{"id":17457,"date":"2022-10-29T01:09:18","date_gmt":"2022-10-28T23:09:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=17457"},"modified":"2022-10-28T15:54:47","modified_gmt":"2022-10-28T13:54:47","slug":"david-bach-ctyri-scenare-pro-svet-v-chaosu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/10\/29\/david-bach-ctyri-scenare-pro-svet-v-chaosu\/","title":{"rendered":"David Bach: \u010cty\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e pro sv\u011bt v chaosu"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 obdob\u00ed chaosu a v\u0159avy m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 nebo dlouh\u00e9, ale bu\u010fte si jisti, \u017ee star\u00e1 \u00e9ra globalizace je mrtv\u00e1 a pry\u010d.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ned\u00e1vn\u00fd projev \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho v\u016fdce Si \u0164in-pchinga na konferenci komunistick\u00e9 strany by mohl b\u00fdt jedn\u00edm z nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch za desetilet\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Poslucha\u010d\u016fm \u2013 a sv\u011btu \u2013 \u0159ekl, \u017ee jeho pror\u016fstov\u00e1 politika \u201enulov\u00e9ho Covidu\u201c z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v platnosti a \u017ee Peking je odhodlan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdy jindy usilovat o znovusjednocen\u00ed s Tchaj-wanem, pokud mo\u017eno m\u00edrovou cestou, v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby i silou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u017dijeme v dob\u011b hlubok\u00fdch geopolitick\u00fdch rozpor\u016f a mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 nejistoty, kter\u00e1 se odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed v Xiho pozn\u00e1mk\u00e1ch.\u00a0Sv\u011bt se zjevn\u011b nevrac\u00ed do stavu p\u0159ed Covidem.\u00a0Kombinace sil sp\u00ed\u0161e postavila p\u0159edchoz\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d na hlavu a zah\u00e1jila obdob\u00ed hlubok\u00e9ho nepo\u0159\u00e1dku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Chci se pod\u00edvat na \u010dty\u0159i z t\u011bchto sil \u2013 zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se vztahy mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou, ruskou v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b, populismus a inflaci \u2013 abych nast\u00ednil n\u011bkter\u00e9 politicko-ekonomick\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e pro p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch dva a\u017e p\u011bt let.\u00a0Jak\u00fdkoli seznam destabilizuj\u00edc\u00edch glob\u00e1ln\u00edch sil mus\u00ed b\u00fdt ne\u00fapln\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Nebudu zva\u017eovat zm\u011bnu klimatu nebo ztr\u00e1tu biodiverzity (pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdzvy, kter\u00fdm lidstvo \u010del\u00ed), mo\u017en\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed Covidu, dopad um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence a dal\u0161\u00edch p\u0159evratn\u00fdch technologi\u00ed nebo roli dareb\u00e1ck\u00fdch re\u017eim\u016f od \u00cdr\u00e1nu po Severn\u00ed Koreu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>M\u00edsto toho se zam\u011b\u0159uji na oblasti, o kter\u00fdch se domn\u00edv\u00e1m, \u017ee budou m\u00edt v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch n\u011bkolika letech nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed dopad na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku \u2013 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm kv\u016fli jejich o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdm interakc\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>1.Rusk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Nejen\u017ee se rusk\u00fdm sil\u00e1m nepoda\u0159ilo rychle podrobit Kyjev, jak p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dali Kreml i mnoz\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed pozorovatel\u00e9, ale st\u00e1le v\u00edce se zd\u00e1, \u017ee Rusko v\u00e1lku prohraje \u2013 z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00ed a jadern\u00e1 mobilizace navzdory \u0159in\u010den\u00ed \u0161avl\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>To m\u00e1 t\u0159i d\u016fvody.\u00a0Za prv\u00e9, mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e1 vyrovnanost a odvaha ukrajinsk\u00e9ho lidu, ozbrojen\u00fdch sil a veden\u00ed.