{"id":120161,"date":"2026-11-03T05:47:37","date_gmt":"2026-11-03T04:47:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=120161"},"modified":"2026-11-03T05:51:27","modified_gmt":"2026-11-03T04:51:27","slug":"michael-svatos-sokujici-pocetni-ztraty-ukrajinske-armady-provaleny-na-finske-universite-obrany","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/11\/03\/michael-svatos-sokujici-pocetni-ztraty-ukrajinske-armady-provaleny-na-finske-universite-obrany\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Svato\u0161: \u0160okuj\u00edc\u00ed po\u010detn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy provaleny na Finsk\u00e9 Universit\u011b Obrany!"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u0160okuj\u00edc\u00ed po\u010detn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy provaleny na Finsk\u00e9 Universit\u011b Obrany! Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da naopak tak\u0159ka beze ztr\u00e1t! T\u0159et\u00ed d\u00edl \u201cShoot-the-Archer\u201d!<\/h3>\n

(1)<\/strong><\/span> P\u0159ed p\u00e1r dny p\u0159edstavil renomovan\u00fd britsk\u00fd v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd expert doktor Alexander Grable na semin\u00e1\u0159i konan\u00e9m na Finsk\u00e9 N\u00e1rodn\u00ed Universit\u011b Obrany v Helsink\u00e1ch sv\u016fj rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd v\u00fdzkum na t\u00e9ma \u201cpravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 skute\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty Rusk\u00e9 a Ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy v letech 2022 a\u017e 2026\u201d, a zcela p\u0159i tomto sv\u00e9m vystoupen\u00ed pop\u0159el ust\u00e1len\u00fd narativ evropsk\u00e9ho mainstreamu, \u017ee Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da utrp\u011bla v boj\u00edch zna\u010dn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed po\u010dty padl\u00fdch, t\u011b\u017ece zran\u011bn\u00fdch, nebo jin\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem trvale vy\u0159azen\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, ne\u017e vojska Ukrajiny. (Grable vyu\u010duje na King\u2019s College London\u2019s Department of War Studies)<\/p>\n

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Alexander Grable PhD candidate<\/a>, vyu\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed na King\u2019s College London\u2019s Department of War Studies, p\u0159ednesl minul\u00fd t\u00fdden v Universit\u011b Obrany v Helsink\u00e1ch rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd refer\u00e1t o ztr\u00e1t\u00e1ch voj\u00e1k\u016f Rusk\u00e9 a Ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy v letech 2022 a\u017e 2026, a \u0161okoval \u2013 Ukrajinsk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty zna\u010dn\u011b p\u0159evy\u0161uj\u00ed Rusk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty!!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Hlavn\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011bry vystoupen\u00ed Alexandra Grable PhD candidate:<\/h4>\n

\u2013 Celkov\u00e9 po\u010detn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty Rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy budou s nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed zna\u010dn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e arm\u00e1dy Ukrajiny. Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da utrp\u011bla v \u0159ad\u011b bitev v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b ztr\u00e1ty a\u017e 5kr\u00e1t ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e vojska Ukrajiny. Nebo\u0165, rusk\u00e9 velen\u00ed p\u0159i \u0159ad\u011b obrann\u00fdch i \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch bitev po celou dobu v\u00e1lky pravideln\u011b \u0161et\u0159ilo \u017eivoty sv\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, a pos\u00edlalo je do \u00fatok\u016f v\u017edy, a\u017e d\u011blost\u0159electvem, \u010di drony zlikvidovalo v\u011bt\u0161inu br\u00e1n\u00edc\u00edch se ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f. Rusk\u00e9 velen\u00ed dokonce n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t st\u00e1hlo sv\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky do lep\u0161\u00edch obrann\u00fdch pozic, a dalo tak p\u0159ednost zp\u016fsoben\u00ed velk\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b, p\u0159ed ztr\u00e1tami vlastn\u00edch voj\u00e1k\u016f br\u00e1n\u00edc\u00edch nev\u00fdhodn\u00e9 pozice.<\/p>\n

