{"id":15363,"date":"2022-09-20T01:04:10","date_gmt":"2022-09-19T23:04:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=15363"},"modified":"2022-09-19T18:25:03","modified_gmt":"2022-09-19T16:25:03","slug":"david-c-hendrickson-evropska-energeticka-katastrofa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/09\/20\/david-c-hendrickson-evropska-energeticka-katastrofa\/","title":{"rendered":"David C. Hendrickson: Evropsk\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 katastrofa"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pokud by Evropan\u00e9 byli ochotni nakupovat, byli by Rusov\u00e9 ochotni tak\u00e9 prod\u00e1vat?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 katastrofa je den ode dne hor\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0\u00da\u010dty za energie, kter\u00e9 jsou 10kr\u00e1t vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e loni, hroz\u00ed uzav\u0159en\u00edm velk\u00fdch pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed a mal\u00fdch podnik\u016f v Brit\u00e1nii, N\u011bmecku a ve zbytku Evropsk\u00e9 unie.<\/span><\/p>\n

V posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch do\u0161lo k \u0159ad\u011b odvetn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed \u2013 n\u011bkter\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty odm\u00edtaj\u00ed platit za plyn v rublech, Polsko a Ukrajina n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t uzav\u0159ely plynovodn\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165 \u2013 spolu s rusk\u00fdmi \u0161krty (ze 40 procent na 20 procent na 0 procent) v plynovodu Nord Stream I.\u00a0V l\u00e9t\u011b propukl spor o plynov\u00e9 turb\u00edny pro plynovod, kter\u00e9 uv\u00edzly v Kanad\u011b kv\u016fli sankc\u00edm, pak byly odesl\u00e1ny do n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho Siemensu a pot\u00e9 zam\u00edtnuty Ruskem, proto\u017ee sankce EU u\u010dinily transakci nez\u00e1konnou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e ob\u011b strany tvrdily, \u017ee ta druh\u00e1 l\u017ee, bylo t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 odhalit pravdu.\u00a0Odm\u00edtli Evropan\u00e9 kupovat?\u00a0Nebo Rusov\u00e9 odm\u00edtli prodat?\u00a0Pokud je pravda prvn\u00ed, Evropan\u00e9 vyzbrojili obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s energi\u00ed.\u00a0Ve druh\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b to ud\u011blali Rusov\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u011b\u017eko \u0159\u00edct, co z t\u011bch dvou je pravda, ale jedno je jasn\u00e9.\u00a0Ob\u011b strany se mnohem v\u00edce zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed na p\u0159ipisov\u00e1n\u00ed viny za hroz\u00edc\u00ed katastrofu ne\u017e na hled\u00e1n\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by j\u00ed zabr\u00e1nilo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak potrubn\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165 nar\u00e1\u017e\u00ed na p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky, zjevn\u00fdm testem velk\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky \u201ekdo co odm\u00edt\u00e1 ud\u011blat?\u201c je stav plynovodu Nord Stream II.\u00a0Byl postaven bok po boku s Nord Stream I na dn\u011b Baltsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e a zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee je\u0161t\u011b nen\u00ed funk\u010dn\u00ed.\u00a0N\u011bmecko v reakci na ruskou invazi na Ukrajinu zru\u0161ilo v \u00fanoru zprovozn\u011bn\u00ed ropovodu.\u00a0N\u00e1kup rusk\u00e9ho plynu p\u0159es Nord Stream II se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt v N\u011bmecku prozat\u00edm mimo st\u016fl.\u00a0Podle n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ministryn\u011b zahrani\u010d\u00ed Annalene Baerbock se n\u011bme\u010dt\u00ed voli\u010di mus\u00ed pro Ukrajinu ob\u011btovat.