\u00a0Za druh\u00e9 naprost\u00fd chaos na rusk\u00e9 stran\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>A do t\u0159etice pozoruhodn\u00e1 jednota Z\u00e1padu, kter\u00fd ukrajinsk\u00fdm voj\u00e1k\u016fm poskytuje sofistikovan\u00e9 zbran\u011b, v\u00fdcvik a zpravodajsk\u00e9 informace a z\u00e1rove\u0148 pomalu ochromuje ruskou ekonomiku bojkoty a sankcemi.\u00a0Z\u00e1padn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti v\u00fdznamn\u011b p\u0159isp\u011bly, stahovaly se z Ruska po stovk\u00e1ch, vzdaly se majetku a vzdaly se zisk\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"jetpack-lazy-image jetpack-lazy-image--handled aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/asiatimes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Russia-Ukraine-War-.jpg?resize=1200%2C847&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"649\" height=\"458\" data-lazy-loaded=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>Z\u00e1padn\u00ed jednota \u010del\u00ed letos v zim\u011b nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zkou\u0161ce, proto\u017ee evropsk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby plynu doch\u00e1zej\u00ed a nebety\u010dn\u011b vysok\u00e9 ceny energi\u00ed urychluj\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd pokles do recese.\u00a0Jednotliv\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy by mohly v ot\u00e1zce Ukrajiny zakol\u00edsat, kdy\u017e by byly konfrontov\u00e1ny s na\u0161tvan\u00fdmi a chladn\u00fdmi voli\u010di.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Z\u00e1vislost Evropy na rusk\u00e9m plynu si samoz\u0159ejm\u011b zp\u016fsobuje sama.\u00a0Je\u0161t\u011b v roce 2014 poch\u00e1zelo z Ruska jen asi 20 % plynu v EU.\u00a0Na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2022 to bylo t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 40 %.\u00a0Navzdory varov\u00e1n\u00ed Washingtonu, N\u011bmecko, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomika kontinentu, po Putinov\u011b neleg\u00e1ln\u00ed anexi Krymu je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce zv\u00fd\u0161ilo svou z\u00e1vislost.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Berl\u00edn pova\u017eoval rusk\u00fd plyn za levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a udr\u017eiteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e alternativy.\u00a0Siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1vislosti tak\u00e9 odpov\u00eddala p\u011bt desetilet\u00ed star\u00e1 doktr\u00edna n\u011bmeck\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky v\u016f\u010di Sov\u011btsk\u00e9mu svazu\/Rusku, kter\u00e9 se \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 \u201ezm\u011bna prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm obchodu\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Zat\u00edmco ve zp\u011btn\u00e9m pohledu je podobn\u00e1 filozofie nebezpe\u010dn\u011b naivn\u00ed, a\u017e doned\u00e1vna formovala americkou politiku v\u016f\u010di \u010c\u00edn\u011b a vytv\u00e1\u0159ela z\u00e1vislosti, kter\u00e9 se v\u00fdrazn\u011b neli\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>2.Vztahy mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Po \u010dty\u0159i desetilet\u00ed, od v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 cesty tehdej\u0161\u00edho americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Richarda Nixona do \u010c\u00edny v roce 1972, usilovaly USA o lep\u0161\u00ed vztahy s Pekingem prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm u\u017e\u0161\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 integrace.\u00a0V\u011bci se za\u010daly m\u011bnit b\u011bhem druh\u00e9ho funk\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed Baracka Obamy, v reakci na svalnat\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed Si \u0164in-pchinga doma i v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, ne\u017e se zhroutily s obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lkou Donalda Trumpa.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Pokud v\u016fbec n\u011bco, Bidenova administrativa urychlila p\u0159echod od spolupr\u00e1ce ke konfrontaci pos\u00edlen\u00edm bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch alianc\u00ed v regionu se zem\u011bmi jako Austr\u00e1lie, zaveden\u00edm exportn\u00edch kontrol na pokro\u010dil\u00e9 technologie, jako jsou mikroprocesory, a de facto p\u0159\u00edslibem obrany Tchaj-wanu.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Cel\u00e9 video: \u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd prezident Si \u0164in-pching p\u0159ednese novoro\u010dn\u00ed projev 2020\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/PPmfo1zEqiI?