{"id":18018,"date":"2022-11-10T04:39:16","date_gmt":"2022-11-10T03:39:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=18018"},"modified":"2022-11-10T04:39:16","modified_gmt":"2022-11-10T03:39:16","slug":"zbynek-fiala-biden-bude-chroma-kachna","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/11\/10\/zbynek-fiala-biden-bude-chroma-kachna\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Biden bude chrom\u00e1 kachna"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Demokrat\u00e9 ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed Sn\u011bmovnu reprezentant\u016f, Sen\u00e1t snad beze zm\u011bny.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Demokracii ve vleku velk\u00fdch pen\u011bz a bezb\u0159eh\u00fdch demagog\u016f Ameri\u010dan\u016fm z\u00e1vid\u011bt nemus\u00edme, s t\u00edm si vysta\u010d\u00edme, ale zpravodajstv\u00ed o pr\u016fb\u011bhu voleb ur\u010dit\u011b ano. Sledoval jsem to v New York Times, ale zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 to bylo i jinde, v\u0161echna v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed m\u00e9dia maj\u00ed sv\u00e9 metody. Pochopiteln\u011b nab\u00edzej\u00ed tak\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi. Ty se pak up\u0159es\u0148uj\u00ed podle doch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f.<\/p>\n

NYT brzy nab\u00edzely odhad, \u017ee v Sen\u00e1tu to skon\u010di stejnou plichtou 50 na 50 jako minule, i kdy\u017e Demokrat\u016fm st\u00e1le p\u0159ipisovaly nepatrn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161anci. Zato ve Sn\u011bmovn\u011b reprezentant\u016f se podle NYT prakticky obr\u00e1t\u00ed pom\u011br sil a Republik\u00e1ni by m\u011bli z\u00edskat p\u0159evahu 224 ku 211 k\u0159esel.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2022\/11\/08\/us\/elections\/results-key-races.html<\/a><\/p>\n

Uvid\u00edme, jak ta p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f vyjde, ale m\u016f\u017ee to trvat p\u011bkn\u011b dlouho, ne\u017e budou k dispozici kone\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky. To je dost p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee volebn\u00ed syst\u00e9m v USA je na prvn\u00ed pohled jednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e u n\u00e1s. V zemi dominuj\u00ed jen dv\u011b hlavn\u00ed strany, Republik\u00e1ni a Demokrat\u00e9, a volebn\u00ed syt\u00e9m je v\u011bt\u0161inov\u00fd. Kdo se dostane p\u0159es 50 procent, vyhr\u00e1l, d\u00e1l nen\u00ed co \u0159e\u0161it. Brzy jsou jasn\u00e9 i pom\u011bry sil v zemi, proto\u017ee n\u011bjak\u00e9 koali\u010dn\u00ed pikle a obch\u00e1zen\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bze nep\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed v \u00favahu.<\/p>\n

V\u011bt\u0161inou to tak dopadne, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 plat\u00ed podobn\u00e9 pravidlo jako v na\u0161ich sen\u00e1tn\u00edch volb\u00e1ch, kdy v\u00edt\u011bz bez nadpolovi\u010dn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161iny mus\u00ed do druh\u00e9ho kola, kde si to rozd\u00e1 s druh\u00fdm na p\u00e1sce. Takhle se to moment\u00e1ln\u011b r\u00fdsuje pro sen\u00e1tora za st\u00e1t Goergia, kde to vypad\u00e1 na druh\u00e9 kolo 6. prosince. Nejsp\u00ed\u0161 teprve pak se dozv\u00edme, kdo m\u00e1 v Sen\u00e1tu v\u011bt\u0161inu.<\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e9le to pochopiteln\u011b trv\u00e1, kdy\u017e vzniknou spory o legalit\u011b hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed. Dv\u011b stovky republik\u00e1nsk\u00fdch feder\u00e1ln\u00edch kandid\u00e1t\u016f v t\u011bchto volb\u00e1ch v mezidob\u00ed tvo\u0159\u00ed ti, kdo tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee minul\u00e9 prezidentsk\u00e9 volby byly Donaldu Trumpovi ukradeny. A nelze vylou\u010dit, \u017ee budou toto t\u00e9ma cht\u00edt znovu otev\u0159\u00edt, kdy\u017e budou m\u00edt za z\u00e1dy partajn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu.<\/p>\n

