{"id":12045,"date":"2022-07-03T01:06:28","date_gmt":"2022-07-02T23:06:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=12045"},"modified":"2022-07-02T18:58:30","modified_gmt":"2022-07-02T16:58:30","slug":"pokus-o-prognozu-kde-se-zastavi-ruska-armada-na-ukrajine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/07\/03\/pokus-o-prognozu-kde-se-zastavi-ruska-armada-na-ukrajine\/","title":{"rendered":"Pokus o progn\u00f3zu: kde se zastav\u00ed rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da na Ukrajin\u011b?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Jak\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 c\u00edle na Ukrajin\u011b bude Rusko sledovat po skon\u010den\u00ed operace na Donbasu?\u00a0Odborn\u00edci na z\u00e1pad\u011b a na v\u00fdchod\u011b se v tomto rozch\u00e1zej\u00ed.\u00a0Pro rusk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho novin\u00e1\u0159e ot\u00e1zka nezn\u00ed \u201ejestli\u201c, ale \u201ekdy\u201c.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jak se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed por\u00e1\u017eka nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed skupiny ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil na Donbasu, je v posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji kladena ot\u00e1zka: co bude d\u00e1l?\u00a0Jak a jak\u00fd bude dal\u0161\u00ed postup rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy a donbask\u00fdch milic\u00ed? Navzdory nep\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00ed \u2013 a z dobr\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu \u2013 mohou b\u00fdt n\u011bkter\u00e9 c\u00edle budouc\u00edch \u00fader\u016f dob\u0159e p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Jednou z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1had t\u011bchto dn\u016f je, pro\u010d Kyjev m\u00edsto stahov\u00e1n\u00ed voj\u00e1k\u016f z oblasti Slavjanska a Kramatorsku opakuje \u201ep\u00e1d Mariupolu\u201c a dopl\u0148uje sv\u00e9 seskupen\u00ed na Donbasu o nov\u00e9 jednotky. \u0158e\u0161en\u00ed le\u017e\u00ed mnohem v\u00edce v oblasti zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky ne\u017e v arm\u00e1d\u011b.<\/p>\n

Kyjev o\u010dividn\u011b c\u00edt\u00ed, \u017ee udr\u017een\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 frontov\u00e9 linie (i za cenu t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t) je nezbytn\u00e9, aby z\u00edskal \u010das pro vytvo\u0159en\u00ed nov\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy, pln\u011b vybaven\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi dod\u00e1van\u00fdmi ze Z\u00e1padu.<\/p>\n

Proto se bitvy o aglomeraci Slavjansk-Kramatorsk mohly t\u00e1hnout na pozad\u00ed n\u011bkolika \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch pr\u016flom\u016f v p\u0159ilehl\u00fdch sektorech fronty (Zolotoje, Avd\u011bjevka).\u00a0D\u0159\u00edve nebo pozd\u011bji v\u0161ak bude toto uskupen\u00ed zni\u010deno.\u00a0V tuto chv\u00edli vyvst\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edslove\u010dn\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka: co te\u010f?\u00a0Mo\u017enost\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v\u00edce.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operace na Ukrajin\u011b je eliminovat ve\u0161ker\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 hrozby v\u016f\u010di Don\u011bck\u00e9 (DPR) a Luhansk\u00e9 lidov\u00e9 republice (LPR) a rusk\u00fdm ob\u010dan\u016fm \u017eij\u00edc\u00edm v t\u00e9to oblasti b\u00fdval\u00e9 Ukrajiny.\u00a0Dal\u0161\u00edm takov\u00fdm c\u00edlem je zn\u00e1m\u00e1 denacifikace.\u00a0Co to znamen\u00e1 v sou\u010dasn\u00e9m kontextu?<\/p>\n

Aby Rusko chr\u00e1nilo civiln\u00ed obyvatelstvo na Donbasu a chr\u00e1nilo sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy, mus\u00ed b\u00fdt Ukrajina zbavena v\u0161ech \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, d\u011blost\u0159electva, raketomet\u016f, letadel a n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva.\u00a0Ta \u010d\u00e1st t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 techniky, kter\u00e1 nen\u00ed zni\u010dena, mus\u00ed b\u00fdt evidov\u00e1na a kontrolov\u00e1na.\u00a0V budoucnu by Ukrajin\u011b m\u011blo b\u00fdt zak\u00e1z\u00e1no p\u0159ij\u00edmat z\u00e1padn\u00ed zbran\u011b, p\u0159ezbrojovat jin\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem a udr\u017eovat arzen\u00e1l \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Za eliminaci ohro\u017een\u00ed DLR a LLR, stejn\u011b jako Ukrajinc\u016f, Rus\u016f a rusky mluv\u00edc\u00edch v jin\u00fdch regionech t\u00e9to zem\u011b, lze pova\u017eovat pouze fyzickou likvidaci \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.\u00a0V d\u016fsledku toho samotn\u00e9 zni\u010den\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil v Donbasu nesta\u010d\u00ed, mus\u00ed n\u00e1sledovat nov\u00e9 \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 operace.<\/p>\n

