{"id":12848,"date":"2022-07-28T09:36:00","date_gmt":"2022-07-28T07:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=12848"},"modified":"2022-07-28T09:36:00","modified_gmt":"2022-07-28T07:36:00","slug":"jaderne-zbrane-budou-okamzite-pouzity-zahaji-rusko-valku-s-nato-kvuli-ukrajine-tri-scenare-od-americkych-analytiku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/07\/28\/jaderne-zbrane-budou-okamzite-pouzity-zahaji-rusko-valku-s-nato-kvuli-ukrajine-tri-scenare-od-americkych-analytiku\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201eJadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b budou okam\u017eit\u011b pou\u017eity\u201c: Zah\u00e1j\u00ed Rusko v\u00e1lku s NATO kv\u016fli Ukrajin\u011b? T\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e od americk\u00fdch analytik\u016f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zn\u00e1m\u00e9 americk\u00e9 analytick\u00e9 centrum Rand Corporation vydalo zpr\u00e1vu o pravd\u011bpodobnosti p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 v\u00e1lky mezi NATO a Ruskem na pozad\u00ed konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edm z\u00e1v\u011brem zpr\u00e1vy je, \u017ee existuje mo\u017enost p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho st\u0159etu, pokud by se Rusko domn\u00edvalo, \u017ee se Aliance p\u0159ipravuje k \u00fatoku na Ruskou federaci na \u00fazem\u00ed Ukrajiny.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eNejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm rizikem, \u017ee se Rusko rozhodne ude\u0159it p\u0159\u00edmo na spojence NATO, bude, \u017ee Moskva uzn\u00e1 nevyhnutelnost rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f NATO na rusk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly na Ukrajin\u011b,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed zpr\u00e1va.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato my\u0161lenka m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt vyvol\u00e1na jak omezenou \u00fa\u010dast\u00ed sil NATO v operac\u00edch na Ukrajin\u011b, tak i koncentrac\u00ed jednotek v \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch sestav\u00e1ch na v\u00fdchodn\u00ed hranici Aliance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eZa takov\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed se Moskva m\u016f\u017ee rozhodnout, \u017ee nem\u00e1 jinou mo\u017enost, ne\u017e sn\u00ed\u017eit \u0161kody, kter\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee NATO zp\u016fsobit t\u00edm, \u017ee nejprve zas\u00e1hne kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 spojeneck\u00e9 s\u00edly,\u201c p\u00ed\u0161e Rand.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Podle analytik\u016f nav\u00edc m\u016f\u017ee okam\u017eit\u011b j\u00edt o taktick\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, co\u017e souvis\u00ed s \u00fadajn\u00fdm vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00edm rusk\u00fdch z\u00e1sob konven\u010dn\u00edch raket, kter\u00e9 jsou z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti vynakl\u00e1d\u00e1ny na \u00fadery proti Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Analytici vyjmenov\u00e1vaj\u00ed konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed zn\u00e1mky, podle kter\u00fdch m\u016f\u017ee Rusko usoudit, \u017ee se Aliance chyst\u00e1 zas\u00e1hnout:<\/span><\/p>\n

1.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Politick\u00e9 a medi\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdzvy k v\u00e1lce proti Rusk\u00e9 federaci na Z\u00e1pad\u011b.\u00a0Rand nevylu\u010duje, \u017ee jejich po\u010det poroste kv\u016fli tomu, \u017ee sankce a dal\u0161\u00ed nevojensk\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed v\u016f\u010di Moskv\u011b jsou ji\u017e z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti vy\u010derp\u00e1ny.<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e takov\u00e9 v\u00fdzvy zazn\u00edvaj\u00ed hlavn\u011b v m\u00e9di\u00edch a obecn\u011b nejsou podporov\u00e1ny \u00fa\u0159ady, v Rusku to lze pova\u017eovat za p\u0159\u00edpravu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed na budouc\u00ed v\u00e1lku.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eZa takov\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee Rusko doj\u00edt k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 intervence NATO se stala vysoce pravd\u011bpodobnou nebo dokonce nevyhnutelnou, bez ohledu na to, co \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed zpr\u00e1va.\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Pokud se v\u0161ak k medi\u00e1ln\u00ed kampani p\u0159id\u00e1 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 p\u0159ipravenost nebo pokro\u010dil\u00e9 nasazen\u00ed d\u00e1lkov\u00fdch \u00fadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, jsou mo\u017en\u00e9 preventivn\u00ed \u00fadery Rusk\u00e9 federace na prost\u0159edky podpory \u00fatok\u016f NATO.\u00a0Toti\u017e satelity a elektronick\u00e9 syst\u00e9my k \u201eosln\u011bn\u00ed\u201c sil Aliance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