Av\u0161ak i kdy\u017e je v\u0161echno v po\u0159\u00e1dku, hlavn\u00edm zdrojem zdr\u017een\u00ed jsou pestr\u00e9 metody hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed. Prakticky v\u0161ude se d\u00e1 hlasovat p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u011b, n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f p\u0159edem, a to nejen po\u0161tou, i osobn\u011b. Letos toho vyu\u017eilo 45 milionu voli\u010d\u016f. Koresponden\u010dn\u011b se d\u00e1 hlasovat dokonce v den voleb, to je podm\u00ednka pro p\u0159ed\u00e1n\u00ed hlasu po\u0161t\u011b. A pak se \u010dek\u00e1 a doru\u010den\u00ed. Nap\u0159\u00edklad v Nevad\u011b jsou na doru\u010den\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i dny. A proto\u017ee v Nevad\u011b jsou pom\u011bry sil velice t\u011bsn\u00e9, teprve pak se dozv\u00edme, jak to tam dopadlo.<\/p>\n

P\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se zji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed pr\u016fzkumem voli\u010d\u016f u v\u00fdchodu z volebn\u00ed m\u00edstnosti, mohou b\u00fdt ze v\u0161ech t\u011bchto d\u016fvod\u016f v Americe zna\u010dn\u011b zkresluj\u00edc\u00ed. K urn\u00e1m chod\u00ed osobn\u011b hlavn\u011b Republik\u00e1ni. T\u0159eba zrovna Nevada je cel\u00e1 rud\u00e1, a\u017e na Las Vegas. Venkovsk\u00e9 obvody jsou mal\u00e9, a tak jak p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e9, tak pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky z mal\u00fdch venkovsk\u00fdch obvod\u016f p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed jako prvn\u00ed a p\u016fsob\u00ed dojmem rud\u00e9 tsunami.<\/p>\n

Jen\u017ee to je\u0161t\u011b nezn\u00e1me v\u011bt\u0161inu demokratick\u00fdch hlas\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou \u010dast\u011bji uplat\u0148ov\u00e1ny jako p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9 nebo koresponden\u010dn\u00ed. Hlasy z p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9ho hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed se po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed a\u017e po se\u010dten\u00ed hlas\u016f z volebn\u00edho dne. O hlasech koresponden\u010dn\u00edch jsme si u\u017e \u0159ekli, \u017ee mohou p\u0159ich\u00e1zet a\u017e \u010dty\u0159i dal\u0161\u00ed dny. V\u011bt\u0161ina Demokrat\u016f tak\u00e9 poch\u00e1z\u00ed z velk\u00fdch m\u011bst, kde trv\u00e1 s\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed hlas\u016f d\u00e9le.<\/p>\n

T\u0159eba zrovna na nevadsk\u00e9m grafu v New York Times m\u016f\u017eeme sledovat, jak se pom\u011br zapo\u010dten\u00fdch hlas\u016f v pr\u016fb\u011bhu \u010dasu m\u011bnil, a taky zda se odchyloval od redak\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi. Ve st\u0159edu ve\u010der, kdy tyto \u0159\u00e1dky p\u00ed\u0161u, m\u011bl republik\u00e1nsk\u00fd kandid\u00e1t Adam Laxalt 49,9 procenta dosud se\u010dten\u00fdch hlas\u016f, co\u017e vypad\u00e1 jako mal\u00fd kr\u016f\u010dek od c\u00edle, ale se\u010dteno bylo pouh\u00fdch 75 procent hlas\u016f. Jak zapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1vaj\u00ed ty zpozdil\u00e9 koresponden\u010dn\u00ed, jestli volaj\u00ed na po\u0161ty, to opravdu nev\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Na t\u00e9to hodnot\u011b st\u00e1l pr\u016fb\u011bh s\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed u\u017e n\u011bkolik hodin, tak\u017ee mal\u00e1 m\u00edsta z\u0159ejm\u011b do\u0161la a ve velk\u00fdch to trv\u00e1. A proto\u017ee Nevada je spolu s Georgi\u00ed a Arizonou jedn\u00edm ze t\u0159\u00ed m\u00edst, kter\u00e9 rozhodnou o celkov\u00e9m v\u00fdsledku voleb do Sen\u00e1tu a vlastn\u011b o pom\u011bru sil v zemi, je to docela nap\u00ednav\u00e9. NYT p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed, \u017ee demokratick\u00e1 kandid\u00e1tka Catherine Cortez Masto nakonec t\u011bsn\u011b zv\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Nevadsk\u00fd v\u00fdsledek m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt i velk\u00fd symbolick\u00fd v\u00fdznam. Adam Laxalt je jedn\u00edm z hlavn\u00edch pop\u00edra\u010d\u016f v\u00fdsledku prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb, pom\u00e1hal prezidentu Trumpovi zvr\u00e1tit v\u00fdsledek voleb 2020 z pozice ministra spravedlnosti, kam byl kr\u00e1tce p\u0159ed koncem Trumpova funk\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed jmenov\u00e1n. Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 jsou v t\u00e9to v\u011bci hluboce rozd\u011bleni a volby tak p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e n\u00e1bo\u017eenskou v\u00e1lku ne\u017e hled\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed dohody o budoucnosti.<\/p>\n

