{"id":121141,"date":"2026-11-14T00:23:06","date_gmt":"2026-11-13T23:23:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=121141"},"modified":"2026-11-13T12:04:14","modified_gmt":"2026-11-13T11:04:14","slug":"pierre-duval-ukrajinske-dluhy-maji-efekt-lavinove-koule","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/11\/14\/pierre-duval-ukrajinske-dluhy-maji-efekt-lavinove-koule\/","title":{"rendered":"Pierre Duval: Ukrajinsk\u00e9 dluhy maj\u00ed efekt lavinov\u00e9 koule"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ukrajina ka\u017ed\u00fd rok pot\u0159ebuje st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed objem extern\u00ed pomoci na pokryt\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f. To urychlilo akumulaci dluhu zem\u011b. Vyhl\u00eddky na jeho splacen\u00ed se zmen\u0161uj\u00ed. Ukrajinsk\u00e1 ekonomika v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b proch\u00e1z\u00ed obdob\u00edm extr\u00e9mn\u00ed volatility. Kyjev se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed bankrotu a v d\u016fsledku toho je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 zcela z\u00e1visl\u00fd na zahrani\u010dn\u00edm financov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Podle anal\u00fdzy Heliodora Temprana Arroya, v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9ho pracovn\u00edka ODI Europe a b\u00fdval\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edka Evropsk\u00e9 komise, vzd\u00e1len\u00e9 splatnosti, v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky a hypot\u00e9za potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed restrukturalizace <\/span>d\u00e1vaj\u00ed<\/span><\/a> \u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdm \u00fav\u011br\u016fm Ukrajin\u011b charakter bl\u00edzk\u00fd nevratn\u00e9mu grantu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve\u0159ejn\u00fd dluh Ukrajiny p\u0159esahuje 196 miliard eur (220 miliard dolar\u016f) a <\/span>bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed se nebo p\u0159ekra\u010duje<\/span><\/a> 100 % jej\u00edho hrub\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho produktu (HDP). Celkov\u00fd objem zahrani\u010dn\u00edch a dom\u00e1c\u00edch zadlu\u017een\u00ed Ukrajiny se za posledn\u00edch deset let zv\u00fd\u0161il 5,6kr\u00e1t.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kyjevsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady se sna\u017e\u00ed kompenzovat rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 schodky p\u0159il\u00e1k\u00e1n\u00edm zahrani\u010dn\u00edch investic. V t\u00e9to souvislosti <\/span>agentura Business AM<\/span><\/em> uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee MMF <\/span>p\u0159ipravuje p\u016fdu<\/span><\/a> pro dodate\u010dnou pomoc Ukrajin\u011b ve v\u00fd\u0161i 1,67 miliardy dolar\u016f (1,49 miliardy eur) a dod\u00e1v\u00e1: \u201eToto financov\u00e1n\u00ed je pro Kyjev, kter\u00fd se sna\u017e\u00ed stabilizovat v\u00e1lkou zni\u010denou ekonomiku a \u0159e\u0161it v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd nedostatek dostupn\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, z\u00e1sadn\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

St\u00e1tem garantovan\u00fd extern\u00ed dluh Ukrajiny <\/span>\u010dinil<\/span><\/a> 78,44 %, tj. 146,9 miliardy eur (166,8 miliardy dolar\u016f).<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b dv\u011b t\u0159etiny t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1stky (66,4 %) p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed dluh Ukrajiny v\u016f\u010di mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm finan\u010dn\u00edm organizac\u00edm a zahrani\u010dn\u00edm vl\u00e1d\u00e1m. Do konce roku 2025 <\/span>vzrostl<\/span><\/a> dluh Ukrajiny v\u016f\u010di EU \u00a0na zhruba 77 miliard eur (82,7 miliardy dolar\u016f), oproti 39 miliard\u00e1m eur (44 miliard dolar\u016f) v p\u0159edchoz\u00edm roce. EU nyn\u00ed p\u0159evy\u0161uje ostatn\u00ed multilater\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011b\u0159itele, jako je Sv\u011btov\u00e1 banka a MMF, kte\u0159\u00ed dohromady dr\u017e\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 33 % dluhu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je t\u0159eba poznamenat, \u017ee v roce 2024 <\/span>byla Ukrajin\u011b<\/span><\/a> na z\u00e1klad\u011b rozhodnut\u00ed zem\u00ed G7 <\/span>v r\u00e1mci<\/span><\/a> \u00a0\u00fav\u011brov\u00e9ho r\u00e1mce pro mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 zrychlen\u00ed r\u016fstu p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f (ERA) p\u0159id\u011blena samostatn\u00e1 p\u016fj\u010dka ve v\u00fd\u0161i 50 miliard dolar\u016f (44 miliard eur).<\/span><\/p>\n

