{"id":120973,"date":"2026-11-12T00:16:44","date_gmt":"2026-11-11T23:16:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=120973"},"modified":"2026-11-11T13:10:38","modified_gmt":"2026-11-11T12:10:38","slug":"ivo-sebestik-v4-nebo-spise-v2-plus-minus-v2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/11\/12\/ivo-sebestik-v4-nebo-spise-v2-plus-minus-v2\/","title":{"rendered":"Ivo \u0160ebest\u00edk: V4 nebo sp\u00ed\u0161e V2 plus (minus) V2?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Nikoliv, nenab\u00edz\u00edm zde n\u011bjakou variantu Einstenovy rovnici o relativit\u011b, t\u0159eba\u017ee se o jistou formu relativity dost mo\u017en\u00e1 skute\u010dn\u011b jedn\u00e1. Premi\u00e9r \u010desk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, Andrej Babi\u0161, si tu a tam pochvaluje, \u017ee st\u0159edoevropsk\u00fd form\u00e1t spolupr\u00e1ce, Visegr\u00e1dsk\u00e1 \u010dty\u0159ka (V4), funguje. Jakoby se znovu probouzela ze snu \u0160\u00edpkov\u00e1 R\u016f\u017eenka.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ob\u00e1v\u00e1m se, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o iluzi. Ona Visegr\u00e1dsk\u00e1 \u010dty\u0159ka (skupina) se toti\u017e ve skute\u010dnosti skl\u00e1d\u00e1 ze dvou dvojic st\u00e1t\u016f, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e ony dvojice se navz\u00e1jem pom\u011brn\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u011b li\u0161\u00ed, a to nejenom svoj\u00ed tradi\u010dn\u00ed historickou orientac\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 t\u00edm, co z\u00a0on\u00e9 historie prosakuje, a co zakl\u00e1d\u00e1 probl\u00e9m p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm z\u00a0hlediska jejich politick\u00e9ho, z\u00e1jmov\u00e9ho a mocensk\u00e9ho sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prvn\u00ed dvojici st\u00e1t\u016f tvo\u0159\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e1 republika a Slovensko. Onou druhou dvojic\u00ed jsou Polsko a Ma\u010farsko. A pr\u00e1v\u011b tato druh\u00e1 dvojice p\u0159edstavuje onen v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd probl\u00e9m. T\u011b\u017eko rozhodnout, zda je to dob\u0159e nebo se jedn\u00e1 jen o znak jist\u00e9 pasivity \u010di snad i rezignace, ale \u010cesk\u00e1 republika a Slovensko jsou dva evropsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 pat\u0159\u00ed ke vz\u00e1cn\u00fdm v\u00fdjimk\u00e1m cel\u00e9ho kontinentu, nebo\u0165 jsou v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b spokojen\u00e9 s\u00a0t\u00edm, co maj\u00ed, \u010deho ve sv\u00fdch d\u011bjin\u00e1ch dos\u00e1hly \u010di nedos\u00e1hly. Jejich ob\u010dan\u00e9 (dokonce ani politick\u00e9 elity) se ni\u010deho nedom\u00e1haj\u00ed, u soused\u016f si nic nen\u00e1rokuj\u00ed, netou\u017e\u00ed z\u00edskat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 \u201eztracen\u00e1\u201c \u00fazem\u00ed, nechovaj\u00ed v\u016f\u010di nikomu z\u00e1\u0161\u0165 (rusofobie je zde v\u00a0p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e um\u011ble infikov\u00e1na a existuje slu\u0161n\u00e1 nad\u011bje, \u017ee tato parazit\u00e1ln\u00ed houba v\u00a0mysl\u00edch n\u011bkter\u00fdch jedinc\u016f \u010dasem zmiz\u00ed). Tak\u017ee \u010ce\u0161i a Slov\u00e1ci jsou n\u00e1rody v\u00a0Evrop\u011b skoro v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00e9, svou povahou opravdu nekonfliktn\u00ed. \u010ce\u0161i, potomci Kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed \u010desk\u00e9ho, si dokonce nen\u00e1rokuj\u00ed ani Oboj\u00ed Lu\u017eici, ani Slezsko. (Tyto zem\u011b b\u00fdvaly docela dlouho sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Koruny.) A spolu se Slov\u00e1ky nepokukuj\u00ed \u010ce\u0161i ani po Podkarpatsk\u00e9 Rusi. Prost\u011b v\u0161e v\u00a0pohod\u011b. To nen\u00ed v\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b n\u011bjak\u00e1 v\u00fdtka. Naopak, je to znak realismu, ch\u00e1p\u00e1n\u00ed situace, akceptov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u011bjinn\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje, z\u00e1rove\u0148 tak\u00e9 symptom nekonfliktnosti obou st\u0159edoevropsk\u00fdch n\u00e1rod\u016f a v\u011bdom\u00ed, \u017ee naprost\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina v\u011bc\u00ed opravdu nestoj\u00ed za s\u00e9rie konflikt\u016f a v\u00e1lek. S\u00a0takovouto m\u00edrumilovnou mentalitou pochopiteln\u011b nemaj\u00ed oba tyto n\u00e1rody absolutn\u011b co d\u011blat ve vysoce agres\u00edvn\u00ed alianci NATO. A jak se zd\u00e1, u\u017e ani v\u00a0EU.