{"id":120820,"date":"2026-11-10T05:16:37","date_gmt":"2026-11-10T04:16:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=120820"},"modified":"2026-11-10T05:16:37","modified_gmt":"2026-11-10T04:16:37","slug":"zavadejici-statisticka-zjisteni-tykajici-se-vakcin-proti-pasovemu-oparu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/11\/10\/zavadejici-statisticka-zjisteni-tykajici-se-vakcin-proti-pasovemu-oparu\/","title":{"rendered":"Zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed statistick\u00e1 zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se vakc\u00edn proti p\u00e1sov\u00e9mu oparu"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tato z\u00e1ludn\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka zn\u00ed: Kter\u00e9 z t\u011bchto tvrzen\u00ed je pravdiv\u00e9?<\/span><\/h3>\n<ol>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Vakc\u00edna proti p\u00e1sov\u00e9mu oparu je v prevenci p\u00e1sov\u00e9ho oparu \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1 z 90 %.<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Vakc\u00edna proti p\u00e1sov\u00e9mu oparu zabra\u0148uje vzniku p\u00e1sov\u00e9ho oparu u JEDN\u00c9 z 32 o\u010dkovan\u00fdch osob. Zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch 31 osob z n\u00ed nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd prosp\u011bch.<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Odpov\u011b\u010f: Ob\u011b tvrzen\u00ed jsou pravdiv\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">H\u00e1dejte, jak\u00e9 sd\u011blen\u00ed dominuje reklam\u011b na Shingrix, nejobl\u00edben\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vakc\u00ednu proti p\u00e1sov\u00e9mu oparu v Americe?<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">90% \u00fa\u010dinnost. 90% \u00fa\u010dinnost. 90% \u00fa\u010dinnost<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Toto je \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed reklamn\u00ed sd\u011blen\u00ed Centra pro kontrolu a prevenci nemoc\u00ed ( <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/shingles\/vaccines\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span dir=\"auto\">CDC)<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> ohledn\u011b \u00fa\u010dinnosti vakc\u00edny. Tento druh statistick\u00fdch trik\u016f je tak roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00fd, \u017ee CDC zjevn\u011b nevid\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd skute\u010dn\u00fd probl\u00e9m s t\u00edm, jak jsou tyto \u00fa\u010dinky prezentov\u00e1ny ve\u0159ejnosti. Proto\u017ee jsou tak \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9 a v podstat\u011b p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed reklamn\u00ed sd\u011blen\u00ed, je nutn\u00e9 je analyzovat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jist\u011b m\u016f\u017eeme o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee profesion\u00e1ln\u00ed zdravotn\u00ed report\u00e9\u0159i v mainstreamov\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch tato \u010d\u00edsla rozeberou a vysv\u011btl\u00ed, co znamenaj\u00ed, \u017ee?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Hmm. Ne tak docela.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Byl jsem p\u0159ekvapen, kdy\u017e jsem si \u0161el p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst, co New York Times \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed o t\u00e9to \u00fadajn\u011b 90% \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9 vakc\u00edn\u011b. Pamatujte: tento zpravodajsk\u00fd port\u00e1l n\u00e1m poskytuje <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">v\u0161echny zpr\u00e1vy, kter\u00e9 stoj\u00ed za to otisknout.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto roku otiskl den\u00edk New York Times pozoruhodn\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek o souvislostech mezi ur\u010dit\u00fdmi vakc\u00ednami a st\u00e1rnut\u00edm. Titulek zn\u011bl: \u201e <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/03\/health\/vaccines-dementia-heart-elderly.html?searchResultPosition=10\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span dir=\"auto\">Vakc\u00edny pom\u00e1haj\u00ed star\u0161\u00edm lidem v\u00edce, ne\u017e jsme si mysleli<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> .\u201c Za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 jasn\u00fdm prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm:<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">Abychom si to ujasnili. Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm d\u016fvodem k o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed proti p\u00e1sov\u00e9mu oparu je, \u017ee dv\u011b d\u00e1vky nab\u00edzej\u00ed <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/shingles\/vaccines\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span dir=\"auto\">90% ochranu<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> p\u0159ed bolestiv\u00fdm, puch\u00fd\u0159nat\u00fdm onemocn\u011bn\u00edm, kter\u00e9 postihne b\u011bhem \u017eivota t\u0159etinu Ameri\u010dan\u016f \u2013 onemocn\u011bn\u00edm, kter\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee zp\u016fsobovat p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed bolesti nerv\u016f a dal\u0161\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9 dlouhodob\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinky.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tak\u017ee si to \u0159ekn\u011bme \u201ezcela jasn\u011b\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Report\u00e9\u0159i a redakto\u0159i den\u00edku The New York Times jsou chyt\u0159\u00ed lid\u00e9, dostate\u010dn\u011b chyt\u0159\u00ed na to, aby zajistili, \u017ee jejich vypr\u00e1v\u011bn\u00ed o u\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed vakc\u00edn u star\u0161\u00edch lid\u00ed sm\u011b\u0159uje \u201espr\u00e1vn\u00fdm\u201c sm\u011brem. Je relativn\u011b snadn\u00e9 napsat v\u011brohodn\u00fd a nad\u0161en\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek chv\u00e1ly na vakc\u00ednu, kdy\u017e nemus\u00edte kriticky zkoumat \u010d\u00edsla, kter\u00e1 v\u00e1m n\u011bkdo p\u0159edkl\u00e1d\u00e1. P\u0159\u00edb\u011bh se tak vyv\u00edj\u00ed p\u0159edv\u00eddatelnou cestou, p\u0159izp\u016fsobenou tak, aby pot\u011b\u0161ila mnoho farmaceutick\u00fdch a vakc\u00ednov\u00fdch inzerent\u016f, jejich\u017e reklamy dr\u017e\u00ed The Times nad vodou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b text sleduje standardn\u00ed \u0161ablonu pro informov\u00e1n\u00ed o o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed, kterou jsme si zvykli: zveli\u010duje jeho p\u0159\u00ednosy, bagatelizuje nebo ignoruje jeho \u0161kodlivost a zd\u016fraz\u0148uje hr\u016fzu nemoci, zat\u00edmco p\u0159edst\u00edr\u00e1 jistotu a l\u00e9ka\u0159sk\u00fd konsenzus. Jak jsem ji\u017e zm\u00ednil v p\u0159edchoz\u00edm <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/brownstone.org\/articles\/ask-your-doctor-the-medias-most-dangerous-tagline\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010dl\u00e1nku na Brownstone<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> , tento druh zaujat\u00e9ho informov\u00e1n\u00ed se v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku rovn\u00e1 \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed sloganu \u201eZeptejte se sv\u00e9ho l\u00e9ka\u0159e\u201c z jedn\u00e9 z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch americk\u00fdch kazatelen k nevzd\u011blan\u00fdm mas\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/poets.org\/poem\/song-myself-52\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span dir=\"auto\">Velk\u00fd americk\u00fd b\u00e1sn\u00edk<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> Walt Whitman m\u011bl mo\u017en\u00e1 na mysli New York Times, kdy\u017e psal o tom, jak nech\u00e1v\u00e1 sv\u00e9 \u201ebarbarsk\u00e9 vyt\u00ed ozv\u011bnou po st\u0159ech\u00e1ch sv\u011bta\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Toto se t\u00fdk\u00e1 herpes zoster, b\u011b\u017en\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00e9ho jako p\u00e1sov\u00fd opar. Je zp\u016fsoben reaktivac\u00ed viru varicella zoster (VZV), co\u017e je stejn\u00fd virus, kter\u00fd zp\u016fsobuje plan\u00e9 ne\u0161tovice.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u00e1sov\u00fd opar m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00fd, ale nemus\u00ed to tak b\u00fdt v\u017edy. Obvykle se pod\u00e9l jedn\u00e9 nervov\u00e9 dr\u00e1hy objevuje brn\u011bn\u00ed, p\u00e1len\u00ed, sv\u011bd\u011bn\u00ed nebo bolest, n\u011bkdy doprov\u00e1zen\u00e1 puch\u00fd\u0159natou vyr\u00e1\u017ekou, kter\u00e1 obvykle odezn\u00ed b\u011bhem 2 a\u017e 4 t\u00fddn\u016f. Existuj\u00ed pom\u011brn\u011b \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9 a relativn\u011b levn\u00e9 antivirov\u00e9 l\u00e9ky, kter\u00e9 mohou urychlit zotaven\u00ed, pokud se u\u017eij\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u011b brzy. Z\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, pokud se p\u00e1sov\u00fd opar rozvine v p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed nervovou bolest, zn\u00e1mou jako postherpetick\u00e1 neuralgie (PHN). N\u011bkdy postihuje o\u010di, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt opravdu zl\u00e9. Na\u0161t\u011bst\u00ed je to vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 a v\u011bt\u0161ina p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f p\u00e1sov\u00e9ho oparu sama odezn\u00ed do m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Stru\u010dn\u00e1 a nez\u00e1visl\u00e1 anal\u00fdza <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rxfiles.ca\/rxfiles\/uploads\/documents\/Shingrix_QandA.