{"id":16824,"date":"2022-10-16T01:54:14","date_gmt":"2022-10-15T23:54:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=16824"},"modified":"2022-10-16T15:03:47","modified_gmt":"2022-10-16T13:03:47","slug":"jan-campbell-pred-sjezdem-ks-ciny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/10\/16\/jan-campbell-pred-sjezdem-ks-ciny\/","title":{"rendered":"Jan Campbell: P\u0159ed sjezdem KS \u010c\u00edny"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V\u00a0\u00favodu p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1m jeden ze z\u00e1kladn\u00edch princip\u016f sjezd\u016f politick\u00fdch stran u moci: B\u011bhem velk\u00fdch zased\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0mnoha \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edky, m\u00e9dii a pozorovateli se oby\u010dejn\u011b \u0159e\u0161\u00ed mal\u00e9 v\u011bci. Ty v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed a velk\u00e9 probl\u00e9my se \u0159e\u0161\u00ed v\u00a0mal\u00e9m kruhu, oby\u010dejn\u011b beze sv\u011bdk\u016f a bez konzultac\u00ed s\u00a0ob\u010dany.<\/p>\n

Z\u00edtra (16. \u0159\u00edjna) za\u010dne v Pekingu 20. kongres komunistick\u00e9 strany \u010c\u00edny. Rozhodnut\u00ed, kter\u00e1 tam budou u\u010din\u011bna, ur\u010d\u00ed budouc\u00ed politick\u00fd kurz \u010c\u00edny a ovlivn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti, v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch v\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9 kotlin\u011b. A to bez ohledu na p\u0159edem uveden\u00fd z\u00e1kladn\u00ed princip sjezd\u016f politick\u00fdch stran u moci a bez ohledu na to, zda se spojenc\u016fm, p\u0159\u00e1tel\u016fm nebo nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u016fm \u010cLR to l\u00edb\u00ed nebo ne.<\/p>\n

To m\u00e1lo zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9, kter\u00e9 jsem zachytil v\u00a0\u010desk\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch na t\u00e9ma 20. sjezdu KS \u010c\u00edny p\u0159edstavuje informa\u010dn\u00ed a vzd\u011bl\u00e1vac\u00ed deficit, \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b i dezinformaci. Deficit tvo\u0159\u00ed d\u016fvod pro mne nab\u00eddnout kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 a na faktech zalo\u017een\u00e9 informov\u00e1n\u00ed o sjezdu, jeho p\u0159edstaviteln\u00fdch v\u00fdsledc\u00edch a \u00a0pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdch n\u00e1sledc\u00edch pro vztah \u010cLR s EU, v\u010detn\u011b bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed \u010cR a\u00a0\u010cLR. V\u011bdom\u011b nebudu podrobn\u011bji popisovat sv\u00e9 hodnocen\u00ed n\u00e1sledk\u016f sjezdu pro USA a RF.<\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00fd stav<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Od vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Lidov\u00e9 republiky Mao Ce-tungem v roce 1949 vl\u00e1dne v \u010cLR komunistick\u00e1 strana \u010c\u00edny. Je pravda, \u017ee existuj\u00ed i jin\u00e9 strany. P\u0159i v\u00fdkonu moci v\u0161ak nehraj\u00ed rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed roli. Na sjezdu strany, kter\u00fd se kon\u00e1 ka\u017ed\u00fdch p\u011bt let, jsou nov\u011b jmenov\u00e1ny v\u0161echny v\u00fdbory komunistick\u00e9 strany. Ta m\u00e1 dnes p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 97 milion\u016f \u010dlen\u016f, z\u00a0nich\u017e m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e jedna t\u0159etina jsou \u017eeny. Ty tvo\u0159\u00ed 49% z (1,4 miliardy) obyvatel \u010c\u00edny. V sou\u010dasn\u00e9m p\u011btadvaceti\u010dlenn\u00e9m politbyru je jen jedna \u017eena: vicepremi\u00e9rka Sun \u010cchun-lan (nar. 1950). Ta vzhledem ke sv\u00e9mu v\u011bku bude s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed hrani\u010d\u00edc\u00ed s\u00a0jistotou ve funkci kon\u010dit. Z\u00a0uveden\u00e9ho vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed genderov\u00e1 nerovnost ve smyslu EU je proto pro Brusel trnem v\u00a0oku.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edpravy na sjezd strany, kter\u00fd se bude konat ve Velk\u00e9 s\u00edni lidu v\u00a0Pekingu, prob\u00edhaj\u00ed z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti v tajnosti. Jsou \u0159\u00edzeny speci\u00e1ln\u011b jmenovan\u00fdm v\u00fdborem, kter\u00fd podle pozorovatel\u016f vede s\u00e1m Si. P\u0159\u00edpravn\u00fd v\u00fdbor jmenuje 2296 deleg\u00e1t\u016f na sjezdu strany. Deleg\u00e1ti se rekrutuj\u00ed ze v\u0161ech soci\u00e1ln\u00edch skupin. V\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m, \u017ee zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed d\u016fraz byl kladen na loajalitu k\u00a0Si a na kvalitu \u010dlen\u016f. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m tak\u00e9, \u017ee asi t\u0159etinu deleg\u00e1t\u016f sjezdu tvo\u0159\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 strany z \u0159ad prost\u00fdch lid\u00ed. Asi polovina m\u00e1 vysoko\u0161kolsk\u00e9 vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed, 12 procent pat\u0159\u00ed k etnick\u00fdm men\u0161in\u00e1m. Pouze 27 procent jsou \u017eeny.<\/p>\n