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nic z\u00a0toho, bohu\u017eel, neplat\u00ed o Pol\u00e1c\u00edch a Ma\u010farech. Jejich d\u011bjiny jsou dobyva\u010dn\u00e9, velmocensk\u00e9, imperi\u00e1ln\u00ed. A tyto vlastnosti z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed trvalou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed mentality elit. Po cel\u00e9 d\u011bjiny novov\u011bku vedou Pol\u00e1ci v\u00e1lky s\u00a0Moskvou a pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00edm Rusk\u00fdm imp\u00e9riem. C\u00edlem t\u011bchto v\u00e1lek je dominance ve V\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b, co\u017e znamen\u00e1 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na star\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch zem\u00edch v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b Kyjevsk\u00e9 Rusi a v\u00a0Pobalt\u00ed (hlavn\u011b na Litv\u011b). Spory, konflikty, v\u00e1lky mezi ob\u011bma slovansk\u00fdmi mocnostmi trvaj\u00ed v\u00a0podstat\u011b od 16. stolet\u00ed, kdy se prosadil polsk\u00fd vliv na Litv\u011b a Pol\u00e1ci se takto dostali na p\u016fvodn\u011b rusk\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed a nel\u00edtostn\u011b jejich \u010d\u00e1sti kolonizovali. Konflikt je trval\u00fd, nevyl\u00e9\u010diteln\u00fd, pokra\u010duje i nyn\u00ed a Polsko jako \u010dlen Visegr\u00e1dsk\u00e9 skupiny z\u016fstane nad\u00e1le jedn\u00edm z\u00a0hlavn\u00edch podporovatel\u016f v\u00e1lky s\u00a0Ruskou federac\u00ed. P\u0159ipout\u00e1n\u00ed se k\u00a0Polsku obou m\u00edrumilovn\u00fdch st\u0159edoevropsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, \u010cR a Slovenska, jim nem\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st nic dobr\u00e9ho.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V\u00a0ma\u010farsk\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se mo\u017en\u00e1 nejedn\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edmo o hrozbu iniciov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010di aktivn\u00ed podpory v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 strany na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle NATO (Skandin\u00e1vie, Polsko, Pobalt\u00ed, mo\u017en\u00e1 i Rumunsko, zejm\u00e9na po spolknut\u00ed Moldavska), nicm\u00e9n\u011b nov\u00fd ma\u010farsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r, P\u00e9ter Magyar, ihned po n\u00e1stupu do funkce nazna\u010dil m\u00edstn\u00edm revizionistick\u00fdm kruh\u016fm, \u017ee si je v\u011bdom d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fazemn\u00ed velikosti Uhersk\u00e9ho kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed. Ma\u010farsk\u00e9 sny o obnov\u011b velk\u00fdch Uher zahrnuj\u00edc\u00edch Slovensko, Sedmihradsko, kus Podkarpatsk\u00e9 Rusi i \u010d\u00e1sti b\u00fdval\u00e9 Jugosl\u00e1vie, nez\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed jen v\u00a0nev\u011bdom\u00ed. Vsadil na n\u011b posledn\u00ed habsbursk\u00fd c\u00edsa\u0159, Karel I., potom tyto sny p\u0159ivedly Ma\u010fary ke spojenectv\u00ed s\u00a0Hitlerem. V\u00a0situaci, kdy se objev\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost, nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00a0procesu rozpadu EU, je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho prohlouben\u00ed krize kolem Ukrajiny, v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b otev\u0159en\u00e9 v\u00e1lky s\u00a0Ruskou federac\u00ed a podobn\u011b, mohou tyto \u201esny\u201c pros\u00e1knout z\u00a0nev\u011bdom\u00ed a sko\u010dit rovn\u00fdma nohama do politiky.