{"id":16485,"date":"2022-10-11T01:05:49","date_gmt":"2022-10-10T23:05:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=16485"},"modified":"2022-10-10T17:24:50","modified_gmt":"2022-10-10T15:24:50","slug":"ondrej-korybko-rusko-strategicky-vyhraje-i-v-pripade-vojenskeho-patu-na-ukrajine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/10\/11\/ondrej-korybko-rusko-strategicky-vyhraje-i-v-pripade-vojenskeho-patu-na-ukrajine\/","title":{"rendered":"Ond\u0159ej Korybko: Rusko strategicky vyhraje i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b vojensk\u00e9ho patu na Ukrajin\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Rusko strategicky vyhraje i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b vojensk\u00e9ho patu na Ukrajin\u011b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

V\u0161e, co Rusko mus\u00ed ud\u011blat, je jednodu\u0161e pokra\u010dovat v existenci a vzep\u0159\u00edt se politicky nerealistick\u00fdm pl\u00e1n\u016fm \u201ebalkanizace\u201c USA, aby zajistilo p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj posunu glob\u00e1ln\u00edho re\u017eimu sm\u011brem k multiplexnosti.<\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt, kter\u00fd je ve skute\u010dnosti z\u00e1stupnou v\u00e1lkou NATO vedenou USA proti Rusku vedenou v t\u00e9to b\u00fdval\u00e9 sov\u011btsk\u00e9 republice a jej\u00edm prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm, sm\u011b\u0159uje k vojensk\u00e9mu patu.\u00a0Toto pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed je zalo\u017eeno na pravd\u011bpodobnosti, \u017ee \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 mobilizace zku\u0161en\u00fdch z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00edk\u016f nakonec stabilizuje linii kontroly (LOC) mezi ned\u00e1vno sjednocen\u00fdmi oblastmi Moskvy v Novorossii a jej\u00edmi odp\u016frci v prvn\u00ed linii podporovan\u00fdmi NATO, ale na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/p>\n

\u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd z\u00e1sadn\u00ed pr\u016flom se neo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 ani z jedn\u00e9 strany.\u00a0NATO je v\u00edce ne\u017e schopno zabr\u00e1nit tomu, aby se to Rusku stalo t\u00edm, \u017ee bude nad\u00e1le investovat nekone\u010dn\u00e9 zdroje do sv\u00fdch z\u00e1stupc\u016f, zat\u00edmco Moskva se m\u016f\u017ee uch\u00fdlit k taktick\u00fdm jadern\u00fdm zbran\u00edm pro sebeobranu jako absolutn\u011b posledn\u00ed mo\u017enost k zachov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9 \u00fazemn\u00ed celistvosti.\u00a0Z t\u011bchto d\u016fvod\u016f LOC pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b z\u016fstane v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b beze zm\u011bny, pouze s mal\u00fdmi zm\u011bnami, kter\u00e9 by mohly nanejv\u00fd\u0161 vy\u00fastit v roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed sv\u00e9 jurisdikce Ruska na administrativn\u00ed hranice sv\u00fdch \u010dty\u0159 nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch region\u016f.<\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee tento hroz\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdsledek by nesplnil c\u00edle, kter\u00e9 Rusko deklarovalo na za\u010d\u00e1tku sv\u00e9 speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se demilitarizace, denacifikace a vojensk\u00e9 neutrality Ukrajiny, nato\u017e \u00fapln\u00e9 osvobozen\u00ed Donbasu, je pochopiteln\u00e9, pro\u010d v\u011bt\u0161ina pozorovatel\u016f doch\u00e1z\u00ed k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee vojensk\u00e1 patov\u00e1 situace ke strategick\u00e9 ztr\u00e1t\u011b pro Rusko.\u00a0Tento n\u00e1zor m\u00e1 i dal\u0161\u00ed d\u016fvod, toti\u017e skute\u010dnost, \u017ee USA vyu\u017eily konfliktu k \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9mu op\u011btovn\u00e9mu prosazen\u00ed sv\u00e9 hegemonie nad Evropou.<\/p>\n

EU ji\u017e nelze vn\u00edmat jako strategicky nez\u00e1visl\u00e9ho akt\u00e9ra zm\u011bny glob\u00e1ln\u00edho syst\u00e9mu sm\u011brem k multipolarit\u011b, ale stala se nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm vazalsk\u00fdm st\u00e1tem USA a t\u00edm celokontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed platformou pro neust\u00e1l\u00e9 ohro\u017een\u00ed rusk\u00fdch n\u00e1rodn\u00edch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f, a to i s hybridn\u00edm prost\u0159edek.\u00a0Jin\u00fdmi slovy, stejn\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed hrozby, kter\u00e9 Rusko pova\u017eovalo za vych\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed z Ukrajiny, se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ily po Evrop\u011b, co\u017e v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br d\u00e1le pos\u00edlilo.<\/p>\n