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p><span>Den po Xiov\u011b projevu na sjezdu \u0159ekl americk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Antony Blinken publiku na Stanfordsk\u00e9 univerzit\u011b, \u017ee pokud jde o strategicky d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd Tchaj-wan, Peking je nyn\u00ed \u201eodhodl\u00e1n usilovat o znovusjednocen\u00ed v mnohem rychlej\u0161\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m r\u00e1mci\u201c ne\u017e d\u0159\u00edve.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>B\u011bhem n\u011bkolika posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f jsem mluvil se stovkami p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b evropsk\u00fdch v\u016fdc\u016f o sou\u010dasn\u00e9m geopolitick\u00e9m panoramatu.\u00a0Mnoz\u00ed popisovali t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed st\u00e1hnout se z Ruska.\u00a0Pro v\u011bt\u0161inu z nich v\u0161ak Rusko p\u0159edstavuje m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 5 % jejich podnik\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Na ot\u00e1zku, co by d\u011blali, kdyby se situace na Tchaj-wanu vyhrotila, se rozhostilo ohlu\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed ticho.\u00a0Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee jsou siln\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00ed na americk\u00e9m a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m trhu a jsou na nich vystaveni, v\u016fdci odv\u011btv\u00ed, jako je automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl a spot\u0159ebn\u00ed a luxusn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed, ochotn\u011b p\u0159izn\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee nemaj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd hern\u00ed pl\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>3.Populismus<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Jedn\u00edm z d\u016fvod\u016f, pro\u010d je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by americk\u00e1 politika v\u016f\u010di Pekingu zakol\u00edsala, je to, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna je jednou z m\u00e1la ot\u00e1zek, na kter\u00fdch se vysoce polarizovan\u00ed ameri\u010dt\u00ed voli\u010di shodnou.\u00a0V roce 2011 pouze 36 % Ameri\u010dan\u016f vn\u00edmalo \u010c\u00ednu jako nep\u0159\u00edznivou, zat\u00edmco 51 % ji pova\u017eovalo za pozitivn\u00ed.\u00a0Do roku 2022 bude 82 % proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b \u2013 toto \u010d\u00edslo p\u0159ekon\u00e1 pouze \u0160v\u00e9dsko, Japonsko a Austr\u00e1lie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Tak\u00e9 voli\u010di v z\u00e1padn\u00edch demokraci\u00edch st\u00e1le v\u00edce ned\u016fv\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed globalizaci.\u00a0V\u011bt\u0161ina z 28 p\u0159edn\u00edch ekonomik, poh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00e1 rostouc\u00ed ekonomickou nerovnost\u00ed, v roce 2017 \u0159ekla firm\u011b Edelman pro v\u00fdzkum trhu, \u017ee \u201eglobalizace n\u00e1s vede \u0161patn\u00fdm sm\u011brem\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Edelman v roce 2019 znepokojiv\u011b zjistil, \u017ee pouze 18 % respondent\u016f na rozvinut\u00fdch trz\u00edch souhlasilo s t\u00edm, \u017ee \u201esyst\u00e9m pro m\u011b funguje\u201c, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e 34 % si nen\u00ed jist\u00fdch a 48 % uvedlo, \u017ee jim syst\u00e9m selh\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Paraleln\u011b s t\u00edm sl\u00e1bla podpora demokracie, zejm\u00e9na mezi mlad\u00fdmi lidmi.\u00a0Politologov\u00e9 Yascha Mounk a Roberto Stefan Foa z Johns Hopkins a Cambridge University v roce 2017 zjistili, \u017ee 75 % Ameri\u010dan\u016f narozen\u00fdch ve 30. letech 20. stolet\u00ed v\u011b\u0159ilo, \u017ee \u201eje d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 \u017e\u00edt v demokracii\u201c, zat\u00edmco u mileni\u00e1l\u016f to bylo pouh\u00fdch 28 %.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Podobn\u00e9 trendy lze pozorovat v mnoha dal\u0161\u00edch zem\u00edch.\u00a0To p\u0159ivedlo k moci populisty, od Ma\u010fara Viktora Orbana a Brazilce Jaira Bolsonara a\u017e po Donalda Trumpa a Giorgiu Meloniovou \u2013 nejkrajn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pravicovou v\u016fdkyni It\u00e1lie od dob Mussoliniho.\u00a0Mimochodem It\u00e1lie m\u011bla v pr\u016fzkumu z roku 2021 druhou nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed m\u00edru nespokojenosti s demokraci\u00ed na sv\u011bt\u011b, p\u0159ekonalo ji pouze \u0158ecko.