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pokud vezmeme v\u00a0\u00favahu skute\u010dnou rozd\u00edlnost dvojic st\u00e1t\u016f nach\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch se uvnit\u0159 V4, pak onen vzorec nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt ve tvaru V2 + V2 = V4, ale V2 \u2013 V2 = 0. Je opravdu mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee tyto uveden\u00e9 rozpory mohou v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee se situace v\u00a0Evrop\u011b stane je\u0161t\u011b turbulentn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e jak ji k\u00a0t\u00e9to turbulenci p\u0159ivedly takzvan\u00e9 \u201eneoliber\u00e1ln\u00ed elity\u201c Z\u00e1padu, \u00fa\u010dinnost Visegr\u00e1dsk\u00e9 skupiny de facto vynulovat. P\u0159itom form\u00e1t st\u0159edoevropsk\u00e9 integrace je pro st\u00e1ty St\u0159edn\u00ed Evropy uskupen\u00edm nejv\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm a nejbezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm. Dokonce takov\u00fdm, jak\u00fd by se mohl pokusit o \u201epolitiku v\u0161ech azimut\u016f\u201c, tedy tak\u00e9 o u\u017e\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edklon ke skupin\u011b st\u00e1t\u016f BRICS+, tedy o obnoven\u00ed projektu \u00fazk\u00e9 eurasijsk\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ce, kter\u00fd c\u00edlen\u011b likviduj\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, jedno pod jak\u00fdm prezidentem.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed form\u00e1tu st\u0159edoevropsk\u00e9 integrace by z\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9ho a slovensk\u00e9ho pohledu m\u011blo sm\u011b\u0159ovat k\u00a0zem\u00edm, jak\u00e9 maj\u00ed podobnou charakteristiku jako \u010cR a Slovensko a jak\u00e9 maj\u00ed i podobnou historickou zku\u0161enost, tedy sp\u00ed\u0161e jako ob\u011bti ciz\u00ed hegemonie ne\u017e samotn\u00ed dobyvatel\u00e9. Pokud by se Slovensko a \u010cR mohly op\u0159\u00edt o tyto partnery, jejich pozice vzhledem k\u00a0Polsku, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b i Ma\u010farsku, by nemusela b\u00fdt slab\u00e1. Tak\u017ee sm\u011br integrace by m\u011bl v\u00e9st na jihov\u00fdchod, do Slovinska, Srbska, \u010cern\u00e9 Hory i do Chorvatska a Severn\u00ed Makedonie, mo\u017en\u00e1 tak\u00e9 do Bulharska. Rozpory mezi balk\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi sice existuj\u00ed a v\u00a0d\u011bjin\u00e1ch nap\u00e1chaly obrovsk\u00e9 \u0161kody, nicm\u00e9n\u011b se v\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b zd\u00e1, \u017ee jejich ost\u0159\u00ed se alespo\u0148 mezi n\u011bkter\u00fdmi otupuje.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed st\u0159edoevropsk\u00e9ho form\u00e1tu je pochopiteln\u011b tak\u00e9 Rakousko. Je centrem b\u00fdval\u00e9ho imp\u00e9ria trvaj\u00edc\u00edho p\u016fltis\u00edcilet\u00ed. Ve vlastn\u00ed imperi\u00e1ln\u00ed minulosti a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdch snech o resuscitaci ale dost mo\u017en\u00e1 probl\u00e9m Rakouska nev\u011bz\u00ed. Je n\u011bkde jinde, a sice ve vazb\u011b na N\u011bmecko. Raku\u0161an se sice uraz\u00ed, pokud jej n\u011bkdo omylem ozna\u010d\u00ed za N\u011bmce, p\u0159esto v\u00a0historick\u00fdch epoch\u00e1ch, ve kter\u00fdch se za\u010dne projevovat n\u011bjak\u00e1 forma n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho revizionismu \u010di dokonce revan\u0161ismu a militarismu, Rakousko tak n\u011bjak nedok\u00e1\u017ee odolat magnetismu a je vta\u017eeno do n\u011bmeck\u00e9 hry. Kdyby se mezi N\u011bmeckem a Rakouskem rozkl\u00e1dal Atlantick\u00fd oce\u00e1n, pak by integrace Rakouska do st\u0159edoevropsk\u00e9ho form\u00e1tu nejsp\u00ed\u0161 nep\u0159edstavovala nejmen\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m. Na rozd\u00edl od \u0160v\u00e9dska, Finska nebo \u0160v\u00fdcarska se rakousk\u00e1 pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 neutralita v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech nediskreditovala, alespo\u0148 ne \u00fapln\u011b.