Sjezd strany bude projedn\u00e1vat pracovn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vu gener\u00e1ln\u00edho tajemn\u00edka a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 zm\u011bny \u00fastavy strany. Posledn\u00ed den, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b 22. \u0159\u00edjna, deleg\u00e1ti zvol\u00ed nov\u00fd \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed v\u00fdbor a p\u0159ijmou zm\u011bny stranick\u00e9 \u00fastavy. Kr\u00e1tce po sjezdu se \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed v\u00fdbor sejde na sv\u00e9m prvn\u00edm plen\u00e1rn\u00edm zased\u00e1n\u00ed a zvol\u00ed \u010dleny politbyra, jako\u017e i \u010dleny st\u00e1l\u00e9ho v\u00fdboru a gener\u00e1ln\u00edho tajemn\u00edka. T\u00edm je od roku 2012 Si \u0164in-pching, Tento v\u00a0podstat\u011b krizov\u00fd mana\u017eer KS byl zvolen na 18. sjezdu KS \u010c\u00edny a nahradil Chu \u0164in-tchaa ve funkci gener\u00e1ln\u00edho tajemn\u00edka komunistick\u00e9 strany.<\/p>\n

P\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1m, \u017ee inaugurace Si p\u0159edstavuje hlubok\u00fd zlom v modern\u00ed historii \u010c\u00edny. Pro\u010d? Proto\u017ee: 1) Si ukon\u010dil princip kolektivn\u00edho veden\u00ed uveden\u00fd reform\u00e1torem Teng Siao-pchingem (1904-1997), o kter\u00e9m jsem podrobn\u011b psal v\u00a0knize 100 let KS (ISBN 978-80-270-8820-1). 2) Si v\u00a0roce 2018 pozastavil limit dvou funk\u010dn\u00edch obdob\u00ed prezidenta. 3) Si inicioval boj proti korupci s\u00a0heslem – Korupce ven – discipl\u00edna dovnit\u0159. Dokazuj\u00ed to vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed cca 4.7 milion\u016f \u010dlen\u016f strany a ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 odsouzen\u00ed k\u00a0trestu smrti mj. ministra a \u0161\u00e9fa policie kv\u016fli korupci.<\/p>\n

Pl\u00e9num jmenuje \u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed vojenskou komisi a \u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed disciplin\u00e1rn\u00ed komisi. Vedouc\u00edm vojensk\u00e9 komise je Si. Disciplin\u00e1rn\u00ed komise je odpov\u011bdn\u00e1 za st\u00edh\u00e1n\u00ed korupce. Tato v\u00fdb\u011brov\u00e1 \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed jsou politick\u00fdmi elitami na Z\u00e1pad\u011b hodnocena jako do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry netransparentn\u00ed a nedemokratick\u00e1 a zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 na upevn\u011bn\u00ed moci, v\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Si.<\/p>\n