\u2013 Z\u00e1padn\u00ed narativ o vysok\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t\u00e1ch od\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00fd tvrzen\u00edm, \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 maj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty, proto\u017ee \u00fato\u010d\u00ed, a Ukrajinci ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty, proto\u017ee se br\u00e1n\u00ed, zcela odporuje historick\u00fdm skute\u010dnostem. Grable argumentoval bitvou o Malmaison 1917, p\u0159i n\u00ed\u017e zna\u010dn\u00e1 palebn\u00e1 p\u0159evaha francouzsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy, zejm\u00e9na jej\u00ed d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00e1 bar\u00e1\u017e proti p\u0159\u00edstupov\u00fdm komunikac\u00edm n\u011bmeck\u00fdch z\u00e1loh na boji\u0161t\u011b zp\u016fsobila \u0161okuj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdsledek, za t\u0159i dny p\u0159i sv\u00e9m \u00fatoku Francouzi zlikvidovali 50 000 N\u011bmc\u016f, a sami utrp\u011bli ztr\u00e1ty pouze 14 000 mu\u017e\u016f. Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da m\u00e1 p\u0159itom na sou\u010dasn\u00e9m boji\u0161ti celou dobu v\u00e1lky n\u011bkolikan\u00e1sobnou p\u0159evahu v d\u011blost\u0159electvu, absolutn\u00ed v letectvu (klouzav\u00e9 bomby), a dr\u017e\u00ed i nyn\u00ed po ukrajinsk\u00e9m zlep\u0161en\u00ed st\u00e1le m\u00edrnou p\u0159evahu ve frontov\u00fdch dronech. Proto\u017ee Rusov\u00e9 \u00fato\u010d\u00ed celou dobu v\u00e1lky a\u017e po zni\u010den\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch obrann\u00fdch pozic, bude celkov\u00fd pom\u011br ztr\u00e1t nikoli v ukrajinsk\u00fd prosp\u011bch, a to ani v celkov\u00fdch po\u010dtech, ani v procentu\u00e1ln\u00edch pom\u011brech.<\/p>\n

\u2013 Ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da zna\u010dn\u011b podhodnocuje sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty. Z posledn\u00edho zn\u00e1m\u00e9ho ofici\u00e1ln\u00edho po\u010dtu proveden\u00fdch amputac\u00ed kon\u010detin ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f (120 00) platn\u00e9ho k listopadu 2024 doktor Grable vyvodil, \u017ee do konce roku 2024 muselo padnout nejm\u00e9n\u011b 517 200 ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f. Doktor Grable pro v\u00fdpo\u010det pou\u017eil koeficient 1 amputace na 4.31 padl\u00e9ho voj\u00e1ka, kter\u00e1 vy\u0161la z rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch v\u00fdzkum\u016f o ztr\u00e1t\u00e1ch americk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy ve v\u00e1lk\u00e1ch veden\u00fdch po konci studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. A z\u00e1rove\u0148 dodal, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da nem\u00e1 stejn\u011b dobr\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 zdravotnictv\u00ed, jako arm\u00e1da USA, a proto skute\u010dn\u00fd po\u010det padl\u00fdch ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f by m\u011bl b\u00fdt je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

(P\u0159epo\u010detl jsem tyto \u00fadaje k 1. listopadu 2026, a v\u00fdpo\u010dtem mi vy\u0161lo, \u017ee by k tomuto datu m\u011blo padnout 1.341 milionu ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, pokud se po\u010det amputac\u00ed od listopadu 2024 vyv\u00edjel zcela line\u00e1rn\u011b. Vzhledem k r\u016fstu po\u010dt\u016f dron\u016f, a ke sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed po\u010dt\u016f voj\u00e1k\u016f na frontov\u00e9 linii, tomu tak v\u0161ak nebude. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b, v\u00edce ne\u017e 1.341 milionu Ukrajinc\u016f by zat\u00edm padnout v boj\u00edch rozhodn\u011b nem\u011blo.)<\/p>\n

