{"id":16305,"date":"2022-10-07T01:07:27","date_gmt":"2022-10-06T23:07:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=16305"},"modified":"2022-10-06T20:12:25","modified_gmt":"2022-10-06T18:12:25","slug":"ocekavany-financni-krach-je-konecne-tady","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/10\/07\/ocekavany-financni-krach-je-konecne-tady\/","title":{"rendered":"O\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd finan\u010dn\u00ed krach je kone\u010dn\u011b tady"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p><span>Kdy\u017e dva zku\u0161en\u00ed ekonomi\u010dt\u00ed a finan\u010dn\u00ed analytici, kte\u0159\u00ed oba spr\u00e1vn\u011b p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bli deriv\u00e1tovou krizi z roku 2008, znovu varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed hroz\u00edc\u00edm krachem, rad\u011bji se posa\u010fte a zpozorn\u011bte.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Dnes Yves Smith z Naked Capitalism\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2022\/10\/the-inevitable-financial-crisis.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2022\/10\/the-inevitable-financial-crisis.html\"><span>p\u00ed\u0161e<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0o nyn\u00ed nevyhnuteln\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed krizi:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span>M\u011bs\u00edce jsem byl p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee Evropa bude trp\u011bt finan\u010dn\u00ed kriz\u00ed a depres\u00ed, tzn.\u00a0H.\u00a0skute\u010dnou ekonomickou katastrofou doprov\u00e1zenou krachem akciov\u00e9ho trhu.\u00a0Nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt tak z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e1 a dlouhotrvaj\u00edc\u00ed jako v roce 1929, ale jej\u00ed rozsah by znamenal, \u017ee v roce 1987 nenastane ani rychl\u00e9 zotaven\u00ed, ani deriv\u00e1tov\u00e1 krize v roce 2008, kter\u00e1 by se soust\u0159edila na srdce bankovn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu.\u00a0I kdy\u017e se zd\u00e1lo, \u017ee finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m je na pokraji smrti, stejn\u00e9 faktory, kter\u00e9 v mnoha ohledech krizi zhor\u0161ily, \u00fa\u0159ad\u016fm usnadnily identifikaci a podporu kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch instituc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 byly zasa\u017eeny pod \u010darou ponoru.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><cite><span>N\u00ed\u017ee budeme diskutovat o rychle se zrychluj\u00edc\u00ed krizi v re\u00e1ln\u00e9 ekonomice, umocn\u011bn\u00e9 zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00edm centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank jako v podstat\u011b jedin\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 linii proti inflaci, kter\u00e1 je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u00fdhradn\u011b v\u00fdsledkem nab\u00eddkov\u00e9ho \u0161oku na v\u00edce front\u00e1ch. Net\u0159eba dod\u00e1vat, \u017ee Fed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb (kter\u00e9 Bernanke c\u00edtil v roce 2014 nezbytn\u00e9 ke zkrocen\u00ed buj\u00edc\u00ed cen aktiv, ale pak ztratil nervy) ned\u011bl\u00e1 nic pro to, aby z \u010c\u00edny dostal v\u00edce \u017eeton\u016f nebo magicky vyl\u00e9\u010dil zam\u011bstnance posti\u017een\u00e9 Covidem, aby se mohli vr\u00e1tit do pr\u00e1ce.\u00a0Zasad\u00ed to ale r\u00e1nu nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm spekulant\u016fm a finan\u010dn\u00edm firm\u00e1m, kte\u0159\u00ed \u0161patn\u011b odhadli sv\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 pozice.<\/span><\/cite><em><span>A tak\u00e9 bylo jasn\u00e9, \u017ee USA budou vta\u017eeny do v\u00edru, mo\u017en\u00e1 ne tak daleko, ale n\u00e1kaza, z\u00e1vislost na dodavatelsk\u00e9m \u0159et\u011bzci a d\u016fle\u017eitost Evropy jako z\u00e1kazn\u00edka by znamenaly, \u017ee by utrp\u011bly i USA.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span>Druh\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-says-150551053.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-says-150551053.html\"><span>varov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0poch\u00e1z\u00ed od \u201eDr.\u00a0Doom&#8220; Nouriel Roubini:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>Podle Nouriela Roubiniho existuj\u00ed zn\u00e1mky toho, \u017ee se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed dluhov\u00e1 krize a ekonomika sm\u011b\u0159uje k tvrd\u00e9mu p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Roubini p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl hlubokou recesi a 40% propad akciov\u00e9ho trhu do konce roku.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Varoval, \u017ee cel\u00e1 \u0159ada \u0161ok\u016f bude m\u00edt zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed dopad na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><span>Podle p\u0159edn\u00edho ekonoma Nouriela Roubiniho existuj\u00ed n\u00e1znaky, \u017ee dluhov\u00e1 krize se ji\u017e formuje a tvrd\u00e9 p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomiky p\u0159ed koncem roku je nyn\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><span>Roubini, p\u0159ezd\u00edvan\u00fd \u201eDr.\u00a0Doom\u201c varuje p\u0159ed bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se dluhovou a infla\u010dn\u00ed kriz\u00ed zhruba rok.