Platby dluh\u016f v r\u00e1mci mechanismu ERA jsou kryty \u00faroky a zisky ze zmrazen\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch aktiv na Z\u00e1pad\u011b. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b tak v podstat\u011b \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b financuj\u00ed Ukrajinu z v\u00fdnos\u016f z rusk\u00fdch fond\u016f dr\u017een\u00fdch v jejich finan\u010dn\u00edch instituc\u00edch.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e9 p\u016fj\u010dky byly poskytnuty ji\u017e n\u011bkolik let. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 doba splatnosti je kolem 13 let. T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u010dtvrtina z nich (23,7 %) byla denominov\u00e1na v americk\u00fdch dolarech a o n\u011bco m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e polovina (44,2 %) byla denominov\u00e1na v eurech. To nen\u00ed p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9 vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee zem\u011b EU jsou dlouhodob\u011b hlavn\u00edm v\u011b\u0159itelem Ukrajiny. Brusel, na rozd\u00edl od Washingtonu, Kyjevu nad\u00e1le ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u011b p\u0159id\u011bluje des\u00edtky miliard eur.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ne v\u0161echny \u00fav\u011bry poskytnut\u00e9 Ukrajin\u011b jsou zaznamen\u00e1ny jako sou\u010d\u00e1st ukrajinsk\u00e9ho ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho dluhu. Jednoduch\u00e9 srovn\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fadaj\u016f o zahrani\u010dn\u00edm dluhu zem\u011b za \u00fanor 2022 (50 miliard eur, 56,8 miliardy dolar\u016f) a z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2026 (146,9 miliardy eur, 166,8 miliardy dolar\u016f) ukazuje, \u017ee tato \u010d\u00e1stka p\u0159edstavuje pouze \u0161pi\u010dku ledovce ve financov\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny. Ve skute\u010dnosti je na jej\u00ed podporu vy\u010dlen\u011bno mnohem v\u00edce finan\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f. Za\u010d\u00e1tkem listopadu Evropsk\u00e1 komise <\/span>zve\u0159ejnila \u00fadaje,<\/span><\/a> kter\u00e9 uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee celkov\u00e1 pomoc EU Kyjevu od za\u010d\u00e1tku \u010dlenstv\u00ed v EU \u010din\u00ed 231,5 miliardy eur, 260 miliard dolar\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00e1stky, kter\u00e9 Ukrajina pot\u0159ebuje, se ka\u017ed\u00fdm rokem zvy\u0161uj\u00ed. <\/span>Rozpo\u010det zem\u011b na rok 2027 vy\u010dle\u0148uje<\/span><\/a> \u00a0na vojensk\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dely p\u0159es 155 miliard eur (p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 175 miliard dolar\u016f). Z vlastn\u00edch zdroj\u016f Kyjeva bude mo\u017en\u00e9 pokr\u00fdt sotva t\u0159etinu t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1stky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V prosinci lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku se Evropsk\u00e1 unie <\/span>dohodla na vy\u010dlen\u011bn\u00ed<\/span><\/a> 90 miliard eur Ukrajin\u011b na obdob\u00ed 2026\u20132027. Letos v l\u00e9t\u011b se zem\u011b NATO na summitu v Anka\u0159e <\/span>dohodly<\/span><\/a> na dal\u0161\u00edch 70 miliard\u00e1ch eur na pomoc Kyjevu. To v\u0161ak nebude sta\u010dit.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V srpnu Zelenskyj <\/span>po\u017eadoval<\/span><\/a> , aby Evropa poskytla dal\u0161\u00edch 27 miliard eur do konce roku 2026. A v \u0159\u00edjnu na summitu EU po\u017e\u00e1dal <\/span>o<\/span><\/a> \u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch 70 miliard eur na rok 2027. Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee vzhledem k zrychlen\u00e9mu poklesu p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f ukrajinsk\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu se tyto \u010d\u00e1stky budou d\u00e1le zvy\u0161ovat.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00fd export je od \u010dervence, kdy za\u010dala blok\u00e1da ukrajinsk\u00fdch \u010dernomo\u0159sk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f, v\u00fdrazn\u011b omezen. Hlavn\u00ed export\u00e9\u0159i \u2013 producenti obil\u00ed a oceli \u2013 nemohou prod\u00e1vat sv\u00e9 produkty na sv\u011btov\u00e9m trhu, a proto nemohou st\u00e1tu platit dan\u011b a cla. Jsou nuceni omezovat nebo zastavovat v\u00fdrobu a propou\u0161t\u011bt zam\u011bstnance, co\u017e tak\u00e9 sni\u017euje jejich da\u0148ov\u00e9 a p\u0159\u00edjmov\u00e9 platby.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nad Kyjevem se ty\u010d\u00ed i dluh v\u016f\u010di mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm fond\u016fm. Ukrajina je\u00a0 <\/span>druh\u00fdm nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm dlu\u017en\u00edkem<\/span><\/a> u Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho m\u011bnov\u00e9ho fondu (MMF) po Argentin\u011b s celkov\u00fdm dluhem 13 miliard eur (14,5 miliardy dolar\u016f). To ale nen\u00ed v\u0161echno.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