Od n\u00e1stupu Si \u0164in-pchinga do funkce v roce 2012 se strana sna\u017eila r\u016fst po\u010dtu \u010dlen\u016f omezit a po\u017eadovala posun v budov\u00e1n\u00ed strany sm\u011brem k optimalizaci struktury, zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed kvality a regulaci p\u0159\u00edlivu nov\u00fdch \u010dlen\u016f. V\u00fdsledkem je, \u017ee cesta ke \u010dlenstv\u00ed v KS \u010c\u00edny dnes nen\u00ed snadn\u00e1. Pod\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ihl\u00e1\u0161ky se stalo n\u011bkolikalet\u00fdm prov\u011b\u0159ovac\u00edm procesem a v\u011bt\u0161ina uchaze\u010d\u016f se o \u010dlenstv\u00ed pokou\u0161\u00ed n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t, ne\u017e jsou p\u0159ijati. I s\u00e1m Si podle vlastn\u00edch slov \u017e\u00e1dal o \u010dlenstv\u00ed desetkr\u00e1t, na jeho opakovan\u00e9m nep\u0159ijet\u00ed se v\u0161ak tehdy podepsal rodinn\u00fd st\u00edn po otci.<\/p>\n

Skupina bl\u00edzk\u00e1 Si, kter\u00e1 byla po jeho n\u00e1stupu do funkce v roce 2012 v podstat\u011b nepatrn\u00e1, se stala v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu \u010dasu dominantn\u00ed frakc\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho politick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu. Jej\u00edmi \u010dleny jsou nap\u0159\u00edklad b\u00fdval\u00ed kolegov\u00e9 a podporovatel\u00e9 Si z provinci\u00ed Fu-\u0165ien a \u010ce-\u0165iang, kde p\u016fsobil v letech 1985 a\u017e 2007. \u0158ada dal\u0161\u00edch souputn\u00edk\u016f poch\u00e1z\u00ed z domovsk\u00e9 provincie \u0160en-si a tak\u00e9 z jeho alma mater, univerzity \u010cching-chua.<\/p>\n

Dv\u011b d\u0159\u00edve dominantn\u00ed frakce ve stran\u011b \u2013 frakce Komunistick\u00e9 ligy ml\u00e1de\u017ee a \u0160anghajsk\u00e1 frakce reprezentovan\u00e9 b\u00fdval\u00fdmi gener\u00e1ln\u00edmi tajemn\u00edky Chu \u0164in-tchaem a \u0164iang Ce-minem \u2013 v\u00fdrazn\u011b ztratily na v\u00fdznamu. Podle hodnocen\u00ed mn\u011b dostupn\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v a dojm\u016f dva \u010dlenov\u00e9 s vazbami na \u0161anghajskou frakci, v\u00fdkonn\u00fd m\u00edstop\u0159edseda Chan \u010ceng (1954) a vrchn\u00ed stranick\u00fd ideolog Wang Chu-ning (1955), p\u0159e\u0161li na stranu Si. I zde v\u0161ak plat\u00ed: D\u016fv\u011b\u0159uj, ale prov\u011b\u0159uj, neb p\u00e1t\u00e1 kolona nikdy nesp\u00ed a v\u00a0p\u0159edstaviteln\u00e9 budoucnosti bude mobilizov\u00e1na a vyzv\u00e1na k\u00a0\u010din\u016fm.<\/p>\n