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span dir=\"auto\">randomizovan\u00fdch studi\u00ed<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> hlavn\u00edch vakc\u00edn proti p\u00e1sov\u00e9mu oparu poskytuje jedine\u010dnou p\u0159\u00edpadovou studii o tom, jak mohou profesion\u00e1ln\u00ed report\u00e9\u0159i New York Times zkreslovat skute\u010dnou v\u011bdu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Odkud tedy poch\u00e1z\u00ed tvrzen\u00ed \u201e90% \u00fa\u010dinnost\u201c?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kdykoli vid\u00edte tak velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo, v\u00edte, \u017ee je to \u010d\u00edslo relativn\u00ed. Zapome\u0148te na to a za\u010dn\u011bte znovu, v\u017edycky \u0159\u00edk\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Relativn\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed rizika, jako je \u201e90% \u00fa\u010dinnost\u201c, jsou marketingov\u00e9 slogany a zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed popis toho, co m\u016f\u017ee jednotliv\u00fd p\u0159\u00edjemce l\u00e9ku nebo vakc\u00edny o\u010dek\u00e1vat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Takto lid\u00e9 ch\u00e1pou slova <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u201e90% \u00fa\u010dinnost\u201c:<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> Pokud bude o\u010dkov\u00e1no 100 lid\u00ed, bude o 90 p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e ve skupin\u011b 100 lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed nebudou o\u010dkov\u00e1ni. Takhle v\u011bt\u0161ina lid\u00ed toto sd\u011blen\u00ed pochop\u00ed. A pokud v\u00e1m hroz\u00ed bolestiv\u00e1 puch\u00fd\u0159ovit\u00e1 vyr\u00e1\u017eka, mo\u017en\u00e1 si \u0159eknete: Pro\u010d ne?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud si chcete n\u011bco koupit za 100 dolar\u016f a je tam cedule s n\u00e1pisem \u201e90% sleva\u201c, kolik zaplat\u00edte? Deset dolar\u016f, \u017ee? Takhle to nefunguje, kdy\u017e se popisuj\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinky l\u00e9k\u016f nebo vakc\u00edn.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edslo 90 % ozna\u010duje proporcion\u00e1ln\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed po\u010dtu p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f onemocn\u011bn\u00ed u o\u010dkovan\u00fdch osob ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s neo\u010dkovan\u00fdmi osobami b\u011bhem studie. Toto velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo obvykle zakr\u00fdv\u00e1 z\u00e1sadn\u00ed fakt, \u017ee <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">z\u00e1kladn\u00ed riziko je v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e9.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ve <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rxfiles.ca\/rxfiles\/uploads\/documents\/Shingrix_QandA.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span dir=\"auto\">dvou rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch studi\u00edch s vakc\u00ednou Shingrix<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> , z nich\u017e jedna zahrnovala pacienty ve v\u011bku 50 let a star\u0161\u00ed a druh\u00e1 70 let a star\u0161\u00ed, se p\u00e1sov\u00fd opar vyskytl u 3,4 % pacient\u016f ve skupin\u011b s placebem b\u011bhem 3,5let\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed. Ve skupin\u011b l\u00e9\u010den\u00e9 vakc\u00ednou Shingrix byla incidence 0,3 %. Studie zahrnovala v\u00edce ne\u017e 16 000 pacient\u016f, co\u017e je dostate\u010dn\u011b velk\u00e1 kohorta k vyvozen\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00fdch z\u00e1v\u011br\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tak\u017ee pokud <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">klesnete z 3,4 % na 0,3 %, je to \u201epokles o 90 %\u201c<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> , \u017ee?