Z d\u016fvod\u016f, kter\u00e9 budou nyn\u00ed vysv\u011btleny, je v\u0161ak tento z\u00e1v\u011br nespr\u00e1vn\u00fd.\u00a0Za prv\u00e9, Rusko z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00edce ne\u017e schopn\u00e9 chr\u00e1nit sv\u00e9 \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti, zejm\u00e9na prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm sv\u00e9ho sv\u011btov\u00e9ho vedouc\u00edho postaven\u00ed v oblasti hypersonick\u00fdch technologi\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed integritu jeho jadern\u00fdch kapacit druh\u00e9ho \u00faderu, a t\u00edm br\u00e1n\u00ed tomu, aby se stalo zraniteln\u00fdm v\u016f\u010di americk\u00e9mu jadern\u00e9mu vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee jeho strategick\u00e1 autonomie je zaru\u010dena v pr\u016fb\u011bhu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 zm\u011bny.<\/p>\n

Zadruh\u00e9, kv\u016fli d\u016fsledk\u016fm zm\u011bny paradigmatu, kter\u00e9 vyvolala speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace, se tento p\u0159echod urychlil bezprecedentn\u00edm zp\u016fsobem, zejm\u00e9na na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm Jihu.\u00a0T\u0159i hlavn\u00ed zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed jsou, \u017ee rozvojov\u00e9 zem\u011b znovu potvrdily svou strategickou autonomii t\u00edm, \u017ee odm\u00edtly sankcionovat Rusko;\u00a0\u017ee Indie r\u00e1zn\u011b zas\u00e1hla, aby preventivn\u011b zastavila nep\u0159im\u011b\u0159enou z\u00e1vislost Ruska na \u010c\u00edn\u011b;\u00a0a \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 cesta st\u00e1t se supervelmoc\u00ed se vykolejila.<\/p>\n

Za t\u0159et\u00ed, sou\u010dasn\u00e1 bimultipol\u00e1rn\u00ed p\u0159echodn\u00e1 f\u00e1ze zm\u011bny glob\u00e1ln\u00edho syst\u00e9mu se proto vyv\u00edj\u00ed mnohem rychleji, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo, sm\u011brem k tripolarit\u011b, ne\u017e skon\u010d\u00ed ve sv\u00e9 kone\u010dn\u00e9 podob\u011b komplexn\u00ed multipolarity (\u201emultiplexity\u201c).\u00a0Jak americk\u00e9, tak (rostouc\u00ed) \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 supervelmoci spojen\u00e9 s bimultipol\u00e1rn\u00edm konceptem proto ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed sv\u016fj mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fd vliv na utv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vztah\u016f, proto\u017ee multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed supervelmoci jako Indie, \u00cdr\u00e1n, Turecko a dal\u0161\u00ed urychluj\u00ed sv\u016fj vzestup.<\/p>\n

Za \u010dtvrt\u00e9, rychl\u00fd v\u00fdvoj sm\u011brem k tripolarit\u011b a multipolarit\u011b vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nespo\u010det p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed pro srovnateln\u011b st\u0159edn\u011b velk\u00e9 a men\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1ty glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu, kter\u00e9 budou p\u0159irozen\u011b praktikovat komplexn\u00ed balancov\u00e1n\u00ed mezi sebou, vznikaj\u00edc\u00edmi multipol\u00e1rn\u00edmi velmocemi a dv\u011bma supervelmocemi.\u00a0Tato souhra d\u00e1le urychl\u00ed multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed procesy, tak\u017ee se sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed d\u0159\u00edve p\u0159edimenzovan\u00fd vliv dvou supervelmoc\u00ed, pos\u00edl\u00ed se ten velmoc\u00ed a kone\u010dn\u011b sv\u016fj vliv z\u00edskaj\u00ed i men\u0161\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010di.<\/p>\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b, revolu\u010dn\u00ed manifest prezidenta Putina, kter\u00fd ozn\u00e1mil 30. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed p\u0159ed podpisem dokument\u016f o op\u011btovn\u00e9m sjednocen\u00ed Novorosska s Ruskem, bude nad\u00e1le podporovat multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed procesy na cel\u00e9m glob\u00e1ln\u00edm Jihu a zajist\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159edchoz\u00ed trendy z\u016fstanou v kurzu.\u00a0Kumulativn\u00ed dopad t\u011bchto syst\u00e9mov\u00fdch zm\u011bn proto urychl\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed syst\u00e9mov\u00fd p\u0159echod k multipolarit\u011b, kter\u00fd je ned\u00edlnou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed hlavn\u00edch strategick\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f Ruska.<\/p>\n

