{"id":15677,"date":"2022-09-26T04:04:33","date_gmt":"2022-09-26T02:04:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=15677"},"modified":"2022-09-26T04:04:33","modified_gmt":"2022-09-26T02:04:33","slug":"mohou-byt-nadchazejici-referenda-v-donbasu-obrannou-odpovedi-ruska-na-charkov","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/09\/26\/mohou-byt-nadchazejici-referenda-v-donbasu-obrannou-odpovedi-ruska-na-charkov\/","title":{"rendered":"Mohou b\u00fdt nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed referenda v Donbasu \u201eobrannou\u201c odpov\u011bd\u00ed Ruska na Charkov?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Existuj\u00ed argumenty pro i proti tomu, aby ka\u017ed\u00fd z hlavn\u00edch \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f konfliktu souhlasil se sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em referenda na Donbasu, kter\u00e9 by ukon\u010dilo vojenskou f\u00e1zi konfliktu p\u0159ed nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed zimou.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n
Ob\u010dansk\u00e9 komory obou donbask\u00fdch republik v pond\u011bl\u00ed ozn\u00e1mily, \u017ee by cht\u011bly uspo\u0159\u00e1dat referenda o p\u0159ipojen\u00ed k Rusku co nejd\u0159\u00edve. Margarita Simonyanov\u00e1, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 d\u00edky sv\u00fdm zn\u00e1m\u00fdm medi\u00e1ln\u00edm rol\u00edm obrovsk\u00fd vliv na formov\u00e1n\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed ve sv\u00e9 zemi i mezi Rusku p\u0159\u00e1telsky nalad\u011bn\u00fdmi lidmi v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, na tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 reagovala n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed na Telegramu:<\/p>\n

\u201eDnes je to referendum, z\u00edtra uzn\u00e1n\u00ed LLR jako sou\u010d\u00e1sti Ruska. Den pot\u00e9 se z \u00fader\u016f na rusk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed stane tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lka Ukrajiny a NATO s Ruskem, kter\u00e1 Moskv\u011b rozv\u00e1\u017ee ruce v mnoha ohledech.\u201c<\/p>\n

\u0160ir\u0161\u00edm kontextem, v n\u011bm\u017e byla tato prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed u\u010din\u011bna, je ne\u010dekan\u00fd ne\u00fasp\u011bch Ruska v Charkovsk\u00e9 oblasti, po n\u011bm\u017e Kyjev nav\u00e1zal na tento moment a p\u0159evzal kontrolu nad vesnic\u00ed v Lugansku, a t\u00edm symbolicky zvr\u00e1til \u00fapln\u00e9 osvobozen\u00ed t\u00e9to republiky, kter\u00e9ho bylo dosa\u017eeno v l\u00e9t\u011b. Tureck\u00fd prezident Erdogan tak\u00e9 pr\u00e1v\u011b \u0159ekl CBS, \u017ee ho prezident Putin \u00fadajn\u011b informoval b\u011bhem jejich setk\u00e1n\u00ed na okraj summitu \u0160OS, kter\u00fd se konal minul\u00fd t\u00fdden v Samarkandu, \u201e\u017ee je ochoten to co nejd\u0159\u00edve ukon\u010dit. Zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm se v\u011bci nyn\u00ed vyv\u00edjej\u00ed, je dosti problematick\u00fd. Mysl\u00edm si, \u017ee bude u\u010din\u011bn v\u00fdznamn\u00fd krok vp\u0159ed.\u201c<\/p>\n

Je tedy mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 demokraticky \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9ho p\u0159ipojen\u00ed t\u011bchto dvou donbask\u00fdch republik k Rusk\u00e9 federaci, kter\u00fd by se mo\u017en\u00e1 dokonce mohl shodovat s p\u0159ipojen\u00edm Chersonsk\u00e9 a\/nebo Z\u00e1poro\u017esk\u00e9 oblasti, by mohl b\u00fdt asymetrickou odpov\u011bd\u00ed, kterou se pozorovatel\u00e9 p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1vat od prezidenta Putina po ne\u010dekan\u00e9m ne\u00fasp\u011bchu jeho strany v Charkovsk\u00e9 oblasti. Pro vysv\u011btlen\u00ed, Moskva by pak \u00fatoky proti nim pova\u017eovala za \u00fatoky proti sob\u011b p\u0159esn\u011b tak, jak p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl Simonyan, kter\u00fd by tak stanovil velmi jasn\u00e9 \u010derven\u00e9 linie, kter\u00e9 by mohly urychlen\u011b ukon\u010dit vojenskou f\u00e1zi ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu. Kyjev podporovan\u00fd NATO by bu\u010f dobrovoln\u011b ukon\u010dil bojov\u00e9 akce, nebo by k tomu byl Moskvou kone\u010dn\u011b donucen.<\/p>\n