\u00a0Tato a dal\u0161\u00ed prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Evropa odm\u00edt\u00e1 nakupovat plyn.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud by Evropan\u00e9 byli ochotni nakupovat, byli by Rusov\u00e9 ochotni tak\u00e9 prod\u00e1vat?\u00a0Na za\u010d\u00e1tku krize, kdy\u017e Z\u00e1pad ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee odm\u00edtne nakupovat, Z\u00e1pad p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal, \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 mus\u00ed a budou prod\u00e1vat, proto\u017ee na tom z\u00e1vis\u00ed jejich \u201e\u010derpac\u00ed stanice\u201c ekonomiky.\u00a0Koncem jara p\u0159i\u0161la z Ruska odpov\u011b\u010f: \u201eAno, ale mus\u00edte platit v rublech.\u00a0N\u011bkter\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty ano, jin\u00e9 ne;\u00a0pouze t\u011bm druh\u00fdm byl odpojen plyn.\u00a0Rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin v l\u00e9t\u011b trval na tom, \u017ee Gazprom bude dodr\u017eovat v\u0161echny dohody, a z bezv\u00fdchodn\u00e9 situace obvinil Evropany.\u00a0Nyn\u00ed se rusk\u00e1 odpov\u011b\u010f m\u011bn\u00ed mezi \u201ene, nikdy\u201c.\u00a0Putin 6. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee Rusko je nad\u00e1le ochotno prod\u00e1vat\u00a0a vyl\u00ed\u010dil naru\u0161en\u00ed jako zran\u011bn\u00ed, kter\u00e9 si Z\u00e1pad zp\u016fsobil, ale dva dny p\u0159edt\u00edm Dmitrij Medved\u011bv, b\u00fdval\u00fd rusk\u00fd prezident a st\u00e1l\u00fd kremelsk\u00fd jest\u0159\u00e1b, napsal, \u017ee N\u011bmecko se prohl\u00e1silo za nep\u0159\u00edtele Ruska.\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd plyn?\u00a0Ne\u0161t\u011bst\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010clov\u011bk si klade ot\u00e1zku, jak m\u016f\u017ee EU fungovat, kdy\u017e obrovsk\u00fd n\u011bmeck\u00fd v\u00fdrobn\u00ed, chemick\u00fd a pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd komplex, z\u00e1visl\u00fd na levn\u00e9m rusk\u00e9m plynu, mus\u00ed b\u00fdt uzav\u0159en nebo v\u00fdrazn\u011b omezen.\u00a0N\u011bmeck\u00e1 \u0161t\u011bdrost poskytovan\u00e1 prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm EU umo\u017enila v pr\u016fb\u011bhu let mnoho vnit\u0159n\u00edch dohod EU.\u00a0Co se stane s EU, pokud se N\u011bmecko stane \u017eebr\u00e1kem?<\/span><\/p>\n

Luuk Middelaar, velk\u00fd teoretik Evropsk\u00e9 unie, prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee m\u00edr, prosperita a moc jsou t\u0159i hlavn\u00ed c\u00edle evropsk\u00e9ho projektu.\u00a0Evropsk\u00e1 unie nikdy nebyla \u201emocensk\u00fdm projektem\u201c ve vojensk\u00e9m smyslu.\u00a0Ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly jej\u00edch \u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f jsou pln\u011b pod\u0159\u00edzeny NATO.\u00a0Ekonomick\u00e9 sankce uvalen\u00e9 na Rusko v\u0161ak zna\u010dn\u011b roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00ed n\u00e1rok EU na mocensk\u00fd projekt.\u00a0Sankce jsou na dobr\u00e9 cest\u011b k v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9mu ohro\u017een\u00ed statusu EU jako projektu prosperity.\u00a0Jeho status m\u00edrov\u00e9ho projektu mo\u017en\u00e1 nebyl tak d\u00e1vno.\u00a0Tyto sankce skute\u010dn\u011b p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed nov\u00fd \u00fa\u010del, na rozd\u00edl od v\u0161eho, o co EU v minulosti usilovala.\u00a0P\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed do Unie mocn\u00e9 odst\u0159ediv\u00e9 s\u00edly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aby mohl plyn proudit, musela by se sank\u010dn\u00ed kampa\u0148 Z\u00e1padu v d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch bodech zvr\u00e1tit.\u00a0I kdy\u017e by to bylo \u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed, neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd d\u016fkaz, \u017ee by n\u011bkter\u00fd z hlavn\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f o takov\u00e9m zvratu uva\u017eoval.