V\u0161eobecn\u011b lze tvrdit, \u017ee dlouhodob\u00fd v\u00fdvoj vnitrostranick\u00e9 situace a ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 indicie ukazuj\u00ed na upevn\u011bn\u00ed pozice Si. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 chv\u00e1la v Lidov\u00e9m den\u00edku indikuje, \u017ee Si \u0164in-pching by mohl z\u00edskat dokonce titul v\u016fdce lidu<\/em> (\u017een-min ling-siu). To by ho postavilo na \u00farove\u0148 Mao Ce-tunga. T\u00edm by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 op\u011btovn\u011b ukotvit jeho my\u0161lenky ve stranick\u00fdch stanov\u00e1ch, zn\u00e1m\u00e9 ve zkr\u00e1cen\u00e9 podob\u011b jako my\u0161lenky Si<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a objektivn\u00ed v\u00fdzvy<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Mnoh\u00e9 se uk\u00e1\u017ee hned prvn\u00ed den 20. sjezdu, kdy Si \u0164in-pching p\u0159ednese zpr\u00e1vu, jej\u00ed\u017e obsah se tak stane ve\u0159ejn\u00fdm. Proto nem\u00e1 smysl dnes citovat historick\u00e9<\/em> usnesen\u00ed, nebo\u0165 strategick\u00e9 my\u0161len\u00ed KS\u010c t\u00edm, \u017ee pevn\u011b fixovalo hodnocen\u00ed minulosti, pokud jde o p\u0159\u00edtomnost a budoucnost, co nejv\u00edce roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ilo pole mo\u017en\u00e9ho man\u00e9vrov\u00e1n\u00ed a omezilo se na nejobecn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sm\u011brnice. Jedn\u00e1 se o logick\u00fd a promy\u0161len\u00fd krok. Pro\u010d?<\/p>\n

\u00dakoly pro nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch p\u011bt let byly 19. sjezdem v roce 2017 stanoveny v\u00a0jedn\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed situaci, zat\u00edmco v\u00fdsledky jejich pln\u011bn\u00ed jsou shrnuty v\u00a0podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch zcela jin\u00e9 kvality a v\u00a0dob\u011b prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch z\u00e1sadn\u00edch zm\u011bn glob\u00e1ln\u00edho politick\u00e9ho, hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho a finan\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu. Proto se do z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9ho dokumentu zased\u00e1n\u00ed politbyra \u00daV KS \u010c\u00edny z 30. srpna prom\u00edtla n\u011bkter\u00e1 ustanoven\u00ed, kter\u00e1 historickou<\/em> rezoluci 2021 up\u0159es\u0148uj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Komunik\u00e9 sedm\u00e9ho pl\u00e9na nep\u0159ineslo tak\u00e9 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed ani n\u00e1znaky podstaty zm\u011bny \u00dastavy KS \u010c\u00edny, nedo\u0161lo k\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm \u00fanik\u016fm, co\u017e je pozoruhodn\u00e9 a proto p\u0159edstavuje pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b dobr\u00e9 shrnut\u00ed toho, co je obsa\u017eeno v\u00a0z\u00edt\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed pracovn\u00ed zpr\u00e1v\u011b Si. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m, \u017ee bude podobn\u00e1 tomu, co je v historick\u00e9m usnesen\u00ed vydan\u00e9m p\u0159ed rokem.<\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dovou ot\u00e1zkou sjezdu a zm\u011bn Charty, kter\u00e1 v KS\u010c spojuje organiza\u010dn\u00ed principy s programovou a ideologickou oporou (co\u017e bylo v KS\u010c vlo\u017eeno do samostatn\u00e9ho dokumentu – programu), je proto p\u0159izp\u016fsoben\u00ed ustanoven\u00ed historick\u00e9<\/em> rezoluce sou\u010dasn\u00e9 realit\u011b. Nen\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm tajemstv\u00edm, \u017ee za t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 rok od 6. pl\u00e9na uplynulo p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho vody a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed situace pro\u0161la takov\u00fdmi zm\u011bnami, jak\u00e9 v minulosti lidstvo neza\u017eilo po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed. Nen\u00ed pochyb o tom, \u017ee person\u00e1ln\u00ed obsazen\u00ed bude p\u0159izp\u016fsobeno sm\u011bru, jak\u00fdm se tento proces vyv\u00edj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

T\u0159i ze sou\u010dasn\u00fdch \u010dlen\u016f 19. politbyra p\u0159ekonali v\u011bkovou hranici 68 let. Ten se nevztahuje na Si, pokud je zvolen prvn\u00ed osobou<\/em>; krom\u011b Si jsou na seznamu tak\u00e9 Li \u010can-\u0161u, p\u0159edseda V\u0161e\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed lidov\u00fdch z\u00e1stupc\u016f, a vicepremi\u00e9r Chan \u010ceng, de facto prvn\u00ed m\u00edstop\u0159edseda St\u00e1tn\u00ed rady. Zbyl\u00e1 \u010dtve\u0159ice v\u011bkov\u00fd rubikon nep\u0159ekro\u010dila: premi\u00e9rovi Li Kche-\u010dchiangovi, hlavn\u00edmu ideologovi Wang Chung-ningovi a p\u0159edsedovi Lidov\u00e9 politick\u00e9 poradn\u00ed konference Wang Jangovi je 67 let a p\u0159edsedovi \u00daV KS\u010cM \u010cao Le-\u010dchi 65 let. Li Keqiang ji\u017e p\u0159ed n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edci ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee odstoup\u00ed z \u010dela St\u00e1tn\u00ed rady, ale podrobnosti neup\u0159esnil.<\/p>\n