Cel\u00e9 vystoupen\u00ed doktora Grable si m\u016f\u017eete p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst v angli\u010dtin\u011b v PDF zde<\/a>, je od strany 147 do strany 174, nebo si ho v jin\u00e9 verzi poslechnout zde na YouTube<\/a>. D\u011bkuji takt\u00e9\u017e jednomu \u010dten\u00e1\u0159i za upozorn\u011bn\u00ed na toto jeho vystoupen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

(2)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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V noci na dne\u0161ek doch\u00e1zelo na p\u0159edm\u011bst\u00ed Kyjeva \u201cPetropavlivska Borshchahivka\u201d k poty\u010dk\u00e1m mezi demonstranty a p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edky jednotek AZOV. Demonstranti se pokou\u0161eli osvobodit ukrajinsk\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky \u00fadajn\u011b \u201cmu\u010den\u00e9\u201d a \u201cn\u00e1sil\u00edm dr\u017een\u00e9\u201d p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edky AZOV v jejich tajn\u00fdch kas\u00e1rn\u00e1ch v Petropavlivsk\u00e9 Borshchahivce. Na m\u00edsto p\u0159ijel dokonce gener\u00e1l Budanov, a dal\u0161\u00ed Zelensk\u00e9ho vysoc\u00ed poh\u016fnci.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

V noci na dne\u0161ek do\u0161lo na Ukrajin\u011b k z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9mu incidentu. Na p\u0159edm\u011bst\u00ed Kyjeva \u201cPetropavlivska Borshchahivka\u201d, mapa se otev\u0159e zde<\/a>, se shrom\u00e1\u017edil dav, a pokusil se n\u00e1sil\u00edm \u201cosvobodit\u201d uv\u011bzn\u011bn\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky, kter\u00e9 tam m\u011bli mu\u010dit p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edci sboru AZOV.<\/p>\n

O tom, jak je nyn\u00ed \u201cmu\u010den\u00ed\u201d n\u00e1sil\u00edm zadr\u017eovan\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f na Ukrajin\u011b vzn\u011btliv\u00e9 t\u00e9ma, sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed, \u017ee se na m\u00edsto t\u011bchto poty\u010dek \u201csboru AZOV\u201d s \u201cdemonstranty\u201d osobn\u011b ve 22 hodin ve\u010der dostavil gener\u00e1l Budanov, a dal\u0161\u00ed gener\u00e1lov\u00e9. A \u017ee bylo \u201czah\u00e1jeno\u201d vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto \u201c\u00fadajn\u00e9ho mu\u010den\u00ed\u201d. A \u017ee \u201c\u010dty\u0159i zran\u011bn\u00ed voj\u00e1ci, kte\u0159\u00ed tam m\u011bli b\u00fdt mu\u010deni, byli p\u0159evezeni do nemocnice\u201d. A \u017ee vy\u0161lo najevo, \u017ee v tomto m\u00edst\u011b sbor AZOV zadr\u017eoval \u201cpochytan\u00e9 dezert\u00e9ry\u201d ur\u010den\u00e9 k p\u0159ev\u00fdchov\u011b.<\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 a ukrajinsk\u00e9 telegramov\u00e9 kan\u00e1ly nav\u00edc od p\u016flnoci \u0161\u00ed\u0159ily \u201c\u00fadajn\u00e1 videa\u201d zachycuj\u00edc\u00ed \u201c\u00fadajn\u00fd\u201d v\u00fdvoj incidentu v \u201cPetropavlivsk\u00e9 Borshchahivce\u201d v dob\u011b po odjezdu gener\u00e1la Budanova a kamer kyjevsk\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed. A podle t\u011bchto z\u00e1b\u011br\u016f se m\u011bli na m\u00edsto tohoto incidentu po p\u016flnoci dostavit fa\u0161istick\u00e9 boj\u016fvky AZOV, a jejich p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edci za\u010dali brut\u00e1ln\u011b \u0159ezat demonstranty. Pravdivost t\u011bchto vide\u00ed \u2013 t\u0159eba zde<\/a> a zde<\/a> \u2013 ov\u0161em do 04.00 dnes r\u00e1no \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd ukrajinsk\u00fd zcela relevantn\u00ed zdroj zat\u00edm nepotvrdil. Kyjevsk\u00e1 mainstreamov\u00e1 m\u00e9dia v\u010dera pozd\u011b ve\u010der p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u011bla<\/a>,\u00a0 \u017ee je st\u00e1le nejasn\u00e9, zda \u00fa\u0159ady hodlaj\u00ed tento incident poctiv\u011b vy\u0161et\u0159it, a nebo zmanipulovat ve prosp\u011bch AZOV.<\/p>\n

