{"id":18177,"date":"2022-11-14T05:27:55","date_gmt":"2022-11-14T04:27:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=18177"},"modified":"2022-11-14T05:27:55","modified_gmt":"2022-11-14T04:27:55","slug":"pepe-escobar-sun-tzu-vvchazi-do-baru-v-chersonu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/11\/14\/pepe-escobar-sun-tzu-vvchazi-do-baru-v-chersonu\/","title":{"rendered":"Pepe Escobar: Sun Tzu vvch\u00e1z\u00ed do baru v Chersonu…"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
Dohoda nebo ne, gener\u00e1l Winter p\u0159ij\u00ed\u017ed\u00ed do m\u011bsta \u2013 p\u0159ipraven pohostit sv\u00e9ho \u010destn\u00e9ho hosta Sun Tzu mnoha nov\u00fdmi pokrmy na jejich j\u00eddeln\u00edm stole.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ozn\u00e1men\u00ed o chersonsk\u00e9m \u00fastupu mo\u017en\u00e1 p\u0159edznamenalo jeden z nejchmurn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch dn\u016f Rusk\u00e9 federace od roku 1991.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

Opustit prav\u00fd b\u0159eh Dn\u011bpru a vytvo\u0159it obrannou linii na lev\u00e9m b\u0159ehu m\u016f\u017ee d\u00e1vat z vojensk\u00e9ho hlediska smysl. S\u00e1m gener\u00e1l Armagedon od sv\u00e9ho prvn\u00edho dne ve funkci nazna\u010doval, \u017ee by to mohlo b\u00fdt nevyhnuteln\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Jak to vypad\u00e1 na \u0161achovnici, Cherson se nach\u00e1z\u00ed na \u201e\u0161patn\u00e9\u201c stran\u011b Dn\u011bpru. V\u0161ichni obyvatel\u00e9 Chersonsk\u00e9 oblasti \u2013 celkem 115 000 lid\u00ed -, kte\u0159\u00ed cht\u011bli b\u00fdt p\u0159em\u00edst\u011bni do bezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch zem\u011bpisn\u00fdch \u0161\u00ed\u0159ek, byli z prav\u00e9ho b\u0159ehu evakuov\u00e1ni.<\/p>\n

Gener\u00e1l Armagedon v\u011bd\u011bl, \u017ee je to nevyhnuteln\u00e9 z n\u011bkolika d\u016fvod\u016f:<\/p>\n

\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 mobilizace pot\u00e9, co p\u016fvodn\u00ed pl\u00e1ny SMO zapadly prachem; zni\u010den\u00ed strategick\u00fdch most\u016f p\u0159es Dn\u011bpr \u2013 dopln\u011bn\u00e9 t\u0159\u00edm\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm metodick\u00fdm ukrajinsk\u00fdm bu\u0161en\u00edm do most\u016f, p\u0159\u00edvoz\u016f, ponton\u016f a mol; \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 druh\u00e9 p\u0159edmost\u00ed severn\u011b od Chersonu nebo na z\u00e1pad\u011b (sm\u011brem na Od\u011bsu nebo Nikolajev) pro veden\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy.<\/p>\n

A pak ten nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed d\u016fvod: masivn\u00ed vyzbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny z\u00e1padn\u00edmi zbran\u011bmi spolu s faktick\u00fdm veden\u00edm v\u00e1lky ze strany NATO znamenalo obrovskou p\u0159evahu Z\u00e1padu v oblasti pr\u016fzkumu, komunikac\u00ed a velen\u00ed a \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Nakonec m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt \u00fastup z Chersonu relativn\u011b malou taktickou ztr\u00e1tou. Z politick\u00e9ho hlediska je to v\u0161ak naprost\u00e1 katastrofa, zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed ostuda.<\/p>\n

Cherson je rusk\u00e9 m\u011bsto. Rusov\u00e9 ztratili \u2013 by\u0165 do\u010dasn\u011b \u2013 hlavn\u00ed m\u011bsto zcela nov\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed p\u0159ipojen\u00e9ho k federaci. Rusk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed bude m\u00edt obrovsk\u00e9 probl\u00e9my tuto zpr\u00e1vu vst\u0159ebat.<\/p>\n

Seznam negativ je zna\u010dn\u00fd. Kyjevsk\u00e9 s\u00edly si zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed sv\u00e9 k\u0159\u00eddlo a mohou uvolnit s\u00edly k postupu proti Donbasu. Zbrojen\u00ed ze strany kolektivn\u00edho Z\u00e1padu dost\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00fdznamn\u00fd impuls. HIMARS nyn\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee potenci\u00e1ln\u011b zas\u00e1hnout c\u00edle na Krymu.<\/p>\n