Pokud rozum\u00edm dostupn\u00fdm informac\u00edm, debatuje se o mo\u017enosti, \u017ee Si na sjezdu obnov\u00ed titul p\u0159edsedy \u00daV KS \u010c\u00edny, u\u017e\u00edvan\u00fd historicky pouze Mao Ce-tungem. Tomu napov\u00edd\u00e1 p\u0159edem zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 zru\u0161en\u00ed v roce 1982 symbolick\u00e9ho zakotven\u00ed kolektivn\u00edho veden\u00ed strany a o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee Si bude s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed pot\u0159et\u00ed zvolen gener\u00e1ln\u00edm tajemn\u00edkem. Nelze vylou\u010dit, \u017ee Si bude stejn\u011b jako Mao usilovat o do\u017eivotn\u00ed vl\u00e1du, se v\u0161emi pro a proti.<\/p>\n

Pokud Si re\u00e1ln\u011b setrv\u00e1 u moci, a\u0165 u\u017e jako gener\u00e1ln\u00ed tajemn\u00edk nebo p\u0159edseda strany, bude muset mj. \u0159e\u0161it t\u0159i d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 probl\u00e9my ka\u017ed\u00e9 centralizovan\u00e9 moci:<\/p>\n

1)<\/strong><\/span> Kdo bude oponovat rozhodnut\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e oponovat neznamen\u00e1 levnou kritiku nebo sabot\u00e1\u017e, naopak vy\u017eaduje schopnost kriticky, tj. jasn\u011b myslet. 2)<\/strong><\/span> N\u00e1slednick\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka v\u00a0dob\u011b rostouc\u00edho vlivu \u010cLR ve sv\u011bt\u011b bude odlo\u017eena do budoucnosti. To m\u016f\u017ee v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b deficitu kvalitn\u00ed oponentury zv\u00fd\u0161it \u0161anci na nestabilitu doma, a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b i za hranicemi \u010cLR. A to z\u00a0mnoha d\u016fvod\u016f, o kter\u00fdch dnes nebudu ps\u00e1t. 3)<\/strong><\/span> Si v posledn\u00edch letech zna\u010dn\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il moc a vliv KS \u010c\u00edny a politick\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed p\u0159ij\u00edman\u00e1 v\u00a0nov\u011b z\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch komis\u00edch omezuj\u00ed moc vl\u00e1dy. Nap\u0159\u00edklad: Soukrom\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti mus\u00ed m\u00edt stranick\u00e9 bu\u0148ky, \u0161koly mus\u00ed vyu\u010dovat takzvan\u00e9 my\u0161lenky Si. Vl\u00e1da, arm\u00e1da, spole\u010dnost, \u0161koly, sever, jih, v\u00fdchod a z\u00e1pad \u2013 strana je v\u0161echny ovl\u00e1d\u00e1<\/em>, \u0159ekl Si na sjezdu strany p\u0159ed p\u011bti lety. O sjezdu jsem referoval p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky a na semin\u00e1\u0159i v\u00a0roce 2018 a 2019.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edklady n\u011bkolika v\u00fdzev<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Pl\u00e1n na ochlazen\u00ed p\u0159eh\u0159\u00e1t\u00e9ho trhu s nemovitostmi kontrolovan\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem z\u0159ejm\u011b selhal.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Jak uv\u00e1d\u00ed Caixin, o\u017eiven\u00fd n\u00e1stroj p\u0159isl\u00edben\u00fdch dopl\u0148kov\u00fdch \u00fav\u011br\u016f bude pou\u017eit k financov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161iny infrastrukturn\u00edch projekt\u016f (600 miliard RMB ozn\u00e1men\u00fdch v\u00a0l\u00e9t\u011b), nikoli na z\u00e1chranu nebo stimulaci nemovitost\u00ed, jak n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm spekulanti a ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed analytici, doufali.<\/p>\n