2.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Pokud si Rusko \u201e\u0161patn\u011b vylo\u017e\u00ed\u201c posilov\u00e1n\u00ed NATO na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle.\u00a0Hromad\u011bn\u00ed voj\u00e1k\u016f pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nezp\u016fsob\u00ed preventivn\u00ed \u00fader, ale pokud se tam za\u010dnou p\u0159iv\u00e1\u017eet zbran\u011b dlouh\u00e9ho doletu schopn\u00e9 \u201edekapitovat vojensk\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 veden\u00ed Ruska\u201c, pak to Moskva m\u016f\u017ee pova\u017eovat za p\u0159\u00edmou hrozbu a \u00fatok.<\/span><\/p>\n

3.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Pokud bude \u00fa\u010dast vojensk\u00fdch dobrovoln\u00edk\u016f ze zem\u00ed NATO na \u00fazem\u00ed Ukrajiny p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 n\u00e1padn\u00e1.\u00a0A prudce poroste i nab\u00eddka nov\u00fdch typ\u016f zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pak se Moskva m\u016f\u017ee domn\u00edvat, \u017ee Aliance ji\u017e do konfliktu p\u0159\u00edmo zas\u00e1hla.\u00a0Reakc\u00ed Ruska by mohlo b\u00fdt veden\u00ed podobn\u00fdch operac\u00ed na \u00fazem\u00ed zem\u00ed NATO nebo v bl\u00edzkosti jejich hranic.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud se tok zbran\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed natolik, \u017ee to ohroz\u00ed celou speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operaci (a za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee tento tok uvnit\u0159 Ukrajiny nebude mo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159eru\u0161it), auto\u0159i zpr\u00e1vy nevylu\u010duj\u00ed \u00fatoky na z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed linky NATO.\u00a0A tak\u00e9 pro jak\u00e9koli jin\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dely, kter\u00e9 uk\u00e1\u017eou v\u00e1\u017enost z\u00e1m\u011br\u016f Rusk\u00e9 federace.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto \u00fadery nav\u00edc nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt nutn\u011b raketov\u00fdmi \u00fadery: nejsou vylou\u010deny kybernetick\u00e9 \u00fatoky a dal\u0161\u00ed typy skryt\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho vlivu (nap\u0159\u00edklad ni\u010den\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch sklad\u016f sabot\u00e9ry na \u00fazem\u00ed zem\u00ed NATO).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Analytici rovn\u011b\u017e navrhuj\u00ed zv\u00e1\u017eit komplex t\u011bchto faktor\u016f jako p\u0159edpoklad p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 v\u00e1lky mezi Ruskou federac\u00ed a NATO.\u00a0V\u010detn\u011b toho, zda se tyto p\u0159\u00edznaky spoj\u00ed s protivl\u00e1dn\u00edmi protesty v Rusku (kter\u00e9 bude Moskva pova\u017eovat za pokus o svr\u017een\u00ed re\u017eimu vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi silami).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Po vyjmenov\u00e1n\u00ed rizik p\u0159ech\u00e1z\u00ed Rand k doporu\u010den\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Okam\u017eit\u011b se objevuje v\u00fdhrada, \u017ee v\u00e1lka mezi Ruskem a Alianc\u00ed nen\u00ed nevyhnuteln\u00e1.\u00a0Hlavn\u00ed v\u011bc\u00ed pro USA a spojence je sledovat potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed spou\u0161t\u011b\u010de.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

