00e9 organizaci spolupr\u00e1ce – alianci ur\u010den\u00e9 k podpo\u0159e politick\u00e9ho, ekonomick\u00e9ho a vojensk\u00e9ho rozvoje v Eurasii – za\u010daly protesty, zpo\u010d\u00e1tku v reakci na smrt Mahsy Amini, 22let\u00e9ho mlad\u00edka. \u00cdr\u00e1nka, kter\u00e1 n\u00e1hle zem\u0159ela po st\u0159etu s policistkou v Teher\u00e1nu, rychle p\u0159erostla v n\u00e1siln\u00e9 nepokoje, kter\u00e9 rychle zachv\u00e1tily isl\u00e1mskou republiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e1hl\u00e1, n\u00e1siln\u00e1 povaha t\u011bchto nepokoj\u016f a jejich koordinovan\u00e9 pokryt\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edmi m\u00e9dii neslo v\u0161echny znaky barevn\u00e9 revoluce \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 CIA, kter\u00e1 byla pozd\u011bji vyvol\u00e1na zapojen\u00edm Masiha Alinejada, americk\u00e9ho agenta, kter\u00fd d\u0159\u00edve spolupracoval s b\u00fdval\u00fdm americk\u00fdm ministrem zahrani\u010d\u00ed Mikem. Pompeo jako John Bolton, dal\u0161\u00ed dlouholet\u00fd zast\u00e1nce zm\u011bny re\u017eimu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu, byl jako takov\u00fd potvrzen.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti existuje historick\u00fd precedens pro n\u00e1siln\u00e9 svr\u017een\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed.\u00a0V roce 1953 byl tehdej\u0161\u00ed premi\u00e9r Mohammad Mossadegh sesazen v r\u00e1mci operace Ajax, organizovan\u00e9 MI6 a CIA, pot\u00e9, co se rozhodl zn\u00e1rodnit rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby ropy.\u00a0Jeho n\u00e1stupce, Z\u00e1padem podporovan\u00fd \u0161\u00e1h Pahlav\u00ed, byl svr\u017een v roce 1979 v isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 revoluci, kter\u00e1 vid\u011bla, jak se k moci dostal protiamerick\u00fd a antisionistick\u00fd ajatoll\u00e1h Chomejn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Boltonovo p\u0159izn\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee zbran\u011b jsou dod\u00e1v\u00e1ny \u201e\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 opozici\u201c, m\u00e1 v\u0161ak mnohem nov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed historick\u00e9 pozad\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V \u00fanoru 2011 protesty v Libyi po\u017eaduj\u00edc\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed reformu rychle p\u0159erostly v n\u00e1siln\u00e9 nepokoje, kter\u00e9 brzy zachv\u00e1tily africk\u00fd st\u00e1t.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vyzbrojeni zbran\u011bmi poskytnut\u00fdmi CIA a MI6 a chr\u00e1n\u011bni bezletovou z\u00f3nou zavedenou NATO, terorist\u00e9 obsadili zemi b\u011bhem osmi m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.\u00a0V \u0159\u00edjnu t\u00e9ho\u017e roku byl na ulici v Sirte zavra\u017ed\u011bn libyjsk\u00fd v\u016fdce Muammar Kadd\u00e1f\u00ed \u2013 jeho\u017e navrhovan\u00e1 m\u011bna \u201ezlat\u00fd din\u00e1r\u201c podn\u00edtila zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu \u2013 a prom\u011bnil tak jeho kdysi prosperuj\u00edc\u00ed zemi v pustinu bez z\u00e1kon\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