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jin\u00fdmi slovy: Pokud byste m\u011bli v kapse 3,40 dolaru a lupi\u010d by v\u00e1m ukradl 90 % z nich, co by v\u00e1m zbylo? P\u0159esn\u011b 30 cent\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud byste sv\u00fdm p\u0159\u00e1tel\u016fm \u0159ekli: \u201eLupi\u010di mi ukradli 90 % pen\u011bz!\u201c, usoudili by, \u017ee te\u010f skon\u010d\u00edte v chudobinci, proto\u017ee jste pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159i\u0161li o tis\u00edce dolar\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To nen\u00ed pravda: Ztratili jen 3,10 dolaru. Sotva v\u00edc ne\u017e drobn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b vakc\u00edny je rozd\u00edl mezi t\u011bmi, kte\u0159\u00ed byli o\u010dkov\u00e1ni vakc\u00ednou Shingrix, a t\u011bmi, kte\u0159\u00ed dostali placebo, 3,1 % (po ode\u010dten\u00ed obou hodnot od sebe).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159esn\u011bji \u0159e\u010deno: Pokud o\u010dkujete 100 lid\u00ed b\u011bhem t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u010dty\u0159 let, m\u016f\u017eete zabr\u00e1nit p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 3 p\u0159\u00edpad\u016fm p\u00e1sov\u00e9ho oparu. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee k prevenci jednoho p\u0159\u00edpadu p\u00e1sov\u00e9ho oparu b\u011bhem t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u010dty\u0159 let by muselo b\u00fdt vakc\u00ednou Shingrix o\u010dkov\u00e1no 32 lid\u00ed. Tento term\u00edn, NNV neboli \u201epo\u010det pot\u0159ebn\u00fdch k o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c, je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd pro lep\u0161\u00ed posouzen\u00ed, zda by pro v\u00e1s o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed mohlo b\u00fdt u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9. Va\u0161e \u0161ance na prosp\u011bch je jedna ku 32.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">K t\u011bmto \u010d\u00edsl\u016fm existuje <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">jedna z\u00e1sadn\u00ed v\u00fdhrada<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> : P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me, \u017ee tato data byla shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bna bez podvodu, zkreslov\u00e1n\u00ed nebo vym\u00fd\u0161len\u00ed. Pokud v\u00edm, v souvislosti s klinick\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem vakc\u00edny Shingrix nebyly hl\u00e1\u0161eny \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady podvodu, zkreslov\u00e1n\u00ed ani nez\u00e1konn\u00e9 \u010dinnosti, a\u010dkoli spole\u010dnost, kter\u00e1 vakc\u00ednu vyr\u00e1b\u00ed a studuje, se v minulosti setkala s porovn\u00e1n\u00edmi v p\u0159\u00edpadech podvod\u016f ve zdravotnictv\u00ed t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00edch se jin\u00fdch l\u00e9k\u016f. Jen tak mimochodem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tak\u017ee se vra\u0165me k <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u201e90% \u00fa\u010dinnosti\u201c.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Na takov\u00e9 hry s \u010d\u00edsly reaguji pom\u011brn\u011b siln\u011b, proto\u017ee pokud se nezm\u00edn\u00ed po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed riziko, <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u201e90% \u00fa\u010dinnost\u201c<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> v podstat\u011b \u00fa\u010dinnost vakc\u00edny zveli\u010duje. Tento trik jsme u\u017e vid\u011bli u vakc\u00edn proti Covidu: V\u00fdrobci a CDC je prohl\u00e1sili za \u201e95% \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9\u201c, p\u0159esto\u017ee absolutn\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost utrpen\u00ed \u00fajmy zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 Covidem byla astronomicky n\u00edzk\u00e1. A proto byl i absolutn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ednos mRNA vakc\u00edn velmi mal\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To n\u00e1s p\u0159iv\u00e1d\u00ed k druh\u00e9mu probl\u00e9mu s takov\u00fdmi daty: p\u0159eh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00ed po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edho rizika. R\u00e1d bych se v\u00e1s na to zeptal:<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Jak\u00e9 je celo\u017eivotn\u00ed riziko \u00famrt\u00ed pro pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho Ameri\u010dana?