{"id":14690,"date":"2022-09-07T01:02:45","date_gmt":"2022-09-06T23:02:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=14690"},"modified":"2022-09-06T13:06:43","modified_gmt":"2022-09-06T11:06:43","slug":"alexander-mann-tri-duvody-proc-rusko-odolava-zapadnim-sankcim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/09\/07\/alexander-mann-tri-duvody-proc-rusko-odolava-zapadnim-sankcim\/","title":{"rendered":"Alexander Mann: T\u0159i d\u016fvody, pro\u010d Rusko odol\u00e1v\u00e1 z\u00e1padn\u00edm sankc\u00edm"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Jen n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed pot\u00e9, co 24. \u00fanora za\u010dala rusk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 intervence na Ukrajin\u011b, USA, Brit\u00e1nie, Kanada, \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Evropsk\u00e9 unie a dal\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1ty uvalily na Rusko p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e9 sankce, kter\u00e9 izolovaly ekonomiku t\u00e9to zem\u011b, a v d\u016fsledku toho by m\u011bly spadnout do propasti. .\u00a0\u010cetn\u00ed politici, ekonomov\u00e9 a dal\u0161\u00ed odborn\u00edci p\u0159edpov\u00eddali Rusku rychl\u00fd hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd pokles s ohledem na bezprecedentn\u00ed sank\u010dn\u00ed politiku \u201ekolektivn\u00edho Z\u00e1padu\u201c.<\/p>\n

V b\u0159eznu analytici americk\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed banky JPMorgan\u00a0p\u0159edpov\u00eddali<\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee hrub\u00fd dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkt Ruska klesne ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed o\u00a035 procent .<\/a>ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00edm roku.\u00a0Z\u00e1rove\u0148\u00a0nebyl v JPMorgan vylou\u010den<\/a>\u00a0bankrot v Rusku .\u00a0Ve stejn\u00e9m m\u011bs\u00edci dal\u0161\u00ed velk\u00e1 americk\u00e1 banka, Morgan Stanley, rovn\u011b\u017e ozn\u00e1mila, \u017ee \u201eza nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u00a0\u201c<\/a>\u00a0pova\u017euje bankrot ze strany Moskvy .\u00a0Ratingov\u00e1 agentura Fitch tak\u00e9\u00a0zjistila<\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee \u201ehroz\u00ed\u201c riziko, \u017ee Rusko nebude schopno splatit sv\u016fj st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh.\u00a0Handelsblatt<\/a>\u00a0tehdy\u00a0dokonce p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 ekonomika \u010del\u00ed nejhor\u0161\u00edmu propadu od rozpadu Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu.<\/p>\n

Experti v\u0161ak byli s takov\u00fdmi progn\u00f3zami hodn\u011b mimo \u2013 o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd kolaps se nenaplnil a rusk\u00e1 ekonomika odolala tlaku sankc\u00ed.\u00a0Podle ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch \u00fadaj\u016f se v m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch duben a\u017e \u010derven v\u00fdkon ekonomiky sn\u00ed\u017eil\u00a0oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu roku jen o\u00a0\u010dty\u0159i procenta .<\/a><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka podle listu „Vedomosti“ p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1\u00a0,<\/a>\u00a0\u017ee ekonomika zem\u011b se v roce 2022 sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed o \u010dty\u0159i a\u017e \u0161est procent a v roce 2023 maxim\u00e1ln\u011b o \u010dty\u0159i procenta, ale v letech 2024 a 2025 poroste o 1,5 a\u017e 2,5 procenta.\u00a0Inflace, kter\u00e1 se letos bude pohybovat mezi 12 a 15 procenty, p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok klesne a v roce 2024 bude kolem 4 procent, uvedli.<\/p>\n

Rusko se vzp\u00edr\u00e1 sankc\u00edm<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee je situace pro Rusy velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1, Rusko m\u00e1 k ekonomick\u00e9mu \u00fapadku je\u0161t\u011b hodn\u011b daleko.\u00a0Ve skute\u010dnosti se rusk\u00e9 ekonomice da\u0159\u00ed mnohem l\u00e9pe, ne\u017e p\u0159edpov\u00eddaly i ty nejoptimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed progn\u00f3zy, a proto v\u011bt\u0161ina odborn\u00edk\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u00eddali hroz\u00edc\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed kolaps zem\u011b, nyn\u00ed sv\u00e1 hodnocen\u00ed\u00a0p\u0159ehodnotila<\/a>\u00a0.<\/p>\n