Nulov\u00e1 tolerance v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Covid-19 zp\u016fsobila ekonomice \u0161kody, kter\u00e9 ve spojen\u00ed s masivn\u00ed americkou eskalac\u00ed ve sf\u00e9\u0159e technologi\u00ed a re-orientac\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed rozvoj nebude jednodu\u0161e \u0159e\u0161iteln\u00e1. People’s Daily t\u0159et\u00ed koment\u00e1\u0159 b\u011bhem t\u00fddne na t\u00e9ma Covid, s n\u00e1zvem – Le\u017eet naplocho je nep\u0159ijateln\u00e9, vyhr\u00e1t bez \u00fasil\u00ed je nemo\u017en\u00e9<\/em> \u2013 interpretuji v\u00a0kontextu jako marn\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed (p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm Z\u00e1padu), \u017ee brzy po sjezdu dojde k n\u00e1hl\u00e9mu posunu v\u00a0politice.<\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9my s vodou v \u0160anghaji a uzav\u0159en\u00ed n\u011bkolika n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed kv\u016fli p\u0159\u00edlivu slan\u00e9 vody vede k hore\u010dnat\u00e9mu n\u00e1kupu balen\u00e9 vody. Vl\u00e1da uvedla, \u017ee se nen\u00ed \u010deho b\u00e1t. P\u0159esto lid\u00e9 kupuj\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce balen\u00e9 vody, vzhledem k pou\u010den\u00ed z vl\u00e1dn\u00edch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00e9ho segmentu populace.<\/p>\n

Nov\u00e1 americk\u00e1 pravidla kontroly polovodi\u010d\u016f ji\u017e maj\u00ed dopad. N\u011bkter\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti propou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed zam\u011bstnance a zastavuj\u00ed podporu pracuj\u00edc\u00edch. Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed reakce vl\u00e1dy \u010cLR minul\u00fd t\u00fdden byla m\u00edrn\u00e1. D\u016fvod k\u00a0m\u00edrn\u00e9 reakci p\u0159isuzuji zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed se na 20. sjezd KS \u010c\u00edny. Proto doporu\u010duji p\u0159edstavit si s\u00e1m sebe v\u00a0pozici \u010cLR a pochopit dopady nov\u00fdch kontrol, aby nedo\u0161lo po sjezdu k\u00a0udiven\u00ed, fale\u0161n\u00fdm obvi\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00edm a zbyte\u010dn\u00e9 dezinformaci.<\/p>\n

Up\u0159\u00edmn\u011b si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee mnoz\u00ed na Z\u00e1pad\u011b dopady kontrol a odvetu \u010cLR podce\u0148uj\u00ed. Pro\u010d? Proto\u017ee o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m n\u00e1sledky pro technologick\u00e9 dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce, pro budouc\u00ed technologick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj a obecn\u011bji pro americko-\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 vztahy, p\u0159esto\u017ee mo\u017enosti \u010cLR jsou v\u00a0dan\u00e9m segmentu omezen\u00e9. Pro\u010d by m\u011bly b\u00fdt omezen\u00e9?<\/p>\n

Proto\u017ee mnoho zd\u00e1nliv\u011b z\u0159ejm\u00fdch akc\u00ed, jako je potrest\u00e1n\u00ed Apple, by zp\u016fsobilo velk\u00e9 \u0161kody ekonomice \u010cLR. Boeing je u\u017e trest\u00e1n. Proto p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m, \u017ee vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 zeminy a kovy budou nov\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi. Indikuje to mj. kv\u011btnov\u00e1 n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bva Si v Jiangxi, kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 provincii pro t\u011b\u017ebu a zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch zemin a kov\u016f v roce 2019. Proto sou\u010dasn\u011b p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1m nebezpe\u010d\u00ed pro technologick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti EU v\u00a0kontextu dal\u0161\u00edch bal\u00edk\u016f sankc\u00ed proti RF a p\u0159edstaviteln\u00e9 reakce RF na n\u011b, kter\u00e9 mohou b\u00fdt tak\u00e9 spojen\u00e9 s\u00a0omezen\u00edm exportu vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch kov\u016f apod.<\/p>\n

