{"id":17394,"date":"2022-10-28T01:03:01","date_gmt":"2022-10-27T23:03:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=17394"},"modified":"2022-10-27T16:12:13","modified_gmt":"2022-10-27T14:12:13","slug":"opravdu-znate-sve-riziko-umrti-na-covid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/10\/28\/opravdu-znate-sve-riziko-umrti-na-covid\/","title":{"rendered":"Opravdu zn\u00e1te sv\u00e9 riziko \u00famrt\u00ed na COVID?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
\n
\n

Pokud st\u00e1le propad\u00e1te panice ohledn\u011b COVID, je \u010das p\u0159estat.\u00a0S pochybn\u00fdmi testy, platbami 100 000 dolar\u016f nemocnic\u00edm a \u201esmrt na ventil\u00e1torech\u201c to byla od za\u010d\u00e1tku vykonstruovan\u00e1 krize.<\/span><\/p>\n

HISTORIE NA POHLED<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • Pr\u016fzkumy v letech 2020 a 2021 uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 jsou velmi zmaten\u00ed a dezinformovan\u00ed o sv\u00e9m skute\u010dn\u00e9m riziku \u00famrt\u00ed na COVID.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Podle nov\u00e9 p\u0159edtiskov\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy profesora Johna Ioannidise ji\u017e nen\u00ed d\u016fvod, aby n\u011bkdo \u017eil ve strachu, bez ohledu na v\u011bk, proto\u017ee riziko \u00famrt\u00ed na COVID je \u2013 a v\u017edy bylo \u2013 trvale velmi n\u00edzk\u00e9.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • P\u0159ed zaveden\u00edm o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed proti COVID bylo riziko \u00famrt\u00ed na COVID pro osoby ve v\u011bku 19 let a mlad\u0161\u00ed 0,0003 %;\u00a0pouze 3 z 1 milionu lid\u00ed naka\u017een\u00fdch COVID zem\u0159ely v tomto v\u011bku.\u00a0Ve v\u011bku 60 a\u017e 69 let byla \u00famrtnost 0,501 %, tedy zem\u0159el 1 z 200 naka\u017een\u00fdch.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Nov\u00e9 d\u016fkazy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee vakc\u00edny zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed, \u017ee se n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed lid\u00e9 stanou imunitn\u00ed nedostate\u010dnost\u00ed, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se zvy\u0161uje riziko \u00famrt\u00ed na infekci SARS-CoV-2, a to i u nyn\u00ed m\u00edrn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch kmen\u016f.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Skute\u010dn\u00e9 riziko \u00famrt\u00ed na COVID-19, na z\u00e1klad\u011b zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f Irish Census Bureau a Central Bureau of Statistics pro roky 2020 a 2021, je n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed: Mezi osobami mlad\u0161\u00edmi 70 let byla \u00famrtnost 0,014 %, mezi jednotlivci do 50 let na 0,002 %, co\u017e odpov\u00edd\u00e1 riziku 1 ku 50 000, tedy p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b stejn\u011b jako riziko \u00famrt\u00ed v d\u016fsledku vdechnut\u00ed ohn\u011b nebo kou\u0159e.\u00a0U osob mlad\u0161\u00edch 25 let byla \u00famrtnost 0,00018 %, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje riziko \u00famrt\u00ed na COVID 1 z 500 000.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Opravdu zn\u00e1te sv\u00e9 riziko \u00famrt\u00ed na COVID-19?\u00a0Podle The Hill pr\u016fzkum proveden\u00fd v polovin\u011b srpna 2020 zjistil, \u017ee \u201eAmeri\u010dan\u00e9 maj\u00ed hrubou mylnou p\u0159edstavu o riziku \u00famrt\u00ed na COVID-19 nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d r\u016fzn\u00fdmi v\u011bkov\u00fdmi skupinami\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

    V pr\u016fm\u011bru m\u011bli Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 dojem, \u017ee lid\u00e9 mlad\u0161\u00ed 44 let maj\u00ed na sv\u011bdom\u00ed asi 30 % \u00famrt\u00ed, zat\u00edmco skute\u010dn\u00fd po\u010det byl m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 3 %.\u00a0V t\u00e9 dob\u011b 58 % lid\u00ed ve v\u011bku 18\u201324 let uvedlo, \u017ee se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed \u201ev\u00fdznamn\u00fdch zdravotn\u00edch n\u00e1sledk\u016f\u201c, pokud se nakaz\u00ed virem, i kdy\u017e ve skute\u010dnosti se v t\u00e9to v\u011bkov\u00e9 skupin\u011b vyskytlo pouze 0,1 % \u00famrt\u00ed souvisej\u00edc\u00edch s COVID.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Podobn\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla byla zji\u0161t\u011bna v dubnu 2021, kdy Washington Examiner ozn\u00e1mil pr\u016fzkumy, kter\u00e9 uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee \u201ealarmismus COVID-19\u201c zp\u016fsobil, \u017ee se lid\u00e9 ve v\u011bku 18\u201324 let \u201enejv\u00edce ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed n\u00e1vratu do norm\u00e1ln\u00edho \u017eivota.\u201c \u2013 a\u010dkoli jsou zdaleka nejm\u00e9n\u011b zraniteln\u00ed. na COVID-19.“<\/span><\/p>\n