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Je to 100%. Je mi l\u00edto, \u017ee v\u00e1m mus\u00edm sd\u011blit tuto \u0161patnou zpr\u00e1vu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Toto \u010d\u00edslo se v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, vezmeme-li v \u00favahu ro\u010dn\u00ed riziko \u00famrt\u00ed. Mohou existovat l\u00e9ky, vakc\u00edny nebo chirurgick\u00e9 z\u00e1kroky, kter\u00e9 tento nevyhnuteln\u00fd v\u00fdsledek odd\u00e1l\u00ed, ale nic nikdy nesn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed va\u0161e celo\u017eivotn\u00ed riziko \u00famrt\u00ed na nulu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Va\u0161e celo\u017eivotn\u00ed riziko bude v\u017edy 100 %.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">M\u011bjme tuto skute\u010dnost na pam\u011bti, kdy\u017e \u0159\u00edk\u00e1me, \u017ee <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">jedna <\/span><\/strong><strong><span dir=\"auto\">t\u0159etina <\/span><\/strong><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Ameri\u010dan\u016f onemocn\u00ed p\u00e1sov\u00fdm oparem v ur\u010dit\u00e9m okam\u017eiku <\/span><\/strong><strong><span dir=\"auto\">sv\u00e9ho \u017eivota<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> . Toto \u010d\u00edslo je zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed, proto\u017ee opom\u00edj\u00ed odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011br: dv\u011b t\u0159etiny (tj. 66 %) Ameri\u010dan\u016f p\u00e1sov\u00fdm oparem nikdy v \u017eivot\u011b neonemocn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jde o to, zda sklenici vn\u00edmat jako z poloviny plnou nebo z poloviny pr\u00e1zdnou. <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eRiziko jedn\u00e9 t\u0159etiny \u017eivota\u201c<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> tak\u00e9 zveli\u010duje va\u0161e <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">ro\u010dn\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> riziko. Pro pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho Ameri\u010dana nad 50 let se <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">riziko vzniku p\u00e1sov\u00e9ho oparu v dan\u00e9m roce pohybuje mezi 0,3 a 1 %.<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> Ve vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm v\u011bku je o n\u011bco vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, ale v absolutn\u00edch \u010d\u00edslech ne o mnoho.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jin\u00fdmi slovy:<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u201ePopul\u00e1rn\u00ed generace a \u010dlenov\u00e9 generace X, vezm\u011bte na v\u011bdom\u00ed: V dan\u00e9m roce <\/span><\/strong><strong><span dir=\"auto\">je pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee p\u00e1sov\u00fd opar NEDOSTANETE, p\u0159es 99 %.\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Chv\u00edli se nad t\u00edm zamyslete<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud pat\u0159\u00edte k t\u011bm, kte\u0159\u00ed v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee s\u00e1zen\u00ed na velkou v\u00fdhru v Las Vegas nebo n\u00e1kup loterijn\u00edch l\u00edstk\u016f je dobrou strategi\u00ed pro financov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fchodu, \u0159ekl bych, \u017ee byste se m\u011bli nau\u010dit l\u00e9pe rozum\u011bt pravd\u011bpodobnostem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nezlobte se; v\u011bt\u0161ina lid\u00ed nep\u0159em\u00fd\u0161l\u00ed v pravd\u011bpodobnostech a kupodivu o pravd\u011bpodobnostech nemluv\u00ed ani tehdy, kdy\u017e jde o jejich zdrav\u00ed. V\u011bt\u0161ina lid\u00ed si z\u0159ejm\u011b mysl\u00ed: \u201eMoje matka m\u011bla p\u00e1sov\u00fd opar a bylo to opravdu zl\u00e9. Tak\u017ee je mi jedno, jestli mi vakc\u00edna d\u00e1 \u0161anci \u201av\u00fdhry\u2018 1:32.\u201c Dob\u0159e. Ho\u010fte kostkou a doufejte v to nejlep\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ohledn\u011b ceny t\u011bchto vakc\u00edn: nejsou levn\u00e9 a nikdy nejsou \u201ezdarma\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud v\u00edm, vakc\u00edny nikdy nejsou \u201ezdarma\u201c. V\u017edycky je n\u011bkdo zaplat\u00ed. Pen\u00edze poch\u00e1zej\u00ed z kapes pacient\u016f, ze zdravotn\u00edho poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed jejich zam\u011bstnavatele nebo z vl\u00e1dn\u00edch fond\u016f. Skute\u010dn\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka zn\u00ed: Stoj\u00ed to nakonec za to?