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Probl\u00e9mem je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b tak\u00e9 st\u0159ed b\u00fdval\u00e9 Jugosl\u00e1vie, ona historick\u00e1 Bosna a Hercegovina, jej\u00ed\u017e st\u00e1topr\u00e1vn\u00ed uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed je d\u00e1no takzvanou Daytonskou m\u00edrovou dohodou z\u00a0roku 1995, kter\u00e1 tuto historickou zemi rozd\u011bluje na Federaci Bosny a Hercegoviny (cca 51 procent \u00fazem\u00ed) a Republiku srbskou ob\u00fdvanou p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b Srby (cca 41 procent), na kterou z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u201eelity\u201c dlouhodob\u011b sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed velk\u00fd tlak ve snaze dostat tuto srbskou \u201eenkl\u00e1vu\u201c na svoji stranu. Nebo ji zlikvidovat. Takto z\u0159ejm\u011b z\u016fstane toto \u00fazem\u00ed na jist\u00fd \u010das mimo p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 integra\u010dn\u00ed snahy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tak\u017ee suma sum\u00e1rum, pokud m\u00e1 st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed Visegr\u00e1dsk\u00e1 skupina (V4) z\u016fstat ve sv\u00e9m p\u016fvodn\u00edm form\u00e1tu a b\u00fdt takto potenci\u00e1ln\u011b j\u00e1drem roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed se integrace zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 nejsou (nikdy nebyly a nikdy nebudou) sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed koloni\u00e1ln\u00edho Z\u00e1padu, potom je pro dvojici ve slo\u017een\u00ed \u010cR a Slovensko nezbytn\u00e9, aby se mohla op\u0159\u00edt o t\u011bsnou spolupr\u00e1ci s\u00a0n\u011bkolika zem\u011bmi b\u00fdval\u00e9 Jugosl\u00e1vie a mo\u017en\u00e1 i s\u00a0Bulharskem. (Ostatn\u011b, nebyla by to v\u016fbec programov\u00e1 novinka.) Vlastn\u011b by se tato integrace odv\u00edjela i ve form\u00e1tu slovansk\u00e9m, co\u017e by byl takov\u00fd hezk\u00fd citov\u00fd bonus. Z\u016fstane-li form\u00e1t V4 neroz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en o dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dleny, potom se v\u00a0n\u011bm d\u0159\u00edve \u010di pozd\u011bji (nejsp\u00ed\u0161 velice rychle) ujme dominantn\u00ed role konfliktn\u00ed Polsko, najde modus vivendi s\u00a0Ma\u010farskem a oba m\u00edrumilovn\u00e9 slovansk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty tito jejich \u201epartne\u0159i\u201c, v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b dal\u0161\u00edho krizov\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje v\u00a0Evrop\u011b, st\u00e1hnou do ne\u0161t\u011bst\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><strong><em>Ilustrace: \u013dubom\u00edr Kotrha<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/noveslovo.eu\/svet\/v4-nebo-spise-v2-plus-minus-v2\/\">Ivo \u0160ebest\u00edk<\/a><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-92795\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/sebestik.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"294\" height=\"177\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nikoliv, nenab\u00edz\u00edm zde n\u011bjakou variantu Einstenovy rovnici o relativit\u011b, t\u0159eba\u017ee se o jistou formu relativity&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":120974,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1503,122,860],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120973"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=120973"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120973\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/120974"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=120973"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=120973"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=120973"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}