\u00a0Ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl, \u017ee do konce roku 2022 to povede k recesi ve stylu Frankensteina, kter\u00e1 spoj\u00ed nejhor\u0161\u00ed aspekty stagflace ze 70. let a finan\u010dn\u00ed krize z roku 2008.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><span>A zn\u00e1mky tohoto finan\u010dn\u00edho zhroucen\u00ed se kone\u010dn\u011b za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed objevovat podle Roubiniho, kter\u00fd v pond\u011bln\u00edm p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku pro Project Syndicate ozna\u010dil tvrd\u00e9 p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed za z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpad.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><span>&#8222;N\u00e1znaky zp\u0159\u00eds\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed na dluhov\u00fdch trz\u00edch se mno\u017e\u00ed&#8230; krize je tady,&#8220; \u0159ekl Roubini s odkazem na ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 kroky centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank k omezen\u00ed volatility trhu.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span>Titulek Roubiniho Project Syndicate zn\u00ed:\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/commentary\/stagflationary-debt-crisis-is-here-by-nouriel-roubini-2022-10\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/commentary\/stagflationary-debt-crisis-is-here-by-nouriel-roubini-2022-10\"><span>Stagfla\u010dn\u00ed dluhov\u00e1 krize je tady<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Jeho argument, kter\u00fd jsem zd\u016fraznil, je velmi podobn\u00fd Yvesovu:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span>NEW YORK \u2013 U\u017e rok tvrd\u00edm, \u017ee r\u016fst inflace bude trval\u00fd, \u017ee mezi jeho p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny pat\u0159\u00ed nejen \u0161patn\u00e1 politika, ale i nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9 nab\u00eddkov\u00e9 \u0161oky a \u017ee pokusy centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank bojovat proti n\u011bmu vedou k tvrd\u00e9mu ekonomick\u00e9mu p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed. se st\u00e1v\u00e1.\u00a0Varoval jsem, \u017ee a\u017e p\u0159ijde recese, bude v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1 a vlekl\u00e1 s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdmi finan\u010dn\u00edmi pot\u00ed\u017eemi a dluhov\u00fdmi krizemi.\u00a0Navzdory sv\u00e9 agresivn\u00ed r\u00e9torice by centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i v dluhov\u00e9 pasti st\u00e1le mohli ustoupit a spokojit se s inflac\u00ed nad c\u00edl.\u00a0Jak\u00e9koli portfolio rizikov\u00fdch akci\u00ed a m\u00e9n\u011b rizikov\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f s pevn\u00fdm v\u00fdnosem ztrat\u00ed pen\u00edze kv\u016fli vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflaci a o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed inflace dluhopis\u016f.<\/span><\/em><br \/>\n<span>&#8230;<\/span><br \/>\n<em><span>V\u0161ichni nyn\u00ed uzn\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee tyto dlouhodob\u00e9 negativn\u00ed nab\u00eddkov\u00e9 \u0161oky p\u0159isp\u011bly k inflaci, a Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka, Bank of England a Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m USA si za\u010daly uv\u011bdomovat, \u017ee m\u011bkk\u00e9 p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed bude extr\u00e9mn\u011b obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9.\u00a0P\u0159edseda Fedu Jerome Powell nyn\u00ed mluv\u00ed o \u201em\u011bkk\u00e9m p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c s alespo\u0148 \u201en\u011bjakou bolest\u00ed\u201c.\u00a0Mezit\u00edm se sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 tvrd\u00e9ho p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1v\u00e1 konsensem mezi tr\u017en\u00edmi analytiky, ekonomy a investory.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><cite><span>M\u011bkk\u00e9 p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed je mnohem obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dos\u00e1hnout v podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch stagfla\u010dn\u00edch negativn\u00edch nab\u00eddkov\u00fdch \u0161ok\u016f, ne\u017e kdy\u017e se ekonomika p\u0159eh\u0159\u00edv\u00e1 kv\u016fli nadm\u011brn\u00e9 popt\u00e1vce.<\/span><\/cite><span>Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky \u0161patn\u011b diagnostikovaly p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinu sou\u010dasn\u00e9 vysok\u00e9 inflace.\u00a0Byly zp\u016fsobeny nejen p\u0159\u00edli\u0161n\u00fdmi stimuly ze strany vl\u00e1d a centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank, ale do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry tak\u00e9 nedostatkem surovin zp\u016fsoben\u00fdm pandemi\u00ed a pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdmi \u201ez\u00e1padn\u00edmi\u201c sankcemi na Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0Zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky bojovaly proti nespr\u00e1vn\u00e9mu nep\u0159\u00edteli.\u00a0Ud\u011blali v\u011bci hor\u0161\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span>Jsme u\u017e v recesi?