P\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1m, \u017ee \u010cLR pod veden\u00edm Si svou nar\u016fstaj\u00edc\u00ed asertivitou signalizovala zm\u011bnu postoje a postaven\u00ed \u010cLR na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm poli. Tento postoj lze na z\u00e1klad\u011b ideologie a r\u00e9toriky Si shrnout jako pokus o narovn\u00e1n\u00ed k\u0159ivd, kter\u00e9 \u010c\u00edna utrp\u011bla b\u011bhem tzv. stolet\u00ed pon\u00ed\u017een\u00ed<\/em>, tj. od opiov\u00fdch v\u00e1lek v polovin\u011b 19. stolet\u00ed a\u017e po neuzn\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00e9ho komunistick\u00e9ho re\u017eimu z\u00e1padn\u00edmi mocnostmi po roce 1949 a b\u011bhem procesu dosa\u017een\u00ed pozice sv\u011btov\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 velmoci v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b 21. stolet\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Sign\u00e1ly, \u017ee v \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 diplomacii doch\u00e1z\u00ed k jist\u00e9mu posunu, bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 sledovat ji\u017e v \u010dervnu 2021, kdy Si \u0164in-pching na \u0161kolen\u00ed Politbyra vyzval k budov\u00e1n\u00ed vl\u00eddn\u00e9ho<\/em> (kche-aj) obrazu sv\u00e9 zem\u011b. V\u00fdraz, kter\u00fd mnoz\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed pozorovatel\u00e9 v t\u00e9 dob\u011b vn\u00edmali jako lehce matouc\u00ed (kche-aj znamen\u00e1 tak\u00e9 roztomil\u00fd<\/em>), mezit\u00edm z\u00edskal jist\u00e9 kontury a stoj\u00ed za zamy\u0161len\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Bidenova administrativa vydala ve\u0159ejnou verzi dlouho odkl\u00e1dan\u00e9 N\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed strategie. \u010cLR v\u00a0n\u00ed hraje prominentn\u00ed roli. Sekce o \u010c\u00edn\u011b je nazv\u00e1na P\u0159ekon\u00e1n\u00ed konkuren\u010dn\u00ed \u010c\u00edny a omezen\u00ed Ruska<\/em>. P\u0159i srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed strategi\u00ed formulovanou ministrem zahrani\u010d\u00ed se mi zd\u00e1, \u017ee neexistuje (ve\u0159ejn\u011b dostupn\u00e1) specifick\u00e1 definice po\u017eadovan\u00e9ho kone\u010dn\u00e9ho stavu po odd\u011blen\u00ed se od konkuruj\u00edc\u00ed \u010c\u00edny<\/em>, Mo\u017en\u00e1 je definice obsa\u017eena v pln\u00e9 utajovan\u00e9 verzi.<\/p>\n

Summa summarum: Ideologick\u00e1 orientace \u010cLR, RF na prahu b\u00fdt, \u010di neb\u00fdt a my s\u00a0n\u00edm, a rozum pop\u00edraj\u00edc\u00ed kon\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch politick\u00fdch elit ve spojen\u00ed s neschopnost\u00ed a neochotou mlad\u00e9 a mlad\u0161\u00ed generace tvo\u0159it nov\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9, kulturn\u00ed, soci\u00e1ln\u00ed a zdravotnick\u00e9 mini syst\u00e9my paraleln\u011b ke hrout\u00edc\u00edmu se st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edmu, p\u0159edznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed masivn\u00ed konflikty se zbytkem sv\u011bta. Souhlasu net\u0159eba.<\/p>\n

Jan Campbell<\/em><\/strong>
\n15.10.2022<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V\u00a0\u00favodu p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1m jeden ze z\u00e1kladn\u00edch princip\u016f sjezd\u016f politick\u00fdch stran u moci: B\u011bhem velk\u00fdch zased\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0mnoha…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":650,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,30,29,2886],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16824"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16824"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16824\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/650"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16824"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16824"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16824"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}