{"id":120813,"date":"2026-11-10T04:56:55","date_gmt":"2026-11-10T03:56:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=120813"},"modified":"2026-11-10T04:56:55","modified_gmt":"2026-11-10T03:56:55","slug":"krize-v-preprave-z-jemenu-do-afriky-geopoliticky-dominovy-efekt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/11\/10\/krize-v-preprave-z-jemenu-do-afriky-geopoliticky-dominovy-efekt\/","title":{"rendered":"Krize v p\u0159eprav\u011b z Jemenu do Afriky: geopolitick\u00fd dominov\u00fd efekt?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Postup H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f pobl\u00ed\u017e Bab el-Mandebu hroz\u00ed spojen\u00edm v\u00e1lky v Jemenu s roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed se kriz\u00ed v oblasti Africk\u00e9ho rohu. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Hormuzsk\u00e1 oblast je ji\u017e naru\u0161ena, mohla by druh\u00e1 krize v \u00fazk\u00e9m n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edm bod\u011b ot\u0159\u00e1st sv\u011btov\u00fdm obchodem.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k obnoven\u00e9 v\u00e1lce v Jemenu by riziko jej\u00edho zasa\u017een\u00ed oblasti Africk\u00e9ho rohu mohlo v\u00e9st k ni\u010div\u00fdm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016fm pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed obchod. Nap\u011bt\u00ed kolem Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu je dostate\u010dn\u011b v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 a jak\u00e1koli dal\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed krize by jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed mohla p\u0159ij\u00edt v hor\u0161\u00ed dobu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdzkumn\u00edk z Karlovy univerzity v Praze Ronan Wordsworth <\/span>poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1<\/span><\/a> , \u017ee s\u00edly H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f ji\u017e <\/span>dobyly<\/span><\/a> jemensk\u00fd ostrov Perim, strategicky d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 m\u00edsto v <\/span>\u00fa\u017ein\u011b Bab el-Mandeb<\/span><\/a> \u2013 Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie a rebelov\u00e9 mezit\u00edm stup\u0148uj\u00ed <\/span>p\u0159est\u0159elky<\/span><\/a> .<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto boje ohro\u017euj\u00ed lodn\u00ed dopravu <\/span>pobl\u00ed\u017e D\u017eibutska<\/span><\/a> na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e, co\u017e je konfliktem zm\u00edtan\u00fd region, kde r\u016fzn\u00e9 africk\u00e9 zem\u011b, jak to vyjad\u0159uje Wordsworth, \u010del\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b vlastn\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak\u00e1koli dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed kontrola H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f nad Perimem by mohla pos\u00edlit schopnost skupiny d\u00e1le naru\u0161ovat lodn\u00ed dopravu – i kdy\u017e kontrola ostrova nutn\u011b neznamen\u00e1 plnou kontrolu nad samotn\u00fdm pr\u016flivem.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fsledky sahaj\u00ed daleko za hranice Jemenu. Africk\u00fd roh je ji\u017e nebezpe\u010dn\u011b nestabiln\u00ed \u2013 Etiopie a Eritrea se st\u0159et\u00e1vaj\u00ed, S\u00fad\u00e1n je zdecimov\u00e1n ob\u010danskou v\u00e1lkou a region\u00e1ln\u00ed a velmoci soupe\u0159\u00ed o vliv.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak jsem ned\u00e1vno <\/span>psal<\/span><\/a> , konflikt mezi Etiopi\u00ed a Eritreou by mohl zat\u00e1hnout Egypt a zem\u011b Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu \u2013 a t\u00edm propojit tyto \u00fazemn\u00ed spory, stejn\u011b jako hydropolitiku Nilu a rivalitu Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e. Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj v Jemenu tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce znepokojuje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Michelle Gavinov\u00e1 z Rady pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vztahy podobn\u011b <\/span>varovala<\/span><\/a> p\u0159ed rizikem \u201ezapleten\u00fdch konflikt\u016f\u201c na obou stran\u00e1ch Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e, kde se \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed nestabilita, zat\u00edmco Washington vys\u00edl\u00e1 \u201esm\u00ed\u0161en\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly\u201c. Jej\u00edm hlavn\u00edm argumentem je, \u017ee tyto krize jednodu\u0161e nelze \u0159e\u0161it odd\u011blen\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 si p\u0159ipomeneme, \u017ee militarizace tohoto regionu ve skute\u010dnosti p\u0159edch\u00e1z\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 eskalaci. Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty nap\u0159\u00edklad <\/span>v roce 2016<\/span><\/a> zavedly vojenskou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v Eritreji a sledovaly strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy v Somalilandu a na jemensk\u00e9m <\/span>ostrov\u011b Sokotra<\/span><\/a> . D\u017eibutsko mezit\u00edm host\u00ed <\/span>n\u011bkolik zahrani\u010dn\u00edch vojensk\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed<\/span><\/a> . Dohoda o normalizaci vztah\u016f mezi Izraelem a SAE z roku 2020 <\/span>dodala<\/span><\/a> t\u00e9to sout\u011b\u017ei dal\u0161\u00ed rozm\u011br.<\/span><\/p>\n

Situace se mo\u017en\u00e1 podob\u00e1 tomu, co v\u011bdci Barry Buzan a Ole Waever popisuj\u00ed v \u201eTeorii region\u00e1ln\u00edho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho komplexu\u201c: zjednodu\u0161en\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, sousedn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed probl\u00e9my se natolik propojuj\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00fdvoj v jedn\u00e9 zemi ovliv\u0148uje ostatn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e tak st\u00e1le v\u00edce funguje jako jak\u00e9si rozhran\u00ed mezi bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00edmi a africk\u00fdmi konflikty a d\u016fsledky jsou ji\u017e viditeln\u00e9. Jak ned\u00e1vno zd\u016fraznila <\/span>zpr\u00e1va RFI, v\u00e1lka s H\u00fat\u00edy by mohla d\u00e1le zat\u00e1hnout Izrael a Turecko do hry soupe\u0159en\u00ed v Africk\u00e9m rohu.