    V t\u00e9 dob\u011b byla hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e1 \u00famrtnost v t\u00e9to skupin\u011b 0,006 %, ale polovina uvedla, \u017ee byla nerv\u00f3zn\u00ed ze socializace.\u00a0Naproti tomu ve skupin\u011b s nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edm rizikem, ve v\u011bku 55 a v\u00edce let, bylo p\u0159i jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s lidmi nerv\u00f3zn\u00ed pouze 31 %, zat\u00edmco 65 % ne.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Zm\u011bnilo se n\u011bco?\u00a0Anekdoticky se zd\u00e1, \u017ee mlad\u00e1 (a zd\u00e1nliv\u011b zdrav\u00e1) populace v dne\u0161n\u00ed dob\u011b nos\u00ed masky, zat\u00edmco v\u011bt\u0161ina star\u0161\u00edch lid\u00ed oce\u0148uje svobodu znovu voln\u011b d\u00fdchat.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Podle nov\u00e9 p\u0159edtiskov\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy profesora Johna Ioannidise ji\u017e nen\u00ed d\u016fvod, aby n\u011bkdo \u017eil ve strachu, bez ohledu na v\u011bk, proto\u017ee riziko \u00famrt\u00ed na COVID je \u2013 a v\u017edy bylo \u2013 trvale velmi n\u00edzk\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u00damrtnost na infekce p\u0159ed o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00edm<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    Ioannidisova pr\u00e1ce, publikovan\u00e1 13. \u0159\u00edjna 2022 na p\u0159edtiskov\u00e9m serveru medRxiv, zkoumala n\u00e1rodn\u00ed studie s\u00e9roprevalence z doby p\u0159ed porodem, aby odhadla m\u00edru \u00famrtnosti souvisej\u00edc\u00ed s v\u011bkem (IFR) na COVID-19 u lid\u00ed ve v\u011bku od narozen\u00ed do 69 let ur\u010dit.\u00a0Jak je uvedeno ve shrnut\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u201e\u00damrtnost na infekci (IFR) zp\u016fsobenou COVID-19 u star\u0161\u00edch lid\u00ed bez o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed nebo p\u0159edchoz\u00ed infekce je t\u0159eba p\u0159esn\u011b odhadnout, proto\u017ee 94 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 populace je mlad\u0161\u00edch 70 let a 86 % je mlad\u0161\u00edch 60 let.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

    Systematick\u00fdm vyhled\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm SeroTracker a PubMed\u2026 jsme identifikovali 40 vhodn\u00fdch n\u00e1rodn\u00edch s\u00e9roprevalen\u010dn\u00edch studi\u00ed z 38 zem\u00ed s \u00fadaji o s\u00e9roprevalenci p\u0159ed o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00edm.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

    Pro 29 zem\u00ed (24 s vysok\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edjmy, 5 dal\u0161\u00edch) byly k dispozici ve\u0159ejn\u011b dostupn\u00e9 \u00fadaje o \u00famrt\u00ed na COVID-19 a \u00fadaje o v\u011bkov\u011b rozvrstven\u00e9 s\u00e9roprevalenci, kter\u00e9 byly zahrnuty do prim\u00e1rn\u00ed anal\u00fdzy.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

    Na z\u00e1klad\u011b t\u011bchto dat auto\u0159i vypo\u010d\u00edtali n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 IFR:<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n
    • Od narozen\u00ed do 19 let: 0,0003 % = 3 z 1 000 000 naka\u017een\u00fdch zem\u0159eli<\/span><\/li>\n
    • 20 a\u017e 29 let: 0,003 % = zem\u0159eli 3 ze 100 000 naka\u017een\u00fdch<\/span><\/li>\n
    • 30 a\u017e 39 let: 0,011 % = zem\u0159elo 1,1 z 10 000 naka\u017een\u00fdch<\/span><\/li>\n
    • 40 a\u017e 49 let: 0,035 % = 3,5 z 10 000 naka\u017een\u00fdch zem\u0159elo<\/span><\/li>\n
    • 50 a\u017e 59 let: 0,129 % = zem\u0159elo 1,3 z 1 000 naka\u017een\u00fdch<\/span><\/li>\n
    • 60 a\u017e 69 let: 0,501 % = 1 z 200 naka\u017een\u00fdch zem\u0159e<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

       <\/p>\n

      \n
      \"\"
      Zdroj: Ioannidis et al.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

