{"id":17996,"date":"2022-11-09T05:53:25","date_gmt":"2022-11-09T04:53:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=17996"},"modified":"2022-11-09T05:53:25","modified_gmt":"2022-11-09T04:53:25","slug":"svetova-populace-brzy-prekroci-8-miliard-lidi-a-jiz-trikrat-vice-nez-v-roce-1950","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/11\/09\/svetova-populace-brzy-prekroci-8-miliard-lidi-a-jiz-trikrat-vice-nez-v-roce-1950\/","title":{"rendered":"Sv\u011btov\u00e1 populace brzy p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed 8 miliard lid\u00ed \u2013 a ji\u017e t\u0159ikr\u00e1t v\u00edce ne\u017e v roce 1950"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Podle odborn\u00edk\u016f dos\u00e1hne sv\u011btov\u00e1 populace p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden osmi miliard lid\u00ed.\u00a0Po\u010det obyvatel na\u0161\u00ed planety se ji\u017e t\u0159ikr\u00e1t zv\u00fd\u0161il, ne\u017e tomu bylo v polovin\u011b minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed.\u00a0A stalo se tak kv\u016fli prodlou\u017een\u00ed celkov\u00e9 d\u00e9lky \u017eivota, p\u00ed\u0161e Daily Mail.\u00a0N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed analytici si z\u00e1rove\u0148 kladou ot\u00e1zku, zda bude st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed po\u010det lid\u00ed schopen zajistit udr\u017eiteln\u00fd rozvoj v budoucnu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Podle odborn\u00edk\u016f z OSN ji\u017e p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden 15. listopadu dos\u00e1hne sv\u011btov\u00e1 populace 8 miliard lid\u00ed, co\u017e bude d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd miln\u00edk pro cel\u00e9 lidstvo, uv\u00e1d\u00ed Daily Mail.\u00a0To je v\u00edce ne\u017e trojn\u00e1sobek celkov\u00e9 populace v roce 1950, kdy to bylo 2,5 miliardy lid\u00ed, uv\u00e1d\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek.<\/p>\n

\u0160\u00e9fka Popula\u010dn\u00edho fondu OSN Natalia Kanem ozna\u010dila tuto ud\u00e1lost za nesm\u00edrn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eitou pro v\u0161echny obyvatele planety.\u00a0„Osm miliard lid\u00ed je v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm miln\u00edkem pro lidstvo,“<\/em>\u00a0zd\u016fraznila a ocenila takov\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011bchy, jako je zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 d\u00e9lky \u017eivota a tak\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed mate\u0159sk\u00e9 a d\u011btsk\u00e9 \u00famrtnosti.\u201eN\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed vyjad\u0159uj\u00ed strach, \u017ee n\u00e1\u0161 sv\u011bt je p\u0159elidn\u011bn\u00fd.\u00a0Jsem tu, abych dala jasn\u011b najevo, \u017ee po\u010det lidsk\u00fdch \u017eivot\u016f s\u00e1m o sob\u011b nen\u00ed d\u016fvodem ke strachu<\/em>\u00a0,\u201c dodala.<\/p>\n

Jak odborn\u00edci vysv\u011btluj\u00ed, je to d\u00e1no p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm prodlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm st\u0159edn\u00ed d\u00e9lky \u017eivota a po\u010dtem lid\u00ed v reproduk\u010dn\u00edm v\u011bku, co\u017e je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd faktor pro r\u016fst populace.\u00a0Podle projekc\u00ed OSN bude populace na\u0161\u00ed planety v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch desetilet\u00edch d\u00e1le r\u016fst a pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 d\u00e9lka \u017eivota se do roku 2050 zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed na pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch 77,2 let.<\/p>\n

Odhaduje se, \u017ee sv\u011btov\u00e1 populace dos\u00e1hne do roku 2030 8,5 miliardy, do roku 2050 9,7 miliardy a do konce tohoto stolet\u00ed dos\u00e1hne vrcholu asi 10,4 miliardy.\u00a0\u010c\u00edsla z\u00e1rove\u0148 ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee popula\u010dn\u00ed r\u016fst je v sou\u010dasnosti nejpomalej\u0161\u00ed ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s polovinou minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed, p\u00ed\u0161e se v \u010dl\u00e1nku.<\/p>\n