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>4.Inflace<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Tato hlubok\u00e1 nespokojenost s p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00edm politicko-ekonomick\u00fdm \u0159\u00e1dem se objevila p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e inflace dos\u00e1hla \u00farovn\u011b, kter\u00e1 nebyla zaznamen\u00e1na za posledn\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i desetilet\u00ed.\u00a0Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb v reakci na to jsou americk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka a Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka ochotny vyvolat recesi.\u00a0V\u011bt\u0161ina analytik\u016f nyn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 jeden na obou stran\u00e1ch Atlantiku v roce 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Mezit\u00edm \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 politika nulov\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb nad\u00e1le oslabuje druhou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomiku sv\u011bta, zat\u00edmco jej\u00ed bojuj\u00edc\u00ed realitn\u00ed sektor hroz\u00ed, \u017ee pohlt\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, hlavn\u00ed ekonom MMF, ne\u0161et\u0159il slovy na v\u00fdro\u010dn\u00edm zased\u00e1n\u00ed organizace za\u010d\u00e1tkem \u0159\u00edjna, kdy\u017e varoval, \u017ee \u201enejtemn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hodiny\u201c teprve p\u0159ijdou a \u017ee vyhl\u00eddky jsou \u201evelmi bolestiv\u00e9\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm strachem je v\u0161ak stagflace \u2013 zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb, kter\u00e9 dus\u00ed r\u016fst, tla\u010d\u00ed nezam\u011bstnanost nahoru a nesr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b inflaci.\u00a0Interakce takov\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 dynamiky s anti-establishmentov\u00fdm populismem by jist\u011b hluboce destabilizovala ji\u017e tak ot\u0159esen\u00fd sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>\u010cty\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Na z\u00e1klad\u011b v\u00fd\u0161e nast\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch sil jsem po\u017e\u00e1dal podnikatele ze v\u0161ech sektor\u016f, aby zv\u00e1\u017eili \u010dty\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e.\u00a0Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e nejsou o p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed budoucnosti.\u00a0Jde o p\u0159\u00edpravu na budoucnost uprost\u0159ed nejistoty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Mo\u017enosti nach\u00e1z\u00edm ve dvou dimenz\u00edch \u2013 jedn\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 a druh\u00e9 geopolitick\u00e9.\u00a0V ekonomick\u00e9 dimenzi je nejlep\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky a tv\u016frci politik dostanou inflaci rychle pod kontrolu, \u017ee recese na hlavn\u00edch trz\u00edch budou kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 a \u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed za\u010dne v druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b roku 2023 a zrychl\u00ed se v roce 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>V druh\u00e9m extr\u00e9mu by se mohlo objevit agresivn\u00ed zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb a zhor\u0161it struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed slabiny glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky, co\u017e by vedlo k dlouhodob\u00e9 stagflaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Podobn\u011b s geopolitikou: Vladimir Putin by mohl naj\u00edt \u00fanik z Ukrajiny, kter\u00fd by zachr\u00e1nil tv\u00e1\u0159, zat\u00edmco Si \u0164in-pching, zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd pro sv\u00e9 t\u0159et\u00ed funk\u010dn\u00ed obdob\u00ed, by mohl omezit svou r\u00e9toriku na Tchaj-wan.\u00a0Nebo z pesimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edho pohledu by se situace na Ukrajin\u011b mohla drasticky zhor\u0161it, kup\u0159.\u00a0B. pokud se Putin rozhodne pou\u017e\u00edt taktick\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b nebo pokud se NATO p\u0159\u00edmo \u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Mezit\u00edm by Xi mohl d\u00e1t Tchaj-wanu ultim\u00e1tum z nacionalistick\u00e9ho nad\u0161en\u00ed, nebo by ne\u00famysln\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed s\u00edly kteroukoli stranou mohlo vyvolat \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed konflikt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Kombinac\u00ed t\u011bchto r\u016fzn\u00fdch mo\u017enost\u00ed jsem vyvinul sv\u00e9 \u010dty\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e.