{"id":15229,"date":"2022-09-17T03:22:06","date_gmt":"2022-09-17T01:22:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=15229"},"modified":"2022-09-17T03:22:06","modified_gmt":"2022-09-17T01:22:06","slug":"timofei-bordatschew-hrozi-velka-valka-v-novem-bipolarnim-svetovem-radu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/09\/17\/timofei-bordatschew-hrozi-velka-valka-v-novem-bipolarnim-svetovem-radu\/","title":{"rendered":"Timofei Bordatschew: Hroz\u00ed velk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka v nov\u00e9m bipol\u00e1rn\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00e9m \u0159\u00e1du?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pokusy USA donutit mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spole\u010denstv\u00ed, aby zaujalo sv\u016fj postoj k Ukrajin\u011b, selhaly.\u00a0V\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st sv\u011bta nem\u00e1 z\u00e1jem b\u00fdt vta\u017eena do boje mezi Ruskem a Z\u00e1padem.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

To, \u010deho jsme sv\u011bdky, nen\u00ed studen\u00e1 v\u00e1lka a Rusko nen\u00ed Sov\u011btsk\u00fd svaz.\u00a0Jedn\u00edm ze znak\u016f sou\u010dasn\u00fdch zm\u011bn nen\u00ed \u0161t\u011bpen\u00ed sv\u011bta na protich\u016fdn\u00e9 t\u00e1bory, ale p\u0159izp\u016fsoben\u00ed se zm\u011bn\u011bn\u00fdm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edm z konfliktu mezi velmocemi.\u00a0To by s velkou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed mohlo b\u00fdt sign\u00e1lem, \u017ee se v budoucnu nedo\u010dk\u00e1me obnoven\u00ed bipol\u00e1rn\u00edho mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du, kter\u00fd existoval v letech 1945 a\u017e 1990.<\/p>\n

Postoj v\u011bt\u0161iny sv\u011bta ke konfliktu mezi Ruskem a Z\u00e1padem ukazuje, \u017ee lidstvo je nyn\u00ed mnohem jednotn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a schopn\u00e9 p\u0159izp\u016fsobit se okolnostem;\u00a0dokonce i velk\u00fdm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 doned\u00e1vna nebyly br\u00e1ny v \u00favahu.\u00a0To vyvrac\u00ed p\u0159edstavu, \u017ee americk\u00fd centrismus ve sv\u011btov\u00fdch z\u00e1le\u017eitostech i nad\u00e1le \u010din\u00ed z jak\u00e9hokoli probl\u00e9mu spojen\u00e9ho s Washingtonem nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed na sv\u011bt\u011b a mohl by v\u00e9st ke glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu rozd\u011blen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

To v\u0161ak neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee by se Rusko m\u011blo domn\u00edvat, \u017ee pouh\u00e9 um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed na spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 stran\u011b d\u011bjin si automaticky zajist\u00ed podporu v\u011bt\u0161iny st\u00e1t\u016f.\u00a0Na tom je t\u0159eba je\u0161t\u011b zapracovat.\u00a0Bylo by v\u0161ak po\u0161etil\u00e9 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161inov\u00e9 odm\u00edtnut\u00ed st\u00e1t\u016f sv\u011bta p\u0159ipojit se k ekonomick\u00e9 v\u00e1lce Z\u00e1padu proti Rusku znamen\u00e1 podporu chov\u00e1n\u00ed Moskvy, p\u0159esto\u017ee tyto n\u00e1rody tak\u00e9 spole\u010dn\u011b p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed 85 procent sv\u011btov\u00e9 populace.<\/p>\n