A sm\u011br t\u011bchto operac\u00ed ji\u017e nesm\u00ed b\u00fdt ur\u010dov\u00e1n \u010dist\u011b vojensk\u00fdmi ohledy, ale mus\u00ed b\u00fdt ur\u010dov\u00e1n politick\u00fdmi a spole\u010densk\u00fdmi ohledy.\u00a0Denacifikace v nej\u0161ir\u0161\u00edm slova smyslu nem\u016f\u017ee znamenat pouze likvidaci ozbrojen\u00fdch neonacistick\u00fdch skupin a ideologie samotn\u00e9.\u00a0Znamen\u00e1 to tak\u00e9, \u017ee rusky mluv\u00edc\u00ed obyvatelstvo a historick\u00e9 oblasti Novorossiya (Novorussia) a Malorossiya (Mal\u00e9 Rusko) mus\u00ed b\u00fdt chr\u00e1n\u011bny.\u00a0Ochrana rusk\u00e9 kultury, rusk\u00e9 identity jako takov\u00e9 na Ukrajin\u011b je z\u00e1sadn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

A to i p\u0159esto, \u017ee prim\u00e1rn\u00edm c\u00edlem rusk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil jsou v sou\u010dasnosti lidnat\u00e9 uzly souvisej\u00edc\u00ed s dopravou, t\u00fdlovou podporou a logistikou.\u00a0To je vedlej\u0161\u00ed efekt strategie tvorby kotle.\u00a0Je st\u00e1le t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 \u0159\u00edci, jak autonomn\u00ed jsou takov\u00e1 opera\u010dn\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed bez taktick\u00e9ho obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 skupiny.<\/p>\n

Existuje v\u0161ak n\u00e1zor, \u017ee obsazen\u00ed logisticky z\u00e1sadn\u00edch velk\u00fdch popula\u010dn\u00edch center bude nutn\u00e9 vzhledem k rostouc\u00edmu v\u00fdznamu z\u00e1padn\u00edch dod\u00e1vek vybaven\u00ed a zbran\u00ed na Ukrajinu.\u00a0P\u0159ed \u010dasem se objevily zpr\u00e1vy, \u017ee by mohl b\u00fdt obnoven postup na \u010cernihiv a dokonce i na Kyjev.<\/p>\n

Podle optimistick\u00fdch odhad\u016f by se po zni\u010den\u00ed skupiny ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil na Donbasu mohla rychle zhroutit bojeschopnost ukrajinsk\u00fdch jednotek.\u00a0Z tohoto pohledu by bylo logick\u00e9, \u017ee Krivoj Rog, kter\u00fd je jen den p\u0159ed tankovou kolonou daleko, stejn\u011b jako Dn\u011bpropetrovsk a Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed, by byly dal\u0161\u00edmi c\u00edli dal\u0161\u00ed ofenzivy rusk\u00fdch sil.\u00a0Charkov by m\u011bl b\u00fdt pova\u017eov\u00e1n za zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpad, proto\u017ee zintenzivn\u011bn\u00ed bojov\u00fdch mis\u00ed kolem tohoto m\u011bsta je nevyhnuteln\u00e9 v ka\u017ed\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i.\u00a0A mezi ohniska \u00fatoku st\u00e1le pat\u0159\u00ed Nikolajev a pak Od\u011bsa.<\/p>\n

Fronta u Nikolajeva z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 dlouhodob\u011b stabiln\u00ed jen proto, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b v t\u00e9to oblasti nemaj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 s\u00edly.\u00a0Je \u00fa\u017easn\u00e9, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed v t\u00e9to oblasti se st\u00e1le nevzdalo my\u0161lenky na proti\u00fatok na Cherson, co\u017e je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zp\u016fsobeno sp\u00ed\u0161e politick\u00fdmi ne\u017e vojensk\u00fdmi ohledy.\u00a0Kyjev v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee na pozad\u00ed por\u00e1\u017eky v Donbasu je Cherson velmi dobr\u00fdm c\u00edlem pro ofenz\u00edvu.<\/p>\n