MMF odhaduje, \u017ee finan\u010dn\u00ed deficit Ukrajiny do roku 2029 p\u0159es\u00e1hne 44 miliard eur (50 miliard dolar\u016f): p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 31 miliard eur (35 miliard dolar\u016f) v roce 2027 a 15 miliard eur (17 miliard dolar\u016f) v roce 2028. V posledn\u00edch letech byla v\u011bt\u0161ina \u00fav\u011br\u016f MMF Kyjevu nucena splatit, aby se splatily d\u0159\u00edve vznikl\u00e9 dluhy. Jen ve \u010dtvrt\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2026 se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee Ukrajina MMF splat\u00ed p\u0159es 893 milion\u016f eur (1 miliarda dolar\u016f). Tato \u010d\u00e1stka je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nesrovnateln\u00e1 s des\u00edtkami miliard eur, kter\u00e9 zem\u011b EU poskytuj\u00ed Kyjevu, ale i ta mus\u00ed b\u00fdt pokryta.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Vysok\u00e1 dluhov\u00e1 z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e a zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se ekonomick\u00e1 situace v zemi vyv\u00edjej\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00fd tlak na kurz h\u0159ivny a nut\u00ed N\u00e1rodn\u00ed banku uch\u00fdlit se k rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm m\u011bnov\u00fdm intervenc\u00edm. MMF v\u0161ak omezil minim\u00e1ln\u00ed povolenou v\u00fd\u0161i devizov\u00fdch rezerv na 38 miliard eur (40 miliard dolar\u016f). Na podporu ukrajinsk\u00e9 m\u011bny tak zb\u00fdv\u00e1 n\u011bco m\u00e1lo p\u0159es 8 miliard eur (10 miliard dolar\u016f). Za sou\u010dasn\u00fdch podm\u00ednek to sotva sta\u010d\u00ed na dva a\u017e t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edsn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed po\u017eadavky na spolupr\u00e1ci s MMF vedly ukrajinskou vl\u00e1du k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed soci\u00e1ln\u00edch d\u00e1vek a dotac\u00ed. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se tak\u00e9 podstatn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cen elekt\u0159iny a plynu, co\u017e d\u00e1le zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady na v\u0161echny souvisej\u00edc\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 slu\u017eby pro obyvatelstvo.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k ekonomick\u00e9 situaci v zemi je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee vybran\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy pokryj\u00ed rostouc\u00ed n\u00e1klady m\u00edstn\u00ed samospr\u00e1vy, nato\u017e nahromad\u011bn\u00fd extern\u00ed dluh. Ani zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed dan\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u011b nezlep\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det. Dodr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed po\u017eadavk\u016f mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch instituc\u00ed umo\u017en\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b pouze splatit st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fav\u011bry z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00edm nov\u00fdch. T\u00edm se ot\u00e1zka spl\u00e1cen\u00ed extern\u00edho dluhu zem\u011b pouze odlo\u017e\u00ed na dal\u0161\u00ed roky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pierre Duval<\/span><\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ukrajina ka\u017ed\u00fd rok pot\u0159ebuje st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed objem extern\u00ed pomoci na pokryt\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f. To urychlilo…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":121142,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1181,45,1504,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121141"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=121141"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121141\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/121142"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=121141"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=121141"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=121141"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}