\u0160est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f po zah\u00e1jen\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operace na Ukrajin\u011b ukazuje dynamika mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho postoje k politicko-vojensk\u00e9mu konfliktu a jeho \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016fm, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina zem\u00ed je p\u0159ipravena se distancovat.\u00a0Hlavn\u00ed v\u00fdjimkou je zde \u010c\u00edna, jej\u00ed\u017e politika je st\u00e1le v\u00edce prorusk\u00e1 a nad\u00e1le ukazuje skute\u010dnou hloubku vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 d\u016fv\u011bry mezi Moskvou a Pekingem, proto\u017ee jej\u00ed vlastn\u00ed probl\u00e9my s USA eskaluj\u00ed.\u00a0Tato souvislost v\u0161ak vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 z v\u00fdvoje obou zem\u00ed za posledn\u00edch dvacet let a objektivn\u00edho sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed jejich p\u0159\u00edstup\u016f k velk\u00fdm syst\u00e9mov\u00fdm probl\u00e9m\u016fm \u2013 tedy nikoli z bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed krize v Evrop\u011b.\u00a0Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b je je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 brzy \u0159\u00edkat, jak bude vypadat mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d v budoucnosti.\u00a0pot\u00e9, co byl Z\u00e1pad nucen p\u0159iznat svou historickou por\u00e1\u017eku v boji o udr\u017een\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nadvl\u00e1dy.\u00a0Postupn\u011b se formuje, i kdy\u017e vedouc\u00ed mocnosti \u010dasto nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem vymezuj\u00ed hranice sv\u00fdch mocensk\u00fdch kapacit a hranice toho, co je p\u0159\u00edpustn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Vzhledem k iracionalit\u011b velk\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky a rozsahu dlouhotrvaj\u00edc\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f bude tento proces pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b trvat mnohem d\u00e9le ne\u017e p\u0159edchoz\u00ed epizody radik\u00e1ln\u00edch zm\u011bn v mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Nyn\u00ed za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me jednu z prvn\u00edch f\u00e1z\u00ed trval\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed politick\u00e9 reorientace.\u00a0Opravdu mluv\u00edme o konci obdob\u00ed n\u011bkolika set let.\u00a0Ale ji\u017e v t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi m\u016f\u017eeme vid\u011bt ur\u010dit\u00e9 n\u00e1znaky chov\u00e1n\u00ed mocnost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 budou syst\u00e9mov\u00fdmi faktory v\u00fdvoje mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed politiky.\u00a0Je proto d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, aby znakem prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch zm\u011bn nebylo rozd\u011blen\u00ed sv\u011bta na nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 t\u00e1bory, ale – v\u011bt\u0161inou – p\u0159izp\u016fsoben\u00ed se zm\u011bn\u011bn\u00fdm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edm z konfliktu.<\/p>\n

Ale ji\u017e v t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi m\u016f\u017eeme vid\u011bt ur\u010dit\u00e9 n\u00e1znaky chov\u00e1n\u00ed mocnost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 budou syst\u00e9mov\u00fdmi faktory v\u00fdvoje mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed politiky.<\/p>\n

Vlajkovou lod\u00ed takov\u00e9 \u00fapravy je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b Indie, jedna z nejlidnat\u011bj\u0161\u00edch zem\u00ed s velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdmi ambicemi ohledn\u011b sv\u00e9 role ve sv\u011bt\u011b.\u00a0Zat\u00edm nedos\u00e1hla ekonomick\u00e9, vojensk\u00e9 ani soci\u00e1ln\u00ed f\u00e1ze, kter\u00e1 by ze subkontinentu ud\u011blala skute\u010dnou velmoc.\u00a0Z\u00e1rove\u0148 je ale Indie v pop\u0159ed\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161iny, kter\u00e1 nem\u00e1 v \u00famyslu se d\u011blit na nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 t\u00e1bory nebo se st\u00e1t zdrojem zdroj\u016f pro soupe\u0159e, jako je Amerika, Rusko nebo \u010c\u00edna.\u00a0Nov\u00e9 Dill\u00ed d\u016fsledn\u011b p\u011bstuje obchodn\u00ed vztahy s Moskvou a v posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch se stalo jedn\u00edm z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch zahrani\u010dn\u00edch obchodn\u00edch partner\u016f Ruska.<\/p>\n

Indi\u010dt\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 neust\u00e1le zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee jejich sv\u011bton\u00e1zor nen\u00ed protirusk\u00fd.\u00a0Neochota v n\u011bkter\u00fdch oblastech spolupracovat s Ruskem souvis\u00ed pouze s opr\u00e1vn\u011bnou obavou, \u017ee dom\u00e1c\u00ed obchodn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy budou vystaveny americk\u00fdm repres\u00e1li\u00edm.\u00a0Krom\u011b toho je Indie pova\u017eov\u00e1na za vzor ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b rozvojov\u00fdch zem\u00ed v Asii, Africe a Latinsk\u00e9 Americe.\u00a0P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u0161ak vid\u00edme jednu v\u011bc: \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f pot\u00e9, co se krize mezi Ruskem a Z\u00e1padem zm\u011bnila v politicko-vojensk\u00fd st\u0159et, se po\u010det zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsou i verb\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159ipraven\u00e9 podpo\u0159it USA v boji proti Moskv\u011b, zv\u00fd\u0161il o v\u00edce ne\u017e polovinu. .<\/p>\n