„Nem\u011bli by ale jednat na z\u00e1klad\u011b p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd krok bude znamenat akutn\u00ed eskala\u010dn\u00ed rizika,“ varuje korporace.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 by podle Randa m\u011bli ud\u011blat n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed:<\/strong><\/p>\n

1.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Pokra\u010dujte v tom, \u017ee se nechystaj\u00ed bojovat p\u0159\u00edmo s Ruskou federac\u00ed.\u00a0A to nejen ve\u0159ejn\u011b, ale p\u0159ed\u00e1vat to i diplomatickou cestou.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

2<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.\u00a0Pos\u00edlit obrann\u00e9 schopnosti NATO na v\u00fdchod\u011b, ale d\u00e1vat pozor na nasazen\u00ed zbran\u00ed dlouh\u00e9ho doletu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

3<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.\u00a0Nov\u00e9 s\u00edly rozmis\u0165ujte na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle postupn\u011b, \u201eaby nevznikl fale\u0161n\u00fd dojem o p\u0159\u00edprav\u00e1ch na \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 operace\u201c.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

4<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.\u00a0Rozpt\u00fdlit a skr\u00fdt skladi\u0161t\u011b zbran\u00ed pro Ukrajinu, aby Moskva nem\u011bla mo\u017enost je zas\u00e1hnout n\u011bkolika ranami (co\u017e sni\u017euje pravd\u011bpodobnost takov\u00e9ho rozhodnut\u00ed).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

5<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.\u00a0Ned\u011blejte prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed o zm\u011bn\u011b moci v Rusku.\u00a0„Prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u016fdc\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed v\u00fdslovn\u011b vyz\u00fdvaj\u00ed ke zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu, by mohlo zv\u00fd\u0161it riziko, \u017ee Kreml bude pova\u017eovat p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd konflikt proti NATO za nezbytn\u00fd pro p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed re\u017eimu.“<\/span><\/p>\n

6<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.\u00a0Prodlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b s sebou nese riziko aktivace n\u011bkolika popsan\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f pro zah\u00e1jen\u00ed v\u00e1lky mezi Ruskem a NATO najednou.\u00a0A s t\u00edm je t\u0159eba okam\u017eit\u011b po\u010d\u00edtat p\u0159i pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed jak\u00fdchkoliv krok\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

7<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.\u00a0Eskalace a p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd konflikt mezi Ruskou federac\u00ed a NATO m\u016f\u017ee vzniknout ze zd\u00e1nliv\u011b bezv\u00fdznamn\u00fdch akc\u00ed, tak\u017ee je t\u0159eba p\u0159edem propo\u010d\u00edtat ka\u017ed\u00fd krok.\u00a0\u201eSpir\u00e1ly eskalace mezi NATO a Ruskem se stejn\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b rozto\u010d\u00ed z akc\u00ed Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a jejich spojenc\u016f jako z akc\u00ed Ruska,\u201c<\/strong> p\u00ed\u0161\u00ed auto\u0159i zpr\u00e1vy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159es tuto v\u00fdhradu zpr\u00e1va nazna\u010duje, \u017ee inici\u00e1torem konfliktu s NATO se m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t pouze Rusko, kter\u00e9 \u201e\u0161patn\u011b ch\u00e1pe\u201c n\u011bkter\u00e9 kroky Aliance.\u00a0Ve zpr\u00e1v\u011b se p\u0159itom nepo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 ani s teoretickou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad pl\u00e1nuje zah\u00e1jit preventivn\u00ed \u00fadery proti Rusk\u00e9 federaci.\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zn\u00e1m\u00e9 americk\u00e9 analytick\u00e9 centrum Rand Corporation vydalo zpr\u00e1vu o pravd\u011bpodobnosti p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 v\u00e1lky mezi NATO a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":12849,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[2449,39,22,26,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12848"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12848"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12848\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12849"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12848"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12848"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12848"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}