\u00a0Pro ilustraci uv\u00e1d\u00edm ka\u017ed\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 do dek\u00e1dy 20. stolet\u00ed \u2013 ne proto, \u017ee by se historie opakovala, ale abych uk\u00e1zal, co je v s\u00e1zce a jak r\u016fzn\u00e9 jsou mo\u017en\u00e9 budoucnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>\u010cty\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"jetpack-lazy-image jetpack-lazy-image--handled aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/491320\/original\/file-20221024-6031-cvi0lv.png?w=780&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" data-lazy-loaded=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>Kdy\u017e se zd\u00e1lo, \u017ee konec pandemie je v nedohlednu, n\u011bkolik pozorovatel\u016f p\u0159edpov\u00eddalo n\u00e1vrat \u0159vouc\u00edch dvac\u00e1t\u00fdch let.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u201eRoaring Twenties\u201c se objevila po prvn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, kdy Spole\u010dnost n\u00e1rod\u016f zah\u00e1jila kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 obdob\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce, obnovil se sv\u011btov\u00fd obchod a ekonomika se zotavila.\u00a0Podobn\u00fd jev je mo\u017en\u00fd i dnes, proto\u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed polevuje a ekonomika se rychle zotavuje.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Dok\u00e1\u017eeme si ale tak\u00e9 p\u0159edstavit ekonomick\u00fd vzestup, ani\u017e by polevilo glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed.\u00a0Vzpom\u00edn\u00e1m si na po\u010d\u00e1tek 80. let, kdy p\u0159edseda Fedu Paul Volcker jednal rozhodn\u011b, aby sn\u00ed\u017eil inflaci, a po kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 recesi se r\u016fst obnovil a akciov\u00fd trh zaznamenal boom.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u00farovni v\u0161ak byla situace m\u00e9n\u011b r\u016f\u017eov\u00e1.\u00a0Americko-sov\u011btsk\u00e9 uvoln\u011bn\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed v 70. letech skon\u010dilo bojkotem olympijsk\u00fdch her v letech 1980 a 1984, z\u00e1stupnou v\u00e1lkou v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu a obnoven\u00fdmi z\u00e1vody v jadern\u00e9m zbrojen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Sedmdes\u00e1t\u00e1 l\u00e9ta je m\u016fj t\u0159et\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159.\u00a0\u010casto jsou uv\u00e1d\u011bny jako p\u0159\u00edklad stagflace s rostouc\u00edmi cenami, trvale vysokou nezam\u011bstnanost\u00ed a mnoha pracovn\u00edmi spory.\u00a0Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed, alespo\u0148 mezi velmocemi, se v\u0161ak zm\u00edrnilo.\u00a0Film \u0160pi\u00f3n, kter\u00fd m\u011b miloval zas\u00e1hl zeitgeist, kdy\u017e se James Bond spojil se sov\u011btsk\u00fdm agentem, aby zachr\u00e1nili sv\u011bt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Porovnejte to s t\u0159ic\u00e1t\u00fdmi l\u00e9ty, dal\u0161\u00edm desetilet\u00edm 20. stolet\u00ed charakterizovan\u00fdm vysokou nezam\u011bstnanost\u00ed, n\u00edzk\u00fdm r\u016fstem a ekonomick\u00fdmi nepokoji.\u00a0Fa\u0161ismus smetl rod\u00edc\u00ed se demokracie, glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed eskalovalo a sv\u011bt za\u017eil katastrofu, kter\u00e1 nem\u00e1 v historii lidstva obdoby.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Dne\u0161n\u00ed sv\u011bt je velmi odli\u0161n\u00fd od desetilet\u00ed v t\u011bchto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u00edch.\u00a0Technologie umo\u017enila neb\u00fdvalou propojenost, z\u00e1jmov\u00e9 skupiny se staly mnohem siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce a finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9my v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161ily vz\u00e1jemnou ekonomickou z\u00e1vislost.\u00a0Douf\u00e1 se, \u017ee hr\u016fzy 20. stolet\u00ed v kombinaci s nep\u0159edstavitelnou ni\u010divost\u00ed modern\u00edch zbran\u00ed omez\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed eskalaci konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Kontrast mezi desetilet\u00edmi v\u0161ak zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, jak zm\u011bny pouh\u00fdch dvou prom\u011bnn\u00fdch mohou odd\u011blit skv\u011bl\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 od dobr\u00e9ho, \u0161patn\u00e9ho a skute\u010dn\u011b hrozn\u00e9ho.