Minul\u00fd t\u00fdden byl nap\u0159\u00edklad u\u010din\u011bn pokus z\u00edskat podporu \u010dlen\u016f OSN pro nov\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed odsuzuj\u00edc\u00ed rusk\u00e9 akce na Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0Zat\u00edmco na Valn\u00e9m shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed OSN loni v b\u0159eznu podobnou rezoluci podpo\u0159ilo v\u00edce ne\u017e 140 zem\u00ed, tentokr\u00e1t ji podpo\u0159ilo pouze 58 zem\u00ed.\u00a0Mezi nimi je celkem 30 form\u00e1ln\u00edch \u010dlen\u016f NATO pod veden\u00edm USA a n\u011bkolik dal\u0161\u00edch je s Washingtonem v\u00e1z\u00e1no bilater\u00e1ln\u00edmi obrann\u00fdmi dohodami.\u00a0V d\u016fsledku toho se v\u00edce ne\u017e dv\u011b t\u0159etiny mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho spole\u010denstv\u00ed vyhnuly definov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9ho postoje k evropsk\u00fdm z\u00e1le\u017eitostem.\u00a0To je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b d\u016fsledkem toho, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 diplomacie soustavn\u011b poukazuje na to, \u017ee skute\u010dnou p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou v\u00e1lky v Evrop\u011b je politika USA.<\/p>\n

Tato dynamika p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm ukazuje, \u017ee rozvojov\u00e9 zem\u011b ch\u00e1pou, \u017ee maj\u00ed mo\u017enost neu\u010dinit konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed volbu.\u00a0M\u00edsto toho je strategie odpout\u00e1n\u00ed se od konfliktu rozumn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u00e1 v sou\u010dasn\u00e9m kontextu.\u00a0V Evrop\u011b se z\u00e1le\u017eitosti vle\u010dou a mezi Ruskem a Z\u00e1padem se formuj\u00ed obrysy dlouh\u00e9ho konfliktu s r\u016fznou m\u00edrou nap\u011bt\u00ed.\u00a0V\u011bt\u0161ina sv\u011bta se v\u0161ak bude st\u00e1le v\u00edce p\u0159izp\u016fsobovat \u017eivotu v t\u011bchto nov\u00fdch okolnostech.\u00a0Pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty samotn\u00e9 vedl pokles jejich schopnosti prosadit se ke strategii zastra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed a tlaku na nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 akt\u00e9ry v mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm spole\u010denstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ale ani tato politika nebude \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1.\u00a0I kdyby m\u011bl Washington k dispozici obrovsk\u00fd represivn\u00ed apar\u00e1t, bylo by zcela ne\u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9, kdyby americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da soust\u0159edila ve\u0161ker\u00e9 sv\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed aktivity na prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed \u201esankc\u00ed\u201c.\u00a0Takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 v\u0161ak nem\u016f\u017eeme zcela vylou\u010dit.\u00a0V d\u016fsledku toho bude st\u00e1le v\u00edce zem\u00ed spolupracovat jak s Ruskem, tak se Z\u00e1padem.\u00a0A tempo t\u00e9to spolupr\u00e1ce bude z\u00e1viset na mo\u017enosti z\u00edskat n\u011bco z obou stran.<\/p>\n

Konflikt v Evrop\u011b se naproti tomu bude st\u00e1le v\u00edce lokalizovat a bude v p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9m z\u00e1jmu pouze hlavn\u00edch \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f.\u00a0Zat\u00edmco zbytek sv\u011bta se bude sna\u017eit nezasahovat.\u00a0Pro Rusko to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee mus\u00ed b\u00fdt otev\u0159en\u00e9 a schopn\u00e9 nab\u00eddnout rozvojov\u00fdm zem\u00edm to, co pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed \u2013 v oblasti energetiky, komodit, v\u011bdy nebo vzd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Ale absolutn\u011b nen\u00ed pot\u0159eba nikoho l\u00e1kat do boje za rusk\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy a hodnoty \u2013 p\u0159esn\u011b tomu, \u010demu se chce v\u011bt\u0161ina sv\u011bta vyhnout.\u00a0M\u016f\u017eeme tedy z\u016fstat relativn\u011b v klidu.\u00a0T\u00edm je zabr\u00e1n\u011bno rozd\u011blen\u00ed sv\u011bta na nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 t\u00e1bory, kter\u00e9 je nezbytnou podm\u00ednkou pro vypuknut\u00ed velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

Timofei Bordatschew<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0je programov\u00fdm \u0159editelem v klubu Valdai.\u00a0Jako v\u011bdeck\u00fd pracovn\u00edk se specializuje na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vztahy a aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed probl\u00e9my sv\u011btov\u00e9 politiky a zejm\u00e9na rusko-evropsk\u00fdch vztah\u016f.<\/em><\/p>\n

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\u010ct\u011bte zde: Pravomocn\u011b odsouzen\u00fd Tom\u00e1\u0161 Jarol\u00edm na kandid\u00e1tce SPD<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Pokusy USA donutit mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spole\u010denstv\u00ed, aby zaujalo sv\u016fj postoj k Ukrajin\u011b, selhaly.\u00a0V\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st sv\u011bta nem\u00e1…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11489,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,29,276,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15229"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15229"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15229\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11489"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15229"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15229"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15229"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}