\u00a0Naopak, Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm se poda\u0159ilo z\u00edskat podporu G-7 pro sv\u016fj pl\u00e1n p\u0159iv\u00e9st na trh ruskou ropu a z\u00e1rove\u0148 omezit cenu, kterou za ni Rusko dost\u00e1v\u00e1.\u00a0Tento pl\u00e1n, o\u010dividn\u011b vymy\u0161len\u00fd ministryn\u00ed financ\u00ed Janet Yellenov\u00e9, je rozporem vyd\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edm se za politiku, snu, kter\u00fd nem\u016f\u017ee fungovat.\u00a0Vy\u017eaduje spolupr\u00e1ci nejen s Ruskem, ale tak\u00e9 s \u0159adou dal\u0161\u00edch zem\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na s \u010c\u00ednou, Indi\u00ed a Tureckem.\u00a0V\u0161ichni tito kupuj\u00edc\u00ed to dali jasn\u011b najevo\u00a0\u017ee nedovol\u00ed, aby jejich energetick\u00e1 politika byla diktov\u00e1na Z\u00e1padem nebo hrozbou z\u00e1padn\u00edch sankc\u00ed.\u00a0Rusov\u00e9 pl\u00e1n odm\u00edtli jako sm\u011b\u0161n\u00fd: „Jednodu\u0161e p\u0159estaneme dod\u00e1vat ropu a palivo do zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 stanov\u00ed cenov\u00fd strop.“<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud Z\u00e1pad prosad\u00ed Yellen\u016fv pl\u00e1n a Rusko odm\u00edtne hr\u00e1t, co pak?\u00a0Logick\u00fdm d\u016fsledkem je, \u017ee pokud nedojde k v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9mu propadu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky, dostanou se ceny energi\u00ed pod siln\u00fd tlak.\u00a0Na prosinec je ohl\u00e1\u0161ena realizace Yellenova pl\u00e1nu, podobn\u00e9 pokusy EU uvalit embargo \u010di strop na ceny energi\u00ed vypl\u00e1cen\u00e9 Rusku a konec uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b z americk\u00fdch strategick\u00fdch z\u00e1sob ropy.\u00a0Hlavn\u00edm pl\u00e1nem Bidenovy administrativy, jak se vyhnout spir\u00e1lovit\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu cen, je donutit Rusy ropuchu spolknout.\u00a0Myln\u011b se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee m\u00e1 v tomto z\u00fa\u010dtov\u00e1n\u00ed lep\u0161\u00ed karty.\u00a0Ona ne.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve stann\u00e9m pr\u00e1vu byla ob\u010dansk\u00e1 imunita dlouho uzn\u00e1v\u00e1na jako \u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed princip.\u00a0Americk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly se ve skute\u010dnosti py\u0161n\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee k zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed tohoto v\u00fdsledku mus\u00ed ze z\u00e1kona dodr\u017eovat pravidla c\u00edlen\u00e9ho pou\u017eit\u00ed.\u00a0V hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce v\u0161ak byly tyto p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky po\u0161kozov\u00e1n\u00ed civilist\u016f p\u0159i mnoha p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitostech prolomeny.\u00a0Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty prov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu, S\u00fdrii a Venezuele politiku, kter\u00e1 bez dom\u00e1c\u00edch v\u00fd\u010ditek hladov\u00ed obyvatelstvo;\u00a0stejn\u00e1 lhostejnost k utrpen\u00ed civilist\u016f plat\u00ed pro tot\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomickou a finan\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lku proti Rusku.\u00a0Obvykl\u00e1 n\u00e1mitka proti takov\u00fdm opat\u0159en\u00edm je, \u017ee po\u0161kozuj\u00ed nevinn\u00e9 lidi v ciz\u00edch zem\u00edch;<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e1vrhy na omezen\u00ed dopadu v\u00e1lky na civilisty byly prvn\u00edm z\u00e1vanem americk\u00e9 diplomacie.