Americk\u00e9 koment\u00e1\u0159e to popisuj\u00ed jako boj o demokracii, ale co si pod t\u00edm pojmem p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed, je pro m\u011b z\u00e1hada, kdy\u017e hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed pom\u00edj\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed t\u00e9mata, jako je bohorovn\u00e9 poru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va hegemonistickou politikou Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a podivn\u00e1 samoz\u0159ejmost, \u017ee USA po celou dobu prakticky nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u011b n\u011bkde daleko od domova v\u00e1l\u010d\u00ed. O v\u00e1lce na Ukrajin\u011b se v p\u0159edvolebn\u00ed kampani moc nemluvilo, p\u0159esto\u017ee na zemi dol\u00e9h\u00e1 nep\u0159\u00edmo vysok\u00fdmi cenami energi\u00ed a navazuj\u00edc\u00ed rekordn\u00ed inflac\u00ed. Inflace byla t\u00e9ma, v\u00e1lka ne. Okrajov\u011b se prob\u00edraly pen\u00edze na v\u00e1lku, n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed Republik\u00e1ni poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee u\u017eite\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed by byly p\u0159i \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed probl\u00e9m\u016f doma.<\/p>\n

Pokud volby skon\u010d\u00ed plichtou v Sen\u00e1tu, do hry vstupuje je\u0161t\u011b viceprezidentka Kamala Harrisov\u00e1, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159i rovnosti hlas\u016f rozhodnout. Ale pro pozitivn\u00ed p\u0159ekon\u00e1n\u00ed odporu opozice, kdy\u017e jde o za\u0159azen\u00ed nov\u00e9ho bodu na program jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, je pot\u0159eba 60 hlas\u016f, to Demokrat\u00e9 nedaj\u00ed. Ve Sn\u011bmovn\u011b reprezentant\u016f rozhoduje prost\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina, a ta bude pat\u0159it Republik\u00e1n\u016fm.<\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e si tedy na v\u00fdsledky voleb v mezidob\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bjak\u00fd \u010das po\u010dk\u00e1me a m\u016f\u017ee to b\u00fdt docela zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, u\u017e te\u010f se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt jasn\u00e9, \u017ee vyhr\u00e1li Republik\u00e1ni. Nepopul\u00e1rn\u00edho a sl\u00e1bnouc\u00edho prezidenta Joe Bidena \u010dek\u00e1 f\u00e1ze chrom\u00e9 kachny. Nerad se pou\u0161t\u00edm do velk\u00fdch proroctv\u00ed, ale zd\u00e1 se mi jasn\u00e9, \u017ee Demokrat\u00e9 nemohou riskovat dal\u0161\u00ed por\u00e1\u017eku a postav\u00ed jin\u00e9ho prezidentsk\u00e9ho kandid\u00e1ta. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m tedy, \u017ee Biden do druh\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed nep\u016fjde, a\u0165 u\u017e dnes prohla\u0161uje cokoliv.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n
\u017durnalista, v minulosti dlouholet\u00fd \u0161\u00e9fredaktor \u010dasopisu Ekonom<\/em><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Demokrat\u00e9 ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed Sn\u011bmovnu reprezentant\u016f, Sen\u00e1t snad beze zm\u011bny. Demokracii ve vleku velk\u00fdch pen\u011bz a bezb\u0159eh\u00fdch…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17035,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[72,29,37,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18018"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18018"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18018\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18018"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18018"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18018"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}