Neb\u00fdt propleten\u00fdch pr\u016flom\u016f mezi tripolaritou a multipolaritou vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch ze syst\u00e9mov\u00fdch d\u016fsledk\u016f katalyzovan\u00fdch speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operac\u00ed, z\u016fstala by sou\u010dasn\u00e1 bimultipol\u00e1rn\u00ed p\u0159echodn\u00e1 f\u00e1ze glob\u00e1ln\u00ed syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 transformace status quo na neur\u010dito.\u00a0Za t\u011bchto podm\u00ednek by Rusko bylo nevyhnuteln\u011b nuceno ze zoufalstv\u00ed a na \u00fakor sv\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 autonomie uzav\u0159\u00edt jednostrann\u00e9 dohody s \u010c\u00ednou a st\u00e1t se tak \u201ejuniorsk\u00fdm partnerem\u201c Pekingu.<\/p>\n

Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b by Indie byla nucena st\u00e1t se \u201ejuniorsk\u00fdm partnerem\u201c USA kv\u016fli sv\u00e9mu zoufal\u00e9mu pokusu obnovit rovnov\u00e1hu s \u010c\u00ednou pot\u00e9, co se ob\u00e1vala d\u016fsledk\u016f toho, \u017ee Rusko nev\u011bdomky zablokuje cestu velmoci sv\u00e9ho souseda, aby se zrychlila.\u00a0V podobn\u00e9 pozici by se ocitly i dal\u0161\u00ed velk\u00e9 velmoci ji\u017en\u00ed Asie, kter\u00e9 by nem\u011bly jinou mo\u017enost, ne\u017e se st\u00e1t \u201ejunior partnerem\u201c jedn\u00e9 z t\u011bchto velmoc\u00ed kv\u016fli \u0159et\u011bzov\u00e9 reakci vyvolan\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00edmi Ruska a Indie.<\/p>\n

V tomto bi-multipol\u00e1rn\u00edm syst\u00e9mu by jedin\u00fdmi skute\u010dn\u011b suver\u00e9nn\u00edmi st\u00e1ty byly dv\u011b supervelmoci, proto\u017ee suverenita velmoc\u00ed by byla omezena t\u00edm, \u017ee by byly nuceny pod\u0159\u00eddit se statusu \u201ejunior partner\u201c, co\u017e by zase znamenalo zru\u0161en\u00ed pom\u011brn\u011b st\u0159edn\u00edho stavu. -velk\u00e9 a men\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1ty.\u00a0Tato nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed hierarchie by byla zbavena jak\u00e9hokoli zd\u00e1n\u00ed jin\u00e9 suverenity, ne\u017e jak\u00e9 jim velmoci umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed, aby zabr\u00e1nily jejich \u201edefekt\u016fm\u201c na druhou stranu.<\/p>\n

M\u00edsto t\u00e9to temn\u00e9 budoucnosti, kter\u00e1 je v podstat\u011b bipol\u00e1rn\u00ed a mnohem rigidn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e syst\u00e9m, kter\u00fd existoval b\u011bhem star\u00e9 studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, proto\u017ee multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed aspekt by byl pouze povrchn\u00ed, proto\u017ee by byl v podstat\u011b \u0159\u00edzen dv\u011bma supervelmocemi, se objevuje skute\u010dn\u00e1 multipolarita.\u00a0Je to velk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed nejen pro Rusko, ale pro cel\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spole\u010denstv\u00ed a s n\u00edm i velk\u00e1 strategick\u00e1 por\u00e1\u017eka pro USA.<\/p>\n

Udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm hroz\u00edc\u00edho vojensk\u00e9ho patu na Ukrajin\u011b, a\u0165 u\u017e konven\u010dn\u00edmi prost\u0159edky souvisej\u00edc\u00edmi se zam\u00fd\u0161lenou \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dnou mobilizac\u00ed zku\u0161en\u00fdch z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00edk\u016f, nebo uch\u00fdlen\u00edm se k taktick\u00fdm jadern\u00fdm zbran\u00edm pro sebeobranu jako absolutn\u011b posledn\u00ed mo\u017enosti v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby, spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 strategick\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch Ruska v tom, \u017ee je st\u00e1le bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 dlouhodob\u00fd.\u00a0Jedin\u00e9, co mus\u00ed ud\u011blat, je vzep\u0159\u00edt se politicky nerealistick\u00fdm pl\u00e1n\u016fm \u201ebalkanizace\u201c USA, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed zajistit p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj posunu glob\u00e1ln\u00edho re\u017eimu sm\u011brem k multiplexnosti.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rusko strategicky vyhraje i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b vojensk\u00e9ho patu na Ukrajin\u011b V\u0161e, co Rusko mus\u00ed ud\u011blat,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8923,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[220,22,26,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16485"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16485"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16485\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16486,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16485\/revisions\/16486"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8923"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16485"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16485"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16485"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}