{"id":121069,"date":"2026-11-13T00:34:30","date_gmt":"2026-11-12T23:34:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=121069"},"modified":"2026-11-12T17:41:22","modified_gmt":"2026-11-12T16:41:22","slug":"pouze-13-procenta-z-fosilnich-paliv-nova-studie-o-co%e2%82%82-bori-klimaticke-dogma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/11\/13\/pouze-13-procenta-z-fosilnich-paliv-nova-studie-o-co%e2%82%82-bori-klimaticke-dogma\/","title":{"rendered":"Pouze 1,3 procenta z fosiln\u00edch paliv? Nov\u00e1 studie o CO\u2082 bo\u0159\u00ed klimatick\u00e9 dogma"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zat\u00edmco brusel\u0161t\u00ed eurokrat\u00e9 pos\u00edlaj\u00ed evropskou ekonomiku svou posedlost\u00ed nulov\u00fdmi emisemi do n\u00e1kladn\u00e9 rekonstrukce, dva v\u011bdci zpochyb\u0148uj\u00ed \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklad klimatick\u00e9 politiky. Podle jejich v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f fosiln\u00ed paliva vysv\u011btluj\u00ed maxim\u00e1ln\u011b 26 procent n\u00e1r\u016fstu atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9ho CO\u2082 \u2013 a p\u0159i zapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed historick\u00fdch m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed dokonce pouze 1,3 procenta. V\u011bdci sv\u00e1 zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed zakl\u00e1daj\u00ed na chemick\u00e9m otisku uhl\u00edku. Tato explozivn\u00ed teze znovu rozdm\u00fdch\u00e1v\u00e1 debatu o p\u0159\u00ed\u010din\u00e1ch rostouc\u00edho CO\u2082.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Jak velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st rostouc\u00edho obsahu CO\u2082 v na\u0161\u00ed atmosf\u00e9\u0159e je ve skute\u010dnosti p\u0159i\u010ditateln\u00e1 lidstvu? Pro IPCC (Mezivl\u00e1dn\u00ed panel pro zm\u011bnu klimatu) a klimatick\u00e9 aktivisty je odpov\u011b\u010f prakticky p\u0159edem jasn\u00e1: n\u00e1r\u016fst od industrializace je v podstat\u011b zp\u016fsoben \u010dlov\u011bkem. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b tohoto p\u0159edpokladu se zahajuj\u00ed dekarboniza\u010dn\u00ed programy v hodnot\u011b mnoha miliard dolar\u016f, firmy \u010del\u00ed st\u00e1le p\u0159\u00edsn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm emisn\u00edm c\u00edl\u016fm a ob\u010dan\u00e9 jako koncov\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 jsou zat\u011b\u017eov\u00e1ni dodate\u010dn\u00fdmi n\u00e1klady v d\u016fsledku dan\u00ed z CO\u2082. Dva v\u011bdci v\u0161ak nyn\u00ed toto p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed vysv\u011btlen\u00ed testuj\u00ed \u2013 a dosp\u011bli k \u010d\u00edsl\u016fm, kter\u00e1 jednodu\u0161e neodpov\u00eddaj\u00ed politick\u00e9mu klimatick\u00e9mu narativu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Matematik Jonathan Cohler a klimatolog Willie Soon publikovali studii, kter\u00e1 nazna\u010duje, \u017ee fosiln\u00ed paliva p\u0159isp\u00edvaj\u00ed k \u010dist\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9ho CO\u2082 maxim\u00e1ln\u011b 26 procenty. Pokud se vezmou v \u00favahu historick\u00e1 data z ledov\u00fdch jader a mo\u0159sk\u00fdch hub, toto \u010d\u00edslo v jejich modelu kles\u00e1 na pouh\u00fdch 1,3 procenta. V\u011bdci to <\/span>pova\u017euj\u00ed<\/span><\/a> za matematick\u00fd rozpor s p\u0159edpokladem, \u017ee za drtivou v\u011bt\u0161inu n\u00e1r\u016fstu je zodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 spalov\u00e1n\u00ed uhl\u00ed, ropy a plynu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Chemick\u00fd otisk CO\u2082<\/span><\/h3>\n

\u010cl\u00e1nek, p\u0159ijat\u00fd 21. \u0159\u00edjna 2026 v \u010dasopise Science of Climate Change, nese n\u00e1zev \u201e <\/span>Matematick\u00e9 falzifikov\u00e1n\u00ed hypot\u00e9zy o rostouc\u00edm obsahu CO\u2082 v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e, kter\u00e1 je dominantou fosiln\u00edch paliv, s vyu\u017eit\u00edm Keelingova vztahu<\/span><\/a> .\u201c Cohler a Soon se zab\u00fdvaj\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm detailem: zat\u00edmco oxid uhli\u010dit\u00fd je chemicky v\u017edy stejn\u00fd plyn, izotopy uhl\u00edku, kter\u00e9 obsahuje, umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed vyvodit z\u00e1v\u011bry o jeho p\u016fvodu. Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b d\u016fle\u017eitou roli hraj\u00ed dva stabiln\u00ed izotopy C-12 a C-13. Fosiln\u00ed paliva obsahuj\u00ed relativn\u011b m\u00e1lo C-13, a proto maj\u00ed charakteristick\u00fd izotopov\u00fd podpis p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b -28 ppm. P\u0159irozen\u011b uvol\u0148ovan\u00fd oxid uhli\u010dit\u00fd z oce\u00e1n\u016f m\u00e1 naopak izotopov\u00fd podpis p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b -8 ppm. V\u011bdci tyto rozd\u00edly vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed k pokusu o ur\u010den\u00ed zdroj\u016f uhl\u00edku v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cohler a Soon \u010derpaj\u00ed z nam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch dat z Alja\u0161ky, Kalifornie, Havaje a Antarktidy. Statistick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza, kterou pou\u017eili s vyu\u017eit\u00edm Keelingovy regrese, poskytuje izotopovou signaturu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b m\u00ednus 13,2 ppm pro \u010dist\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst atmosf\u00e9ry. Podle jejich v\u00fdpo\u010detn\u00edho modelu by se tato hodnota m\u011bla v\u00fdrazn\u011b bl\u00ed\u017eit otisku fosiln\u00edch paliv, pokud by spalov\u00e1n\u00ed fosiln\u00edch paliv skute\u010dn\u011b p\u0159edstavovalo v\u011bt\u0161inu n\u00e1r\u016fstu. V\u011bdci jdou ve sv\u00e9m zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed historick\u00fdch dat je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1le. Izotopov\u00e9 z\u00e1znamy z karibsk\u00fdch mo\u0159sk\u00fdch hub, sahaj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 500 let do minulosti, \u00fadajn\u011b ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee jimi stanoven\u00e1 signatura z\u016fstala do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry stabiln\u00ed i p\u0159es enormn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst emis\u00ed fosiln\u00edch paliv. Z toho Cohler a Soon odvozuj\u00ed sv\u016fj obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b dalekos\u00e1hl\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br: Podle jejich modelu \u010din\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek fosiln\u00edch paliv k \u010dist\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu atmosf\u00e9ry pouze asi 1,3 procenta a je prakticky nerozeznateln\u00fd od nuly v r\u00e1mci uveden\u00e9 nejistoty m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ji\u017e p\u0159edchoz\u00ed studie zpochybnily vysv\u011btlen\u00ed pomoc\u00ed CO\u2082.<\/span><\/h3>\n

Tento v\u00fdzkumn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup nen\u00ed zcela nov\u00fd. Ji\u017e v srpnu 2025 <\/span>informoval<\/span><\/a> Report24 o studii \u0159eck\u00e9ho hydrologa Demetrise Koutsoyiannise z N\u00e1rodn\u00ed technick\u00e9 univerzity v At\u00e9n\u00e1ch. I on zkoumal izotopov\u00e9 podpisy atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9ho oxidu uhli\u010dit\u00e9ho a tvrdil, \u017ee vliv fosiln\u00edch emis\u00ed nelze odvodit z odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edch nam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch dat zp\u016fsobem, jak\u00fdm to p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed zaveden\u00e9 uhl\u00edkov\u00e9 modely.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cohler a Soon se na tento argument vyjad\u0159uj\u00ed a dopl\u0148uj\u00ed jej matematick\u00fdm odhadem p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku fosiln\u00edch paliv. To odli\u0161uje jejich novou pr\u00e1ci od d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed studie: neomezuj\u00ed se na stanoven\u00ed p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b konstantn\u00ed vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9 izotopov\u00e9 signatury \u010dist\u00e9ho n\u00e1r\u016fstu, ale pokou\u0161ej\u00ed se z n\u00ed odvodit konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed horn\u00ed hranici p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku fosiln\u00edch paliv. V\u011bdeck\u00e1 kontroverze ohledn\u011b nam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch dat se tak st\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm \u00fatokem na jeden z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch p\u0159edpoklad\u016f mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed klimatick\u00e9 politiky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Brusel u\u017e d\u00e1vno zakotvil svou politiku dekarbonizace v z\u00e1kon\u011b.<\/span><\/h3>\n