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Shr\u0148me si to:<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">P\u00e1sov\u00fd opar a vakc\u00edny proti p\u00e1sov\u00e9mu oparu v \u010d\u00edslech:<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">0,3 a\u017e 1 %:<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> Ro\u010dn\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee se u pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho Ameri\u010dana nad 50 let objev\u00ed p\u00e1sov\u00fd opar. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">se u n\u011bj p\u00e1sov\u00fd opar NEVYVZNIKNE,<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> je ka\u017ed\u00fd rok v\u00edce ne\u017e 99 %. S v\u011bkem se m\u00edrn\u011b zvy\u0161uje, ale ne v\u00fdznamn\u011b.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">32:<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> Po\u010det osob star\u0161\u00edch 50 let, kter\u00e9 pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed b\u00fdt o\u010dkov\u00e1ny vakc\u00ednou Shingrix, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">JEDN\u00c9MU<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> p\u0159\u00edpadu p\u00e1sov\u00e9ho oparu (za v\u00edce ne\u017e 3,5 roku). Toto NNV neboli \u201epo\u010det osob pot\u0159ebn\u00fdch k o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c znamen\u00e1, \u017ee <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">vakc\u00edna je ne\u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1 u 31 z 32 o\u010dkovan\u00fdch jedinc\u016f.<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">333:<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> Po\u010det osob star\u0161\u00edch 50 let, kter\u00e9 pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed b\u00fdt o\u010dkov\u00e1ny vakc\u00ednou Shingrix, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">JEDNOM<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> p\u0159\u00edpadu <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">postherpetick\u00e9 neuralgie<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> (332 nezabr\u00e1n\u00ed ani jednomu p\u0159\u00edpadu PHN \u2013 proto\u017ee jej\u00ed v\u00fdskyt byl od za\u010d\u00e1tku extr\u00e9mn\u011b nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">11 a\u017e 25:<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> Po\u010det osob star\u0161\u00edch 50 let, kter\u00e9 dostanou vakc\u00ednu a u kter\u00fdch se u nich projev\u00ed <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">JEDEN<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> p\u0159\u00edpad syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 reakce (mezi \u00fa\u010dinky pat\u0159\u00ed \u00fanava, slabost, bolest hlavy, zimnice a \u017ealude\u010dn\u00ed pot\u00ed\u017ee). Toto \u010d\u00edslo je zn\u00e1m\u00e9 jako <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">NNH neboli \u201eNumber Needed to Harm\u201c (po\u010det<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> osob pot\u0159ebn\u00fdch k po\u0161kozen\u00ed) . Jin\u00fdmi slovy, tyto ne\u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinky se projev\u00ed u jedn\u00e9 z 11 a\u017e jedn\u00e9 z 25 o\u010dkovan\u00fdch osob a mohou b\u00fdt n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed invalidn\u00ed. Existuje m\u00edrn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 riziko vzniku Guillain-Barr\u00e9ova syndromu (GBS), co\u017e je vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 neurologick\u00e9 onemocn\u011bn\u00ed, p\u0159i kter\u00e9m imunitn\u00ed syst\u00e9m omylem napad\u00e1 perifern\u00ed nervov\u00fd syst\u00e9m.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">400 dolar\u016f:<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 cena, kterou by n\u011bkdo v USA bez poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed zaplatil za dvoud\u00e1vkovou vakc\u00ednu Shingrix, pod\u00e1vanou s odstupem dvou a\u017e \u0161esti m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. Medicare, Medicaid a soukrom\u00e9 zdravotn\u00ed poji\u0161\u0165ovny poskytovan\u00e9 zam\u011bstnavatelem by samoz\u0159ejm\u011b zaplatily m\u00e9n\u011b.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">12 800 USD:<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> Celkov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed proti p\u00e1sov\u00e9mu oparu k prevenci JEDN\u00c9HO p\u0159\u00edpadu p\u00e1sov\u00e9ho oparu u osob star\u0161\u00edch 50 let (star\u0161\u00edch 3,5 let). 