\u00a0V roce 1783 se Benjamin Franklin pokusil zlep\u0161it mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed pr\u00e1vo prosazen\u00edm dohod zakazuj\u00edc\u00edch \u201eplen\u011bn\u00ed neozbrojen\u00fdch a u\u017eite\u010dn\u00fdch pracuj\u00edc\u00edch mu\u017e\u016f\u201c.\u00a0V roce 1785 Franklin spolu s Johnem Adamsem a Thomasem Jeffersonem, kte\u0159\u00ed zastupovali Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, podepsali smlouvu s Fridrichem Velik\u00fdm z Pruska, kter\u00e1 zavedla rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1 omezen\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f na civilisty b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky jako b\u011b\u017enou praxi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Adams byl \u201epot\u011b\u0161en, \u017ee n\u00e1m kr\u00e1l prok\u00e1\u017ee tu \u010dest souhlasit s plat\u00f3nskou filozofi\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00fdch na\u0161ich \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm dobrou lekc\u00ed pro lidstvo a budou \u010derpat v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vliv ze smlouvy ratifikovan\u00e9 prusk\u00fdm kr\u00e1lem ne\u017e z spisy Plat\u00f3na nebo sira Thomase Morea\u201c.\u00a0Tito diplomat\u00e9 byli zd\u011b\u0161eni t\u00edm, \u017ee farm\u00e1\u0159i a ryb\u00e1\u0159i, obchodn\u00edci a mechanici, u\u010denci a \u017eeny v dom\u00e1cnosti budou nevyhnuteln\u011b vta\u017eeni do ni\u010divosti v\u00e1lky.\u00a0Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty byly kdysi \u00fazce spojeny s t\u00edmto principem.\u00a0Dne\u0161n\u00ed tv\u016frci politik se v\u0161ak ne\u0161t\u00edt\u00ed zat\u00e1hnout bezpo\u010det nevinn\u00fdch do s\u00edt\u011b sv\u00fdch sankc\u00ed.\u00a0Tak se to d\u011bl\u00e1 v na\u0161em progresivn\u00edm nov\u00e9m stolet\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e n\u011bkdo p\u0159ipust\u00ed, \u017ee sank\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lka je opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u00e1, neznamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee je moudr\u00e1.\u00a0Naopak, d\u016fsledky z\u00e1padn\u00edho kurzu jsou zjevn\u011b neslu\u010diteln\u00e9 se spole\u010dn\u00fdm dobrem a nesou vysok\u00e9 riziko ztr\u00e1ty v\u00edce ne\u017e zisk\u016f.\u00a0Sankce maj\u00ed smysl pouze tehdy, budou-li pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za nezbytn\u00fd a \u00fa\u010dinn\u00fd prost\u0159edek k vyhn\u00e1n\u00ed Rus\u016f z Ukrajiny, i kdy\u017e ve skute\u010dnosti toho nejsou schopni.\u00a0Bylo by tomu tak i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee by sankce zas\u00e1hly Rusko a\u017e k naprost\u00e9mu zoufalstv\u00ed, co\u017e nen\u00ed tento p\u0159\u00edpad.\u00a0Z\u00e1padn\u00ed politici v\u0161ak vid\u00ed v\u011bci jinak, nebo to alespo\u0148 tvrd\u00ed.\u00a0To nazna\u010duje, \u017ee sv\u011btlo na konci tunelu je protijedouc\u00ed vlak.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

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\u010ct\u011bte zde: Pravomocn\u011b odsouzen\u00fd Tom\u00e1\u0161 Jarol\u00edm na kandid\u00e1tce SPD<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Pokud by Evropan\u00e9 byli ochotni nakupovat, byli by Rusov\u00e9 ochotni tak\u00e9 prod\u00e1vat? Evropsk\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 katastrofa…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":12025,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[285,283,371,22,125],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15363"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15363"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15363\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12025"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15363"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15363"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15363"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}