Tento sled ud\u00e1lost\u00ed nen\u00ed zaru\u010den, ale p\u0159esto jej nelze ani podce\u0148ovat, zejm\u00e9na pot\u00e9, co se Simonyanov\u00e1 pod\u011blila o sv\u00e9 \u00favahy o tom, co by se mohlo st\u00e1t. M\u016f\u017ee se tedy docela dob\u0159e st\u00e1t, \u017ee ona a ob\u010dansk\u00e9 komory donbask\u00fdch republik testuj\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed a zahrani\u010dn\u00ed reakce na tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 p\u0159ed t\u00edm, ne\u017e o n\u011bm v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti rozhodne Kreml. Koneckonc\u016f se zd\u00e1, \u017ee posledn\u00ed dynamika ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu dosp\u011bla do bodu, kdy \u010das pracuje ve prosp\u011bch i neprosp\u011bch ka\u017ed\u00e9 strany.<\/p>\n

Taktick\u00e1 dynamika Kyjeva s \u010dasem st\u00e1le roste, ale udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu p\u016fsob\u00ed proti strategick\u00fdm z\u00e1jm\u016fm jeho evropsk\u00fdch patron\u016f z NATO t\u00edm, \u017ee zvy\u0161uje riziko hlubok\u00fdch soci\u00e1ln\u011b-politick\u00fdch d\u016fsledk\u016f spojen\u00fdch s bezprecedentn\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159skou kriz\u00ed katalyzovanou protirusk\u00fdmi sankcemi. Stejn\u011b tak je perspektiva opa\u010dn\u00e1 pro Moskvu: udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu podporuje jej\u00ed strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy spojen\u00e9 s jednotou EU nad Ukrajinou a jednotou Z\u00e1padu v \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm smyslu, ale na \u00fakor jej\u00edch taktick\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f, proto\u017ee se sna\u017e\u00ed zastavit rozmach Kyjeva na p\u016fd\u011b NATO.<\/p>\n

V souladu s t\u00edm by rychl\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 f\u00e1ze konfliktu odvr\u00e1tilo nejhor\u0161\u00ed strategick\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e z pohledu Kyjeva a jeho z\u00e1padn\u00edch patron\u016f, ale na \u00fakor jejich politicko-teritori\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f spo\u010d\u00edvaj\u00edc\u00edch ve znovuz\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed kontroly nad Donbasem, Chersonem a Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00edm. Z pohledu Moskvy by to mohlo odvr\u00e1tit nejhor\u0161\u00ed taktick\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 ztr\u00e1ty kontroly nad t\u011bmito osvobozen\u00fdmi regiony a s t\u00edm spojen\u00e9 z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9 m\u011bkk\u00e9 mocensk\u00e9 d\u016fsledky, ale na \u00fakor jej\u00edch d\u0159\u00edve popsan\u00fdch strategick\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f. Existuj\u00ed tedy argumenty pro i proti tomu, aby ka\u017ed\u00fd z hlavn\u00edch \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f konfliktu souhlasil se sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em referenda v Donbasu, kter\u00e9 by ukon\u010dilo vojenskou f\u00e1zi konfliktu p\u0159ed nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed zimou.<\/p>\n

Samotn\u00fd fakt, \u017ee se tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 v\u016fbec v\u011brohodn\u011b nab\u00edz\u00ed jako zalo\u017een\u00fd na rozumn\u00e9 interpretaci Simonyanovy reakce na prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed donbask\u00fdch ob\u010dansk\u00fdch komor, nazna\u010duje, \u017ee prezident Putin v\u00e1\u017en\u011b koketuje s defenzivn\u011b orientovanou reakc\u00ed na ned\u00e1vn\u00fd ne\u00fasp\u011bch sv\u00e9 strany v Charkovsk\u00e9 oblasti, m\u00edsto aby up\u0159ednost\u0148oval v\u00fdhradn\u011b ofenzivn\u011b orientovanou reakci, jak mnoz\u00ed pozorovatel\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1vali. Op\u011bt to neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee by se definitivn\u011b rozhodl pro sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00fd byl pops\u00e1n v t\u00e9to anal\u00fdze, ale nelze jej s jistotou vylou\u010dit pot\u00e9, co prezident Erdogan pr\u00e1v\u011b \u0159ekl o \u00fadajn\u00e9 touze sv\u00e9ho rusk\u00e9ho prot\u011bj\u0161ku \u201eco nejd\u0159\u00edve to ukon\u010dit\u201c.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

Could Forthcoming Donbass Referenda be Russia\u2019s \u201cDefense-Oriented\u201d Response to Kharkov?<\/a> vy\u0161el 20.9.2022 na Oneworld.press. P\u0159eklad\u00a0 Zv\u011bdavec.<\/p>\n

P\u0159evzato\u00a0Zvedavec.org<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Existuj\u00ed argumenty pro i proti tomu, aby ka\u017ed\u00fd z hlavn\u00edch \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f konfliktu souhlasil se sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":15678,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,29,3378,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15677"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15677"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15677\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15678"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15677"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15677"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15677"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}