32 kr\u00e1t 400 USD.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">132 800 USD:<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> Celkov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed proti p\u00e1sov\u00e9mu oparu k prevenci JEDN\u00c9HO p\u0159\u00edpadu PHN u osob star\u0161\u00edch 50 let (za v\u00edce ne\u017e 3 roky). 332 kr\u00e1t 400 USD.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">125,5 milionu:<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> Po\u010det americk\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f star\u0161\u00edch 50 let (p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 36 % populace USA)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">1,6 bilionu dolar\u016f:<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> N\u00e1klady na o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00e9ho Ameri\u010dana star\u0161\u00edho 50 let vakc\u00ednou proti p\u00e1sov\u00e9mu oparu (za cenu pro nepoji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 osoby).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Douf\u00e1m, \u017ee se v\u00e1m m\u016fj v\u00fdpo\u010det bude da\u0159it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Poskytnut\u00ed \u201ebezplatn\u00e9\u201c vakc\u00edny proti p\u00e1sov\u00e9mu oparu ka\u017ed\u00e9mu Ameri\u010danovi star\u0161\u00edmu 50 let by mohlo spot\u0159ebitele, program Medicare Part D, soukrom\u00e9 zam\u011bstnavatelsk\u00e9 poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed v USA a program Medicaid st\u00e1t 1,5 bilionu dolar\u016f, pokud by se nechali o\u010dkovat v\u0161ichni.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pamatujte: Pro 99 % populace je to onemocn\u011bn\u00ed, kter\u00e9 <\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">se v dan\u00e9m roce nikdy nevyskytne,<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\"> zat\u00edmco nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9 vedlej\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinky vakc\u00edny jsou mnohem pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 komplikace p\u00e1sov\u00e9ho oparu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nikdy nebudeme m\u00edt cenov\u011b dostupnou zdravotn\u00ed p\u00e9\u010di, pokud se takov\u00e9 velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1stky pen\u011bz utr\u00e1cej\u00ed za drobn\u00e9 probl\u00e9my.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Publikov\u00e1no pod <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span dir=\"auto\">mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed licenc\u00ed Creative Commons Attribution 4.0<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159i p\u0159etisku pros\u00edm uve\u010fte kanonick\u00fd odkaz na p\u016fvodn\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek a autora <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/brownstone.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span dir=\"auto\">z Brownstone Institute .<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/brownstone.org\/articles\/statistical-bamboozlement-with-shingles-vaccines\/\">Alan Cassels<\/a><\/h4>\n<p><em>Alan Cassels je \u010dlenem Brownstone College, v\u00fdzkumn\u00edkem v oblasti drogov\u00e9 politiky a autorem. Rozs\u00e1hle p\u00ed\u0161e o \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed nemoc\u00ed a je autorem \u010dty\u0159 knih, v\u010detn\u011b knihy *The ABC of Disease Mongering: An Epidemic in 26 Letters*.<\/em><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/media.brownstone.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Alan-Cassels-Headshot.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"216\" height=\"216\" \/><\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tato z\u00e1ludn\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka zn\u00ed: Kter\u00e9 z t\u011bchto tvrzen\u00ed je pravdiv\u00e9? Vakc\u00edna proti p\u00e1sov\u00e9mu oparu je&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":120821,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,9781,3604,651],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120820"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=120820"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120820\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/120821"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=120820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=120820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=120820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}