Optika je p\u0159\u00ed\u0161ern\u00e1. Obraz Ruska na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm Jihu je v\u00e1\u017en\u011b po\u0161kozen; koneckonc\u016f tento krok se rovn\u00e1 opu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed \u2013 zat\u00edmco s\u00e9riov\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 zlo\u010diny okam\u017eit\u011b zmiz\u00ed z hlavn\u00edho \u201enarativu\u201c.<\/p>\n

Rusov\u00e9 m\u011bli u\u017e d\u00e1vno minim\u00e1ln\u011b pos\u00edlit sv\u00e9 hlavn\u00ed strategick\u00e9 p\u0159edmost\u00ed na z\u00e1padn\u00ed stran\u011b Dn\u011bpru tak, aby se udr\u017eelo \u2013 pokud nedojde k v\u0161eobecn\u011b p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00e9mu zatopen\u00ed Kachovsk\u00e9 p\u0159ehrady. A p\u0159esto Rusov\u00e9 hrozbu bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ehrady tak\u00e9 dlouh\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00edce ignorovali. To sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o mizern\u00e9m pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed budou muset rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly dob\u00fdvat Cherson znovu. A soub\u011b\u017en\u011b s t\u00edm stabilizovat frontov\u00e9 linie; vyty\u010dit definitivn\u00ed hranice; a pak se sna\u017eit o definitivn\u00ed \u201edemilitarizaci\u201c ukrajinsk\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy, a\u0165 u\u017e vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm, nebo kobercov\u00fdm bombardov\u00e1n\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Je pom\u011brn\u011b objevn\u00e9, \u017ee cel\u00e1 \u0159ada zpravodajc\u016f NATO, od analytik\u016f a\u017e po gener\u00e1ly ve v\u00fdslu\u017eb\u011b, je v\u016f\u010di kroku gener\u00e1la Armageddona podez\u0159\u00edvav\u00e1: pova\u017euj\u00ed ho za promy\u0161lenou past, nebo jak to vyj\u00e1d\u0159il jeden francouzsk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd analytik, \u201emasivn\u00ed podvodnou operaci\u201c. Klasick\u00fd Sun Tzu. To bylo n\u00e1le\u017eit\u011b za\u010dlen\u011bno jako ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fd narativ.<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee, abychom citovali Twin Peaks, klasiku americk\u00e9 popkultury, \u201esovy nejsou t\u00edm, \u010d\u00edm se zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt\u201c. Pokud je tomu tak, gener\u00e1l Armageddon by cht\u011bl v\u00e1\u017en\u011b p\u0159et\u00e1hnout ukrajinsk\u00e9 z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed linie; sv\u00e9st je k odhalen\u00ed; a pak se pustit do masivn\u00edho st\u0159\u00edlen\u00ed krocan\u016f.<\/p>\n

Bu\u010f je to tedy Sun Tzu, nebo se chyst\u00e1 dohoda, kter\u00e1 se bude konat p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden na Bali v souvislosti se zased\u00e1n\u00edm G20.<\/p>\n

Um\u011bn\u00ed dohody<\/h2>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee mezi Jakem Sullivanem a Patru\u0161evem do\u0161lo k n\u011bjak\u00e9 dohod\u011b.<\/p>\n

Nikdo nezn\u00e1 podrobnosti, dokonce ani ti, kte\u0159\u00ed maj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k plamenn\u00fdm inform\u00e1tor\u016fm p\u00e1t\u00e9 kolony v Kyjev\u011b. Ale ano \u2013 zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee dohoda zahrnuje i Cherson. Rusko by si ponechalo Donbas, ale nepostupovalo by sm\u011brem k Charkovu a Od\u011bse. A expanze NATO by byla definitivn\u011b zmrazena. Minimalistick\u00e1 dohoda.<\/p>\n

To by vysv\u011btlovalo, pro\u010d mohl Patru\u0161ev sou\u010dasn\u011b s ozn\u00e1men\u00edm o chersonsk\u00e9m \u00fastupu nasednout do letadla do Teher\u00e1nu a zcela uvoln\u011bn\u011b vy\u0159\u00eddit velmi d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 partnersk\u00e9 z\u00e1le\u017eitosti s Al\u00edm \u0160amch\u00e1n\u00ed, tajemn\u00edkem \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed rady n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n

Dohoda mohla b\u00fdt tak\u00e9 \u201etajemstv\u00edm\u201c, kter\u00e9 bylo obsa\u017eeno v prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Marie Zacharovov\u00e9, \u017ee \u201ejsme p\u0159ipraveni k jedn\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c.<\/p>\n