Zat\u00edmco v\u011bdci debatuj\u00ed o pom\u011brech izotop\u016f, p\u0159irozen\u00fdch \u00falo\u017ei\u0161t\u00edch uhl\u00edku a prediktivn\u00ed s\u00edle matematick\u00fdch model\u016f, politi\u010dt\u00ed v\u016fdci v Bruselu ji\u017e zakotvili sv\u00e9 c\u00edle v oblasti klimatick\u00e9 politiky v z\u00e1kon\u011b. Do roku 2030 se mus\u00ed \u010dist\u00e9 emise sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f sn\u00ed\u017eit nejm\u00e9n\u011b o 55 procent ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u00farovn\u011bmi z roku 1990. Pro rok 2040 nyn\u00ed plat\u00ed z\u00e1vazn\u00fd c\u00edl sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed o 90 procent, z \u010deho\u017e m\u00e1 b\u00fdt v r\u00e1mci EU dosa\u017eeno alespo\u0148 85 procentn\u00edch bod\u016f. Evropa m\u00e1 b\u00fdt klimaticky neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed nejpozd\u011bji do roku 2050.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro klimatick\u00e9 fanatiky v Evropsk\u00e9 komisi to m\u016f\u017ee zn\u00edt jako slavn\u00e1 zelen\u00e1 budoucnost. Pro podniky a spot\u0159ebitele v\u0161ak implementace znamen\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edpisy, investi\u010dn\u00ed po\u017eadavky a n\u00e1klady. Obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s emisemi stanov\u00ed cenu za emise oxidu uhli\u010dit\u00e9ho, zat\u00edmco dal\u0161\u00ed regulace klimatick\u00e9 politiky transformuj\u00ed dod\u00e1vky energie, dopravu a pr\u016fmysl. A kdo za to zaplat\u00ed, nen\u00ed vzhledem k ekonomick\u00e9 trajektorii Evropy \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm tajemstv\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dn\u00e1 politick\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka tak p\u0159esahuje v\u00fdpo\u010dty Cohlera a Soona. Ani v\u011bdecky p\u0159esn\u00e9 vysv\u011btlen\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fstu atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9ho CO\u2082 zat\u00edm neodpov\u00edd\u00e1 na ot\u00e1zku, zda jsou opat\u0159en\u00ed p\u0159edepsan\u00e1 Bruselem ekonomicky rozumn\u00e1, p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 a skute\u010dn\u011b \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1. V kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku existuje obrovsk\u00fd rozd\u00edl mezi stanoven\u00edm fyzick\u00e9 korelace a politick\u00fdm rozhodnut\u00edm o restrukturalizaci cel\u00fdch pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esn\u011b o tom se samozvan\u00ed zachr\u00e1nci klimatu zdr\u00e1haj\u00ed diskutovat. M\u00edsto aby zva\u017eovali n\u00e1klady a konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ednosy sv\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed, neust\u00e1le oznamuj\u00ed nov\u00e9 emisn\u00ed c\u00edle. Ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo kritizuje zvolen\u00fd kurz, je \u010dasto obvi\u0148ov\u00e1n ze zpochyb\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u011bdy \u2013 nebo je dokonce ozna\u010den za pop\u00edra\u010de klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn. Jako by v\u011bdeck\u00e9 poznatky mohly p\u0159\u00edmo ospravedlnit jak\u00e9koli dan\u011b z CO\u2082 a vl\u00e1dou na\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 transforma\u010dn\u00ed programy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Studie Cohlera a Soona d\u00e1le rozproud\u00ed v\u011bdeckou debatu o uhl\u00edkov\u00fdch cyklech. Jejich nejrozs\u00e1hlej\u0161\u00ed tvrzen\u00ed mus\u00ed b\u00fdt porovn\u00e1no se skute\u010dn\u00fdmi uhl\u00edkov\u00fdmi bilancemi. Pro bruselsk\u00e9 tv\u016frce klimatick\u00fdch politik v\u0161ak plat\u00ed stejn\u011b jednoduch\u00e9 pravidlo: ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo chce ve jm\u00e9nu ochrany klimatu obr\u00e1tit evropskou ekonomiku vzh\u016fru nohama, by m\u011bl b\u00fdt schopen ob\u010dan\u016fm vysv\u011btlit, jak\u00e9 m\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e9 v\u00fdhody za po\u017eadovan\u00e9 miliardy z\u00edskaj\u00ed. Pouh\u00fd odkaz na Mezivl\u00e1dn\u00ed panel pro zm\u011bnu klimatu (IPCC) koneckonc\u016f nen\u00ed anal\u00fdza n\u00e1klad\u016f a p\u0159\u00ednos\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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Zat\u00edmco brusel\u0161t\u00ed eurokrat\u00e9 pos\u00edlaj\u00ed evropskou ekonomiku svou posedlost\u00ed nulov\u00fdmi emisemi do n\u00e1kladn\u00e9 rekonstrukce, dva v\u011bdci…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":121070,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[2692,873,839],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121069"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=121069"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121069\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/121070"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=121069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=121069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=121069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}