Tento incident na p\u0159edm\u011bst\u00ed Kyjeva, respektive dal\u0161\u00ed budouc\u00ed takov\u00e9to incidenty po cel\u00e9 Ukrajin\u011b, p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011bry refer\u00e1tu Alexandra Grable na Helsinsk\u00e9 Universit\u011b Obrany. N\u00e1znaky, \u017ee ztr\u00e1ty Ukrajiny se u\u017e bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed k hranici tzv. Kinunnenova parametru<\/a>, po n\u011bm\u017e se v\u017edy ka\u017ed\u00fd re\u017eim vedouc\u00ed v\u00e1lku za\u010dne rychle hroutit, se u\u017e mno\u017e\u00ed. A\u010dkoli Grable vysloven\u011b uvedl, \u017ee p\u0159esn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty Ukrajiny jsou d\u016fsledn\u011b tajeny, a nelze je p\u0159esn\u011b ur\u010dit, z Kinnunenova parametru a refer\u00e1tu doktora Grable je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee Rusko se p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed Kinnuneova parametru nemus\u00ed nijak je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bkolik let ob\u00e1vat, kde\u017eto Ukrajina se u\u017e pohybuje velmi bl\u00edzko jeho hranice, respektive u\u017e mo\u017en\u00e1 i za n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoj v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b tak letos na podzim st\u00e1le jasn\u011bji sm\u011b\u0159uje v rozhodn\u00fd rusk\u00fd prosp\u011bch. A tento v\u00fdvoj lze obr\u00e1tit pouze v\u00fdraznou zm\u011bnou pr\u016fb\u011bhu v\u00e1lky, a proto Kyjev a Brusel podle v\u0161eho chystaj\u00ed proti Rusku operaci \u201cShoot-the-Archer\u201d. A ta m\u016f\u017ee rozpoutat jadernou v\u00e1lku v Evrop\u011b. Slibovan\u00fd technick\u00fd popis t\u00e9to operace snad u\u017e dokon\u010d\u00edm z\u00edtra. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b dne\u0161n\u00ed anal\u00fdza o v\u00fdpo\u010dtech Alexandra Grable a incidentu v Kyjev\u011b zapad\u00e1 p\u0159esn\u011b do sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, podle kter\u00e9ho u\u017e Ukrajina bu\u010f p\u0159ijme rusk\u00e9 m\u00edrov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky, nebo zkolabuje a rozpadne se v \u00fapln\u00e9m vnit\u0159n\u00edm chaosu, a nebo spust\u00ed operaci \u201cZast\u0159elit Lu\u010di\u0161tn\u00edka\u201d. Vyhl\u00eddky tedy nejsou vesel\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Michael Svato\u0161<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0160okuj\u00edc\u00ed po\u010detn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy provaleny na Finsk\u00e9 Universit\u011b Obrany! Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da naopak tak\u0159ka beze…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":41529,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,80,22,26,2369],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120161"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=120161"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120161\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41529"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=120161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=120161"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=120161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}