Rusov\u00e9 opust\u00ed n\u00e1b\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Dn\u011bpru v r\u00e1mci \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho \u00fastupu. To by nebylo mo\u017en\u00e9 bez \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9ho vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed mezi vojensk\u00fdmi jednotkami.<\/p>\n

Tato z\u00e1kulisn\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed prob\u00edhaj\u00ed ji\u017e n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f. Poslem je Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie. C\u00edlem USA by v kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu bylo dos\u00e1hnout jak\u00e9si dohody Minsk 3 \u2013 s p\u0159ipojen\u00edm Istanbulu\/Rij\u00e1du.<\/p>\n

Nikdo nev\u011bnuje sebemen\u0161\u00ed pozornost kokainov\u00e9mu klaunovi Zelensk\u00e9mu. Sullivan se vydal do Kyjeva, aby p\u0159edlo\u017eil hotovou v\u011bc \u2013 sv\u00e9ho druhu.<\/p>\n

Dn\u011bpr bude \u2013 v tezi \u2013 ust\u00e1lenou a vyjednanou frontovou lini\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Kyjev by musel p\u0159ekousnout zamrzlou linii kontaktu v Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed, Don\u011bcku a Lugansku \u2013 Kyjev by ze Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed dost\u00e1val elekt\u0159inu, a proto by p\u0159estal ost\u0159elovat jeho infrastrukturu.<\/p>\n

USA by poskytly p\u016fj\u010dku ve v\u00fd\u0161i 50 miliard dolar\u016f a \u010d\u00e1st zabaven\u00e9ho, tj. ukraden\u00e9ho, rusk\u00e9ho majetku na \u201eobnovu\u201c Ukrajiny. Kyjev by dostal modern\u00ed syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany.<\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed pochyb o tom, \u017ee Moskva nebude souhlasit s \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm z t\u011bchto ustanoven\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V\u0161imn\u011bte si, \u017ee se to v\u0161echno shoduje s v\u00fdsledkem voleb v USA, kde demokrat\u00e9 zrovna neprohr\u00e1li.<\/p>\n

Rusko mezit\u00edm v bitv\u011b o Bachmut sb\u00edr\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed body.<\/p>\n

V Moskv\u011b si ned\u011blaj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 iluze o tom, \u017ee by tento krypto-Minsk 3 \u201enedohody schopn\u00e9\u201c imp\u00e9rium respektovalo.<\/p>\n

Jake Sullivan je 45let\u00fd pr\u00e1vn\u00edk s nulov\u00fdm strategick\u00fdm z\u00e1zem\u00edm a \u201ezku\u0161enostmi\u201c, kter\u00e9 se rovnaj\u00ed kampani pro Hillary Clintonovou. Patru\u0161ev si ho m\u016f\u017ee d\u00e1t k sn\u00eddani, ob\u011bdu, ve\u010de\u0159i i no\u010dn\u00ed sva\u010din\u011b \u2013 a nejasn\u011b \u201esouhlasit\u201c s \u010d\u00edmkoli.<\/p>\n

Pro\u010d se tedy Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 zoufale sna\u017e\u00ed nab\u00eddnout dohodu? Proto\u017ee mo\u017en\u00e1 tu\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00fd krok s p\u0159\u00edchodem gener\u00e1la Wintera by m\u011bl b\u00fdt schopen definitivn\u011b vyhr\u00e1t v\u00e1lku za podm\u00ednek Moskvy. To by zahrnovalo p\u0159ibouchnut\u00ed polsk\u00fdch hranic prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm dlouh\u00e9ho \u0161\u00edpu sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00edc\u00edho z B\u011bloruska dol\u016f. Po p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1sobovac\u00edch linek zbran\u00ed je osud Kyjeva zpe\u010det\u011bn.<\/p>\n

Dohoda nebo ne, gener\u00e1l Winter p\u0159ij\u00ed\u017ed\u00ed do m\u011bsta \u2013 p\u0159ipraven pohostit sv\u00e9ho \u010destn\u00e9ho hosta Sun Tzu mnoha nov\u00fdmi pokrmy na jejich j\u00eddeln\u00edm stole.<\/p>\n

\n

Sun Tzu Walks Into a Kherson Bar\u2026<\/a> vy\u0161el 11.11.2022 na Strategic Culture. P\u0159eklad\u00a0 Zv\u011bdavec.<\/p>\n

P\u0159evzato\u00a0Zvedavec.org<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dohoda nebo ne, gener\u00e1l Winter p\u0159ij\u00ed\u017ed\u00ed do m\u011bsta \u2013 p\u0159ipraven pohostit sv\u00e9ho \u010destn\u00e9ho hosta Sun…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11986,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[3189,29,220,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18177"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18177"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18177\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11986"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}