      Celkov\u011b byl medi\u00e1n IFR pro v\u0161echny v\u011bkov\u00e9 skupiny dohromady (od narozen\u00ed do 69 let) 0,095 %, s mezikvartiln\u00edm rozmez\u00edm 0,036\u20130,125 %.\u00a0P\u0159i omezen\u00ed v\u011bkov\u00e9ho rozmez\u00ed na v\u011bkovou skupinu mezi narozen\u00edm a 59 lety byl medi\u00e1n IFR je\u0161t\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, pouze 0,035 %, s mezikvartiln\u00edm rozmez\u00edm 0,013 \u2013 0,056 %.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Jin\u00fdmi slovy, p\u0159ed zaveden\u00edm vakc\u00edny proti COVID zem\u0159eli t\u0159i z ka\u017ed\u00fdch 10 000 naka\u017een\u00fdch lid\u00ed mlad\u0161\u00edch 59 let.\u00a0Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1te na cel\u00e9 v\u011bkov\u00e9 rozmez\u00ed \u2013 od narozen\u00ed do 69 let \u2013 zem\u0159elo 7 z 10 000 naka\u017een\u00fdch.\u00a0Podle autor\u016f:<\/span><\/p>\n

      \u201eCelosv\u011btov\u011b m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt IFR p\u0159ed vakcinac\u00ed 0,03 % a 0,07 % u 0-59 a 0-69 let, v tomto po\u0159ad\u00ed.\u00a0Tyto odhady IFR u nestar\u0161\u00edch populac\u00ed jsou ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e nazna\u010dovaly p\u0159edchoz\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010dty… Mezi zem\u011bmi byly velk\u00e9 rozd\u00edly, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b kv\u016fli r\u016fzn\u00fdm komorbidit\u00e1m a dal\u0161\u00edm faktor\u016fm.\u201c<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

      N\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00fd graf ukazuje r\u016fzn\u00e9 IFR pro populaci v r\u016fzn\u00fdch zem\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
      \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

      Jak uv\u00e1d\u00ed Daily Skeptic: \u201eV\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed sk\u00f3re pro sedm nejlep\u0161\u00edch [zem\u00ed] nazna\u010duje, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00e9 rozd\u00edly mohou b\u00fdt artefaktem, nap\u0159.\u00a0B. mimochodem, jak se po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed \u00famrt\u00ed na COVID-19, zejm\u00e9na tam, kde je \u00famrtnost podobn\u00e1…\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

      Byly tak\u00e9 zji\u0161t\u011bny velk\u00e9 rozd\u00edly v IFR mezi zem\u011bmi pro stejn\u00e9 v\u011bkov\u00e9 skupiny, kter\u00e9 by podle autor\u016f mohly b\u00fdt zp\u016fsobeny:<\/span><\/p>\n

        \n
      • Datov\u00e9 artefakty, jako jsou nep\u0159esn\u00e1 m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed s\u00e9roprevalence nebo nep\u0159esn\u00e9 hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed \u00famrt\u00ed<\/span><\/li>\n
      • P\u0159\u00edtomnost a z\u00e1va\u017enost komorbidit \u2013 Nap\u0159\u00edklad obezita postihuje 41,9 % populace v USA, ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s 2 % ve Vietnamu a 4 % v Indii.<\/span><\/li>\n
      • Prevalence k\u0159ehkosti (po\u010det star\u0161\u00edch lid\u00ed \u017eij\u00edc\u00edch v domovech pro seniory)<\/span><\/li>\n
      • Rozd\u00edly v managementu zdrav\u00ed a soci\u00e1ln\u00ed podpo\u0159e<\/span><\/li>\n
      • Prevalence probl\u00e9m\u016f s drogami<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        M\u00edra p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed p\u0159ed o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00edm COVID<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

        P\u0159i p\u0159edlo\u017een\u00ed stejn\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f jako u m\u00edry p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed p\u0159ed injekc\u00ed COVID (tj. v roce 2020) nam\u00edsto \u00famrtnosti je obr\u00e1zek n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n

          \n
        • Od narozen\u00ed do 19 let: 99,9997% m\u00edra p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed<\/span><\/li>\n
        • 20 a\u017e 29 let: 99,997% m\u00edra p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed<\/span><\/li>\n
        • 30 a\u017e 39 let: 99,989% m\u00edra p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed<\/span><\/li>\n
        • 40 a\u017e 49 let: 99,965% m\u00edra p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed<\/span><\/li>\n
        • 50 a\u017e 59 let: 99,871% m\u00edra p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed<\/span><\/li>\n
        • 60 a\u017e 69 let: 99,499% m\u00edra p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          Tato \u010d\u00edsla jsou z doby p\u0159ed o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00edm proti COVID.\u00a0Nov\u00e9 d\u016fkazy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee vakc\u00edny zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed, \u017ee n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed lid\u00e9 se stanou imunitn\u00ed nedostate\u010dnost\u00ed, co\u017e zvy\u0161uje jejich riziko \u00famrt\u00ed na infekci SARS-CoV-2, a to i u nyn\u00ed m\u00edrn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch kmen\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

          Realistick\u00e1 srovn\u00e1n\u00ed rizik pomoc\u00ed irsk\u00fdch dat<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n