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm Etiopie sama hled\u00e1 spolehliv\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k mo\u0159i a strategick\u00e1 poloha Eritreje \u010din\u00ed africk\u00e9 pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b zraniteln\u00fdm. Krom\u011b toho eskaluj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lka v Jemenu tak\u00e9 odhaluje limity sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Experti z Chatham House, Sanam Vakil a Farea Al-Muslimi, <\/span>tvrd\u00ed<\/span><\/a> , \u017ee zem\u011b Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu by pot\u0159ebovaly koordinovan\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup a d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00e9 jemensk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 urovn\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 co\u017e mimochodem nen\u00ed jednoduch\u00fd \u00fakol. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by dal\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 kampa\u0148 sama o sob\u011b vy\u0159e\u0161ila z\u00e1kladn\u00ed konflikt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Role Washingtonu si v t\u00e9to situaci zaslou\u017e\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00e9 zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed. Holou realitou je, \u017ee po sob\u011b jdouc\u00ed americk\u00e9 administrativy umo\u017enily izraelsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 kampan\u011b a agresivn\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed ambice \u2013 a t\u00edm pomohly p\u0159i\u017eivit \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed eskalaci z Gazy do Jemenu a \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u016fv konfronta\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k Teher\u00e1nu situaci jen zhor\u0161il. Nen\u00ed tedy divu, \u017ee H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji prezentuj\u00ed sv\u00e9 operace jako sou\u010d\u00e1st \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho boje proti Izraeli a jeho americk\u00fdm podporovatel\u016fm. Aby bylo jasno, to nutn\u011b neznamen\u00e1 legitimizaci \u00fatok\u016f na obchodn\u00ed plavidla podle mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va; jde o to, \u017ee ignorov\u00e1n\u00ed jejich politick\u00e9ho kontextu m\u00edrn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno zt\u011b\u017euje urovn\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hussein Aboubakr Mansour, <\/span>p\u00ed\u0161\u00edc\u00ed pro Middle East Forum<\/span><\/a> , varuje, \u017ee spolupr\u00e1ce H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f se som\u00e1lskou skupinou a\u0161-\u0160ab\u00e1b by mohla vytvo\u0159it p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165 pro zbran\u011b, drony a sledov\u00e1n\u00ed. Jeho varov\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed \u201ezmocn\u011bnci\u201c nyn\u00ed maj\u00ed \u201esv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed zmocn\u011bnce\u201c, ilustruje p\u016fsoben\u00ed takov\u00fdch \u201ezmocn\u011bnc\u016f\u201c \u2013 a jak by konflikt mohl z\u00edskat nov\u00fd africk\u00fd rozm\u011br.<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b vojensk\u00e9ho a humanit\u00e1rn\u00edho hlediska m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm glob\u00e1ln\u00edm nebezpe\u010d\u00edm nakonec ekonomick\u00e9. B\u00e1b el-Mandeb koneckonc\u016f spojuje Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e s Adensk\u00fdm z\u00e1livem a d\u00e1le s Indick\u00fdm oce\u00e1nem, co\u017e z n\u011bj \u010din\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eitou vstupn\u00ed br\u00e1nu do <\/span>Suezsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fplavu<\/span><\/a> \u2013 zat\u00edmco Hormuzsk\u00fd z\u00e1liv je <\/span>\u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd<\/span><\/a> pro v\u00fdvoz energie z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 ot\u0159esy by donutily p\u0159epravn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti p\u0159ehodnotit trasy a d\u00e1le by zv\u00fd\u0161ily n\u00e1klady na poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, co\u017e by ovlivnilo dod\u00e1vky energie, potravin a pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve jsem <\/span>se vyj\u00e1d\u0159il<\/span><\/a> k tomu, jak by Hormuzsk\u00e1 krize mohla zm\u011bnit podobu n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed konkurence v Indick\u00e9m oce\u00e1nu a dos\u00e1hnout a\u017e do Malaky. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee vojenskou konfrontac\u00ed <\/span>je posti\u017eeno i \u010cern\u00e9 mo\u0159e<\/span><\/a> , by dlouhodob\u00e1 patov\u00e1 situace v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i d\u00e1le naru\u0161ila n\u011bkolik hlavn\u00edch obchodn\u00edch koridor\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kumulativn\u00ed dominov\u00fd efekt, tak\u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc, by mohl b\u00fdt zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na pro rozvojov\u00e9 zem\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na dovozu. Pokud by se dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed uzliny staly boji\u0161t\u011bm, mohlo by to spustit \u0159et\u011bzovou reakci v glob\u00e1ln\u00ed navigaci, energetick\u00fdch trz\u00edch a potravinov\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sv\u011btov\u00e1 ekonomika se tak m\u016f\u017ee ocitnout v situaci, kdy bude platit cenu za selh\u00e1n\u00ed Washingtonu v potla\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed konflikt\u016f, kter\u00e9 jeho vlastn\u00ed politika pomohla p\u0159i\u017eivit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Postup H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f pobl\u00ed\u017e Bab el-Mandebu hroz\u00ed spojen\u00edm v\u00e1lky v Jemenu s roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed se kriz\u00ed v…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":120814,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[9042,38,1400,11619],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120813"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=120813"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120813\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/120814"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=120813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=120813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=120813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}