K podobn\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu do\u0161lo tak\u00e9 v S\u00fdrii v b\u0159eznu 2011, kdy terorist\u00e9 vyzbrojen\u00ed USA, Velkou Brit\u00e1ni\u00ed, Izraelem a Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed ovl\u00e1dli velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Arabsk\u00e9 republiky.\u00a0Stalo se tak kv\u016fli tomu, \u017ee Ba\u0161\u00e1r al-Assad v roce 2009 odm\u00edtl umo\u017enit americk\u00e9mu spojenci Kataru vybudovat plynovod p\u0159es jeho zemi, co\u017e by podkopalo jeho vazby s jeho kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm spojencem, Ruskem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na rozd\u00edl od Libye v\u0161ak Dama\u0161ek dok\u00e1zal tomuto pokusu o zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu odol\u00e1vat 11 let, co\u017e umo\u017enilo Asadovi setrvat u moci dodnes.\u00a0Bylo to zp\u016fsobeno v neposledn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b \u00edr\u00e1nskou intervenc\u00ed v \u010dervnu 2013, v n\u00ed\u017e Dama\u0161ek a Teher\u00e1n uzav\u0159ely dohodu o spole\u010dn\u00e9 obran\u011b, a dal\u0161\u00ed ruskou leteckou kampan\u00ed, kter\u00e1 za\u010dala v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2015 \u2013 op\u011bt na \u017e\u00e1dost Dama\u0161ku \u2013 a kter\u00e1 umo\u017enila syrsk\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b z\u00edskat oblasti pro znovuz\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed oblast\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se dostaly pod kontrolu terorist\u016f, jako je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 m\u011bsto Aleppo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zde vstupuje do hry podobnost mezi Liby\u00ed a S\u00fdri\u00ed a t\u00edm, co se v sou\u010dasnosti odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 v \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud by sou\u010dasn\u00e9 nepokoje nakonec eskalovaly v z\u00e1stupnou v\u00e1lku proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, lobby za zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu nepochybn\u011b vyzve k \u201ehumanit\u00e1rn\u00ed intervenci\u201c v libyjsk\u00e9m stylu proti isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republice.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 n\u011bkter\u00e9 z nejpokro\u010dilej\u0161\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, jak\u00fdkoli pokus o uzav\u0159en\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru by nepochybn\u011b vedl k tomu, \u017ee by Teher\u00e1nsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 kapacity byly pou\u017eity proti region\u00e1ln\u00edm spojenc\u016fm Washingtonu, jako je Izrael a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by se z\u00e1stupn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka stala v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed by jeden konflikt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti \u00cdr\u00e1n prok\u00e1zal sv\u00e9 schopnosti v tomto ohledu ji\u017e v lednu 2020, kdy zah\u00e1jil odvetn\u00fd \u00fader proti americk\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u011b v Ain Al-Asad v sousedn\u00edm Ir\u00e1ku v reakci na atent\u00e1t na velitele jednotek Quds Qasema Soleimaniho \u00fatokem dronu.<\/span><\/p>\n

I sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho region\u00e1ln\u00edho konfliktu by se v\u0161ak naplnil d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e se i vlastn\u00ed spojenci \u00cdr\u00e1nu rozhodnou zapojit.<\/span><\/p>\n

V b\u0159eznu 2021 byla podeps\u00e1na 25let\u00e1 dohoda o spolupr\u00e1ci mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a jadern\u011b vyzbrojenou \u010c\u00ednou s c\u00edlem pos\u00edlit vazby na rozvoj energetick\u00e9 infrastruktury.\u00a0Po rusk\u00e9 intervenci na Ukrajin\u011b prohloubily vztahy tak\u00e9 Teher\u00e1n a Moskva, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e Vladimir Putin v \u010dervenci nav\u0161t\u00edvil \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 hlavn\u00ed m\u011bsto.<\/span><\/p>\n

Existuje re\u00e1ln\u00e1 mo\u017enost, \u017ee se bu\u010f Peking, nebo Moskva rozhodne zas\u00e1hnout, pokud Z\u00e1pad podnikne vojenskou akci proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, a je tedy nejen v z\u00e1jmu \u00cdr\u00e1nu, aby sou\u010dasn\u00e9 nepokoje byly co nejd\u0159\u00edve ukon\u010deny, ale i v z\u00e1jmu cel\u00e9ho sv\u011bt.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u010ctvrte\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159izn\u00e1n\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho poradce pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost a nechvaln\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00e9ho proti\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho agit\u00e1tora Johna Boltona,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":18361,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[38,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18360"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18360"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18360\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18361"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18360"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18360"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18360"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}