\u00a0Zat\u00edm ne, ale USA vyk\u00e1zaly negativn\u00ed r\u016fst za prvn\u00ed polovinu roku a v\u011bt\u0161ina v\u00fdhledov\u00fdch ukazatel\u016f ekonomick\u00e9 aktivity ve vysp\u011bl\u00fdch ekonomik\u00e1ch ukazuje na prudk\u00e9 zpomalen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se zrychl\u00ed s utahov\u00e1n\u00edm m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky.\u00a0Tvrd\u00e9 p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed do konce roku by m\u011blo b\u00fdt pova\u017eov\u00e1no za z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpad.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><cite><span>Zat\u00edmco mnoho dal\u0161\u00edch analytik\u016f souhlas\u00ed, zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed recese bude kr\u00e1tk\u00e1 a povrchn\u00ed, zat\u00edmco j\u00e1 jsem varoval p\u0159ed takov\u00fdm relativn\u00edm optimismem a rizikem hlubok\u00e9 a vlekl\u00e9 stagfla\u010dn\u00ed dluhov\u00e9 krize.\u00a0A nyn\u00ed ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 pot\u00ed\u017ee na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b dluhopisov\u00fdch a \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdch trh\u016f \u2013 pos\u00edlily m\u016fj n\u00e1zor, \u017ee snahy centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky vr\u00e1tit inflaci zp\u011bt na c\u00edlov\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b zp\u016fsob\u00ed jak ekonomick\u00fd, tak finan\u010dn\u00ed krach.<\/span><\/cite><em><span>Existuj\u00ed tak\u00e9 prvn\u00ed zn\u00e1mky toho, \u017ee Velk\u00e1 um\u00edrn\u011bnost ustoupila Velk\u00e9 stagnaci, kter\u00e1 se bude vyzna\u010dovat nestabilitou a zpomalenou shodou negativn\u00edch nab\u00eddkov\u00fdch \u0161ok\u016f.\u00a0Krom\u011b naru\u0161en\u00ed uveden\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161e by tyto \u0161oky mohly zahrnovat st\u00e1rnouc\u00ed spole\u010dnosti v mnoha velk\u00fdch ekonomik\u00e1ch (probl\u00e9m umocn\u011bn\u00fd imigra\u010dn\u00edmi omezen\u00edmi), odd\u011blen\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsko-americk\u00fdch vazeb, \u201egeopolitickou depresi\u201c a kolaps multilateralismu, nov\u00e9 varianty COVID-19 a nov\u00e9 epidemie jako opi\u010d\u00ed ne\u0161tovice, kter\u00e9 zahrnuj\u00ed st\u00e1le \u0161kodliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinky zm\u011bny klimatu, kybernetick\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a da\u0148ov\u00e9 politiky ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed mezd a s\u00edly pracovn\u00edk\u016f.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><cite><span>Americk\u00e9 a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed akcie je\u0161t\u011b nebyly pln\u011b ocen\u011bny ani p\u0159i m\u00edrn\u00e9m a kr\u00e1tk\u00e9m tvrd\u00e9m p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0V m\u00edrn\u00e9 recesi klesnou akcie asi o 30 %, v t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 stagfla\u010dn\u00ed dluhov\u00e9 krizi, kterou jsem p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku, o 40 % nebo v\u00edce.\u00a0Na dluhov\u00fdch trz\u00edch se objevuj\u00ed st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zn\u00e1mky nap\u011bt\u00ed: spready suver\u00e9nn\u00edch a dlouhodob\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f se roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00ed a spready s vysok\u00fdmi v\u00fdnosy se prudce roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00ed;\u00a0kolaps trh\u016f s p\u00e1kov\u00fdm \u00fav\u011brem a zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdm \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdm z\u00e1vazkem;\u00a0vysoce zadlu\u017een\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, st\u00ednov\u00e9 banky, dom\u00e1cnosti, vl\u00e1dy a zem\u011b se ocitaj\u00ed v dluhov\u00e9 krizi.\u00a0Krize je tady.<\/span><\/cite><span>Pro ochranu p\u0159ed dopady t\u00e9to krize lze ud\u011blat jen m\u00e1lo.\u00a0Sna\u017ete se z\u016fstat na bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 stran\u011b.\u00a0Z\u00edskejte co nejmen\u0161\u00ed dluhy.\u00a0Pokud m\u00e1te dluh, je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b mnohem lep\u0161\u00ed m\u00edt ho s pevnou sazbou.\u00a0Nes\u00e1zejte na hodnotu majetku, kter\u00fd m\u00e1te.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Tato bou\u0159e bude drsn\u00e1 a jej\u00ed n\u00e1sledky budou v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lewrockwell.com\/2022\/10\/no_author\/the-expected-financial-crash-is-finally-here\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kdy\u017e dva zku\u0161en\u00ed ekonomi\u010dt\u00ed a finan\u010dn\u00ed analytici, kte\u0159\u00ed oba spr\u00e1vn\u011b p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bli deriv\u00e1tovou krizi z roku&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11353,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,59,45,683,371],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16305"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16305"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16305\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11353"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16305"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16305"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16305"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}