Po sv\u00e9m vrcholu na po\u010d\u00e1tku 60. let se popula\u010dn\u00ed r\u016fst prudce zpomalil a do roku 2020 klesl pod 1 % ro\u010dn\u011b, uvedla Rachel Snowov\u00e1 z Popula\u010dn\u00edho fondu OSN.\u00a0Jak odborn\u00edci p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed, toto \u010d\u00edslo by mohlo potenci\u00e1ln\u011b klesnout na zhruba 0,5 % do roku 2050 kv\u016fli pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edmu poklesu porodnosti.<\/p>\n

Podle OSN byla v roce 2021 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 plodnost (\u00fahrnn\u00e1 plodnost) 2,3 d\u00edt\u011bte na \u017eenu za \u017eivot, zat\u00edmco v roce 1950 dosahovala asi p\u011bti d\u011bt\u00ed.\u00a0Podle progn\u00f3z do roku 2050 toto \u010d\u00edslo v pr\u016fm\u011bru klesne na 2,1.\u00a0V\u011bt\u0161ina lid\u00ed nyn\u00ed \u017eije v zem\u00edch, kde je porodnost pod \u00farovn\u00ed pot\u0159ebnou pro norm\u00e1ln\u00ed reprodukci, uv\u00e1d\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek.<\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e1 d\u00e9lka \u017eivota p\u0159itom st\u00e1le roste: v roce 2019 to bylo 72,8 let, o dev\u011bt let v\u00edce ne\u017e v roce 1990.\u00a0OSN tak\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee do roku 2050 bude pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 d\u00e9lka \u017eivota 77,2 let.\u00a0V d\u016fsledku toho v kombinaci se sou\u010dasn\u00fdm poklesem porodnosti vzroste pod\u00edl osob star\u0161\u00edch 65 let z 10 % v roce 2022 na 16 % v roce 2050, co\u017e bude znamenat rostouc\u00ed pot\u0159ebu p\u00e9\u010de o seniory, tzv. \u010dl\u00e1nek zpr\u00e1vy.<\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011bry skr\u00fdvaj\u00ed velk\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed rozd\u00edly, zd\u016fraz\u0148uje Daily Mail.\u00a0Podle progn\u00f3z OSN bude do roku 2050 v\u00edce ne\u017e polovina r\u016fstu sv\u011btov\u00e9 populace poch\u00e1zet z pouh\u00fdch osmi zem\u00ed: Demokratick\u00e9 republiky Kongo, Egypta, Etiopie, Indie, Nig\u00e9rie, P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu, Filip\u00edn a Tanzanie.\u00a0Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se dramaticky li\u0161\u00ed i pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd v\u011bk populace v r\u016fzn\u00fdch zem\u00edch.<\/p>\n

N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed odborn\u00edci se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee tyto region\u00e1ln\u00ed demografick\u00e9 rozd\u00edly mohou hr\u00e1t v budoucnu velmi d\u016fle\u017eitou roli ve sv\u011btov\u00e9 geopolitice.\u00a0Dal\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edkladem v\u00fdrazn\u011b se m\u011bn\u00edc\u00edho trendu je podle OSN to, \u017ee dv\u011b v sou\u010dasnosti nejlidnat\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b \u2013 \u010c\u00edna a Indie \u2013 by si m\u011bly vym\u011bnit m\u00edsta ji\u017e v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce: podle progn\u00f3z za\u010dne \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 populace, nyn\u00ed 1,4 miliardy lid\u00ed postupn\u011b klesat a Indie bude v tomto ukazateli na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b na sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed je populace Indie o n\u011bco ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v \u010c\u00edn\u011b, ale o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee v roce 2023 za\u010dne v\u00e9st a do roku 2050 dos\u00e1hne 1,7 miliardy lid\u00ed.\u00a0I kdy\u017e se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee po\u010det \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch obyvatel do roku 2050 klesne na 1,3 miliardy a do konce stolet\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee dokonce klesnout na 800 milion\u016f, uv\u00e1d\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek.\u00a0Odborn\u00edci se tak\u00e9 domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty z\u016fstanou do roku 2050 t\u0159et\u00ed nejlidnat\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zem\u00ed sv\u011bta, ale p\u0159edb\u011bhnou je Nig\u00e9rie, jej\u00ed\u017e populace dos\u00e1hne 375 milion\u016f.<\/p>\n