Nab\u00edz\u00ed se ot\u00e1zka, jak Moskva tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 bezprecedentn\u00edmu sank\u010dn\u00edmu tlaku Z\u00e1padu dok\u00e1zala zajistit p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed vlastn\u00ed ekonomiky a nepropadnout se do finan\u010dn\u00edho chaosu.<\/p>\n

Britsk\u00e9 noviny „The Economist“ poskytuj\u00ed odpov\u011b\u010f ve sv\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku z\u00a024. srpna\u00a0„Pro\u010d rusk\u00e1 ekonomika st\u00e1le p\u0159ekon\u00e1v\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed“ .\u00a0<\/a>Vysv\u011btluje t\u0159i faktory, kter\u00e9 pr\u00fd dosud zaji\u0161\u0165ovaly odolnost rusk\u00e9 ekonomiky v\u016f\u010di sankc\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Jako prvn\u00ed faktor \u201eThe Economist\u201c popisuje kompetentn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by velmi rychle podniklo pat\u0159i\u010dn\u00e9 kroky, aby p\u0159ede\u0161lo ekonomick\u00e9mu kolapsu.\u00a0Hovo\u0159\u00edme o zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb, kter\u00e9 v kombinaci s kontrolou kapit\u00e1lu pos\u00edlilo rusk\u00fd rubl a pomohlo sn\u00ed\u017eit inflaci.\u00a0Rusk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka se tak\u00e9 sna\u017e\u00ed ud\u011blat v\u0161e pro to, aby zpomalila r\u016fst spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00fd faktor souvis\u00ed s \u010detn\u00fdmi hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdmi krizemi v ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 minulosti Ruska az toho vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edmi zku\u0161enostmi rusk\u00e9ho lidu.\u00a0Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 problematick\u00e1 situace, kter\u00e1 vznikla v d\u016fsledku sank\u010dn\u00ed politiky z\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00ed, je p\u00e1tou ekonomickou kriz\u00ed, kter\u00e9 Rusov\u00e9 \u010delili za posledn\u00edch 25 let.\u00a0Mezit\u00edm se zd\u00e1, \u017ee se lid\u00e9 nau\u010dili p\u0159izp\u016fsobit se ekonomick\u00fdm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m a pot\u00ed\u017e\u00edm, nepropadat panice a nevzbou\u0159it se.<\/p>\n

R\u016fzn\u00e9 oblasti rusk\u00e9 ekonomiky jsou nav\u00edc podle \u010dl\u00e1nku ji\u017e n\u011bjakou dobu izolov\u00e1ny od Z\u00e1padu.\u00a0Jedn\u00edm z d\u016fsledk\u016f toho je, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 ekonomika byla schopna efektivn\u011bji reagovat na nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sankce.<\/p>\n

T\u0159et\u00edm faktorem je rusk\u00fd export komodit.\u00a0Od za\u010d\u00e1tku ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky Rusko prodalo EU fosiln\u00ed paliva v hodnot\u011b 85 miliard dolar\u016f.\u00a0Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 agentury tak\u00e9 poukazuje na to, \u017ee sankce m\u011bly mal\u00fd dopad na ruskou produkci ropy.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoz energie skute\u010dn\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159isp\u011bl ke schopnosti Ruska vzdorovat z\u00e1padn\u00edm sankc\u00edm a relativn\u011b dob\u0159e zvl\u00e1dat sou\u010dasnou ekonomickou krizi.\u00a0Zejm\u00e9na rekordn\u00ed ceny ropy a plynu p\u0159inesly zemi rekordn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjmy a zajistily, \u017ee p\u0159ebytek obchodn\u00ed bilance letos je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1le poroste \u2013 navzdory sankc\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst bude mimo jin\u00e9 z\u00e1viset na tom, zda se Rusku poda\u0159\u00ed pokra\u010dovat v dovozu technologi\u00ed.\u00a0Proto\u017ee Rusov\u00e9 jsou vysoce z\u00e1visl\u00ed na zahrani\u010dn\u00edm vybaven\u00ed a know-how, pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed nov\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed partnery, kte\u0159\u00ed by mohli nahradit p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00e9 dovozy ze Z\u00e1padu.\u00a0Jinak hroz\u00ed, \u017ee se zem\u011b ve st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9m a\u017e dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu ocitne v ekonomick\u00e9 izolaci a d\u0159\u00edve \u010di pozd\u011bji se ocitne ve v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 recesi.<\/p>\n

Alexander Mann<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jen n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed pot\u00e9, co 24. \u00fanora za\u010dala rusk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 intervence na Ukrajin\u011b, USA, Brit\u00e1nie,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":12807,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[59,22,125],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14690"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14690"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14690\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12807"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14690"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14690"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14690"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}