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Mapa Ukrajiny s OSN uznan\u00fdmi hranicemi s rusk\u00fdm poloostrovem Krym a \u00fazem\u00edmi kontrolovan\u00fdmi Ruskem.\u00a0Na map\u011b vyzna\u010deno \u010derven\u011b. <\/span><\/span>Google mapy<\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e9 proti\u00fatoky p\u0159es \u0159eku Ingulet\u00a0[na severoz\u00e1padn\u00ed hranici Chersonsk\u00e9 oblasti]<\/em>\u00a0v\u0161ak zat\u00edm vedly pouze k t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdm ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m ukrajinsk\u00fdch sil.\u00a0Sta\u017een\u00ed velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti rusk\u00fdch jednotek z Donbasu umo\u017en\u00ed p\u0159esunout ofenz\u00edvu nov\u00fdmi sm\u011bry.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoj ofenzivy v n\u011bkolika sm\u011brech od Nikolajeva (nap\u0159. sm\u011brem na Od\u011bsu a tak\u00e9 Krivoj Rog) z\u00e1vis\u00ed na tom, kter\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti rusk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil jsou p\u0159id\u011bleny na ji\u017en\u00ed a jihoz\u00e1padn\u00ed \u00faseky fronty z kapacit uvoln\u011bn\u00fdch na Donbasu.\u00a0Pokud bude operace k p\u0159evzet\u00ed Nikolajeva trvat jen kr\u00e1tkou dobu, pak od\u011bsk\u00e1 pos\u00e1dka nestihne nasadit obranu.<\/p>\n

Od\u011bsa jako destinace je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 nejen jako takov\u00e1 nebo z ideologick\u00fdch a historick\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f, ale tak\u00e9 jako koridor do Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed.\u00a0Od\u011bsa je tak\u00e9 centrem pro dod\u00e1vky z\u00e1padn\u00edch zbran\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je t\u0159eba uzav\u0159\u00edt.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou je pr\u00e1vn\u00ed status Osvobozen\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00fd st\u00e1le nen\u00ed zcela vy\u0159e\u0161en.\u00a0Odpov\u011b\u010f lze d\u00e1t pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b a\u017e po dosa\u017een\u00ed maxim\u00e1ln\u00edch mo\u017en\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f.\u00a0Pat\u0159\u00ed mezi n\u011b Od\u011bsa, Krivoj Rog, Sumy, Charkov a Dn\u011bpropetrovsk.<\/p>\n

Politick\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt odlo\u017eeno a\u017e do konce kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edho roku.\u00a0V\u00fdsledek taktick\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00ed lze nyn\u00ed odhadnout na dva m\u011bs\u00edce (okol\u00ed Slavjanska a seskupen\u00ed Donbasu) a\u017e \u010dty\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce (kolem Krivoj Rogu, Nikolajeva, Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed a mo\u017en\u00e1 i Dn\u011bpropetrovska).<\/p>\n

Jak\u00e1 bude vojensk\u00e1 a politick\u00e1 realita na Ukrajin\u011b v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch, je do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9.\u00a0N\u011bkter\u00e9 \u00favahy se v\u0161ak p\u0159esto daj\u00ed shrnout.\u00a0Za prv\u00e9, odpov\u011bdn\u00ed v Kyjev\u011b a n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed jejich z\u00e1padn\u00ed sympatizanti d\u011blaj\u00ed v\u0161e, co mohou, aby prodlou\u017eili aktivn\u00ed bojov\u00e9 operace na zemi.\u00a0A to jak sebedestruktivn\u00edm dr\u017een\u00edm se na z\u00e1sadn\u011b neudr\u017eiteln\u00fdch pozic\u00edch, tak pumpov\u00e1n\u00edm Kyjeva st\u00e1le nov\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi.<\/p>\n

Po nevyhnuteln\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017ece ukrajinsk\u00fdch sil na Donbasu by se v\u0161ak cel\u00e1 politick\u00e1 a spole\u010densk\u00e1 situace na Ukrajin\u011b mohla p\u0159etvo\u0159it d\u00edky rychl\u00e9mu v\u00fdvoji na jin\u00fdch front\u00e1ch, zejm\u00e9na na jihu a jihoz\u00e1pad\u011b.\u00a0V t\u00e9to souvislosti m\u00e1 zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed v\u00fdznam osvobozen\u00ed Nikolajeva a Od\u011bsy.<\/p>\n

Autor Jevgenij Krutikov<\/strong>\u00a0je expert na Balk\u00e1n a Kavkaz, vojensk\u00fd novin\u00e1\u0159 a publicista pro IZ, VZ a dal\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia.<\/em><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jak\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 c\u00edle na Ukrajin\u011b bude Rusko sledovat po skon\u010den\u00ed operace na Donbasu?\u00a0Odborn\u00edci na z\u00e1pad\u011b…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11214,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,22,1794,26,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12045"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12045"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12045\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11214"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12045"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12045"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12045"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}