Na Zemi se v\u0161ak neobjevuje p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho lid\u00ed, aby planeta odolala v\u0161em ?\u00a0Mnoho odborn\u00edk\u016f tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee je to \u0161patn\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka: podle jejich n\u00e1zoru nam\u00edsto strachu z \u201e\u00a0p\u0159elidn\u011bn\u00ed<\/em>\u00bb Mus\u00edme se zam\u011b\u0159it na probl\u00e9m nadm\u011brn\u00e9 spot\u0159eby zdroj\u016f planety, kter\u00e9 nej\u010dast\u011bji zneu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed nejbohat\u0161\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka, kolik lid\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee Zem\u011b u\u017eivit, m\u00e1 dv\u011b strany: p\u0159irozen\u00e9 limity a lidskou volbu, vysv\u011btlil Joel Coen z Popula\u010dn\u00ed laborato\u0159e Rockefellerovy univerzity.\u00a0Jsou to na\u0161e rozhodnut\u00ed, kter\u00e1 vedou k tomu, \u017ee lid\u00e9 za\u010dnou spot\u0159ebov\u00e1vat mnohem v\u00edce biologick\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, jako jsou lesy a p\u016fda, ne\u017e je na\u0161e planeta schopna ka\u017ed\u00fd rok obnovit a regenerovat, \u0159ekl Cohen.\u00a0Nap\u0159\u00edklad nadm\u011brn\u00e1 spot\u0159eba fosiln\u00edch paliv vede ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed emis\u00ed oxidu uhli\u010dit\u00e9ho, co\u017e zp\u016fsobuje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Podle Global Footprint Network a WWF, abychom udr\u017eiteln\u011b uspokojili v\u0161echny sou\u010dasn\u00e9 pot\u0159eby ji\u017e existuj\u00edc\u00ed populace, pot\u0159ebujeme ka\u017ed\u00fd rok p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1,75 biokapacity Zem\u011b.\u00a0Z\u00e1rove\u0148, pokud by v\u0161ichni lid\u00e9 na planet\u011b \u017eili jako obyvatel\u00e9 Indie, pak by bylo zapot\u0159eb\u00ed pouze 0,8 \u2013 a pokud by v\u0161ichni konzumovali tak, jak to d\u011blaj\u00ed obyvatel\u00e9 Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, pak bychom pot\u0159ebovali p\u011btin\u00e1sobek mno\u017estv\u00ed zemsk\u00e9ho zdroj\u016f, zd\u016fraz\u0148uje \u010dl\u00e1nek.<\/p>\n

A p\u0159esto\u017ee nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1va OSN o klimatu zmi\u0148uje r\u016fst populace jako jeden z hlavn\u00edch faktor\u016f zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed emis\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f, hraje v tomto procesu mnohem men\u0161\u00ed roli ne\u017e ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst.„Jsme hloup\u00ed.“\u00a0Chyb\u011bl n\u00e1m nadhled.\u00a0Jsme chamtiv\u00ed.\u00a0A nepou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me informace, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1me.\u00a0Tady le\u017e\u00ed volba a zdroj probl\u00e9m\u016f,\u201c<\/em>\u00a0\u0159ekl v t\u00e9to souvislosti Cohen.\u00a0Odm\u00edtl v\u0161ak my\u0161lenku, \u017ee lid\u00e9 jsou\u00a0pro planetu \u201e\u00a0proklet\u00edm \u201c a objasnil, \u017ee v\u0161ichni lid\u00e9 by prost\u011b m\u011bli m\u00edt lep\u0161\u00ed volbu.<\/em><\/p>\n