\u00a0Pt\u00e1t se, co je nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, je \u0161patn\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka.\u00a0Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, aby vedouc\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 podnik\u016f, vl\u00e1dy a jednotlivci uznali, \u017ee sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d, kter\u00fd existoval d\u0159\u00edve, ji\u017e neplat\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\" style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"jetpack-lazy-image jetpack-lazy-image--handled aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/asiatimes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Globalization.jpg?resize=1200%2C788&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"649\" height=\"426\" data-lazy-loaded=\"1\" \/><figcaption><span><br \/>\n<em>Technologie propojuj\u00ed sv\u011bt r\u016fzn\u00fdmi nov\u00fdmi zp\u016fsoby, ale star\u00e1 \u00e9ra globalizace skon\u010dila.\u00a0Obr\u00e1zek: Pixabay<\/em><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>Nejodoln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed spole\u010dnosti budou ty, kter\u00e9 zalo\u017e\u00ed sv\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed na jasn\u00e9m \u00fa\u010delu a siln\u00fdch hodnot\u00e1ch, nikoli na rigidn\u00edch strategi\u00edch nebo ak\u010dn\u00edch pl\u00e1nech.\u00a0Globalizace se n\u00e1hle nezastav\u00ed, ale spole\u010dnosti budou st\u00e1le v\u00edce \u010dinit rozhodnut\u00ed, kter\u00e1 jdou nad r\u00e1mec hled\u00e1n\u00ed nejlevn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho dodavatele nebo nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho nov\u00e9ho trhu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Dal\u0161\u00ed roky tak\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejsou nejvhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dobou pro to, aby se firmy sna\u017eily o maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed efektivitu.\u00a0Hotovost bude kr\u00e1lem, stagnace dobr\u00e1 a flexibilita \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1.\u00a0Pro podnikatele bude tak\u00e9 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9, aby proaktivn\u011b sd\u011blovali, co zast\u00e1vaj\u00ed \u2013 ide\u00e1ln\u011b je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e se jich zept\u00e1 na budoucnost jejich \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho podnik\u00e1n\u00ed, jak se vypo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1vaj\u00ed s nepokoji mezi zam\u011bstnanci nebo zda v\u011b\u0159\u00ed ve svobodn\u00e9 a spravedliv\u00e9 volby.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Toto obdob\u00ed nepokoj\u016f m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 nebo dlouh\u00e9 a dopad na podniky a spole\u010dnosti se m\u016f\u017ee pohybovat od mal\u00fdch a\u017e po dramatick\u00e9, s v\u00fdznamn\u00fdmi rozd\u00edly mezi pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdmi odv\u011btv\u00edmi a regiony.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>V\u0161ichni bychom se m\u011bli zab\u00fdvat z\u00e1kladn\u00ed dynamikou a zv\u00e1\u017eit jej\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed dopad na podniky, vl\u00e1dy a spole\u010dnost, abychom mohli efektivn\u011b proplouvat budouc\u00edmi pe\u0159ejemi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span><strong>David Bach<\/strong> je p\u0159edsedou Rio Tinto pro zapojen\u00ed stakeholder\u016f a profesorem strategie a politick\u00e9 ekonomie na Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm institutu pro rozvoj managementu (IMD).<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/asiatimes.com\/2022\/10\/four-scenarios-for-a-world-in-disorder\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 obdob\u00ed chaosu a v\u0159avy m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 nebo dlouh\u00e9, ale bu\u010fte si jisti, \u017ee&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":15041,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,279,2484,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17457"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17457"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17457\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15041"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}