Podobn\u00fd n\u00e1zor sd\u00edl\u00ed i Jennifer Skubba, expertka z think tanku Wilson Center.\u00a0„N\u00e1\u0161 dopad na planetu je mnohem v\u00edce ur\u010dov\u00e1n na\u0161\u00edm chov\u00e1n\u00edm ne\u017e na\u0161imi po\u010dty,“<\/em>\u00a0\u0159ekla.\u00a0Podle n\u00ed teorie\u00a0\u201ep\u0159elidn\u011bn\u00ed\u201c\u00a0<\/em>\u0161kodliv\u00e1, proto\u017ee umo\u017e\u0148uje lidem v bohat\u00fdch zem\u00edch, kter\u00e9 spot\u0159ebov\u00e1vaj\u00ed nejv\u00edce, svalit vinu za v\u0161echny neduhy na\u0161\u00ed planety na rozvojov\u00e9 zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 se vyzna\u010duj\u00ed vysok\u00fdm popula\u010dn\u00edm r\u016fstem.<\/p>\n

Jedn\u00edm z nejobt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f, kter\u00e9 se v t\u011bchto diskuz\u00edch objevuj\u00ed, je tak\u00e9 ot\u00e1zka antikoncepce, uv\u00e1d\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek.\u00a0V\u00fdkonn\u00fd \u0159editel nevl\u00e1dn\u00ed organizace Population Matters Robin Maynard je p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee je nutn\u00e9 populaci sn\u00ed\u017eit \u2013 ale\u00a0\u201epouze pozitivn\u00edmi, dobrovoln\u00fdmi\u00a0a pr\u00e1va respektuj\u00edc\u00edmi prost\u0159edky\u201c<\/em>\u00a0a neopakovat\u00a0\u201ene\u0161\u0165astn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edklady\u201c<\/em>\u00a0\u00a0z historie.<\/p>\n

Jin\u00ed odborn\u00edci uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed dobr\u00e9 vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed a dobr\u00e9 pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed rodi\u010dovstv\u00ed jako jedno ze 100 nejlep\u0161\u00edch \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, jak zastavit glob\u00e1ln\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Podle jejich n\u00e1zoru m\u00e9n\u011b lid\u00ed s udr\u017eitelnou \u00farovn\u00ed spot\u0159eby pom\u016f\u017ee sn\u00ed\u017eit glob\u00e1ln\u00ed popt\u00e1vku po energii, doprav\u011b, materi\u00e1lech a potravin\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

Vanessa Perez z World Resources Institute tak\u00e9 v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee\u00a0\u201eka\u017ed\u00fd nov\u00fd \u010dlov\u011bk narozen\u00fd na planet\u011b klade na planetu dal\u0161\u00ed stres\u201c.\u00a0<\/em>Z\u00e1rove\u0148 uzn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee jde o velmi slo\u017eitou problematiku, a domn\u00edv\u00e1 se, \u017ee nejzaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed diskuse se net\u00fdkaj\u00ed celkov\u00e9ho po\u010dtu lid\u00ed na Zemi, ale probl\u00e9m\u016f\u00a0\u201edistribuce zdroj\u016f a spravedlnosti\u201c<\/em>\u00a0, p\u00ed\u0161e se v \u010dl\u00e1nku.<\/p>\n

Cohen zase zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee i kdy\u017e v sou\u010dasnosti produkujeme dostatek potravin pro 8 miliard lid\u00ed, asi 800 milion\u016f lid\u00ed je st\u00e1le chronicky podvy\u017eiven\u00fdch.\u00a0„Koncept ‚p\u0159elidn\u011bn\u00ed‘ se vyh\u00fdb\u00e1 diskusi o mnohem obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mu, kter\u00fdm je: Pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me v\u0161e, co v\u00edme, k tomu, aby byli lid\u00e9 zdrav\u00ed, produktivn\u00ed, \u0161\u0165astn\u00ed, m\u00edrumilovn\u00ed a prosperuj\u00edc\u00ed, jak je to jen mo\u017en\u00e9?“\u00a0<\/em>\u00a0uzav\u0159el expert v rozhovoru pro Daily Mail.<\/p>\n

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Podle odborn\u00edk\u016f dos\u00e1hne sv\u011btov\u00e1 populace p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden osmi miliard lid\u00ed.\u00a0Po\u010det obyvatel na\u0161\u00ed planety se ji\u017e…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4944,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[2181,940,186,65,3284],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17996"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17996"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17996\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4944"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17996"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17996"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17996"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}